Incorporating Uncertain Costs within a Series of Sequential Probability Ratio Tests

We consider an extension to Sequential Probability Ratio Tests for when we have uncertain costs, but also opportunity to learn about these in an adaptive manner. In doing so we demonstrate the effects that allowing uncertainty has on observation cost, and the costs associated with Type I and Type II error. The value of information relating to modelled uncertainties is derived and the case of statistical dependence between the parameter affecting decision outcome and the parameter affecting unknown cost is also examined. Numerical examples of the derived theory are provided, along with a simulation comparing this adaptive learning framework to the classical one.

Fast nuclide identification based on a sequential Bayesian method

The rapid identification of radioactive substances in public areas is crucial.However,traditional nuclide identification methods only consider information regarding the full energy peaks of the gamma-ray spectrum and require long recording times,which lead to long response times.In this paper,a novel identification method using the event mode sequence(EMS)information of target radionuclides is proposed.The EMS of a target radionuclide and natural background radiation were established as two different probabilistic models and a decision function based on Bayesian inference and sequential testing was constructed.The proposed detection scheme individually processes each photon.When a photon is detected and accepted,the corresponding posterior probability distribution parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference and the decision function is updated.Then,value of the decision function is compared to preset detection thresholds to obtain a detection result.Experiments on different target radionuclides(137Cs and 60Co)were performed.The count rates of the regions of interest(ROI)in the backgrounds between[651,671],[1154,1186],and[1310,1350]keV were 2.35,5.14,and 0.57 CPS,respectively.The experimental results demonstrate that the average detection time was 6.0 s for 60Co(with an activity of 80400 Bq)at a distance of 60 cm from the detector.The average detection time was 7 s for 137Cs(with an activity of 131000 Bq)at a distance of 90 cm from the detector.The results demonstrate that the proposed method can detect radioactive substances with low activity.

Sequential experimental observation on the curative effect of Yingbupu decoction of Zhuang medicine on stage I and II acute kidney injury

Objective:To observe the clinical efficacy of the Zhuang medicine Yingbupu decoction on stage I and II acute kidney injury through sequential test.Methods:The open one-way qualitative response sequential design of experiments was adopted,and the patients with AKI in phase I and II who met the inclusion criteria were divided into the treatment group and the control group according to the order of hospitalization by random number table.On the basis of basic treatment,the treatment group was treated with Zhuang medicine Yingbupu decoction,and the control group was treated with Jinshuibao tablet.The clinical efficacy,TCM syndrome score,24 h urine volume,serum creatinine(Scr),microalbumin in urine(mAlb),neutrophil Gelatinase related lipid delivery albumin(NGAL)of the two groups were compared,and the adverse reactions and complications of the two groups were observed.Results:After 14 d of treatment,when the treatment group reached the 10th case,the experimental line contacted the upper bound U-line and reached the experimental standard to terminate the experiment.The effective hypothesis was accepted,and it was believed that the Zhuang medicine Yingbupu decoction had a therapeutic effect on stage I and II AKI.The conclusion was drawn that the treatment group received the Zhuang medicine Yingbupu.The clinical effective rate and improvement days were similar between the two groups,and there was no significant difference(P>0.05).However,the integral value of traditional Chinese medicine syndrome in the treatment group was lower than that in the control group(P<0.05),After treatment,the Scr,mAlb,and NGAL levels of patients in both groups were lower than before treatment(P<0.05).After treatment,the Scr,mAlb,and NGAL values in the treatment group were significantly lower than those in the control group(P<0.05).After treatment,the 24-hour urine volume in both groups was higher than that before treatment,and the values in the treatment group were significantly higher than those in the control group(P<0.05).During the treatment period,there were no significant adverse reactions or complications in either group.Conclusion:The Zhuang medicine Yingbupu decoction is effective in treating stage I and II AKI,and the Zhuang medicine Yingbupu can significantly improve the symptoms and quality of life of patients with stage I and II AKI.Its improvement of renal function is better than that of Jinshuibao tablets,and its safety is good.