Modelling and Assessment of Survival Probability of Shock Model with Two Kinds of Shocks

The study aims at modelling and assessment of survival probability of a component experiencing two kinds of shocks namely, damage shock and fatal shock. Shocks are occurring randomly in time as events of a Poisson Process. The two cases of fixed/random threshold of components are studied. Survival probabilities of proposed models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of survival probabilities are obtained using the data from life testing experiments. Fisher information and asymptotic distribution of MLEs of parameters are obtained when a constant threshold is considered. Computation and comparison of estimators of two cases (constant threshold and random threshold) are made through simulation studies. The study recommends the consideration of threshold as a random variable.

COMPLEX NONLINEAR MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR A KIND OF VEHICLE SHOCK ABSORBORS

A nonlinear mathematical model for the shock absorber in TJ7100 is developed. The oil compressibility and the entrapped gas in the oil are considered in the model. As a result, the hysteresis in the force velocity diagram is included. The results of computer simulation and the experiment are basically identical. The MATLAB/SIMULINK is used for the development of the simulation software. It is found that the pressure inside the cylinder is high if the inputs of velocity or displacement are big by simulation. This is certainly one of the main reasons for which the leak is appeared between the rod and the seal of the shock absorbers for a relatively short time in China.

Large Eddy Simulation of Pseudo-Shock Waves Using Wall Model

A supersonic turbulent flowfield involving the pseudo-shock waves in an isolator of a supersonic combustion ramjet is computed using two different LES codes which are a high-order upwind finite volume scheme, and a sixth order compact differencing scheme utilizing the localized artificial diffusivity method for stabilizing shock waves and employing a wall model to enable the use of coarse mesh. In the validation study where a supersonic turbulent boundary layer flow over a flat plate is examined, both LES codes are well validated using velocity profile in the boundary layer given by the hot-wire anemometry and normal stress given by the laser Doppler anemometry. In particular, the sixth order compact differencing scheme gives closer agreements with these experimental data. Then, the validated LES codes are applied to solve the Mach number 2.5 supersonic turbulent flowfield involving the pseudo-shock waves. It is shown that typical features of unsteady flowfield of the pseudo-shock waves are well obtained by both schemes. Again, it is indicated that the sixth order compact differencing scheme gives closer agreements with the existing velocity data obtained by particle image velocimetry and pressure fluctuation data on the wall surface. Besides, the computational cost of the compact differencing scheme is found to be 1/7 of that for the upwind finite volume scheme, even though a wall model is solved at each grid point on the wall surface. Therefore, the obtained results in the present study allow recommending the sixth order compact differencing scheme with a wall model for simulating supersonic turbulent flowfield in an isolator involving the pseudo-shock waves.

Water Hammer Model of Shock Absorber Throttle Slice

In allusion to easy invalidation of damping valve in vehicle shock absorber caused by the impact from the road surface, the importance of the study of damping valve water hammer pressure is presented. The physical model of damping valve with the circle throttle slice is established. The time for the throttle slice deformation is studied by using the finite software, and the laws that how the structure parameters affect the deformation time are obtained. Combining the theory of water hammer, the water hammer initial and boundary condition of the damping valve is deduced, and the water hammer model of throttle slice is established. The analysis of simulation results indicates that the water hammer pressure amplitude and the amount of water hammer oscillation period can be reduced and the dependability of the valve can be enhanced by modifying the structure parameters and aperture width between slice and valve body.

Artificial neural network model of constitutive relations for shock-prestrained copper

Data from the deformation on Split Hopkinson Bar were used for constructing an artificial neural network model. When putting the thermodynamic parameters of the metals into the trained network model, the corresponding yielding stress can be predicted. The results show that the systematic error is small when the objective function is 0.5 , the number of the nodes in the hidden layer is 6 and the learning rate is about 0.1 , and the accuracy of the rate error is less than 3%. [

Modeling of the Coupling of the Lightning Shock Wave Flow Circuit in the High Voltage Electrical Network

This article focuses on the aggression of lightning overload on the equipment of the electrical network of sites where storm activity is very dense;and the electrocution of people located in the direct environment of the high-voltage substation during the flow of lightning current to the ground through the ground socket. The modeling of the flow circuit of the shock wave consisting of guard wire, lightning arrester and ground socket couple to the transformer of the high voltage substations, thanks to the approach of a servo block, led to the synthesis of a PID regulator (corrector) whose action is to reject the effects of the overvoltage on the network equipment and to significantly reduce or even cancel the effects of the step or touch voltage due to the distribution of the potential around the ground socket;and thus improve the quality of service of the high-voltage transmission and distribution electricity network, especially in stormy times.

Web software reliability modeling with random impulsive shocks

As the web-server based business is rapidly developed and popularized, how to evaluate and improve the reliability of web-servers has been extremely important. Although a large num- ber of software reliability growth models （SRGMs）, including those combined with multiple change-points （CPs）, have been available, these conventional SRGMs cannot be directly applied to web soft- ware reliability analysis because of the complex web operational profile. To characterize the web operational profile precisely, it should be realized that the workload of a web server is normally non-homogeneous and often observed with the pattern of random impulsive shocks. A web software reliability model with random im- pulsive shocks and its statistical analysis method are developed. In the proposed model, the web server workload is characterized by a geometric Brownian motion process. Based on a real data set from IIS server logs of ICRMS website （www.icrms.cn）, the proposed model is demonstrated to be powerful for estimating impulsive shocks and web software reliability.

射弹高速撞击下结构冲击响应建模方法

装备受到外界打击可能造成失效,以往的研究多集中在打击部位的损伤破坏,而对于打击引起的冲击波及其在装备内传播研究较少,而后者同样能够导致装备失效。本文针对结构在高速撞击下的冲击响应问题开展了建模方法研究,提出了结构在高速打击下的冲击源建模方法,并通过理论分析给出了建模方法的适用条件。利用传统的有限元技术,结合本文的冲击源建模方法,可以有效地对结构高速撞击下的冲击响应进行仿真,通过试验验证了方法的适用性。

不同点火方式下HMX基PBX炸药反应演化过程的特征分析

在长管强约束条件下对HMX基PBX炸药点火实验进行了数值模拟,分析了点火方式对炸药反应演化规律的影响,获得了弱冲击点火条件下炸药反应演化过程的特征图像。针对黑火药和雷管2种点火方式,分别构建了PBX炸药黑火药点燃和冲击起爆2类实验的唯象模型和数值模拟方法,通过数值模拟获得了钢管内炸药柱反应演化进程的特征图像,柱壳膨胀历程与实验结果符合较好。研究表明,不同点火方式下炸药反应演化进程存在较大差异。如果使用雷管点火,PBX炸药会在几微秒内发生爆轰反应;而使用黑火药点火,PBX炸药会在数毫秒内从缓慢燃烧转化为剧烈爆炸,但随着壳体破裂解体,管内压力骤降,抑制了反应演化向爆轰转变。黑火药点燃条件下整个反应演化过程可以分为4个主要阶段,其中管壁附近炸药柱表面燃烧传播优先于炸药柱中心基体反应,是弱冲击点火反应演化过程的重要特征之一。

高频动态压电式压力传感器结构设计与实验研究

针对激波压力信号快速测量需求的提升,提出了一种基于压电效应的高频动态激波压力传感器结构形式及测量原理。通过分析激波信号的时频特性,确定高频动态压电式压力传感器的性能需求;采用高频动态压电式压力传感器的测量原理,对提出的激波压力测量进行了分析;基于变形协调一致原则,建立了静力学和动力学模型,分析传感器结构参数对灵敏度和固有频率的影响规律;将优化后的传感器三维模型导入ANSYS中进行静力学、动力学和压电耦合分析,验证了传感器结构及其测量原理的可行性。通过准静态标定和动态标定实验,得到传感器的电压灵敏度、非线性度和固有频率等测量性能指标,实验结果表明:研制的高频动态压电式激波压力传感器样机具有高灵敏度3.19 mV/kPa、高固有频率特性95.625 Hz和短上升时间10.45μs特性,能够满足实际测试需求。

基于BP神经网络的水中双爆源爆炸冲击波峰值压力预测模型研究

为了获得水中等质量两爆源同步爆炸时冲击波耦合中心的峰值压力计算模型,利用Autodyn计算得到不同药量和爆距下的峰值压力数据.一方面根据量纲分析确定的函数形式拟合数据从而获得峰值压力的计算公式;另一方面对药量、爆距及峰值压力三类数据进行对数变换和归一化,并将其分为训练集和测试集,然后将训练集代入BP神经网络进行训练,得到结构相对简单、均方误差最小的BP神经网络预测模型.结果表明:公式计算结果和BP神经网络模型计算得到的峰值压力与实际值吻合较好,公式计算值与实际值的平均相对误差为1.08%,BP神经网络预测值与实际值的平均相对误差为0.52%,与公式计算相比,BP神经网络能够以更少的数据样本容量实现更高的精度预测.

基于Anand模型的BGA封装热冲击循环分析及焊点疲劳寿命预测

BGA封装在电子元器件中的互连、信息传输等方面起着重要作用,研究封装元件的可靠性以及内部焊点在高温、高湿、高压等极限条件下的稳定性显得尤为重要。基于Anand模型分析了封装元件在热冲击下的塑性变形和应力分布,同时对不同空间位置焊点的最大应力与主要失效位置进行了对比,并运用Darveaux模型计算出焊点最危险单元的裂纹萌生、裂纹扩展速率和疲劳寿命。结果表明,在热冲击极限载荷下,封装元件的温度呈现对称分布,表面温度与内部温度差较大,约为15℃;最大变形为0.038 mm,最大变形位置为外侧镀膜处;最大应力为222.18 MPa,内部其余部分的应力值为20 MPa左右。对于内部焊点,最大应力为19.02 MPa (250 s),应力最大位置在锡球下方边缘,预估其疲劳寿命为6.29天。

考虑随机变失效阈值的多相关退化可靠性建模

由于机械部件失效受多个退化过程及外界冲击等各种因素的耦合作用影响,而当前研究多考虑单一因素,并认为失效阈值为定值,未考虑到设备会因退化而导致其抗冲击能力降低的事实,因此同时考虑冲击对退化过程的影响,退化过程对冲击失效阈值的随机不确定性影响以及不同退化过程之间存在相关性影响,提出考虑随机变阈值的多相关退化可靠性模型。此外,通过Copula函数描述不同退化过程间的相关性,给出相关模型的参数估计方法。根据某型动车组的车轮实测磨耗数据进行实例计算,通过蒙特卡罗方法验证模型的准确性,讨论不同退化过程存在相关性对可靠度的影响,对随机变失效阈值进行灵敏度分析,进一步说明所提模型的实用性。

Reliability Comparison Between Parallel and Cold-standby Two-unit System Under Poisson Shock

This paper investigates the comparison problem of the reliability index between a parallel and a cold-standby system,both of which are consisting of two identical units.On the contrary to the general intuitive result,we proved that,under the condition that the system is shocked by a Poisson stream,the life time of the parallel system is longer than that of the cold-standby one in the sense of probability.

评价文胸防震功能的运动假人关键技术研究

为了研制一款可进行文胸防震功能评价的运动假人,以避免测试过程中因真人个体差异造成的影响,从仿真模型和动力系统两方面进行关键技术研究。首先总结乳房形态和力学参数,其次综述仿真模型制备方法,然后分析躯干运动轨迹计算方法及动力系统设计方法,最后提出一套仿真模型和动力系统的设计方案。其中,仿真模型由内部支撑、外部包覆材料及仿真乳房组成,乳房用特殊配比的硅胶灌注;动力系统由运动平台、电动机和凸轮组成,根据躯干竖直方向运动轨迹参数方程设计凸轮轮廓。未来可探究仿真乳房的不同硅胶配比、计算躯干三维运动轨迹参数方程,并研发模拟快速运动的动力系统。

冲击响应谱在卫星运输冲击响应分析中的应用

卫星运输过程中的动力学环境存在一定的随机性与不确定性,给卫星的安全运输带来隐患。目前工程上尚未形成通用化的卫星运输仿真方法,也未制定指导性的运输分析力学环境条件。文章提取卫星运输过程中经常出现的2种典型斜坡形式的冲击信号,基于ABAQUS软件建立卫星与运输支撑工装的有限元模型,分别开展了瞬态响应与冲击响应谱分析。结果表明,相比于瞬态响应分析,冲击响应谱分析节约了95%的运算量,且分析偏差在17%以内,并能够实现对响应最大情况的包络,可更好地满足工程上对仿真分析快速且准确的需求。

海拔高度对化爆冲击波压力分布规律影响分析

海拔高度会引起空气密度及气压的变化,直接影响冲击波压力在空气介质中的传播分布规律。该项研究采用AUTODYN建立了0、1 000、2 000、3 000、4 500 m等5种海拔高度下爆炸冲击波压力传播规律的有限元数值仿真模型,开展了等效TNT当量为10、30、50 kg工况下的数值仿真分析,并对获取的冲击波压力分布规律进行了分析。分析结果表明:海拔高度对冲击波压力具有显著的影响作用,具体表现为在同一等效TNT当量下,随海拔高度的增加,冲击波超压峰值、比冲量都逐渐减小,峰值到达时刻随测点距离增大逐渐提前;并且随等效TNT当量的增加,爆炸冲击波压力峰值和比冲量都逐渐增大,峰值到达时间逐步提前。数值仿真结果与试验结果具有较高的吻合度,该项研究揭示了海拔高度对爆炸冲击波传播分布规律的影响作用,为实际工程测试提供了理论支撑。

基于不同人群心源性休克风险预测模型的研究现状

心源性休克(CS)并发症多、病死率高,利用CS预后评分模型对患者进行准确的风险分层,早期识别高危患者,对优化分类诊治措施、改善患者结局有重要意义。近年来,新的风险预测模型和机器学习(ML)智能分析的应用较传统模型提高了对CS患者的风险分类和预后评估能力,尤其临床变量结合生物标志物的模型对CS风险预测有更高的准确性。本文对基于不同患者群体CS风险预测模型及ML模型的应用与研究现状进行综述。

中国期货市场对宏观经济影响的实证研究

本文采用协整相关理论中的Granger因果关系检验、协整关系检验、误差修正模型及冲击反应函数的方法,采用2003年1月至2023年5月的月度数据,研究了期货市场变量(价格指数、总成交额、总持仓量)对16个宏观经济变量的作用与影响。结果表明,期货市场3个指标同时对工业增加值、净出口、财政收入、财政支出有引导作用;价格指数与总成交额对银行同业拆借利率7天期利率、人民币实际有效汇率指数有引导作用;总成交额与总持仓量对进出口总额、固定资产投资总额、社会消费品零售总额有较强的引导作用;价格指数对生产者价格指数、贷款总额、美元兑人民币汇率有较强的引导作用;总持仓量对贷款总额有较强的引导作用。协整检验及误差修正模型显示,从长短期来看,期货市场变量对12个宏观变量产生了或强或弱的定量影响,冲击反应函数曲线均显示期货市场变量对12个宏观变量产生不同时滞的冲击影响,说明期货市场对宏观经济产生比较强的影响,但在影响范围及深度上还有较大的提升空间。建议期货市场从品种扩容、国际化及监管方面发力,进一步助推国内宏观经济的全面发展。