Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

Economic significance and environmental impacts of the Song Dam Drinking Water Project(SDDWP)in Garhwal Himalaya

With the population growth through natural growth and migration,coupled with the city expansion,it is the fact that Dehradun City in India faces severe water scarcity.Therefore,the Song Dam Drinking Water Project(SDDWP)is proposed to provide ample drinking water to Dehradun City and its suburban areas.This paper examined economic significance and environmental impacts of the SDDWP in Garhwal Himalaya,India.To conduct this study,we collected data from both primary and secondary sources.There are 12 villages and 3 forest divisions in the surrounding areas of the proposed dam project,of which 3 villages will be fully submerged and 50 households will be affected.For this study,50 heads of the households were interviewed in the 3 submerged villages.The questions mainly focused on economic significance,environmental impacts,and rehabilitation issues of the dam project.The findings of this study indicate that economic significance of the dam project is substantial,including providing ample water for drinking and irrigation,contributing to groundwater recharge,creating job opportunities,and promoting the development of tourism and fisheries in the Doon Valley.In terms of the rehabilitation of the affected people,there are only 50 households in need of rehabilitation.Currently,the arable land of these affected people is not sufficient to sustain their livelihoods.The entire landscape is fragile,rugged,and precipitous;therefore,the affected people are willing to rehabilitate to more suitable areas in the Doon Valley.Moreover,it is essential to provide them with sufficient compensation packages including the compensation of arable land,houses,cash,common property resources,institutions,belongingness,and cultural adaptation.On the other hand,the proposed dam project will have adverse environmental impacts including arable land degradation,forest degradation,loss of fauna and flora,soil erosion,landslides,and soil siltation.These impacts will lead to the ecological imbalances in both upstream and downstream areas.This study suggests that the affected people should be given sufficient compensation packages in all respects.Afforestation programs can be launched in the degraded areas to compensate for the loss of forest in the affected areas.

Water Environmental Impact Assessment and Analysis of Foshan Brewery Project

In recent years, the beer industry is a biological food industry that consumes a lot of water, and it has developed rapidly in China. The sewage discharged from the mass production of beer poses a huge threat to the environment. In order to evaluate and better solve the possible environmental impacts of beer treatment engineering projects, a brewery project in Foshan City is taken as an example to investigate the water pollution generation links of the engineering process including surface water and groundwater. According to the relevant technical methods and standards, water pollution factors are screened, and concentration and discharge are monitored. Through comprehensive analysis, predictive evaluation is obtained. It is confirmed that the project meets the requirements of national laws and regulations and environmental protection standards.

A CFD Model to Evaluate Near-Surface Oil Spill from a Broken Loading Pipe in Shallow Coastal Waters

Oil spills continue to generate various issues and concerns regarding their effect and behavior in the marine environment,owing to the related potential for detrimental environmental,economic and social implications.It is essential to have a solid understanding of the ways in which oil interacts with the water and the coastal ecosystems that are located nearby.This study proposes a simplified model for predicting the plume-like transport behavior of heavy Bunker C fuel oil discharging downward from an acutely-angled broken pipeline located on the water surface.The results show that the spill overall profile is articulated in three major flow areas.The first,is the source field,i.e.,a region near the origin of the initial jet,followed by the intermediate or transport field,namely,the region where the jet oil flow transitions into an underwater oil plume flow and starts to move horizontally,and finally,the far-field,where the oil re-surface and spreads onto the shore at a significant distance from the spill site.The behavior of the oil in the intermediate field is investigated using a simplified injection-type oil spill model capable of mimicking the undersea trapping and lateral migration of an oil plume originating from a negatively buoyant jet spill.A rectangular domain with proper boundary conditions is used to implement the model.The Projection approach is used to discretize a modified version of the Navier-Stokes equations in two dimensions.A benchmark fluid flow issue is used to verify the model and the results indicate a reasonable relationship between specific gravity and depth as well as agreement with the aerial data and a vertical temperature profile plot.

Target Detection on Water Surfaces Using Fusion of Camera and LiDAR Based Information

To address the challenges of missed detections in water surface target detection using solely visual algorithms in unmanned surface vehicle(USV)perception,this paper proposes a method based on the fusion of visual and LiDAR point-cloud projection for water surface target detection.Firstly,the visual recognition component employs an improved YOLOv7 algorithmbased on a self-built dataset for the detection of water surface targets.This algorithm modifies the original YOLOv7 architecture to a Slim-Neck structure,addressing the problemof excessive redundant information during feature extraction in the original YOLOv7 network model.Simultaneously,this modification simplifies the computational burden of the detector,reduces inference time,and maintains accuracy.Secondly,to tackle the issue of sample imbalance in the self-built dataset,slide loss function is introduced.Finally,this paper replaces the original Complete Intersection over Union(CIoU)loss function with the Minimum Point Distance Intersection over Union(MPDIoU)loss function in the YOLOv7 algorithm,which accelerates model learning and enhances robustness.To mitigate the problem of missed recognitions caused by complex water surface conditions in purely visual algorithms,this paper further adopts the fusion of LiDAR and camera data,projecting the threedimensional point-cloud data from LiDAR onto a two-dimensional pixel plane.This significantly reduces the rate of missed detections for water surface targets.

Study on Safeguard System of Eco-tourism Compensation of Hukou Section during Ecological Water-control Project of Poyang Lake

Through analysis on the background to develop eco-tourism and necessity for ecological compensation,based on specific condition of Hukou County,in line with the situation to develop eco-tourism during ecological water control project of Poyang Lake,residents' interest protection system and ecological benefit safeguard system for eco-tourism compensation were put forward.

Projection pursuit cluster model and its application in water quality assessment

One of the difficulties frequently encountered in water quality assessment is that there are many factors and they cannot be assessed according to one factor, all the effect factors associated with water quality must be used. In order to overcome this issues the projection pursuit principle is introduced into water quality assessment, and projection pursuit cluster(PPC) model is developed in this study. The PPC model makes the transition from high dimension to one-dimension. In other words, based on the PPC model, multifactor problem can be converted to one factor problem. The application of PPC model can be divided into four parts: (1) to estimate projection index function Q(); (2) to find the right projection direction ; (3) to calculate projection characteristic value of the i th sample z-i, and (4) to draw comprehensive analysis on the basis of z-i. On the other hand, the empirical formula of cutoff radius R is developed, which is benefit for the model to be used in practice. Finally, a case study of water quality assessment is proposed in this paper. The results showed that the PPC model is reasonable, and it is more objective and less subjective in water quality assessment. It is a new method for multivariate problem comprehensive analysis.

Impact of the eastern water diversion from the south to the north project on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in China

The south to the north project (WDP) on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is studied by the improved three-dimensionai (3D) numerical model.The net unit width flux in the Changjiang Estuary as well as the sectional salt flux is calculated in the North Branch (NB),the South Branch (SB),the North Channel (NC),the South Channel (SC),the North Passage (NP) and the South Passage (SP),respectively.The net seaward water flux in the SB is reduced,and the net water flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is enhanced after the eastern WDP.Under the mean river discharge condition in the dry season,the net salt flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is increased by 2.09 t/s and 0.52 t/s during the spring and neap tides,respectively,due to the eastern WDP.The saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is enhanced by the eastern WDP.Compared with that during the spring tide,the net water diversion ratio during the neap tide in the NC is smaller,and thus the enhancement of the saltwater intrusion by the eastern WDP is smaller in the NC,and larger in the NP and the SP.The tidally averaged surface salinity at the water intakes of the Dongfengxisha Reservoir,the Chenhang Reservoir and the Qingcaosha Reservoir rises both during the spring and neap tides.

Spatio-temporal distribution of phytoplankton in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, a water source area for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (Middle Route), China

One of the water source areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is the Danjiangkou Reservoir （DJKR）. To understand seasonal variation in phytoplankton composition, abundance and distribution in the DJKR area before water diversion, as well as to estimate potential risks of water quality after water diversion, we conducted an investigation on phytoplankton in the DJKR from August 2008 to May 2009. The investigation included 10 sampling sites, each with four depths of 0.5, 5, 10, and 20 m. In this study, 117 taxa belonging to 76 genera were identified, consisting of diatoms （39 taxa）, green algae （47 taxa）, blue-green algae （19 taxa）, and others （12 taxa）. Annual average phytoplankton abundance was 2.01×10^6 ind./L, and the highest value was 14.72 ×10^6 ind/L （at site 3 in August 2008）. Phytoplankton abundance in front of the Danjiangkou Dam （DJKD） was higher than that of the Danjiang Reservoir Basin. Phytoplankton distribution showed a vertical declining trend from 0.5 m to 20 m at most sites in August 2008 （especially at sites of 1, 2, 4 and 10）, but no distinct pattern in other sampling months. In December 2008 and March 2009, Stephanodiseus sp. was the most abundant species, amounting to 55.23% and 72.34%, respectively. We propose that high abundance ofStephanodiscus sp. may have contributed greatly to the frequent occurrence of Stephanodiscus sp. blooms in middle-low reaches of the Hanjiang River during the early spring of 2009. In comparison with previous studies conducted from 1992 to 2006, annual average phytoplankton density, green algae and blue-green algae species, as well as major nutrient concentrations increased, while phytoplankton diversity indices declined. This indicates a gradual decline in water quality. More research should be conducted and countermeasures taken to prevent further deterioration of water quality in the DJKR.

Joint optimization scheduling for water conservancy projects incomplex river networks

In this study, we simulated water flow in a water conservancy project consisting of various hydraulic structures, such as sluices, pumping stations, hydropower stations, ship locks, and culverts, and developed a multi-period and multi-variable joint optimization scheduling model for flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In this model, the number of sluice holes, pump units, and hydropower station units to be opened were used as decision variables, and different optimization objectives and constraints were considered. This model was solved with improved genetic algorithms and verified using the Huaian Water Conservancy Project as an example. The results show that the use of the joint optimization scheduling led to a 10% increase in the power generation capacity and a 15% reduction in the total energy consumption. The change in the water level was reduced by 0.25 m upstream of the Yundong Sluice, and by 50% downstream of pumping stations No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4. It is clear that the joint optimization scheduling proposed in this study can effectively improve power generation capacity of the project, minimize operating costs and energy consumption, and enable more stable operation of various hydraulic structures. The results may provide references for the management of water conservancy projects in complex river networks.

Critical chain construction with multi-resource constraints based on portfolio technology in South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.

Assessment of impact of water diversion projects on ecological water uses in arid region

In arid regions, large-scale water diversion from rivers leads to significant changes in river flow regimes, which may have large impacts on ecological water uses of river-dependent ecosystems, such as river, lake, wetland, and riparian ecosystems. To assess the integrated impact of water diversion on ecological water uses, we proposed a hierarchy evaluation model composed of four layers representing the evaluation goal, sub-areas of the influenced region, evaluation criteria, and water diversion schemes, respectively. The evaluation criteria for different types of ecological water uses were proposed, and the analytical hierarchy process was used for the integrated assessment. For a river ecosystem, the percentage of mean annual flow was used to define the grade of environmental flow. For a lake ecosystem, water recharge to the lake to compensate the lake water losses was used to assess the ecological water use of a lake. The flooding level of the wetland and the groundwater level in the riparian plain were used to assess the wetland and riparian ecological water uses, respectively. The proposed model was applied to a basin in northern Xinjiang in northwest China, where both water diversion and inter-basin water transfer projects were planned to be carried out. Based on assessment results for the whole study area and two sub-areas, an appropriate scheme was recommended from four planning schemes. With the recommended scheme, ecological water uses of the influenced ecosystems can be maintained at an acceptable level. Meanwhile, economical water requirements can be met to a great extent.

Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster Model and its Application to Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation

The research shows that projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model is able to form a suitable index for overcom-ing the difficulties in comprehensive evaluation, which can be used to analyze complex multivariate prob-lems. The PPC model is widely used in multifactor cluster and evaluation analysis, but there are a few prob-lems needed to be solved in practice, such as cutoff radius parameter calibration. In this study, a new model-projection pursuit dynamic cluster (PPDC) model-based on projection pursuit principle is developed and used in water resources carrying capacity evaluation in China for the first time. In the PPDC model, there are two improvements compared with the PPC model, 1) a new projection index is constructed based on dynamic cluster principle, which avoids the problem of parameter calibration in the PPC model success-fully;2) the cluster results can be outputted directly according to the PPDC model, but the cluster results can be got based on the scatter points of projected characteristic values or the re-analysis for projected character-istic values in the PPC model. The results show that the PPDC model is a very effective and powerful tool in multifactor data exploratory analysis. It is a new method for water resources carrying capacity evaluation. The PPDC model and its application to water resources carrying capacity evaluation are introduced in detail in this paper.

Critical discharge at Datong for controlling operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in dry seasons

Previous research shows that there is a strong correlation between saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and discharge at Datong. In the near future, the discharge of the Yangtze River during dry seasons will decrease due to the construction and operation of large water diversion projects, including the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which will further exacerbate saltwater intrusion in the estuary. In this paper, a nested 1D river network model and a 2D saltwater numerical model are used to associate saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary with different values of discharge at Datong. It is concluded that 13 000 m3/s is the critical discharge at Datong for preventing saltwater intrusion and controlling the volume of water transferred by the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Furthermore, based on the analysis of river discharge from Datong to Xuliujing and in consideration of the influence of all of the water diversion projects, operation schemes are proposed for the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project for different hydrological years.

Evaluation index system for positive operation of water conservancy projects

The conditions for the positive operation of water conservancy projects are described in this paper. A scientific and effective evaluation index system was established based on frequency analysis, theoretical analysis, and expert consultation. This evaluation index system can be divided into six first-level indices： the degree to which facilities are intact and functionality standards are reached, the status of operation and management funds, the rationality and degree of advancement of the management team structure, the adaptability and rationality of the water conservancy project management system, the degree of automatization and informationization of the management techniques, and the conduciveness of the exterior environment. The weights for evaluation indices were obtained through the analytic hierarchy process method with consideration of the difference between public welfare and profit-oriented water conservancy projects. This study provides a scientific method for evaluating the positive operation of water conservancy projects.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

Impact of hydroelectric projects on river environment: Analysis of water quality changes in Ningxia Reach of Yellow River

In this paper, the relationship between hydroelectric projects and the river environment is analyzed. Recently, the large-scale regulation of runoff by large hydroelectric projects in the Ningxia Reach of the Yellow River has altered natural runoff processes, causing an increase in the probability of low discharge and an overall adjustment of riverbed evolution and river characteristics. During low-flow years, the combined effects of these two changes can weaken the self-purification capacity and reduce the water environmental capacity of the river. This is one of the main reasons for the recent decrease of water quality in the Ningxia Reach. This research shows that it is necessary to implement river training projects to maintain stable flow paths, not only for adjusting river regimes and for flood control, but also for increasing the self-purification capacity and the water environmental capacity of the river. Methods and proposals for coordinating the operation of hydroelectric projects with the protection of the river environment are presented in the interest of promoting sustainable development.

Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Evolution trend of the water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project in China

To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake.

θ-improved limited tolerance relation model of incomplete information system for evaluation of water conservancy project management modernization

The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological effects, and so on. However, indices for evaluating the modernization of water conservancy project management are usually unobtainable in practical applications. Conducting appropriate extension of the classical rough set theory and then applying it to an incomplete information system are the key to the application of the rough set theory Based on analysis of some extended rough set models in incomplete information systems, a rough set model based on the θ-improved limited tolerance relation is put forward. At the same time, upper approximation and lower approximation are defined under this improved relation. According to the evaluation index system and management practices, the threshold for θ is defined. An example study indicates the practicability and maneuverability of the model.