Low-carbon generation expansion planning considering uncertainty of renewable energy at multi-time scales

With the development of carbon electricity,achieving a low-carbon economy has become a prevailing and inevitable trend.Improving low-carbon expansion generation planning is critical for carbon emission mitigation and a lowcarbon economy.In this paper,a two-layer low-carbon expansion generation planning approach considering the uncertainty of renewable energy at multiple time scales is proposed.First,renewable energy sequences considering the uncertainty in multiple time scales are generated based on the Copula function and the probability distribution of renewable energy.Second,a two-layer generation planning model considering carbon trading and carbon capture technology is established.Specifically,the upper layer model optimizes the investment decision considering the uncertainty at a monthly scale,and the lower layer one optimizes the scheduling considering the peak shaving at an hourly scale and the flexibility at a 15-minute scale.Finally,the results of different influence factors on low-carbon generation expansion planning are compared in a provincial power grid,which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Power system planning with high renewable energy penetration considering demand response

Electric system planning with high variable renewable energy(VRE)penetration levels has attracted great attention world-wide.Electricity production of VRE highly depends on the weather conditions and thus involves large variability,uncertainty,and low-capacity credit.This gives rise to significant challenges for power system planning.Currently,many solutions are proposed to address the issue of operational flexibility inadequacy,including flexibility retrofit of thermal units,inter-regional transmission,electricity energy storage,and demand response(DR).Evidently,the performance and the cost of various solutions are different.It is relevant to explore the optimal portfolio to satisfy the flexibility requirement for a renewable dominated system and the role of each flexibility source.In this study,the value of diverse DR flexibilities was examined and a stochastic investment planning model considering DR is proposed.Two types of DRs,namely interrupted DR and transferred DR,were modeled.Chronological load and renewable generation curves with 8760 hours within a whole year were reduced to 4 weekly scenarios to accelerate the optimization.Clustered unit commitment constraints for accommodating variability of renewables were incorporated.Case studies based on IEEE RTS-96 system are reported to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and the DR potential to avoid energy storage investment.

Research on the development and planning of renewable energy in Tibet

With the rapid social and economic development of the Tibet Autonomous Region,the situation in regard to energy supply and demand is increasingly tense.Meanwhile,the development of renewable energy in Tibet has been given considerable practical significance by its peculiar ecological environment.Given the complementarity of renewable energies in Tibet,using the method of factor analysis,we derived four major factors:level of economic development,social development,industrial development,and energy endowment,which help to evaluate development conditions in different regions of Tibet.Treating these four factors equally,we used the hierarchical clustering method to determine the order of regional development.Thus we acquire a three-stage planning project for renewable energy.In the first stage,Lhasa plays a leading role in promoting the development of renewable energy,particularly that based on solar and wind energy.There are two phases in the second stage,the first being to simultaneously develop solar and wind energy in Xigaze and Nyingchi.The second is to develop solar and wind energy in accordance with the time of year in Qamdo,Nagqu,and Ali,with 1.145billion kWh electricity to be generated.The third stage is to develop energy production in Lhoka Prefecture,with 1.369billion kWh electricity to be generated.At the end of the three-stage project,consumption of available electricity will have reached 4.045 billion kwh,with major social and economic benefits.

Power generation expansion planning approach considering carbon emission constraints

Decarbonization of the power sector in China is an essential aspect of the energy transition process to achieve carbon neutrality.The power sector accounts for approximately 40%of China’s total CO_(2) emissions.Accordingly,collaborative optimization in power generation expansion planning(GEP)simultaneously considering economic,environmental,and technological concerns as carbon emissions is necessary.This paper proposes a collaborative mixedinteger linear programming optimization approach for GEP.This minimizes the power system’s operating cost to resolve emission concerns considering energy development strategies,flexible generation,and resource limitations constraints.This research further analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of current GEP techniques.Results show that the main determinants of new investment decisions are carbon emissions,reserve margins,resource availability,fuel consumption,and fuel price.The proposed optimization method is simulated and validated based on China’s power system data.Finally,this study provides policy recommendations on the flexible management of traditional power sources,the market-oriented mechanism of new energy sources,and the integration of new technology to support the attainment of carbon-neutral targets in the current energy transition process.

A GIS Methodology for Planning Sustainable Renewable Energy Deployment in Portugal

A Geographical Information System (GIS) methodology was developed to?identify and characterize suitable areas for deploying renewable energy projects. The methodology enables to compute the sustainable renewable energy potential in an area under study and can be implemented for different spatial scales, ranging from local to national levels, while operating with different restriction layers. This GIS-based method has been successfully applied to wind energy deployment studies in Continental Portugal and other foreign countries?(e.g. Venezuela, Mozambique among others). Results from several development plans using this methodology enable to conclude it is an adequate tool for planning sustainable renewable energy deployment both for onshore and offshore regions.

Regional Renewable Energy Optimization Based on Economic Benefits and Carbon Emissions

With increasing renewable energy utilization,the industry needs an accurate tool to select and size renewable energy equipment and evaluate the corresponding renewable energy plans.This study aims to bring new insights into sustainable and energy-efficient urban planning by developing a practical method for optimizing the production of renewable energy and carbon emission in urban areas.First,we provide a detailed formulation to calculate the renewable energy demand based on total energy demand.Second,we construct a dual-objective optimization model that represents the life cycle cost and carbon emission of renewable energy systems,after which we apply the differential evolution algorithmto solve the optimization result.Finally,we conduct a case study in Qingdao,China,to demonstrate the effectiveness of this optimizationmodel.Compared to the baseline design,the proposedmodel reduced annual costs and annual carbon emissions by 14.39%and 72.65%,respectively.These results revealed that dual-objective optimization is an effective method to optimize economic benefits and reduce carbon emissions.Overall,this study will assist energy planners in evaluating the impacts of urban renewable energy projects on the economy and carbon emissions during the planning stage.

新发展阶段城市地下空间开发利用发展战略研究

作为城市建设和国土空间资源的重要组成部分,城市地下空间开发利用在新发展阶段的地位和作用愈显突出。本文通过剖析新发展阶段的新需求和新问题,提出了城市地下空间开发利用的新发展策略。基于国土空间规划新体系,绿色、低碳、韧性新理念以及土地存量更新的新模式等新发展阶段的特征和要求,分析了城市高质量发展对地下空间开发利用的战略需求;提出了新发展阶段城市地下空间开发利用需要解决的一系列新生问题,包括国土空间资源禀赋调查评价不足、承载能力概念不清,城市地下空间的绿色低碳韧性挖潜不充分,城市地下基础设施资源配置不均衡、发展机理机制不明确等。在此基础上,从治理体系建设、资源智慧管理、规划理论方法、数据驱动范式、深层空间利用、存量空间重构、新区一体化开发及地铁域控制等8个方面阐释了新发展阶段城市地下空间开发利用的重点任务和发展建议,以期为实现城市地下空间的立法为本、规划引领、建设有序和智慧管理提供有益借鉴。

城市游径网络的非连续路段识别及空间活力推演

自组织游径网络的活力提升是城市更新规划的重要目标。由于老城区游径网络存在不连续性和断头路现象,居民游憩活动的舒适性受到了挑战,而游径网络的自组织性意味着自上而下的规划设计模式难以匹配市民需求。如何自下而上地推演游憩规划的空间活力,进而识别潜力地块,是提升城市游径网络品质的重要命题。文中以广州市老城区为案例,基于复杂网络理论,构建游径网络的非连续性和空间活力测度指标;以GPS轨迹数据识别既有游径网络的非连续区段,定量探讨了基于市民游憩行为的非连续路段空间的识别和城市更新改造项目的活化作用,推演更新项目实施带来的潜在影响。游径网络的非连续性分析表明,当前广州市老城区游径路段的非连续度总体较低,连接程度较好,但由于区位和历史遗留问题,仍有部分路段存在明显的非连续现象。城市游径网络的空间活力推演结果表明,城市更新项目对自组织游径网络会产生一定的正面影响,可依据推演分析来判定城市游憩品质提升项目的实施计划和日程。本研究从规划和交通维度出发,对城市的自组织特性进行了有益探索,弥补了“自上而下”式规划对城市自组织游径网络考虑不足的缺陷。

城市微更新背景下社区治理研究进展及实践模式探索

基于微更新的社区治理实践和研究是当下风景园林高质量发展的重要领域。利用CiteSpace进行知识图谱可视化和文献分析,审视和总结在空间更新背景下社区治理的演进过程,研究涵盖了空间更新背景下社区治理的概念界定、历程进展及研究热点分析。在实践领域,以笔者团队直接进行的代表性案例来探讨以社区花园为载体的参与式社区规划和治理模式,以及由此产生的深层机制的改变和对社会发育的影响。认为风景园林学科视角下的社区治理强调以立足自然空间生发的参与式社区规划为实践载体开展共建共治,未来研究与实践的关键领域是在地组织培育、社区治理数字化及共同体意识形成机制搭建等。

城市更新专项规划编制的内容体系构成与关键技术路径

城市更新专项规划是当前各地推进城市更新行动的重要抓手和新兴工具,其编制方法和工作路径正处于探索阶段。辨析城市更新专项规划兴起的背景与需求,对比分析北京、深圳、广州、重庆等地的规划编制经验,总结市区层面城市更新专项规划编制的主要做法与内容构成,详细剖析以存量空间资源统筹为核心的“本底识别—分类梳理—管控引导”规划编制技术路径,从实施流程、传导机制、落地工具等方面提出保障城市更新专项规划效用发挥的措施建议。

计及跨领域氢需求的电源低碳规划

大规模多领域的氢能应用会对电力负荷的规模、结构及分布等产生影响,进而对电源规划带来新的挑战。为此,文中提出一种考虑跨领域氢负荷的电源低碳规划模型。首先,计及工业、交通和供热领域的氢负荷,构建包含常规火电机组、碳捕集机组、新能源机组以及氢能系统的电-氢系统结构,并基于系统动力学理论对多领域的氢需求进行预测;其次,引入阶梯碳交易机制,在满足系统常规约束和氢能设备约束的前提下,考虑电、氢负荷需求,建立以投资、运行、碳交易以及弃电成本之和最小为优化目标的电源低碳规划模型;最后,以中国西北某地区的实际数据为例进行算例分析。结果表明,引入氢负荷和碳捕集电厂后的电源低碳规划模型能够优化电源结构、提高能源利用效率、降低系统碳排放量。

城市更新背景下对历史文化风貌区保护规划的再思考——以大连化物所历史文化风貌区保护规划为例

历史文化风貌区是大连重要的文化载体和城市记忆承载地,保护规划作为历史文化风貌区保护与更新的法定文件目前在大连已启动。文章聚焦国家城市更新背景,从历史文化风貌区保护规划中遇到的困惑出发,分析传统保护与更新整治规划的不足,进行再思考。结合笔者亲身参与编制的《大连化物所历史文化风貌区保护规划》,从关注风貌区总体格局保护、风貌区展示利用两个维度出发,对保护体系的构建、相关内容的补充、与城市更新相关政策的结合、实施机制体制的配套完善等多方面进行探讨,力求探索一个更加优化、完善的历史文化风貌区保护规划方案的实施策略。

基于空间-社会视角的城市居住能耗碳排放影响因素研究——以天津中心城区为例

厘清城市居住能耗碳排放的“空间-社会”共同影响作用机理,有助于为社区低碳更新规划提供针对性空间识别方法和政策支撑。借鉴居住分异理论中“空间-社会”二维属性的社区居住空间刻画逻辑,对天津市中心城区市民进行社会问卷调查,采用路径分析模型建立“空间-社会”复合作用下的影响关系模型,并对空间性和社会性影响总效益进行系统比较分析。研究结果表明:①空间性因素和社会性因素对大城市居住能耗碳排放的间接影响效应普遍存在,对直接效应起到一定修正作用;②社会性因素影响总效应远高于空间性因素,关键影响指标分别为人口数量和住房总价;③住区价值对家庭居住能耗碳排放的正向影响关系被证实显著存在。高价格大户型住宅通过吸引高收入群体购买和自身设施水平较高两方面锁定高碳排放行为特征。据此,提出差异化住区碳排放特征识别方法及低碳规划审查要点,为城市更新提供政策参考。

超特大城市更新专项规划编制的“五维”技术体系研究——以北京为例

根据对超特大城市的更新现状分析,从市级城市更新专项规划编制视角总结了规划编制面临的挑战,即空间资源复杂性、更新诉求复杂性与制度设计复杂性。从空间维度、组织维度、方法维度、动力维度与实施维度5个维度阐述了城市更新专项规划编制的思维变革,并搭建了超特大城市更新专项规划的“五维”技术体系。同时,将该“五维”技术体系引入北京城市更新专项规划的编制实践,探讨了城市更新专项规划的工作目标与定位、技术框架与要点、部门协同与规划实施等的内在逻辑与技术体系方案,归纳总结了在资源评估、政策创新、更新方法与平台搭建等方面可借鉴、可推广的工作方法。

新能源大基地风光储容量协调优化配置

大型新能源基地需要协调配置风光火储容量以满足外送要求,其中火电容量及外送通道的容量通常预先确定,从而风电、光伏、储能的容量配置成为影响新能源外送效果的重要因素。为此,针对大型新能源基地,研究了风光储容量优化配置问题,提出了基于新能源外送可靠性的容量配置方法。基于需求侧的负荷曲线,提出了一种聚类方法来优化直流通道的计划传输功率;基于直流计划功率,提出了衡量新能源外送可靠性的送电置信概率指标;基于送电置信概率等约束,构建了风光储容量优化配置的基本规划模型。为了进一步保证在不同的场景下新能源能可靠外送,在基本规划模型的基础上加入场景分布不确定性,提出了风光储容量配置的分布鲁棒规划模型。考虑到分布鲁棒约束包含整数变量,提出了一种迭代算法用于该分布鲁棒规划模型的求解。实际算例验证了所提方法的有效性。

面向实施的城市更新单元规划编制技术框架与实践——以武汉为例

从城市更新单元的提出背景、研究与实践进展以及实施面临的困境出发,梳理城市更新单元规划的作用与地位,总结城市更新单元划定的要求,提出城市更新单元规划编制的侧重点以及技术框架和主要内容,在此基础上对武汉城市更新单元规划实践进行探索,以期为进一步完善城市更新单元规划编制、促进城市更新规划实施提供参考。

考虑风光出力不确定性的新能源基地直流外送随机规划方法研究

加快推进沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区大型风电太阳能发电基地规划与建设,是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要举措。大规模新能源基地电力外送呈现强随机性、波动性特征,跨区送电特性与传统直流相比发生较大变化,亟需研究适用于不确定性环境的直流外送输电曲线规划方法。考虑了新能源基地风电、光伏出力不确定性对电力外送的影响,针对新能源基地、直流通道和受端电网的运行特性分别建模,提出了基于场景分析法的新能源基地直流外送随机规划方法。算例结果表明,该方法得到的直流输电曲线可应对不同新能源出力场景下的直流外送需求,验证了所提方法的有效性。

基于EnergyPLAN模型的城市可再生能源应用规划研究

随着经济社会快速发展,能源应用与环境问题日益突出,以高比例可再生能源利用为主体的区域能源规划成为国内外研究热点。基于EnergyPLAN模型,以江苏省扬州市为研究对象,以当前能源消费、能源供给数据和城市政策规划目标为基础,以2035为目标,构建三种未来能源系统场景,定量分析目前发展模式下扬州可再生能源利用状况,并通过比较提出发展绿色城市能源应用规划的相关建议。