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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of in-vessel phenomena under severe accident mitigation strategy based on ISAA-SAUP program
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作者 Hao Yang Ji-Shen Li +2 位作者 Zhi-Ran Zhang Bin Zhang Jian-Qiang Shan 《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第1期108-123,共16页
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce... The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products. 展开更多
关键词 Gen-III PWR Severe accident mitigation Wilks’formula HYDROGEN Fission products Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
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A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures
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作者 Akshay Kumar Gaurav Tiwari 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期840-859,共20页
Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating du... Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully. 展开更多
关键词 Bayesian inference Multi-model inference Statistical uncertainty Global sensitivity analysis(GSA) Borgonovo’s indices Limited data
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Second-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Computing Exactly Response Sensitivities to Uncertain Parameters and Boundaries of Linear Systems: Mathematical Framework 被引量:3
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作者 Dan Gabriel Cacuci 《American Journal of Computational Mathematics》 2020年第3期329-354,共26页
This work presents the “Second-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM)” for the efficient and exact computation of 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>... This work presents the “Second-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM)” for the efficient and exact computation of 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order response sensitivities to uncertain parameters and domain boundaries of linear systems. The model’s response (<em>i.e.</em>, model result of interest) is a generic nonlinear function of the model’s forward and adjoint state functions, and also depends on the imprecisely known boundaries and model parameters. In the practically important particular case when the response is a scalar-valued functional of the forward and adjoint state functions characterizing a model comprising N parameters, the 2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM requires a single large-scale computation using the First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (1<sup>st</sup>-LASS) for obtaining all of the first-order response sensitivities, and at most N large-scale computations using the Second-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS) for obtaining exactly all of the second-order response sensitivities. In contradistinction, forward other methods would require (<em>N</em>2/2 + 3 <em>N</em>/2) large-scale computations for obtaining all of the first- and second-order sensitivities. This work also shows that constructing and solving the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS requires very little additional effort beyond the construction of the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS needed for computing the first-order sensitivities. Solving the equations underlying the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS and 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS requires the same computational solvers as needed for solving (<em>i.e.</em>, “inverting”) either the forward or the adjoint linear operators underlying the initial model. Therefore, the same computer software and “solvers” used for solving the original system of equations can also be used for solving the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS and the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS. Since neither the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS nor the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS involves any differentials of the operators underlying the original system, the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS is designated as a “<u>first-level</u>” (as opposed to a “first-order”) adjoint sensitivity system, while the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS is designated as a “<u>second-level</u>” (rather than a “second-order”) adjoint sensitivity system. Mixed second-order response sensitivities involving boundary parameters may arise from all source terms of the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS that involve the imprecisely known boundary parameters. Notably, the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS encompasses an automatic, inherent, and independent “solution verification” mechanism of the correctness and accuracy of the 2nd-level adjoint functions needed for the efficient and exact computation of the second-order sensitivities. 展开更多
关键词 Second-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity analysis Methodology (2nd-CASAM) First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (1st-LASS) Second-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (2nd-LASS) Operator-Type Response Second-Order sensitivities to Uncertain Model Boundaries Second-Order sensitivities to Uncertain Model Parameters
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Third Order Adjoint Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of an OECD/NEA Reactor Physics Benchmark: II. Computed Sensitivities 被引量:1
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作者 Ruixian Fang Dan Gabriel Cacuci 《American Journal of Computational Mathematics》 2020年第4期529-558,共30页
This work presents the results of the exact computation of (180)<sup>3</sup> = 5,832,000 third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental be... This work presents the results of the exact computation of (180)<sup>3</sup> = 5,832,000 third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cross sections. This computation was made possible by applying the Third-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology developed by Cacuci. The numerical results obtained in this work revealed that many of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities are significantly larger than their corresponding 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order ones, which is contrary to the widely held belief that higher-order sensitivities are all much smaller and hence less important than the first-order ones, for reactor physics systems. In particular, the largest 3<sup>rd</sup>-order relative sensitivity is the mixed sensitivity <img src="Edit_754b8437-dfdf-487d-af68-c78c637e6d4e.png" width="180" height="24" alt="" />of the PERP leakage response with respect to the lowest energy-group (30) total cross sections of <sup>1</sup>H (“isotope 6”) and <sup>239</sup>Pu (“isotope 1”). These two isotopes are shown in this work to be the two most important parameters affecting the PERP benchmark’s leakage response. By comparison, the largest 1<sup>st</sup>-order sensitivity is that of the PERP leakage response with respect to the lowest energy-group total cross section of isotope <sup>1</sup>H, having the value <img src="Edit_a5cfcc11-6a99-41ee-b844-a5ee84b454b3.png" width="100" height="24" alt="" />, while the largest 2<sup>nd</sup>-order sensitivity is <img src="Edit_05166a2b-97f7-43f1-98ff-b21368c00228.png" width="120" height="22" alt="" />. The 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivity analysis presented in this work is the first ever such analysis in the field of reactor physics. The consequences of the results presented in this work on the uncertainty analysis of the PERP benchmark’s leakage response will be presented in a subsequent work. 展开更多
关键词 Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium Sphere 1st-Order sensitivities 2nd-Order sensitivities 3rd-Order sensitivities Third Order Adjoint Sensitivity analysis Microscopic Total Cross Sections
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Fourth-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of an OECD/NEA Reactor Physics Benchmark: II. Mathematical Expressions and CPU-Time Comparisons for Computing 4<sup>th</sup>-Order Sensitivities 被引量:1
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作者 Dan Gabriel Cacuci Ruixian Fang 《American Journal of Computational Mathematics》 2021年第2期133-156,共24页
This work extends to fourth-order previously published work on developing the adjoint sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the numerical model of a <u>p</u>oly<u>e</u>thylene-<u>r</... This work extends to fourth-order previously published work on developing the adjoint sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the numerical model of a <u>p</u>oly<u>e</u>thylene-<u>r</u>eflected <u>p</u>lutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. Previous works showed that the third-order sensitivities of the PERP leakage response with respect to these total microscopic cross sections are far larger than the corresponding 1<sup>st</sup>-order and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order ones, thereby having the largest impact on the uncertainties induced in the PERP benchmark’s response. This finding has motivated the development of the original 4<sup>th</sup>-order formulas presented in this work, which are valid not only for the PERP benchmark but can also be used for computing the 4<sup>th</sup>-order sensitivities of response of any nuclear system involving fissionable material and internal or external neutron sources. Subsequent works will use the adjoint-based mathematical expressions obtained in this work to compute exactly and efficiently the numerical values of the largest fourth-order sensitivities of the PERP benchmark’s response to the total microscopic cross sections, and use them for a pioneering fourth-order uncertainty analysis of the PERP benchmark’s response. 展开更多
关键词 Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium Sphere 4th-Order Adjoint Sensitivity analysis Microscopic Total Cross Sections
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Seismic response comparison and sensitivity analysis of pile foundation in liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils 被引量:2
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作者 Jia Kemin Xu Chengshun +3 位作者 Du Xiuli Cui Chunyi Dou Pengfei Song Jia 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2023年第1期87-104,共18页
Case history investigations have shown that pile foundations are more critically damaged in liquefiable soils than non-liquefiable soils.This study examines the differences in seismic response of pile foundations in l... Case history investigations have shown that pile foundations are more critically damaged in liquefiable soils than non-liquefiable soils.This study examines the differences in seismic response of pile foundations in liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils and their sensitivity to numerical model parameters.A two-dimensional finite element(FE)model is developed to simulate the experiment of a single pile foundation centrifuge in liquefiable soil subjected to earthquake motions and is validated against real-world test results.The differences in soil-pile seismic response of liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils are explored.Specifically,the first-order second-moment method(FOSM)is used for sensitivity analysis of the seismic response.The results show significant differences in seismic response for a soil-pile system between liquefiable and non-liquefiable soil.The seismic responses are found to be significantly larger in liquefiable soil than in non-liquefiable soil.Moreover,the pile bending moment was mainly affected by the kinematic effect in liquefiable soil,while the inertial effect was more significant in non-liquefiable soil.The controlling parameters of seismic response were PGA,soil density,and friction angle in liquefiable soil,while the pile bending moment was mainly controlled by PGA,the friction angle of soil,and shear modulus of loose sand in non-liquefiable soil. 展开更多
关键词 liquefiable non-liquefiable finite element analysis pile foundation seismic response sensitivity analysis
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Seismic Liquefaction Resistance Based on Strain Energy Concept Considering Fine Content Value Effect and Performance Parametric Sensitivity Analysis 被引量:1
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作者 Nima Pirhadi Xusheng Wan +3 位作者 Jianguo Lu Jilei Hu Mahmood Ahmad Farzaneh Tahmoorian 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2023年第4期733-754,共22页
Liquefaction is one of the most destructive phenomena caused by earthquakes,which has been studied in the issues of potential,triggering and hazard analysis.The strain energy approach is a common method to investigate... Liquefaction is one of the most destructive phenomena caused by earthquakes,which has been studied in the issues of potential,triggering and hazard analysis.The strain energy approach is a common method to investigate liquefaction potential.In this study,two Artificial Neural Network(ANN)models were developed to estimate the liquefaction resistance of sandy soil based on the capacity strain energy concept(W)by using laboratory test data.A large database was collected from the literature.One group of the dataset was utilized for validating the process in order to prevent overtraining the presented model.To investigate the complex influence of fine content(FC)on liquefaction resistance,according to previous studies,the second database was arranged by samples with FC of less than 28%and was used to train the second ANN model.Then,two presented ANN models in this study,in addition to four extra available models,were applied to an additional 20 new samples for comparing their results to show the capability and accuracy of the presented models herein.Furthermore,a parametric sensitivity analysis was performed through Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)to evaluate the effects of parameters and their uncertainties on the liquefaction resistance of soils.According to the results,the developed models provide a higher accuracy prediction performance than the previously publishedmodels.The sensitivity analysis illustrated that the uncertainties of grading parameters significantly affect the liquefaction resistance of soils. 展开更多
关键词 Liquefaction resistance capacity strain energy artificial neural network sensitivity analysis Monte Carlo Simulation
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Prediction and sensitivity analysis of the surface quality in Ni60/WC coatings 被引量:1
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作者 杨江淮 练国富 +1 位作者 陈昌荣 冯美艳 《China Welding》 CAS 2023年第1期35-45,共11页
For laser cladding a large temperature gradient easily weakened the surface quality by generating cracks and irregular coating surfaces,which in turn affected the bearing capacity and corrosion resistance of coatings ... For laser cladding a large temperature gradient easily weakened the surface quality by generating cracks and irregular coating surfaces,which in turn affected the bearing capacity and corrosion resistance of coatings in the rapid heating and cooling process.The response surface methodology(RSM)was used to predict coating cracks by changing the powder ratio,energy density,and preheating temperature,which obtained the relevant mathematical model.After that,the sensitivity of the crack length to process parameters was analyzed based on the sensitivity analysis method.The effect of Ni60/WC composite powder process parameters on the surface quality was revealed in laser cladding.The crack length first decreased and then increased,and the Smooth decreased with the increased powder ratio.The crack length and Smooth increased with the increased energy density.The crack length decreased and Smooth increased with the increased preheating temperature.Sensitivity analysis showed that the crack length and Smooth were the most sensitive to the powder ratio.Therefore,the process parameters were reasonably selected to control the surface quality.The mathematical model and sensitivity analysis method in the work could improve the surface quality,which provided a theoretical basis for the prediction and control of laser cladding cracks. 展开更多
关键词 laser cladding Ni60/WC surface quality mathematical model sensitivity analysis
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Sensitivity analysis and probability modelling of the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome subjected to an external blast loading
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作者 Shao-bo Qi Guang-yan Huang +1 位作者 Xu-dong Zhi Feng Fan 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第5期152-163,共12页
The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predict... The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predicting the consequences of specific explosions do not account for these uncertainties.Therefore,the impact of the uncertainties associated with these input variables on the structures’response needs to be studied and quantified.In this study,a parametric uncertainty analysis was conducted first.Then,local and global sensitivity analyses were carried out to identify the drivers of the structural dynamic response.A probabilistic structural response model was established based on sensitive variables and a reasonable sample size.Furthermore,some deterministic empirical methods for explosion-resistance design,including the plane blast load model of CONWEP,the curved blast load model under the 50%assurance level,and the 20%mass-increased method,were used for evaluating their reliability.The results of the analyses revealed that the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to an external blast loading is lognormally distributed.Evidently,the MB0.5 method based on the curved reflector load model yielded results with a relatively stable assurance rate and reliability,but CONWEP did not;thus,the 1.2MB0.5 method can be used for making high-confidence simple predictions.In addition,the results indicated that the structural response is very sensitive to the explosion parameters.Based on these results,it is suggested that for explosion proofing,setting up a defensive barrier is more effective than structural strengthening. 展开更多
关键词 Dome structure Blast load uncertainty Sensitivity analysis Probabilistic investigation Reliability evaluation
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Numerical modeling and parametric sensitivity analysis of heat transfer and two-phase oil and water flow characteristics in horizontal and inclined flowlines using OpenFOAM
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作者 Nsidibe Sunday Abdelhakim Settar +1 位作者 Khaled Chetehouna Nicolas Gascoin 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第2期1183-1199,共17页
Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to ... Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to the temperature difference between the fluids and the surroundings. Heat transfer analysis is very important for the prediction and prevention of deposits in oil and water flowlines, which could impede the flow and give rise to huge financial losses. Therefore, a 3D mathematical model of oil-water Newtonian flow under non-isothermal conditions is established to explore the complex mechanisms of the two-phase oil-water transportation and heat transfer in different flowline inclinations. In this work, a non-isothermal two-phase flow model is first modified and then implemented in the InterFoam solver by introducing the energy equation using OpenFOAM® code. The Low Reynolds Number (LRN) k-ε turbulence model is utilized to resolve the turbulence phenomena within the oil and water mixtures. The flow patterns and the local heat transfer coefficients (HTC) for two-phase oil-water flow at different flowlines inclinations (0°, +4°, +7°) are validated by the experimental literature results and the relative errors are also compared. Global sensitivity analysis is then conducted to determine the effect of the different parameters on the performance of the produced two-phase hydrocarbon systems for effective subsea fluid transportation. Thereafter, HTC and flow patterns for oil-water flows at downward inclinations of 4°, and 7° can be predicted by the models. The velocity distribution, pressure gradient, liquid holdup, and temperature variation at the flowline cross-sections are simulated and analyzed in detail. Consequently, the numerical model can be generally applied to compute the global properties of the fluid and other operating parameters that are beneficial in the management of two-phase oil-water transportation. 展开更多
关键词 Flow assurance Flow pattern Heat transfer Flowlines Two-phase flow Global sensitivity analysis
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A New Sensitivity Analysis Approach Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Its Preliminary Application
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作者 Qiujie REN Mu MU +1 位作者 Guodong SUN Qiang WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第2期285-304,共20页
Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties,and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important sources.It is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by... Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties,and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important sources.It is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by reducing the uncertainties of all parameters.Therefore,identifying the sensitive parameters or parameter combinations is crucial.This study proposes a novel approach:conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity analysis(CNOPSA)method.The CNOPSA method fully considers the nonlinear synergistic effects of parameters in the whole parameter space and quantitatively estimates the maximum effects of parameter uncertainties,prone to extreme events.Results of the analytical g-function test indicate that the CNOPSA method can effectively identify the sensitivity of variables.Numerical results of the theoretical five-variable grassland ecosystem model show that the maximum influence of the simulated wilted biomass caused by parameter uncertainty can be estimated and computed by employing the CNOPSA method.The identified sensitive parameters can easily change the simulation or prediction of the wilted biomass,which affects the transformation of the grassland state in the grassland ecosystem.The variance-based approach may underestimate the parameter sensitivity because it only considers the influence of limited parameter samples from a statistical view.This study verifies that the CNOPSA method is effective and feasible for exploring the important and sensitive physical parameters or parameter combinations in numerical models. 展开更多
关键词 physical parameters parameter uncertainty sensitivity analysis nonlinear optimization land-surface process
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HVAC Optimal Control Based on the Sensitivity Analysis:An Improved SA Combination Method Based on a Neural Network
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作者 Lifan Zhao Zetian Huang +3 位作者 Qiming Fu Nengwei Fang Bin Xing Jianping Chen 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2023年第9期2741-2758,共18页
Aiming at optimizing the energy consumption of HVAC,an energy conservation optimization method was proposed for HVAC systems based on the sensitivity analysis(SA),named the sensitivity analysis combination method(SAC)... Aiming at optimizing the energy consumption of HVAC,an energy conservation optimization method was proposed for HVAC systems based on the sensitivity analysis(SA),named the sensitivity analysis combination method(SAC).Based on the SA,neural network and the related settings about energy conservation of HVAC systems,such as cooling water temperature,chilled water temperature and supply air temperature,were optimized.Moreover,based on the data of the existing HVAC system,various optimal control methods ofHVAC systems were tested and evaluated by a simulated HVAC system in TRNSYS.The results show that the proposed SA combination method can reduce significant computational load while maintaining an equivalent energy performance compared with traditional optimal control methods. 展开更多
关键词 Energy conservation sensitivity analysis HVAC system neural network
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Sensitivity Analysis of Multi-phase Seepage Parameters Affecting the Clayey Silt Hydrate Reservoir Productivity in the Shenhu Area,South China Sea
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作者 LI Yaobin XU Tianfu +3 位作者 XIN Xin ZANG Yingqi ZHU Huixing YUAN Yilong 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期1787-1800,共14页
Natural gas hydrate(NGH)is an important future resource for the 21st century and a strategic resource with potential for commercial development in the third energy transition.It is of great significance to accurately ... Natural gas hydrate(NGH)is an important future resource for the 21st century and a strategic resource with potential for commercial development in the third energy transition.It is of great significance to accurately predict the productivity of hydrate-bearing sediments(HBS).The multi-phase seepage parameters of HBS include permeability,porosity,which is closely related to permeability,and hydrate saturation,which has a direct impact on hydrate content.Existing research has shown that these multi-phase seepage parameters have a great impact on HBS productivity.Permeability directly affects the transmission of pressure-drop and discharge of methane gas,porosity and initial hydrate saturation affect the amount of hydrate decomposition and transmission process of pressure-drop,and also indirectly affect temperature variation of the reservoir.Considering the spatial heterogeneity of multi-phase seepage parameters,a depressurization production model with layered heterogeneity is established based on the clayey silt hydrate reservoir at W11 station in the Shenhu Sea area of the South China Sea.Tough+Hydrate software was used to calculate the production model;the process of gas production and seepage parameter evolution under different multi-phase seepage conditions were obtained.A sensitivity analysis of the parameters affecting the reservoir productivity was conducted so that:(a)a HBS model with layered heterogeneity can better describe the transmission process of pressure and thermal compensation mechanism of hydrate reservoir;(b)considering the multi-phase seepage parameter heterogeneity,the influence degrees of the parameters on HBS productivity were permeability,porosity and initial hydrate saturation,in order from large to small,and the influence of permeability was significantly greater than that of other parameters;(c)the production potential of the clayey silt reservoir should not only be determined by hydrate content or seepage capacity,but also by the comprehensive effect of the two;and(d)time scales need to be considered when studying the effects of changes in multi-phase seepage parameters on HBS productivity. 展开更多
关键词 energy resources natural gas hydrate sensitivity analysis seepage parameters clayey silt reservoir Pearl River Mouth Basin
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Sensitivity analysis of factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along a foundation surface using Sobol method
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作者 Bo Xu Shi-da Wang 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2023年第4期399-407,共9页
The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecti... The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along the foundation surface.According to the design specifications,the loads and factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam were comprehensively selected.Afterwards,the sensitivity of the factors was preliminarily analyzed using the Sobol method with Latin hypercube sampling.Then,the results of the sensitivity analysis were verified with those obtained using the Garson method.Finally,the effects of different sampling methods,probability distribution types of factor samples,and ranges of factor values on the analysis results were evaluated.A case study of a typical gravity dam in Yunnan Province of China showed that the dominant factors affecting the gravity dam anti-sliding stability were the anti-shear cohesion,upstream and downstream water levels,anti-shear friction coefficient,uplift pressure reduction coefficient,concrete density,and silt height.Choice of sampling methods showed no significant effect,but the probability distribution type and the range of factor values greatly affected the analysis results.Therefore,these two elements should be sufficiently considered to improve the reliability of the dam anti-sliding stability analysis. 展开更多
关键词 Gravity dam Anti-sliding stability Sensitivity analysis Sobol method Latin hypercube sampling
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Integrity and Failure Analysis of Cement Sheath Subjected to Coalbed Methane Fracturing
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作者 Lingyun Zhao Heng Yang +3 位作者 Yuanlong Wei Yuhuan Bu Shaorui Jing Peiming Zhou 《Fluid Dynamics & Materials Processing》 EI 2023年第2期329-344,共16页
Perforation and fracturing are typically associated with the development of coalbed methane wells.As the cement sheath is prone to failure during this process,in this work,the effects of the casing pressure,elastic mo... Perforation and fracturing are typically associated with the development of coalbed methane wells.As the cement sheath is prone to failure during this process,in this work,the effects of the casing pressure,elastic modulus of the cement,elastic modulus of the formation,and casing eccentricity on the resulting stresses are analyzed in the frame of a finite element method.Subsequently,sensitivity response curves of the cement sheath stress are plotted by normalizing all factors.The results show that the maximum circumferential stress and Mises stress of the cement sheath increase with the casing internal pressure,elastic modulus of the cement and casing eccentricity.As the elastic modulus of the formation increases,the maximum circumferential stress of the cement sheath decreases,and its maximum Mises stress increases slightly.The cement sheath undergoes tensile failure during coalbed methane fracturing.The stress sensitivity of the cement sheath to the influential parameters is in the following order:casing internal pressure>elastic modulus of cement sheath>casing eccentricity>elastic modulus of formation. 展开更多
关键词 Coalbed methane fracturing finite element method cement sheath integrity sensitivity analysis failure analysis
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Parameter sensitivity analysis for a biochemically-based photosynthesis model
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作者 Tuo Han Qi Feng TengFei Yu 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2023年第2期73-84,共12页
A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed... A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed by stoma in leaves. In the photosynthesis module of these LSMs, variations of parameters arising from diversity in plant functional types(PFTs) and climate remain unclear. Identifying sensitive parameters among all photosynthetic parameters before parameter estimation can not only reduce operation cost, but also improve the usability of photosynthesis models worldwide. Here, we analyzed 13 parameters of a biochemically-based photosynthesis model(FvCB), implemented in many LSMs, using two sensitivity analysis(SA) methods(i.e., the Sobol’ method and the Morris method) for setting up the parameter ensemble. Three different model performance metrics, i.e.,Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE), and Standard Deviation(STDEV) were introduced for model assessment and sensitive parameters identification. The results showed that among all photosynthetic parameters only a small portion of parameters were sensitive, and the sensitive parameters were different across plant functional types: maximum rate of Rubisco activity(Vcmax25), maximum electron transport rate(Jmax25), triose phosphate use rate(TPU) and dark respiration in light(Rd) were sensitive in broad leafevergreen trees(BET), broad leaf-deciduous trees(BDT) and needle leaf-evergreen trees(NET), while only Vcmax25and TPU are sensitive in short vegetation(SV), dwarf trees and shrubs(DTS), and agriculture and grassland(AG). The two sensitivity analysis methods suggested a strong SA coherence;in contrast, different model performance metrics led to different SA results. This misfit suggests that more accurate values of sensitive parameters, specifically, species specific and seasonal variable parameters, are required to improve the performance of the FvCB model. 展开更多
关键词 Sobol’method Morris method PHOTOSYNTHESIS Parameters sensitivity analysis FvCB model
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A Processor Performance Prediction Method Based on Interpretable Hierarchical Belief Rule Base and Sensitivity Analysis
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作者 Chen Wei-wei He Wei +3 位作者 Zhu Hai-long Zhou Guo-hui Mu Quan-qi Han Peng 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2023年第3期6119-6143,共25页
The prediction of processor performance has important referencesignificance for future processors. Both the accuracy and rationality of theprediction results are required. The hierarchical belief rule base (HBRB)can i... The prediction of processor performance has important referencesignificance for future processors. Both the accuracy and rationality of theprediction results are required. The hierarchical belief rule base (HBRB)can initially provide a solution to low prediction accuracy. However, theinterpretability of the model and the traceability of the results still warrantfurther investigation. Therefore, a processor performance prediction methodbased on interpretable hierarchical belief rule base (HBRB-I) and globalsensitivity analysis (GSA) is proposed. The method can yield more reliableprediction results. Evidence reasoning (ER) is firstly used to evaluate thehistorical data of the processor, followed by a performance prediction modelwith interpretability constraints that is constructed based on HBRB-I. Then,the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is used to optimize the parameters.Furthermore, to test the interpretability of the performance predictionprocess, GSA is used to analyze the relationship between the input and thepredicted output indicators. Finally, based on the UCI database processordataset, the effectiveness and superiority of the method are verified. Accordingto our experiments, our prediction method generates more reliable andaccurate estimations than traditional models. 展开更多
关键词 Hierarchical belief rule base(HBRB) evidence reasoning(ER) INTERPRETABILITY global sensitivity analysis(GSA) whale optimization algorithm(WOA)
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Stability Analysis and Control of DC Distribution System with Electric Vehicles
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作者 Zhijie Zheng Song Zhang +3 位作者 Xiaolei Zhang Bo Yang Fang Yan Xiaoning Ge 《Energy Engineering》 EI 2023年第3期633-647,共15页
The DC distribution network system equipped with a large number of power electronic equipment exhibits weak damping characteristics and is prone to low-frequency and high-frequency unstable oscillations.The current in... The DC distribution network system equipped with a large number of power electronic equipment exhibits weak damping characteristics and is prone to low-frequency and high-frequency unstable oscillations.The current interpretation of the oscillation mechanism has not been unified.Firstly,this paper established the complete statespace model of the distribution system consisting of a large number of electric vehicles,characteristic equation of the distribution network system is derived by establishing a state-space model,and simplified reduced-order equations describing the low-frequency oscillation and the high-frequency oscillation are obtained.Secondly,based on eigenvalue analysis,the oscillation modes and the influence of the key system parameters on the oscillation mode are studied.Besides,impacts of key factors,such as distribution network connection topology and number of dynamic loads,have been discussed to suppress oscillatory instability caused by inappropriate design or dynamic interactions.Finally,using the DC distribution example system,through model calculation and time-domain simulation analysis,the correctness of the aforementioned analysis is verified. 展开更多
关键词 DC distribution network system oscillation instability reduced-order equivalent model damping control sensitivity analysis
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Dynamic Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis for an MEA-Based CO_(2) Capture Absorber
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作者 Hongwei Guan Lingjian Ye +2 位作者 Yurun Wang Feifan Shen Yuchen He 《Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing》 SCIE 2023年第6期3535-3550,共16页
The absorber is the key unit in the post-combustion monoethanolamine(MEA)-based carbon dioxide(CO_(2))capture process.A rate-based dynamic model for the absorber is developed and validated using steady-state experimen... The absorber is the key unit in the post-combustion monoethanolamine(MEA)-based carbon dioxide(CO_(2))capture process.A rate-based dynamic model for the absorber is developed and validated using steady-state experimental data reported in open literature.Sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to important model parameters associated with the reaction,mass transport and phy-sical property relationships.Then,a singular value decomposition(SVD)-based subspace parameter estimation method is proposed to improve the model accu-racy.Finally,dynamic simulations are carried out to investigate the effects of the feed rate of lean MEA solution and the flue inlet conditions.Simulation results indicate that the established dynamic model can reasonably reflect the physical behavior of the absorber.Some new insights are gained from the simulation results. 展开更多
关键词 CO_(2)capture dynamic modeling sensitivity analysis model validation
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Prognostic model and treatment plan analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma based on genes related to glutamine metabolism
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作者 Liang Yu Chen Ying +3 位作者 Wang Hao-jie Ren Ming-xin Liu Gao-feng Liu Chang-qing 《Journal of Hainan Medical University》 CAS 2023年第16期41-51,共11页
Objective:To identify the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)and the effect of anti-cancer drug therapy by screening glutamine metabolism-related signature genes because glutamine metabolism plays an important ... Objective:To identify the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)and the effect of anti-cancer drug therapy by screening glutamine metabolism-related signature genes because glutamine metabolism plays an important role in tumor development.Methods:We obtained gene expression samples of normal liver tissue and hepatocellular carcinoma from the TCGA database and GEO database,screened for differentially expressed glutamine metabolismrelated genes(GMRGs),constructed a prognostic model by lasso regression and step cox analysis,and assessed the differences in drug sensitivity between high-and low-risk groups.Results:We screened 23 differentially expressed GMRGs by differential analysis,and correlation loop plots and PPI protein interaction networks indicated that these differential genes were strongly correlated.The four most characterized genes(CAD,PPAT,PYCR3,and SLC7A11)were obtained by lasso regression and step cox,and a risk model was constructed and confirmed to have reliable predictive power in the TCGA dataset and GEO dataset.Finally,immunotherapy is better in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group,and chemotherapy and targeted drug therapy are better in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group.Conclusion:In conclusion,we have developed a reliable prognostic risk model characterized by glutamine metabolism-related genes,which may provide a viable basis for the prognosis and Treatment options of HCC patients. 展开更多
关键词 Hepatocellular carcinoma Glutamine metabolism Prognostic model Drug sensitivity analysis
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