A Deep Learning Approach for Forecasting Thunderstorm Gusts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.

On the Existence of Subharmonic Screech in Choked Circular Jets from a Sharp-Edged Orifice

Experiments are performed in choked circular hot and cold nitrogen jets issuing from a 2.44 cm diameter sharp-edged orifice at a fully expanded jet Mach number of 1.85 in an effort to investigate the character of screech phenomenon. The stagnation temperature of the cold and the hot jets are 299 K and 319 K respectively. The axial distribution of the centerline Mach number was obtained with a pitot tube, while the screech data (frequency and amplitude) at different axial and radial stations were measured with the aid of microphones. The fundamental screech frequency of the hot jet is slightly increased relative to that of the cold jet. It is concluded that temperature effects on the screech amplitude are manifested with regard to the fundamental and the subharmonic even at relatively small temperature range considered.

Evolution Mechanism of a Severe Squall Line Triggered by the Coupling of a Sea Breeze Front and a Gust Front

In the present study, a severe squall line(SL) was analyzed by using intensive observational surface data and radar monitoring products. In this process, mesoscale convergence lines, such as the sea breeze front(SBF), gust front and dry line, served as the main triggering and strengthening factors. The transition from convection triggering to the formation of the initial shape was mainly affected by the convergence line of the SBF, which combined with thermal convection to form the main parts of the SL. In the later stage, the convergence line of the gust front merged with other convergence lines to form a series of strong convective cells. The SBF had good indicative significance in terms of severe convective weather warnings. The suitable conditions of heat, water vapor and vertical wind shear on the Shandong Peninsula were beneficial to the maintenance of the SL. Before SL occurrence, tropopause folding strengthened, which consequently enhanced the baroclinic property in the middle and upper troposphere. The high sensible heat flux at the surface easily produced a positive potential vorticity anomaly in the low layer, resulting in convective instability, which was conducive to the maintenance of these processes. In the system, when precipitation particles passed through the unsaturated air layer, they underwent strong evaporation, melting or sublimation, and the cooling effect formed negative buoyancy, which accelerated the sinking of the air and promoted the sustained development of the surface gale. Together with the development of lowlevel mesocyclones, the air pressure decreased rapidly, which was conducive to gale initiation.

DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF GUST RESPONSEALLEVIATION CONTROL SYSTEM FOR HELICOPTERS

Gust response alleviation is very important for helicopters which have strong coupling and vibration. Gust disturbance not only influences the ride quality and the precision of the weapon delivery, but also affects to the structural fatigue load and the strength. The method of an optimal control law to suppress the gust disturbance for helicopters is presented. The optimization requires the minimization of the vertical overload at the pilot′s seat, the attitude variation and the control energy consumption under the gust disturbance. Based on the original control system, the new system can be easily realized by adding a vertical speed feedback passage. In order to develop the real-time operational flight control system, the optimized control law is written in C language. The hybrid simulations prove that the performance of gust response alleviation and the efficiency of digitalization are satisfactory.

Atypical Occlusion Process Caused by the Merger of a Sea-breeze Front and Gust Front

An atypical occlusion process that occurred in North China on 14 July 2011 is studied based on both observations and a real-data Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model simulation. The results show that this atypical occlusion process was significantly different from the traditional, synoptic-scale occlusion process that occurs within extratropical cyclones. It was caused by the merger of two cold-type mesoscale fronts. One of the fronts developed from the gust front of convective storms, while the other was a sea-breeze front. As the two fronts moved towards each other, the warm air between them was squeezed and separated from the surface. An atypical occluded front was formed when the two fronts merged, with the warm air forced aloft. This kind of occlusion is termed a ＂merger＂ process, different from the well-known ＂catch-up＂ and ＂wrap-up＂ processes. Moreover, local convection was found to be enhanced during the merger process, with severe convective weather produced in the merger area.

Characteristics of daily extreme wind gusts on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Severe wind is a major natural hazard and a main driver of deserdficadon on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Generally, studies of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau＇s wind climatology focus on mean wind speeds and its gust speeds have been seldom investigated. Here, we used observed daily maximum gust speeds from a 95- station network over a 5-year period （2008-2012） to analyze the characteristics of extreme wind speeds and directions by fitting Weibull and Gumbel distributions. The results indicated the spatial distribution of extreme wind speeds and their direction on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is highly variable, with its western portion prone to greater mean speeds of extreme wind gusts than its eastern portion. Maximum extreme wind speeds of 30.9, 33.0, and 32.2 m/s were recorded at three stations along the Qinghai Tibet Railway. Severe winds occurred mostly from November to April, caused primarily by the westerly jet stream. Terrain greatly enhances the wind speeds. Our spatial analysis of wind speed data showed that the wind speeds increased exponentially with an increasing altitude. We also assessed the local wind hazard by calculating the return periods of maximum wind gusts from the observational data based on the statistical extreme value distributions of these wind speeds. Further attention should be given to those stations where the yearly maximum daily extreme wind speed increased at a rate greater than that of mean value of daily extreme wind speeds. Severe extreme wind events in these regions of the plateau are likely to become more frequent. Consequently, building structural designers working in these areas should use updated extreme wind data rather than relying on past data alone.

A simulation-based study on longitudinal gust response of flexible flapping wings

Winged animals such as insects are capable of flying and surviving in an unsteady and unpredictable aerial environment.They generate and control aerodynamic forces by flapping their flexible wings.While the dynamic shape changes of their flapping wings are known to enhance the efficiency of their flight,they can also affect the stability of a flapping wing flyer under unpredictable disturbances by responding to the sudden changes of aerodynamic forces on the wing.In order to test the hypothesis,the gust response of flexible flapping wings is investigated numerically with a specific focus on the passive maintenance of aerodynamic forces by the wing flexibility.The computational model is based on a dynamic flight simulator that can incorporate the realistic morphology,the kinematics,the structural dynamics,the aerodynamics and the fluid-structure interactions of a hovering hawkmoth.The longitudinal gusts are imposed against the tethered model of a hovering hawkmoth with flexible flapping wings.It is found that the aerodynamic forces on the flapping wings are affected by the gust,because of the increase or decrease in relative wingtip velocity or kinematic angle of attack.The passive shape change of flexible wings can,however,reduce the changes in the magnitude and direction of aerodynamic forces by the gusts from various directions,except for the downward gust.Such adaptive response of the flexible structure to stabilise the attitude can be classified into the mechanical feedback,which works passively with minimal delay,and is of great importance to the design of bio-inspired flapping wings for micro-air vehicles.

Near ground wind characteristics during typhoon Meari:Turbulence intensities, gust factors, and peak factors

Wind data were collected during the 2011 typhoon Meari at heights of 10, 20, 30, and 40 m above the ground using a 40 m high anemometer tower in the coastal area near Shanghai Pudong International Airport. Wind speeds and directions, turbulence intensities, gust factors, and peaks were analyzed using the time records of wind speed. The results show that turbulence intensity components in longitudinal, lateral, and vertical directions decrease with mean wind speed, regardless of elevations, and the turbulence intensities are in a linear relationship with mean wind speeds. The ratios of three turbulence intensity components(i.e. Iu, Iv, Iw) at heights of 10, 20 and 40 m were calculated and equal to be 1:0.88:0.50, 1:0.84:0.57, and 1:0.9:0.49, respectively. In addition, the gust factors in three directions exhibit a reduction with increasing mean wind speed. The peak factors at different heights show a similar trend and slightly decrease with mean wind speed; average peak factors for all 10-min data from Typhoon Meari are 2.43, 2.48, and 2.47, respectively.

Operational Safety Assessment of a High-Speed Train Exposed to the Strong Gust Wind

The operational safety characteristics of trains exposed to a strong wind have caused great concern in recent years.In the present paper,the effect of the strong gust wind on a high-speed train is investigated.A typical gust wind model for any wind angle,named“Chinese hat gust wind model”,was first constructed,and an algorithm for computing the aerodynamic loads was elaborated accordingly.A vehicle system dynamic model was then set up in order to investigate the vehicle system dynamic characteristics.The assessment of the operational safety has been conducted by means of characteristic wind curves(CWC).As some of the parameters of the wind-train system were difficult to measure,we also investigated the impact of the uncertain system parameters on the CWC.Results indicate that,the descending order of the operational safety index of the vehicle for each wind angle is 90°-60°-120°-30°-150°,and the worst condition for the operational safety occurs when the wind angle reaches around 90°.According to our findings,the gust factor and aerodynamic side force coefficient have great impact on the critical wind speed.Thus,these two parameters require special attention when considering the operational safety of a railway vehicle subjected to strong gust wind.

Role of the interaction between a gust front and a mesoscale air mass boundary in convection initiation:a case study

The local convection initiation(CI)mechanisms of a convective case that occurred on5 August 2017 in Cangzhou,northern China,were studied using Doppler radar and automatic weather station observational analysis,along with Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System assimilation analysis.During the convective process,a gust front appeared ahead of two existing convective systems,respectively.In the warm and moist environment ahead of the gust fronts in the south,there was a mesoscale air mass boundary.With the process of a gust front moving southward,approaching the mesoscale air mass boundary,the convergence intensified in the area between the gust front and the mesoscale air mass boundary.Finally,the strong convergent updraft exceeded the level of free convection and triggered the new convection.

Numerical Analysis of the Effects of Periodic Gust Flow on the Wake Structure of Ventilated Supercavities

A computational model is established to investigate the effects of a periodic gust flow on the wake structure of ventilated supercavities.The effectiveness of the computational model is validated by comparing with available experimental data.Benefited from this numerical model,the vertical velocity characteristics in the entire flow field can be easily monitored and analyzed under the action of a gust generator;further,the unsteady evolution of the flow parameters of the closed region of the supercavity can be captured in any location.To avoid the adverse effects of mounting struts in the experiments and to obtain more realistic results,the wake structure of a ventilated supercavity without mounting struts is investigated.Unsteady changes in the wake morphology and vorticity distribution pattern of the ventilated supercavity are determined.The results demonstrate that the periodic swing of the gust generator can generate a gust flow and,therefore,generate a periodic variation of the ventilated cavitation numberσ.At the peakσ,a re-entrant jet closure appears in the wake of the ventilated supercavity.At the valleyσ,a twin-vortex closure appears in the wake of the ventilated supercavity.For the forward facing model,the twin vortex appears as a pair of centrally rolled-up vortices,due to the closure of vortex is affected by the structure.For the backward facing model,however,the twin vortex appears alternately as a pair of centrally rolled-up vortices and a pair of centrally rolled-down vortices,against the periodic gust flow.

Gustiness and Coherent Structure of Strong Winds and Their Role in Dust Emission and Entrainment

After the passage of a cold front, spring in northern China, the outbreak of strong wind is often accompanied by dust emissions. Through analyses of data in the atmospheric boundary layer during a typical case, it is revealed there are rather regular gust wave packets superimposed on the basic strong wind flow. The gust-wind wave packets have a period equal to around 3 6 rains and possess coherent structure. As the vertical transport of momentum is decomposed into separate parts by （a） basic flow, （b） gust-wind, and （c） turbulence, they are all in a downwards direction at the lower levels of the atmospheric boundary layer during strong wind periods. However, （a） is the largest, while （b） and （c） are comparable. All these are very different from the case of normal weather. Besides, the friction velocity at the ground surface is also much larger than that of normal weather and should be corrected by taking the contributions of the basic flow and gust-wind into account.The strong basic flow with descending motion is very favorable for soil erosion and sand/dust emissions, but suppresses the entrainment of dust particles by keeping them within the bottom levels of the atmospheric boundary layer. Owing to the coherent structure of gust-wind, dust particles can effectively overcome the systematic descending air motion and penetrate into the middle and upper levels of the atmospheric boundary layer, and then propagate further and diffuse into the troposphere where ascending air motion prevails.

Modeling Technique of the Aircraft Unsteady Aerodynamics Due to the Travelling Gust

The main equations for computing the unsteady aerodynamics of the aircraft undergoing the travelling gust are derived.Research and simulation on a specific example aircraft are performed,the results indicate that the modeling technique of the aircraft unsteady aerodynamics is correct,and it can meet the requirements due to the head⁃on and tail⁃on travelling gusts.

Adaptive Wind Gust and Associated Gust-factor Model for the Gust-producing Weather over the Northern South China Sea

Wind gusts are common environmental hazards that can damage buildings,bridges,aircraft,and cruise ships and interrupt electric power distribution,air traffic,waterway transport and port operations.Accurately predicting peak wind gusts in numerical models is essential for saving lives and preventing economic losses.This study investigates the climatology of peak wind gusts and their associated gust factors(GFs)using observations in the coastal and open ocean of the northern South China Sea(NSCS),where severe gust-producing weather occurs throughout the year.The stratified climatology demonstrates that the peak wind gust and GF vary with seasons and particularly with weather types.Based on the inversely proportional relationship between the GF and mean wind speed(MWS),a variety of GF models are constructed through least squares regression analysis.Peak gust speed(PGS)forecasts are obtained through the GF models by multiplying the GFs by observed wind speeds rather than forecasted wind speeds.The errors are thus entirely due to the representation of the GF models.The GF models are improved with weather-adaptive GFs,as evaluated by the stratified MWS.Nevertheless,these weather-adaptive GF models show negative bias for predicting stronger PGSs due to insufficient data representation of the extreme wind gusts.The evaluation of the above models provides insight into maximizing the performance of GF models.This study further proposes a stratified process for forecasting peak wind gusts for routine operations.

多频率组合波形阵风场模拟与测量研究

基于数值模拟方法选取设定FL-51风洞阵风发生器的装置参数,如发生器叶片的数量、展长、弦长及间距等。发生器采用液压摆动缸独立驱动形式,可模拟正弦波、三角波及随机波等多种波形的多频率组合运动,同时能够减少安装传动件,并提升发生器性能。通过阵风场校测结果表明:叶片能够实现摆动频率为0 Hz~15 Hz,在校测范围内发生器产生的正弦流场较均匀;在来流风速40 m/s、叶片摆动频率为10 Hz、摆角为15°时,最大阵风幅值为8.5 m/s。地面测试与流场校测结果表明:该文所提出的阵风场模拟技术可以实现低速风洞多频率多波形组合运动,为风洞试验提供复杂的阵风流场。

大型低速风洞全模阵风试验支撑装置研制与验证

为适应日益增多的低速风洞全模阵风试验的需要,发展阵风试验技术,在航空工业气动院FL-10风洞研制了一套双自由度支撑装置,该装置放开了模型升沉和俯仰方向的较大运动自由度,实现了飞机刚体运动模态的模拟。装置主要结构为“钢梁+小滑车”,小滑车可在钢梁上自由滑动,避免了采用滑轨形式导致模型运动过程中出现卡滞现象;采用整流翼型与风洞上下壁板连接,减小了对风洞的破坏,降低了对风洞流场的影响;装置升沉运动高度为3 m,俯仰角范围可达±34°;升沉摩擦因数小,机构变形量小,具备模型防护功能。应用该装置成功开展了民机阵风载荷减缓试验,证明了装置设计合理,可以应用于低速全模阵风试验。

鄂东春季两次极端雷暴大风过程环境及雷达回波特征对比分析

2021年5月10日和2022年3月16日,湖北省东部分别发生14级和12级的极端雷暴大风天气过程(简称“5·10”和“3·16”过程)。本文利用地面加密气象站的观测资料和ERA5逐小时0.25°×0.25°再分析资料及多普勒天气雷达等资料,对比分析了两次过程产生的环境背景和雷达回波特征。结果表明:(1)两次过程均受川东低槽和中低层低涡东部暖切变的影响,呈现上干冷下暖湿、低层辐合高层辐散的特征,表征雷暴大风的物理量如对流有效位能、下沉对流有效位能等极端异常,环境场有利于极端雷暴大风发生。(2)两次过程均由冷池出流形成阵风锋触发雷暴大风,但“5·10”过程还受其他地面中尺度辐合影响。(3)两次过程强风暴均由多个单体合并发展而成,“5·10”风暴高度更高,而“3·16”则强度更强,“5·10”表现出小弓状回波及其后侧弱回波通道特征;“3·16”弱回波区清晰,表现出类超级单体特征。(4)速度图上均表现出低仰角大风区和小尺度的辐散特征。“5·10”过程以低仰角大风区为主,大风由超低空急流叠加下击暴流造成;“3·16”过程则以中层径向辐合和最大反射率因子的快速下降特征为主,为下击暴流大风。

超高桥塔的气弹模型风洞试验及其等效静力风荷载

为研究超高桥塔的气弹模型风洞试验方法及其等效静力风荷载,根据某实际工程中的超高桥塔建立了有限元模型,进行了动力特性计算,进而设计了相应的气弹模型,并开展了风洞试验。在此基础上,开展了超高桥塔风致振动的非线性时程计算,并基于阵风荷载因子法,对比了以位移、内力和应力为单一目标的超高桥塔的等效静力风荷载。结果表明:斜风作用下的桥塔风致振动比较显著,其影响随着风速的增大而愈加明显;当风向角为75°~90°时,超高桥塔将在风速为35~50 m·s^(-1)的区间发生顺桥向的侧弯涡振,但幅值较小;基于应力的阵风荷载因子比基于位移或内力的阵风荷载因子更加稳定,这使得基于应力的等效静力风荷载要优于基于位移或内力的等效静力风荷载,比较适合于超高桥塔。

廊坊市雷暴大风多普勒雷达特征指标预警应用分析

利用北京、天津和沧州多普勒天气雷达对2010—2019年廊坊市发生的29次雷暴大风天气过程中的阵风锋、径向速度大值区、垂直累积液态水含量(VIL)≥40 kg·m^(-2)等预警指标进行验证分析,结果表明:51.9%的站次出现了阵风锋,其中61.0%的雷暴大风出现在主体回波移动前方中部到右侧;17 m·s^(-1)以上大风速区作为预警指标,预警的平均提前量达47.2 min。100%的弓形回波雷暴大风出现前上游及可能影响区域存在≥17 m·s^(-1)的大风速区,以此发布预警可提前37.1 min;71.4%的雷暴大风站点上空或10 km范围内VIL≥40 kg·m^(-2),平均预警提前量最高,达到52.7 min;依据带状回波前侧或右前侧出现阵风锋发布预警的平均提前量为60.6 min。73.7%的块状回波雷暴大风天气上游及可能影响区域有≥17 m·s^(-1)的大风速区。结合上游及可能影响区域≥17 m·s^(-1)和≥20 m·s^(-1)大风速区、阵风锋、VIL≥40 kg·m^(-2)出现位置可以提前30~60 min发布雷暴大风预警信号,且可更加精准地预测灾害性大风的落区、出现时间和强度。

极端运行阵风下风电叶片动力学响应特性流固耦合分析

基于CFD及有限单元法,利用ANSYS Workbench平台的Fluent与Transient Structural模块,对NREL 5 MW风电机组复合材料叶片在极端运行阵风下的气动特性及结构力学特性进行研究。结果表明:风轮气动载荷受极端运行阵风的影响较大,极端运行阵风作用下,风力机转矩及轴向推力等随风速的变化出现较大幅值的响应且响应峰值较阵风峰值均有所提前;叶片位移随风速的变化在峰值风速的前后出现大小两个峰值;在风速达到峰值时,与均匀来流阶段相比,叶片表面应力整体增幅较大。