Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five "-stans": Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990 s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.

The Estimation of Soil Organic Matter Variation in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands Using Remote Sensing Data

Soil organic matter (SOM) is an important term to realize soil productivity and quality that is extremely influential on soil physical, chemical and biological processes;SOM is one of the key soil properties controlling nutrient budgets in agricultural production systems and is an important index of soil productivity. Remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used to assess organic matter in soil and determine the relationship between measures SOM in field and digital data to calculate or obtain the correlation coefficients applied to evaluate the strength and direction of the linear relationships. In this study Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and Bare Soil Index (BSI) were used. The results show that the relationship between vegetation indices (NDVI, SAVI) and SOM in whole study area was (R2 = 0.19, p 2 = 0.01, p 2 = 0.13, p 2 = 0.11, p < 0.05), soil organic carbon increases with increasing NDVI and decreasing BSI. NDVI, SAVI and BSI were considered a useful index to detect the spatial distribution of SOM concentrations and mapping using remote sensing data.

Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya

Agriculture in arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya is depends on seasonal characteristics of rainfall. This study seeks to distinguish components of regional climate variability, especially El Ni?o Southern Oscillation events and their impact on the growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Datasets used were: 1) rainfall (1961-2003) and 2) NDVI (1981-2003). Results indicate that climate variability is persistent in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya and continues to affect vegetation condition and consequently crop production. Correlation calculations between seasonal NDVI and rainfall shows that the October-December (OND) growing season is more reliable than March-May (MAM) season. Results show that observed biomass trends are not solely explained by rainfall variability but also changes in land cover and land use. Results show that El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in southeast Kenya vary in magnitude, both in time and space as is their impact on vegetation;and that variation in El Ni?o intensity is higher than during La Ni?a events. It is suggested that farmers should be encouraged to increase use of farm input in their agricultural enterprises during the OND season;particularly when above normal rains are forecast. The close relationship between rainfall and NDVI yield ground for improvement in the prediction of local level rainfall. Effective dissemination of this information to stakeholders will go along way to ameliorate the suffering of many households and enable government to plan ahead of a worse season. This would greatly reduce the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate related disasters by improving their management.

Magnitudes of Climate Variability and Changes over the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya between 1961 and 2013 Period

The magnitude and trend of temperature and rainfall extremes as indicators of climate variability and change were investigated in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of Kenya using in-situ measurements and gridded climate proxy datasets, and analysed using the Gaussian-Kernel analysis and the Mann-Kendall statistics. The results show that the maximum and minimum temperatures have been increasing, with warmer temperatures being experienced mostly at night time. The average change in the mean maximum and minimum seasonal surface air temperature for the region were 0.74°C and 0.60°C, respectively between the 1961-1990 and 1991-2013 periods. Decreasing but statistically insignificant trends in the seasonal rainfall were noted in the area, but with mixed patterns in variability. The March-April-May rainfall season indicated the highest decrease in the seasonal rainfall amounts. The southern parts of the region had a decreasing trend in rainfall that was greater than that of the northern areas. The results of this study are expected to support sustainable pastoralism system prevalent with the local communities in the ASALs.

Understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.

Projecting future precipitation change across the semi-arid Borana lowland,southern Ethiopia

Climate change caused by past,current,and future greenhouse gas emissions has become a major concern for scientists in the field in many countries and regions of the world.This study modelled future precipitation change by downscaling a set of large-scale climate predictor variables(predictors)from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model(CanESM2)under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the semi-arid Borana lowland,southern Ethiopia.The Statistical DownScaling Model(SDSM)4.2.9 was employed to downscale and project future precipitation change in the middle(2036-2065;2050s)and far(2066-2095;2080s)future at the local scale.Historical precipitation observations from eight meteorological stations stretching from 1981 to 1995 and 1996 to 2005 were used for the model calibration and validation,respectively,and the time period of 1981-2018 was considered and used as the baseline period to analyze future precipitation change.The results revealed that the surface-specific humidity and the geopotential height at 500 hPa were the preferred large-scale predictors.Compared to the middle future(2050s),precipitation showed a much greater increase in the far future(2080s)under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios at all meteorological stations(except Teletele and Dillo stations).At Teltele station,the projected annual precipitation will decrease by 26.53%(2050s)and 39.45%(2080s)under RCP4.5 scenario,and 34.99%(2050s)and 60.62%(2080s)under RCP8.5 scenario.Seasonally,the main rainy period would shift from spring(March to May)to autumn(September to November)at Dehas,Dire,Moyale,and Teltele stations,but for Arero and Yabelo stations,spring would consistently receive more precipitation than autumn.It can be concluded that future precipitation in the semi-arid Borana lowland is predicted to differ under the two climate scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5),showing an increasing trend at most meteorological stations.This information could be helpful for policymakers to design adaptation plans in water resources management,and we suggest that the government should give more attention to improve early warning systems in drought-prone areas by providing dependable climate forecast information as early as possible.

Modelling Land Use/Land Cover Change of River Rwizi Catchment, South-Western Uganda Using GIS and Markov Chain Model

Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products.

Land use change and its driving factors in the ecological function area:A case study in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is important for the provision of ecosystem services.An increasing number of recent studies link LUCC processes to ecosystem services and human well-being at different scales recently.However,the dynamic of land use and its drivers receive insufficient attention within ecological function areas,particularly in quantifying the dynamic roles of climate change and human activities on land use based on a long time series.This study utilizes geospatial analysis and geographical detectors to examine the temporal dynamics of land use patterns and their underlying drivers in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province from 1990 to 2020.Results indicated that grassland,cropland,and forestland collectively accounted for approximately 99% of the total land area.Cropland initially increased and then decreased after 2000,while grassland decreased with fluctuations.In contrast,forestland and construction land were continuously expanded,with net growth areas of 6235.2 and 455.9 km^(2),respectively.From 1990 to 2020,cropland was converted to grassland,and both of them were converted to forestland as a whole.The expansion of construction land primarily originated from cropland.From 2000 to 2005,land use experienced intensified temporal dynamics and a shift of relatively active zones from the central to the southeastern region.Grain yield,economic factors,and precipitation were the major factors accounting for most land use changes.Climatic impacts on land use changes were stronger before 1995,succeeded by the impact of animal husbandry during 1995-2000,followed by the impacts of grain production and gross domestic product(GDP)after 2000.Moreover,agricultural and pastoral activities,coupled with climate change,exhibited stronger enhancement effects after 2000 through their interaction with population and economic factors.These patterns closely correlated with ecological restoration projects in China since 1999.This study implies the importance of synergy between human activity and climate change for optimizing land use via ecological patterns in the ecological function area.

Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Comprehending drivers of land use land cover change from 1999 to 2021 in the Pithoragarh District,Kumaon Himalaya,Uttarakhand,India

The Himalayan region has been experiencing stark impacts of climate change,demographic and livelihood pattern changes.The analysis of land use and land cover(LULC)change provides insights into the shifts in spatial and temporal patterns of landscape.These changes are the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural/climatic factors.The present study attempts to monitor and comprehend the main drivers behind LULC changes(1999-2021)in the Himalayan region of Pithoragarh district,Uttarakhand.Pithoragarh district is a border district,remotely located in the north-east region of Uttarakhand,India.The study draws upon primary and secondary data sources.A total of 400 household surveys and five group discussions from 38 villages were conducted randomly to understand the climate perception of the local community and the drivers of change.Satellite imagery,CRU(Climatic Research Unit)climate data and climate perception data from the field have been used to comprehensively comprehend,analyze,and discuss the trends and reasons for LULC change.GIS and remote sensing techniques were used to construct LULC maps.This multifaceted approach ensures comprehensive and corroborated information.Five classes were identified and formed viz-cultivation,barren,settlement,snow,and vegetation.Results show that vegetation and builtup have increased whereas cultivation,barren land,and snow cover have decreased.The study further aims to elucidate the causes behind LULC changes in the spatially heterogeneous region,distinguishing between those attributed to human activities,climate shifts,and the interconnected impacts of both.The study provides a comprehensive picture of the study area and delivers a targeted understanding of local drivers and their potential remedies by offering a foundation for formulating sustainable adaptation policies in the region.

Sustainable Intensification and Large-scale Operation of Cultivated Land Use at the Farmers’ Scale:A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.

The Impacts and Causes of Land Fragmentation on Farm Productivity: Case Review of East African Countries

This report provides an overall assessment of land fragmentation problems in East Africa. Many parts of East Africa have become highly fragmented, putting development systems and activities in these areas at risk of complete collapse. Land fragmentation occurs when land gets converted for agriculture, industrialization, or urbanization, invaded by non-local plants, or enclosed for individual use and by subdividing farmlands into subsequent smaller units called parcels with varying average farm sizes. Fragmentation results from inappropriate agricultural development processes and ineffective land use planning that fails to recognize how farmland is used, and the importance of its interconnected areas. Insecurity of tenure and resource rights are key factors in making this possible. Land fragmentation is one of the key reasons why the ability of most resources in East Africa becomes scarcer, and those remaining become “privatized” by more powerful community members—keen to maintain their access to them. Such individualistic attitudes are new and disadvantage the poorest even further by affecting the traditional customary safety nets and agricultural outputs. Neither the government nor customary governance systems effectively protect resource access for the poorest. This review summary report identifies the key causes, measures, and implications, government interventions, and the common remedies to land fragmentation problems in the East African Countries of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania including neighboring Ethiopia, and the Sudan. The findings indicated from 2005 to 2015, the population kept increasing for all the named countries in East Africa with Rwanda and Uganda having a substantial increase in population density. The study review further explores the trend in the performance of agriculture by average farm sizes within the intervals of five years by highlighting their strong linkages and found that the average farm size has declined drastically, especially for Kenya. This can only mean that small farms kept becoming smaller and smaller and that there were more small-scale farmers. The results further depicted that the major and commonly cultivated food crops among the East African countries include maize, sorghum, rice, cassava, sweet potatoes, bananas, Irish potatoes, beans, peas, etc., with maize yields (Mt/ha) in 2003 for Uganda being the highest (1.79 Mt/ha) and the lowest in Rwanda (0.77 Mt/ha) respectively. Therefore, from the review results, recommendations are being made as to how the negative impacts of land fragmentation on agricultural productivity can be reduced or mitigated. One way is by community sensitization and awareness about the importance of land consolidation and its proposition on farm productivity.

Land Use Land Cover Analysis for Godavari Basin in Maharashtra Using Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing

The dynamic transformation of land use and land cover has emerged as a crucial aspect in the effective management of natural resources and the continual monitoring of environmental shifts. This study focused on the land use and land cover (LULC) changes within the catchment area of the Godavari River, assessing the repercussions of land and water resource exploitation. Utilizing LANDSAT satellite images from 2009, 2014, and 2019, this research employed supervised classification through the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) software’s SCP plugin. Maximum likelihood classification algorithm was used for the assessment of supervised land use classification. Seven distinct LULC classes—forest, irrigated cropland, agricultural land (fallow), barren land, shrub land, water, and urban land—are delineated for classification purposes. The study revealed substantial changes in the Godavari basin’s land use patterns over the ten-year period from 2009 to 2019. Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes (2009-2019) were quantified using three Satellite/Landsat images, a supervised classification algorithm and the post classification change detection technique in GIS. The total study area of the Godavari basin in Maharashtra encompasses 5138175.48 hectares. Notably, the built-up area increased from 0.14% in 2009 to 1.94% in 2019. The proportion of irrigated cropland, which was 62.32% in 2009, declined to 41.52% in 2019. Shrub land witnessed a noteworthy increase from 0.05% to 2.05% over the last decade. The key findings underscored significant declines in barren land, agricultural land, and irrigated cropland, juxtaposed with an expansion in forest land, shrub land, and urban land. The classification methodology achieved an overall accuracy of 80%, with a Kappa Statistic of 71.9% for the satellite images. The overall classification accuracy along with the Kappa value for 2009, 2014 and 2019 supervised land use land cover classification was good enough to detect the changing scenarios of Godavari River basin under study. These findings provide valuable insights for discerning land utilization across various categories, facilitating the adoption of appropriate strategies for sustainable land use in the region.

Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Identifying drivers of urban landuse changes in the Wenchuan earthquake- affected area by using night-time light data

To learn the process of urban land evolution before and after an earthquake is vital to formulate the urban reconstruction control policies and recovery measures in the earthquake-stricken areas.However,spatiotemporal evolution and its driving factors of urban land in earthquake-prone areas remains limited due to the scarcity of ground observation data.This research,leveraging night-time light remote sensing imagery and land cover data,conducted a comprehensive analysis of the long-term evolution characteristics of urban land in earthquake-prone areas.It introduced methodologies for assessing the socio-economic impact and the primary natural environmental factors driving urban land evolution in these regions.To validate the proposed methods,the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in China was selected as a representative study area.The results indicated that the average Digital Number(DN)values in socio-economically impacted areas showed a trend of rising,falling,and then rising again after the earthquake.DN values in three types of damaged areas including Type Ⅱ,Type Ⅲ,and Type Ⅳ exceeded pre-earthquake levels.The analysis of determinative factors influencing urban land evolution revealed that slope and elevation were key elements in controlling urban land expansion before the earthquake,whereas factors such as slope,elevation,lithology,and faults had a stronger influence on urban land expansion after the earthquake.It can be seen that,in view of the differences in the natural conditions of regions for post-disaster reconstruction,the local government need to actively adjust and adapt to urban spatial planning,so as to leverage the scale effect of large-scale inputs of funds,facilities,human resources and other factors after the disaster,thus enhancing resilience and recovery efficiency in response to disaster impacts.

Examining the Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Determinants of Land Urbanization in Prefecture-level Cities,China

Examining the spatiotemporal dynamics and determinants of land urbanization is critical for promoting healthy urban development and the rational use of land resources.Based on the dataset consisting of land use change data and selected factors in 2010 and2020,this study used visual analysis to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of land urbanization across prefecture-level cities in China.Meanwhile,the driving forces underlying land urbanization were examined by using geographical detector technique.Following are the findings:1)we find that there exist notable spatial variances in land urbanization across prefecture-level cities.Currently,the differentiation in land urbanization between the northern and southern cities is more pronounced than that between the coastal and inland cities,or between the eastern and western cities.Prefecture-level cities located in central and western China have experienced the most rapid growth in land urbanization.Conversely,the growth rate in northeastern China is the lowest,while the velocity in eastern China remains relatively stable.By using spatial autocorrelation analysis,this study reveals that the land urbanization level in prefecture-level cities has significant spatial agglomeration.2)We further find that land urbanization in China is influenced by factors related to urban land supply and demand,and urban population growth,economic growth,land financial and political incentive have greater impact on land urbanization than other factors.3)We also find that the impacts of determinants on China’s land urbanization vary over time,the explanatory power of economic development increased,while the explanatory power of state forces declined.We argue that integrating the supply and demand factors of land urbanization can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the driving mechanisms underlying land urbanization in China and other transitional countries,and help decision-makers in these countries formulate more detailed and specific land urbanization policies.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use/land cover(LULC)changes in the Jinghe River Basin,China

Understanding the trajectories and driving mechanisms behind land use/land cover(LULC)changes is essential for effective watershed planning and management.This study quantified the net change,exchange,total change,and transfer rate of LULC in the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),China using LULC data from 2000 to 2020.Through trajectory analysis,knowledge maps,chord diagrams,and standard deviation ellipse method,we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of LULC changes.We further established an index system encompassing natural factors(digital elevation model(DEM),slope,aspect,and curvature),socio-economic factors(gross domestic product(GDP)and population),and accessibility factors(distance from railways,distance from highways,distance from water,and distance from residents)to investigate the driving mechanisms of LULC changes using factor detector and interaction detector in the geographical detector(Geodetector).The key findings indicate that from 2000 to 2020,the JRB experienced significant LULC changes,particularly for farmland,forest,and grassland.During the study period,LULC change trajectories were categorized into stable,early-stage,late-stage,repeated,and continuous change types.Besides the stable change type,the late-stage change type predominated the LULC change trajectories,comprising 83.31% of the total change area.The period 2010-2020 witnessed more active LULC changes compared to the period 2000-2010.The LULC changes exhibited a discrete spatial expansion trend during 2000-2020,predominantly extending from southeast to northwest of the JRB.Influential driving factors on LULC changes included slope,GDP,and distance from highways.The interaction detection results imply either bilinear or nonlinear enhancement for any two driving factors impacting the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020.This comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of LULC changes offers valuable insights for the planning and sustainable management of LULC in the JRB.

Discussion on Land Use Mode Reform in Coal Opencast Mining

The existing land supply mode of opencast mining is"land requisition first,then transfer",which lacks an effective recovery and withdrawal mechanism,and the reclaimed mining land is difficult to withdraw.According to the regular rules of coal opencast mining and the periodic characteristics of land use,this paper puts forward a new mode of temporary land use for coal opencast mining.It is conducive to im-proving the quality and scale of land use and reclamation utilization of opencast coal mining,and is of great significance for exploring and for-mulating reasonable land use policies for mineral resources development projects.

Using neural network modeling to improve the detection accuracy of land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal

Despite the high efficiency of remote sensing methods for rapid and large-scale detection of subsidence phenomena,this technique has limitations such as atmospheric impact and temporal and spatial decorrelation that affect the accuracy of the results.This paper proposes a method based on an artificial neural network to improve the results of monitoring land subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation by radar interferometry in the Aliabad plain(Central Iran).In this regard,vertical ground deformations were monitored over 18 months using the Sentinel-1A SAR images.To model the land subsidence by a multilayer perceptron(MLP)artificial neural network,four parameters,including groundwater level,alluvial thickness,elastic modulus,and transmissivity have been applied.The model's generalizability was assessed using data derived for 144 days.According to the results,the neural network estimates the land subsidence at each ground point with an accuracy of 6.8 mm.A comparison between the predicted and actual values indicated a significant agreement.The MLP model can be used to improve the results of subsidence detection in the study area or other areas with similar characteristics.

Landscape ecological risk assessment and its driving factors in the Weihe River basin,China

Weihe River basin is of great significance to analyze the changes of land use pattern and landscape ecological risk and to improve the ecological basis of regional development.Based on land use data of the Weihe River basin in 2000,2010,and 2020,with the support of Aeronautical Reconnaissance Coverage Geographic Information System(ArcGIS),GeoDa,and other technologies,this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of land use pattern and landscape ecological risk.Results showed that land use structure of the Weihe River basin has changed significantly,with the decrease of cropland and the increase of forest land and construction land.In the past 20 a,cropland has decreased by 7347.70 km2,and cropland was mainly converted into forest land,grassland,and construction land.The fragmentation and dispersion of ecological landscape pattern in the Weihe River basin were improved,and land use pattern became more concentrated.Meanwhile,landscape ecological risk of the Weihe River basin has been improved.Severe landscape ecological risk area decreased by 19,177.87 km2,high landscape ecological risk area decreased by 3904.35 km2,and moderate and low landscape ecological risk areas continued to increase.It is worth noting that landscape ecological risks in the upper reaches of the Weihe River basin are still relatively serious,especially in the contiguous areas of high ecological risk,such as Tianshui,Pingliang,Dingxi areas and some areas of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Landscape ecological risk showed obvious spatial dependence,and high ecological risk area was concentrated.Among the driving factors,population density,precipitation,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and their interactions are the most important factors affecting the landscape ecological risk of the Weihe River basin.The findings significantly contribute to our understanding of the ecological dynamics in the Weihe River basin,providing crucial insights for sustainable management in the region.