Anomalies identification of Earth’s rotation rate time series (2012-2017) for possible correlation with strong earthquakes occurrence

The analysis of the Earth’s rotation rate time series,from January 1,2012 till December 31,2017,is performed using two different time series analysis methods,both based on signal decomposition joined with forecasting approach.Anomalies in the time series are detected making the comparison between the raw signal and the forecasting one at the 95% confidence interval.The two methods show consistent results and the best is selected according to the evaluation of the prediction uncertainty.Both methods highlight correlations between detected anomalies in the Earth’s rotation rate time series and the world’s earthquakes occurrence with magnitude≥7 and/or number of events≥150 per day,within a time interval of ±10 days from each earthquake event.This study brings an innovation in the analysis of such time series and helps to better understand the extent of this relationship.

Seismotectonics of the 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang,Jiangxi,Ms 5.7 Earthquake

The 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms 5.7 earthquake occurred in a seismotectonic setting of moderate earthquake. The northwest-trending Xiangfan-Guangji fault （XFG） does not enter into the epicenter vicinity, but the northeast-trending Ruichang-Wuning fault （RWF） as a regional fault extends to the epicenter nearby, appearing as the Ruichang basin and its marginal faults. Tilting of the Ruichang Basin （RCB） in the Quaternary was controlled by the RCB southeast- marginal, buried fault （RSMBF）. Shallow geophysical survey reveals that the RSMBF caused an offset of the reflection layers. Drill hole columnar section demonstrates that there are about 10-12 m displacement in the lower section of the middle-Pleistocene Series along the RSMBF, but no disruption is found in the upper section of the middle-Pleistocene Series. The RSMBF not only has activity in the Quaternary, but also coincides with the nodal plane I from the focal mechanism of the Jiujiang- Ruichang Ms 5.7 earthquake. This evidence, including aftershock distribution and isoseismic lines, strongly suggests that the RSMBF might be the seismogenic tectonics. The RWF is discontinuous at the surface, and consists of three en echelon Quaternary basins, which are the Ruichang, Fanzhen and Wuning basins. Three moderate earthquakes, the Fanzhen ML 4.9 earthquake, the Yejiapu ML 4.1 earthquake and the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms 5.7 earthquake, have happened in the basins since 1995. The seismogenic tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms 5.7 earthquake is not isolated, but may be controlled by the RWF at depth, the slip of which causes the accumulation of energy for earthquake occurrence.

Discussion on the Precise Relocation and Seismo-Tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Earthquake

Based on relocating the Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake sequence which occurred on November 26, 2005 in Jiangxi Province with the double-difference （DD） algorithm and master event technique, the paper discusses the focal mechanism of the main shock （MsS.7） and the probable seismo-tectonics. The precise relocation results indicate that the average horizontal error is 0.31kin in a EW direction and 0.40kin in a NS direction, and the average depth error is 0.48kin. The focal depths vary from 8kin to 14kin, with the predominant distribution at 10kin - 12kin. The epicenter of the main shock is relocated to be 29.69^oN, 115.74^oE and the focal depth is about 10.Skin. Combining the predominant distribution of the earthquake sequence, the focal mechanism of the main shock and the tectonic conditions of N-E- and NW-strike faults growth in the seismic region, we infer that the main shock of the earthquake sequence was caused by a NW striking buried fault in the Rnichang basin. The nature of seismic faults needs to be further explored.

Shear-wave Splitting of Aftershocks of the M_S 5.7 Jiujiang-Ruichang Earthquake

Shear wave splitting is studied based on the digital waveforms of three seismic stations DJS, SZD and WUJ, which were set up after the Jiujiang-Ruichang MS5.7 earthquake of November 26, 2005 around the epicenter area. The result shows that the time delays of slow shear waves of the DJS station, which is not far from the epicenter and where the distribution of faults is complex near the station, are relatively larger and the polarization directions of fast shear waves are not concentrated; the predominant polarization direction of fast shear waves of WUJ station, with single fault distributed nearby, has a difference of 35° to the strike of the fault and is inconsistent with the direction of regional principal compressive stress. The predominant polarization direction of fast shear waves of SZD station with no faults nearby is in accordance with regional principal compressive stress. There is no obvious regular relationshipship between the delay time and the focal depth.

Equivalent series system to model a multiple friction pendulum system with numerous sliding interfaces for seismic analyses

Current structural analysis software programs offer few if any applicable device-specifi c hysteresis rules or nonlinear elements to simulate the precise mechanical behavior of a multiple friction pendulum system(MFPS) with numerous sliding interfaces.Based on the concept of subsystems,an equivalent series system that adopts existing nonlinear elements with parameters systematically calculated and mathematically proven through rigorous derivations is proposed.The aim is to simulate the characteristics of sliding motions for an MFPS isolation system with numerous concave sliding interfaces without prior knowledge of detailed information on the mobilized forces at various sliding stages.An MFPS with numerous concave sliding interfaces and one articulated or rigid slider located between these interfaces is divided into two subsystems: the fi rst represents the concave sliding interfaces above the slider,and the second represents those below the slider.The equivalent series system for the entire system is then obtained by connecting those for each subsystem in series.The equivalent series system is validated by comparing numerical results for an MFPS with four sliding interfaces obtained from the proposed method with those from a previous study by Fenz and Constantinou.Furthermore,these numerical results demonstrate that an MFPS isolator with numerous concave sliding interfaces,which may have any number of sliding interfaces,is a good isolation device to protect structures from earthquake damage through appropriate designs with controllable mechanisms.

Time derivative of earthquake acceleration

Unlike acceleration, velocity, and displacement, the time derivative ofacceleration (TDoA) of ground motion has not been extensively studied. In this paper, the basiccharacteristics of TDoA are evaluated based on records from the 1999 Chi-Chi, earthquake (Mw 7.6)and one of its aftershocks (Mw 6.2). It is found that the maximum TDoA at a free-field station wasover 31,200 cm/s3 (31.8 g/s); and the duration of 'strong' TDoA, between the first and the last timepoints exceeding 2,000 cm/s3 (2 g/s), was almost one minute near the epicenter area. Since groundTDoA sensors are not commonly available, the time series are calculated by direct numericaldifferentiation of acceleration time series. Relative error analysis shows that the error isnon-transitive and total error is within 4%. The density function of TDoA amplitude, frequencycontent and spatial distribution of peak ground jerk (PGJ) are evaluated. The study also includesexamination of some TDoA responses from a seven-story building and comparison of ground TDoA withthe limit TDoA used in the transportation industry for ride comfort. Some potential impacts of TDoAon humans have also been reviewed.

GPS measured static and kinematic offsets at near and far field of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

The Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that hit the mainland Japan on 11 th March, 2011 had resulted a devastating Tsunami due to an active thrusting between the Pacific and the North American Plates. Static and kinematic offsets at the offshore epicentre of the Mw 9.0 event remain unanswered and being investigated along with their near and far field limiting distances from the epicentre. Accordingly, offset measurements from 60 continuously operating IGS and GEONET GNSS stations were radially classified from the epicentre and interpreted with analytical models to find their linear offset decay rates. Co-and post-seismic static positional anomaly offsets of sixty days show almost all near field stations had strong or appreciable eastward or south eastward static shifts. Near stations(<250 km) showed both kinematic and static offsets. GEONET station ’0175’ showed maximum resultant static offset of-4.5 m, which diminishes approximately 1-2 cm at far sites like SMST and AIRA. Characteristic decay duration(’b’) of the mean kinematic co-seismic shift(’a’)of near field stations was 17.28 s during earthquake hours with an EW component shift >1.5 m. Spatial models of projected N-S static and kinematic offsets show their asymmetrical distributions around the epicentre with maximum model offset of-1.84 m displaced towards south at-45 km north of the epicentre. The Tohoku-Oki earthquake produced a resultant kinematic offset of-10.2 m towards East at its offshore epicentre;while the estimated near field static offset is ~9.82 m. However, both estimates are bigger than double the resultant offset measured value(~4.3 m) in the Japanese mainland using GPS. The difference in the kinematic and static near field offsets highlight that the near surface had elastic or in-elastic kinematic strain dissipation as against the lithospheric level viscoelastic static response, which resulted rapid kinematic strain release(1.12 cm/km)within the limiting radius of ~220 km from the Tohoku-Oki epicentre.

Co-seismic deformation derived from GPS observations during April 20th,2013 Lushan Earthquake,Sichuan,China

We process the standard 30 s, static GPS data and the 1 s, high-rate GPS （HRGPS） data provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China with GAMIT/GLOBK software package, and obtain the co- seismic displacements of near field and far field, and the epoch-by-epoch time series of HRGPS during Lushan earthquake. GPS data from about 20 sites in Sichuan province, which located between 40 and 450 km from the epicenter, are analyzed so as to study the characteristics of the static displacements and the dynamic crustal defor- mations, with periods ranging from several minutes to over a month. The result shows that： the static displacements caused by Lushan earthquake are limited to several centi- meters; the nearest station SCTQ at 43 km from the epi- center has the largest static displacement of about 2 cm, while the other stations generally have insignificant dis- placements of less than 5 mm. the stations in the east ofSichuan-Yunnan region shifts 5-10 mm toward the southwest, and the stations in the middle-west of Sichuan Basin moves indistinctively 1-2 mm toward the northwest; station SCTQ has the largest kinematic displacement of about 4 and 3 cm peak-to-peak on the north and east component, respectively, and is much greater than the static permanent displacement; for the stations located at a distance greater than 150 km from the epicenter, the kinematic motions are generally insignificant; exception- ally, station SCNC and station SCSN in central Sichuan Basin have significant kinematic motions although they are more than 200 km away from the epicenter.

Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the September 16^th,2019 Zhangye MS5.0 Earthquake,Gansu,China

To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides,the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017,indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EWdirection linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017,and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake,indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake.

Analysis of Abnormal Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the Menyuan MS6.4 Earthquake by GPS Continuous Data

In order to study the characteristics of crustal deformation around the epicenter before the 2016 M_S6. 4 Menyuan earthquake,the GPS continuous stations of the period from 2010 to 2016 were selected according to the observation data of the tectonic environment monitoring network in Chinese Mainland. The deformation characteristics of the crust before the earthquake were discussed through inter-station baseline time series analysis and the strain time series analysis in the epicentral region. The results show that a trend turn of the baseline movement state around the epicenter region occurred after 2014,and the movement after 2014 reflects an obvious decreasing trend of compressional deformation.During this period,the stress field energy was in a certain accumulation state. Since the beginning of 2014,the EW-component linear strain and surface strain rate weakened gradually before the earthquake. It shows that there was an obvious deformation deficit at the epicentral area in the past two years,which indicates that the region accumulated a high degree of strain energy before the earthquake. Therefore,there was a significant background change in the area before the earthquake. The results of the study can provide basic research data for understanding the seismogenic process and mechanism of this earthquake.

Horizontal crustal movement in Chinese mainland before and after the great Kunlun Mountain M=8.1 earthquake in 2001

The continuous GPS observation at the fiducial stations in the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) recorded the crustal movement of Chinese mainland before and after the great Kunlun Mountain earthquake of M=8.1 on November 14, 2001, especially the horizontal crustal movement in the western part of China. Based on the datum defined by a group of stable stations with small mutual horizontal displacements for a few years, the time series of horizontal displacements at fiducial stations were obtained. Significant anomalous horizontal displacements had appeared at the fiducial stations in the western part of China since early November 2000 and several earthquakes with the magnitudes about 6.0 had occurred in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces. The northward components of the horizontal displacement at the fiducial stations in west China had decreased signifi-cantly and even changed in the opposite sense since mid April 2001. After the earthquake, the northward dis-placements still decreased and there were significant westward displacements. The process of the crustal move-ment in the western part of Chinese mainland (in reference to east China) suggests that the main force source for this earthquake came from the northward pushing of the Indian plate. The great earthquake released a large amount of energy, as a result, the action applied by the Indian plate to Chinese mainland diminished significantly and after the great earthquake, the seismic activity in Chinese mainland decreased considerably until the end of 2002.

Piecewise linear representation of time series based on mean trend in sliding window

Seismic data show some important characteristics, such as big volume and strong timeliness. Specific to the time series data of earthquake precursory observations, a piecewise linear representation based on the sliding window mean value （PLR_MTSW） algorithm is proposed. With this algorithm, the mutation points can be identified accurately according to the rate Of mean value change, while the main features of time series are maintained well. This algorithm can also smooth the noise and improve the compression accuracy with sliding window. Meanwhile the local extreme points can be identified effectively according to the change of mean value trend within window.

Processes of the displacement field change of the 2009 April 6 M_W6.3 L'Aquila earthquake using persistent scatterer and small baseline methods

Using a time series method that combines both the persistent scatterer and small baseline approaches, we analyzed 9 scenes Envisat ASAR data over the L＇Aquila earthquake, and obtained a Shocke＇s displacement field and its evolution processes. The results show that： （1） Envisat ASAR clearly detected the whole processes of displacement field of the L＇Aquila earthquake, and distinct variations at different stages of the displacement field. （2） Preseismic creep displacement → displacement mutation when faulting → constantly slowed down after the earthquake. （3） The area of the strongest deformation and ground rupture was a low-lying oval depression region to the southeast. Surface faulting within a zone of about 22 km× 14 km, with an orientation of 135°, occurred along the NW-striking and SW-dipping Paganica-S. Demetrio normal fault. （4） In analyzing an area of about 54 km x 59 km, bounded by north-south axis to the epicenter, the displacement field has significant characteristics of a watershed： westward of the epicenter shows uplift with maximum of 130 mm in line-of-sight （LOS）, and east of the epicenter was a region with 220 mm of maximum subsidence in the LOS, concentrating on the rupture zone, the majority of which formed in the course of faulting and subsequence.

Characteristics of satellite-gravity variations in the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake

To study the characteristics of gravity variations in and near the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake,we used the geopotential-field models based on monthly data of the RI.~5 GRACE satellite to calculate the gravity changes. Here we present the patterns of annually cumulative variation, differentiatial variation and secular trend, as well as the continuous time-series at 4 characteristic sites during 2004 -2012. The result shows that the anomalous positive-to-negative transition zone, in which the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was located, did not show any new gravity change before the Lushan earthquake, though located in the same zone.

Long aseismic slip duration of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake based on GPS data

The Java earthquake occurred on July 17, 2006 with magnitude 7.8 associated to the subduction process of Indo-Australian plate and Sundaland block off southwestern coast of Java. We present postseismic deformation parameters of the 2006 Java earthquake analyzed using campaign GPS observation from 2006 to 2008 and continuous observation from 2007 to 2014. We use an analytical approach of logarithmic and exponential functions to model these GPS data. We find that the decay time in the order of hundreds of days after the mainshock as observed by 8 years＇ data after the mainshock for magnitude 7 earthquake is longer than a general megathrust earthquake event. Our findings suggest that the 2006 Java earthquake which is considered as ＂tsunami earthquake＂ most probably occurred in the region that has low rigidity and tends to continuously slip for long time periods.

Observation and analysis of geomagnetic abnormity associated with the M_S=5.7 Jiu-jiang-Ruichang earthquakeb

A three-component geomagnetic survey was carried out during the period from 2002 to 2004 in China including Jiujiang-Ruichang region. Comparing the ＂2005.0 surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂ created on the basis of the survey data with the ＂1970.0 surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂, we can see an obvious abnormity in the geomagnetic horizontal component within a range of about 100 km around the epicenter of the Ms=5.7 Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake occurred on November 26, 2005. After the earthquake, we carded out a repeated geomagnetic survey at 21 stations in the Jiujiang-Ruichang region and created a corresponding ＂2005.0 partially revised surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂. By comparing the above three models, analyzing the geomagnetic horizontal component at the profile in the Jiujiang-Ruichang region and quantitatively studying the geomagnetic data of every stations around the Ms=5.7 earthquake, we have obtained the geomagnetic abnormity associated with this earthquake. Then the geomagnetic abnormity and its relation with seismic activity are discussed in this paper.

Co-seismic deformation for the 2015 M_(W)7.8 Gorkha earthquake(Nepal)using near-field GPS data

Seasonal variations and common mode errors affect the precision of the Global Positioning System(GPS)time series.In this paper,we explore to improve the precision of coordinate time series,thereby providing a better detection of weak or transient deformation signals,particularly co-seismic signals.Based on 97 GPS stations,including the campaign and continuous GPS stations in Nepal and southern Tibet,we first consider seasonal variations and common errors,then obtain co-seismic deformation of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal and southern Tibet.Our co-seismic rupture model is characterized by a shallow ramp and a deeper detachment fault,in agreement with the relocated aftershock sequence.Our results indicate that the earthquake rupture is mainly distributed in the upper-crustal fault,and the maximum slip is up to 8.0 m at~15.0 km depth located in the approximate-80 km east of the epicenter.The average slip is more than 5 m,and the total modelled magnitude is M_(W)7.84,consistent with the observed seismic moment.Our rupture model for the 2015 Gorkha earthquake suggests that the rupture zone is not only in the upper crustal Main Himalayan Thrust(MHT),but also spreads to the northern segment of the MHT.

Variation of Altitude Observed on the Occasion of the Tohoku Earthquake (M = 9.0) Occurred on March 11, 2011

Since October 1, 2010, a GPS receiver is put into operation at Tokai (Japan) in an experiment on Neutrino Physics (T2K). A significant variation of the altitude was detected from the beginning of March 2011, so that it has made worthwhile to investigate the possibility that such variations could be correlated to the Tohoku earthquake. In order to investigate in details this possibility, we analyzed the GPS data collected during 2011 by GEONet the GPS Earth Observation Network (GEONET). GEONET is the GPS network of Japan and consists of 1240 permanent stations. Preliminary results of the analysis seemed to show ten days before the earthquake, some possible anomalous behaviors of the stations. These anomalous behaviors were particularly relevant for stations of the network near the epicentral area. While co-seismic and post-seismic variations are widely expected, the anomalies recorded about ten days before the earthquake could be seriously considered among short-term precursors of the earthquake. In order to confirm this possibility, more detailed studies have been performed. In particular, GEONET currently makes available only daily solutions of the stations coordinates. On the contrary, it is very important to improve the time resolution just to understand the features of the anomalies till the last hours before the Earthquake. For this reason, we have performed an analysis to evaluate the coordinates and movement on hourly basis so improving the time resolution.

Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Crustal Horizontal Deformation in the South Segment of Longmenshan Fault Zone Revealed by GPS Data after the Wenchuan Earthquake

In order to obtain deformation parameters in the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone,Euler datum transformation and the least square collocation for data interpolation and smoothing are used to process GPS displacement time series data in the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone,and the rigid and elastic-plastic block motion model is used to calculate the strain parameters in each subarea. Conjoint analysis of displacement,velocity of each station and strain parameters of each subarea reveals that the influence of the Wenchuan earthquake on the south segment of Longmenshan fault zone increases from southeast to northwest,causing a highest deformation rate 6 times the background value and heightening the influence of the hidden faults on the difference of the earth surface along its two sides,which leads to the seismic risk of the southern segment increasing from north to south. The comparison of seismic risk among subareas based on the tectonic and seismicity background indicates that the most dangerous area is on the southeast of Longmenshan faults,and the background strain accumulation and the promoting effect of the Wenchuan earthquake advanced the occurrence of Lushan earthquake and the sinistral strike-slip on the rupture plane. The Wenchuan earthquake also caused a slight two-year long continuous strain release in the south segment of Xianshuihe fault,but the influence is far less than the effect of the compressive strain caused by the Sichuan-Yunnan block.

SeisGuard: A Software Platform to Establish Automatically an Earthquake Forecasting Model

SeisGuard, a system for analyzing earthquake precursory data, is a software platform to search for earthquake precursory information by processing geophysical data from different sources to establish automatically an earthquake forecasting model. The main function of this system is to analyze and process the deformation, fluid, electromagnetic and other geophysical field observing data from ground-based observation, as well as space-based observation. Combined station and earthquake distributions, geological structure and other information, this system can provide a basic software platform for earthquake forecasting research based on spatiotemporal fusion. The hierarchical station tree for data sifting and the interaction mode have been innovatively developed in this SeisGuard system to improve users’ working efficiency. The data storage framework designed according to the characteristics of different time series can unify the interfaces of different data sources, provide the support of data flow, simplify the management and usage of data, and provide foundation for analysis of big data. The final aim of this development is to establish an effective earthquake forecasting model combined all available information from ground-based observations to space-based observations.