Sensitivity analysis of spacecraft in micrometeoroids and orbital debris environment based on panel method

To reduce the risk of mission failure caused by the MM/OD impact of the spacecraft,it is necessary to optimize the design of the spacecraft.Spacecraft survivability assessment is the key technology in the optimal design of spacecraft.Spacecraft survivability assessment includes spacecraft impact sensitivity analysis and spacecraft component vulnerability analysis under MM/OD environment.The impact sensitivity refers to the probability of a spacecraft encountering an MM/OD impact while in orbit.Vulnerability refers to the probability that each component of a spacecraft may fail or malfunction when impacted by space debris.Yet this paper mainly analyzes the impact sensitivity and proposes a spacecraft sensitivity assessment method under the MM/OD environment based on a panel method.Under this panel method,a spacecraft geometric model is discretized into small panels,and whether they are impacted by MM/OD or not is determined through the analysis of the shielding or shadowing relationships between panels.The number of impacts on each panel is obtained through calculation,and accordingly the probability of each spacecraft component encountering MM/OD impact can be acquired,thus generating the impact sensibility.This paper extracts data from the NASA’s ORDEM2000,the ESA’s MASTER8 as well as the SDEEM2015(Space Debris Environmental Engineering Model developed by HIT),and uses the PCHIP(Piecewise Cubic Hermite Interpolating Polynomial)method to interpolate and fit the size-flux relationship of space debris.Compared with linear interpolation and cubic spline interpolation,the fitting results through the method are relatively more accurate.The feasibility of this method is also demonstrated through two actual examples shown in this paper,whose results are close to those from ESABASE,although there are some minor errors mainly due to different debris data input.Through the cross-check by three risk assessment software-BUMPER,MDPANTO and MODAOST-under standard operating conditions,the feasibility of this method is again verified.

Application of the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing(FAST)method to inflated,axial stretched,and residually stressed cylinders

This paper is dedicated to applying the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(FAST)method to the problem of mixed extension and inflation of a circular cylindrical tube in the presence of residual stresses.The metafunctions and the Ishigami function are considered in the sensitivity analysis(SA).The effects of the input variables on the output variables are investigated,and the most important parameters of the system under the applied pressure and axial force such as the axial stretch and the azimuthal stretch are determined.

Sensitivity analysis of factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along a foundation surface using Sobol method

The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along the foundation surface.According to the design specifications,the loads and factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam were comprehensively selected.Afterwards,the sensitivity of the factors was preliminarily analyzed using the Sobol method with Latin hypercube sampling.Then,the results of the sensitivity analysis were verified with those obtained using the Garson method.Finally,the effects of different sampling methods,probability distribution types of factor samples,and ranges of factor values on the analysis results were evaluated.A case study of a typical gravity dam in Yunnan Province of China showed that the dominant factors affecting the gravity dam anti-sliding stability were the anti-shear cohesion,upstream and downstream water levels,anti-shear friction coefficient,uplift pressure reduction coefficient,concrete density,and silt height.Choice of sampling methods showed no significant effect,but the probability distribution type and the range of factor values greatly affected the analysis results.Therefore,these two elements should be sufficiently considered to improve the reliability of the dam anti-sliding stability analysis.

Advanced method to estimate reliability-based sensitivity of mechanical components with strongly nonlinear performance function

Based on the random perturbation technique for reliability sensitivity design,some realistic reliability-based sensitivity issues are discussed,some of which have a structure of high nonlinear performance functions.Combining the related theories of the moment method of the reliability analysis,the matrix differential,and the Kronecker algebra,the reliability-based sensitivity method based on the perturbation method is modified if the first four moments of random variables are given.Meanwhile,a reliability-based sensitivity computation method is proposed.Some examples are used to show that using this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the reliability-based sensitivity computation and offer a reliable theoretic basis in engineering.

Response Sensitivity Analysis of the Dynamic Milling Process Based on the Numerical Integration Method

As one of the bases of gradient-based optimization algorithms, sensitivity analysis is usually required to calculate the derivatives of the system response with respect to the machining parameters. The most widely used approaches for sensitivity analysis are based on time-consuming numerical methods, such as finite difference methods. This paper presents a semi-analytical method for calculation of the sensitivity of the stability boundary in milling. After transforming the delay-differential equation with time-periodic coefficients governing the dynamic milling process into the integral form, the Floquet transition matrix is constructed by using the numerical integration method. Then, the analytical expressions of derivatives of the Floquet transition matrix with respect to the machining parameters are obtained. Thereafter, the classical analytical expression of the sensitivity of matrix eigenvalues is employed to calculate the sensitivity of the stability lobe diagram. The two-degree-of-freedom milling example illustrates the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. Compared with the existing methods, the unique merit of the proposed method is that it can be used for analytically computing the sensitivity of the stability boundary in milling, without employing any finite difference methods. Therefore, the high accuracy and high efficiency are both achieved. The proposed method can serve as an effective tool for machining parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis in high-speed milling.

A SEMI-ANALYTICAL AND SEMI-NUMERICAL METHOD FOR SOLVING 2-D SOUND-STRUCTURE INTERACTION PROBLEMS

Based on the transfer matrix method and the virtual source simulation technique, this paper proposes a novel semi-analytical and semi-numerical method for solving 2-D sound- structure interaction problems under a harmonic excitation.Within any integration segment, as long as its length is small enough,along the circumferential curvilinear coordinate,the non- homogeneous matrix differential equation of an elastic ring of complex geometrical shape can be rewritten in terms of the homogeneous one by the method of extended homogeneous capacity proposed in this paper.For the exterior fluid domain,the multi-circular virtual source simulation technique is adopted.The source density distributed on each virtual circular curve may be ex- panded as the Fourier's series.Combining with the inverse fast Fourier transformation,a higher accuracy and efficiency method for solving 2-D exterior Helmholtz's problems is presented in this paper.In the aspect of solution to the coupling equations,the state vectors of elastic ring induced by the given harmonic excitation and generalized forces of coefficients of the Fourier series can be obtained respectively by using a high precision integration scheme combined with the method of extended homogeneous capacity put forward in this paper.According to the superposition princi- ple and compatibility conditions at the interface between the elastic ring and fluid,the algebraic equation of system can be directly constructed by using the least square approximation.Examples of acoustic radiation from two typical fluid-loaded elastic rings under a harmonic concentrated force are presented.Numerical results show that the method proposed is more efficient than the mixed FE-BE method in common use.

Cavity noise sensitivity analysis of tire contour design factors and application of contour optimization methodology

Cavity resonance noise of passenger car tires is generated by interacting excitation between a tire structure and the fill gas (air), and generally lies in a frequency range of 200?250 Hz. As such, this noise is strongly perceived and may be a serious source of driver annoyance. Thus, many studies regarding the cavity noise mechanism and its reduction have already been conducted. In this work, a vibro-acoustic coupled analysis was conducted between a tire structure and air cavity. Using this analysis, we can more accurately simulate the tire noise performance in the region of the cavity resonance frequency. An analysis of the effects of variation of tire contour design factors was conducted, using design-of-experiments methods. Finally, a multi-objective optimization was performed using in-house codes to reduce the cavity noise level while minimizing the loss of other performances, such as diminished ride comfort and handling caused by the variations of contour. As a result of this optimization, an optimized contour shape was derived, which satisfied the multi-objective performances.

Impact and Friction Sensitivity of Energetic Materials：Methodical Evaluation of Technological Safety Features

Key methods developed and used in the USSR and in the Russian Federation to determine the impact and friction sensitivity of energetic materials and explosives have been discussed.Experimental methodologies and instruments that underlie the assessment of their production and handling safety have been described.Studies of a large number of compounds have revealed relationships between their sensitivity parameters and structure of individual compounds and compositions.The range of change of physical and chemical characteristics for the compounds we examined covers the entire region of their existence.Theoretical methodology and equations have been formulated to estimate the impact and friction sensitivity parameters of energetic materials and to evaluate the technological safety in use.The developed methodology is characterized by high-accuracy calculations and prediction of sensitivity parameters.

Semi-analytical solution for internal forces of tunnel lining with multiple longitudinal cracks

Longitudinal cracks on the tunnel lining significantly influence the performance of tunnels in operation.In this study,we propose a semi-analytical method that provides a simple and effective way to calculate the internal forces of tunnel linings with multiple cracks.The semi-analytical solution is obtained using structural analysis considering the flexural rigidity for the cracked longitudinal section of the tunnel lining.Then the proposed solution is verified numerically.Using the proposed method,the influences of the crack depth and the number of cracks on the bending moment and modified crack tip stress are investigated.With the increase in crack depth,the bending moment of lining scetion adjacent to the crack decreases,while the bending moment of lining scetion far away from the crack increases slightly.The more the number of cracks in a tunnel lining,the easier the new cracks initiated.

THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE TOPOLOGY OPTIMIZATION BASED ON HOMOGENIZATION METHOD AND ITS SIZE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

With the development of satellite structure technology, more and more design parameters will affect its structural performance. It is desirable to obtain an optimal structure design with a minimum weight, including optimal configuration and sizes. The present paper aims to describe an optimization analysis for a satellite structure, including topology optimization and size optimization. Based on the homogenization method, the topology optimization is carried out for the main supporting frame of service module under given constraints and load conditions, and then the sensitivity analysis is made of 15 structural size parameters of the whole satellite and the optimal sizes are obtained. The numerical result shows that the present optimization design method is very effective.

A NOVEL SEMI-ANALYTICAL METHOD FOR SOLVING ACOUSTIC RADIATION FROM LONGITUDINALLY STIFFENED INFINITE NON-CIRCULAR CYLINDRICAL SHELLS IN WATER

Based on the extended homogeneous capacity high precision integration method and the spectrum method of virtual boundary with a complex radius vector, a novel semi-analytical method, which has satisfactory computation efectiveness and precision, is presented for solving the acoustic radiation from a submerged infnite non-circular cylindrical shell stifened by longitudinal ribs by means of the Fourier integral transformation and stationary phase method. In this work, besides the normal interacting force, which is commonly adopted by some researchers, the other interacting forces and moments between the longitudinal ribs and the non-circular cylindrical shell are considered at the same time. The efects of the number and the size of the cross-section of longitudinal ribs on the characteristics of acoustic radiation are investigated. Numerical results show that the method proposed is more efcient than the existing mixed FE-BE method.

Parameter sensitivity analysis for a biochemically-based photosynthesis model

A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed by stoma in leaves. In the photosynthesis module of these LSMs, variations of parameters arising from diversity in plant functional types(PFTs) and climate remain unclear. Identifying sensitive parameters among all photosynthetic parameters before parameter estimation can not only reduce operation cost, but also improve the usability of photosynthesis models worldwide. Here, we analyzed 13 parameters of a biochemically-based photosynthesis model(FvCB), implemented in many LSMs, using two sensitivity analysis(SA) methods(i.e., the Sobol’ method and the Morris method) for setting up the parameter ensemble. Three different model performance metrics, i.e.,Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE), and Standard Deviation(STDEV) were introduced for model assessment and sensitive parameters identification. The results showed that among all photosynthetic parameters only a small portion of parameters were sensitive, and the sensitive parameters were different across plant functional types: maximum rate of Rubisco activity(Vcmax25), maximum electron transport rate(Jmax25), triose phosphate use rate(TPU) and dark respiration in light(Rd) were sensitive in broad leafevergreen trees(BET), broad leaf-deciduous trees(BDT) and needle leaf-evergreen trees(NET), while only Vcmax25and TPU are sensitive in short vegetation(SV), dwarf trees and shrubs(DTS), and agriculture and grassland(AG). The two sensitivity analysis methods suggested a strong SA coherence;in contrast, different model performance metrics led to different SA results. This misfit suggests that more accurate values of sensitive parameters, specifically, species specific and seasonal variable parameters, are required to improve the performance of the FvCB model.

Assessment of immune responses and intestinal flora in BALB/c mice model of wheat food allergy via different sensitization methods

Increasing incidences showed that food allergies have attracted more and more attention from researchers.BALB/c mice were sensitized with wheat gluten combined with aluminum hydroxide adjuvant via intraperitoneal injection,transdermal sensitization,and oral gavage sensitization route.Results showed that all the three sensitization methods could induce allergic symptoms;increase the serum antibody(total immunoglobulin E(IgE),specific IgE,IgG,IgA)and histamine content;promote the secretion of Th2 cytokines(interleukin(IL)-4,IL-5,IL-13)and inflammatory factors(IL-6,IL-17 A,IL-10);and inhibit the production of Th1 cytokines(IFN-γ,IL-2).However,the allergic symptoms of mice sensitized by intraperitoneal injection were the most obvious among the three models.The level of serum antibodies in intraperitoneal injection group was significantly higher than control.Subsequently,16 S rRNA sequencing technology was used to analyze the intestinal flora of mice.The results showed that the abundance of Firmicutes in the wheat protein sensitized group was lower than that in the normal group,while the abundance of Bacteroidetes was higher,and Lactobacillus was the difference marker in normal group.Bacterial species diversity analysis showed that the species richness and diversity of intestinal flora in mice were decreased,the difference between mice induced by intraperitoneal injection and normal control group mice was the most significant.Taken together,these results show that among three sensitization methods used to build a mouse model with aluminum hydroxide as adjuvant,intraperitoneal injection is the comparably best way to build a mouse sensitization mode.

Nonlinear dynamic response and buckling of laminated cylindrical shells with axial shallow groove based on a semi-analytical method

The effect of axial shallow groove on the nonlinear dynamic response and buckling of laminated cylindrical shells subjected to radial compression loading was investigated. Based on the first-order shear deformation theory （FSDT）, the nonlinear dynamic equations involving the transverse shear deformation and initial geometric imperfections were derived with the Hamilton philosophy. The axial shallow groove of the laminated composite cylindrical shell was treated as the initial geometric imperfections in the dynamic equations. A semi-analytical method of expanding displacements and loads along the circumferential direction and employing the finite difference method along the axial direction and in the time domain is used to solve the governing equations and obtain the dynamic response of the laminated shell. The B-R criterion was employed to determine the critical loads of dynamic buckling of the shell. The effects of the parameters of the shallow groove on the dynamic response and buckling were discussed in this paper and the results show that the axial shallow grooves greatly affect the dynamic response and buckling.

A Fast Product of Conditional Reduction Method for System Failure Probability Sensitivity Evaluation

Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction method based on conditional probability theory is proposed to solve the sensitivity analysis based on the approximate analytic method.The relevant concepts are introduced to characterize the correlation between failure modes by the reliability index and correlation coefficient,and conditional normal fractile the for the multi-dimensional conditional failure analysis is proposed based on the two-dimensional normal distribution function.Thus the calculation of system failure probability can be represented as a summation of conditional probability terms,which is convenient to be computed by iterative solving sequentially.Further the system sensitivity solution is transformed into the derivation process of the failure probability correlation coefficient of each failure mode.Numerical examples results show that it is feasible to apply the idea of failure mode relevancy to failure probability sensitivity analysis,and it can avoid multi-dimension integral calculation and reduce complexity and difficulty.Compared with the product of conditional marginalmethod,a wider value range of correlation coefficient for reliability analysis is confirmed and an acceptable accuracy can be obtained with less computational cost.

Integrated Use of Alternative Methods for Evaluating the Skin Sensitization Potencies of Five Frequently Used Preservatives in Cosmetics

In vitro skin sensitization testing methods based on the adverse outcome pathway(AOP)were used to evaluate the skin sensitization potencies of 5 commonly used preservatives.According to the“2 out of 3”principle of the integrated approaches to testing and assessment(IATA)the direct peptide reactivity assay(DPRA)and the human cell line activation test(h-CLAT)were used to detect the preservatives commonly used in cosmetics,including phenoxyethanol.methyl paraben,propyl paraben,imidazolidinyl urea and DMDM hydantoin.The DPRA and the h-CLA were carried out according to the OEC442C and 442E guidelines,respectively.The results show that.phenoxyethanol and methyl paraben are both negative in DPRA and h-CLAT while imidazolidinyl urea and DMDM hydantoin are both positive in these two tests.Propyl paraben has negative result in DPRA but positive result in h-CLAT.Therefore,imidazolidiny urea and DMDM hydantoin are sensitizers,while phenoxyethanol and methylparaben are non-sensitizers.Taken animal and human data into consideration,it is predicted that propyl paraben should be a non-sensitizer.The combination of DPRA and h-CLAT can make up for the limitations of using a single method,and it is suitable for the preliminary screening of cosmetic raw materials according to skin sensitization.

Effect of lateral heterogeneity on 2-D Rayleigh wave ZH ratio sensitivity kernels based on the adjoint method: Synthetic and inversion examples

The ratio between vertical and radial amplitudes of Rayleigh waves(hereafter,the Rayleigh wave ZH ratio)is an important parameter used to constrain structures beneath seismic stations.Some previous studies have explored crust and upper mantle structures by joint inversion of the Rayleigh wave ZH ratio and surface wave dispersion.However,all these studies have used a 1-D depth sensitivity kernel,and this kernel may lack precision when the structure varies a great deal laterally.Here,we present a systematic investigation of the two-dimensional(2-D)Rayleigh wave ZH ratio kernel based on the adjoint-wavefield method and perform two synthetic tests using the new kernel.The 2-D ZH ratio kernel is consistent with the traditional 1-D sensitivity kernel but has an asymmetric pattern with a preferred orientation toward the source.The predominant effect caused by heterogeneity can clearly be seen from kernels calculated from models with 2-D heterogeneities,which confirms the necessity of using the new 2-D kernel in some complex regions.Inversion tests using synthetic data show that the 2-D ZH ratio kernel has the potential to resolve small anomalies as well as complex lateral structures.

Development and Verification of an SP3 Code Using Semi-Analytic Nodal Method for Pin-by-Pin Calculation

SP3 （simplified P3） theory is widely used in LWR （light water reactor） analyses to partly capture the transport effect, especially for pin-by-pin core analysis with pin size homogenization. In this paper, a SP3 code named STELLA is developed and verified at SNERDI （Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute）. For SP3 method, neutron transport equation can be transformed into two coupled equations in the same mathematical form as diffusion equation. In this work, SANM （semi-analytic nodal method） is used to solve diffusion-like equation, due to its easy to handle multi-group problem. Whole core nodal boundary net current coupling is used to improve convergence stability in SANM, instead of solving two-node problem. CMFD （coarse-mesh finite difference） acceleration method is employed for 0-th SP3 equation, which represents the neutron balance relationship. Three benchmarks are used to verify the SP3 code, STELLA. The first one is a self-defined one dimensional problem, which demonstrates SP3 method is extremely accurate, due to no academic approximation in one dimensional for SP3. The second one is a two dimensional one-group problem cited from Larsen＇s paper, which is usually used to verify and prove the SP3 code correct and accurate. And the third one is modified from 2D C5G7-MOX benchmark, whose numerical results indicate that STELLA is accurate and efficient in pin size level, compared to diffusion model.

Novel sensitivity analysis method and dynamics optimization for multiple launch rocket systems

This study establishes the launch dynamics method,sensitivity analysis method,and multiobjective dynamic optimization method for the dynamic simulation analysis of the multiple launch rocket system(MLRS)based on the Riccati transfer matrix method for multibody systems(RMSTMM),direct differentiation method(DDM),and genetic algorithm(GA),respectively.Results show that simulation results of the dynamic response agree well with test results.The sensitivity analysis method is highly programming,the matrix order is low,and the calculation time is much shorter than that of the Lagrange method.With the increase of system complexity,the advantage of a high computing speed becomes more evident.Structural parameters that have the greatest influence on the dynamic response include the connection stiffness between the pitching body and the rotating body,the connection stiffness between the rotating body and the vehicle body,and the connection stiffnesses among 14^(#),16^(#),and 17^(#)wheels and the ground,which are the optimization design variables.After optimization,angular velocity variances of the pitching body in the revolving and pitching directions are reduced by 97.84%and 95.22%,respectively.

Sensitivity Analysis for Epistemic Uncertain System Based on Sobol' Method

Considering the characteristics of sensitivity analysis in epistemic uncertain system,a new sensitivity analysis index based on Sobol' method was proposed. Then the index calculation method with single cycle Monte-Carlo sampling was studied, and an application was developed. Numerical examples show that,the new method could solve the system sensitivity analysis problem with mixed aleotory and epistemic uncertainties. In this method,aleotory uncertain parameters could be sampled randomly according their distributions, and need not be translated to evidence bodies.Epistemic uncertain parameters were sampled randomly based on evidence theory. Therefore the loss of information in the sampling process was small,and the shortcomings of the existing methods were overcome.