Mechanism of satellitic thermo-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increasing is studied. Experiments are made with a gas sample taken around the epicenter area. The gas sample is proved to contain green h...Mechanism of satellitic thermo-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increasing is studied. Experiments are made with a gas sample taken around the epicenter area. The gas sample is proved to contain green house gases such as CH4 and CO2 which have increased by tens of thousands of times. In addition, lab research also proves that CH4 and CO2 can obtain energy under the action of transient electric field and release heat, thus resulting in a temperature increase of 2-6℃ . Also a brief account of practices since 1990 is given; altogether 40 short-term and impending earthquake predictions have been made, with 9 precise ones whose three main factors of an earthquake are clearly depicted, and 12 fairly good ones. These predictions include 3 earthquakes of Ms≥7, 4 of M8≥6.0 and the rest are around MS5.0. Yet there are earthquakes left out of prediction. Finally the evolutionary processing characters of satellitic thermo-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increase before the Lijiang earthquake on Feb. 3, 1996 and Tangshan earthquake on April 14, 1998 are introduced in detail. The conclusion makes a study on the regularities of connection among time, space and stress when there appears the satellitic thermal-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increasing anomaly.展开更多
Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satell...Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.展开更多
Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of pr...Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.展开更多
We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wen...We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth's crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. All our observation with the HRT waves demonstrate that HRT wave precursors to earthquakes indeed exist. Strong earthquakes can be predicted and short-term and impending earthquake prediction is achievable in the very near future. From all the observations, including the ones at HG station from Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we conclude that using HRT wave to predict earthquakes is feasible.展开更多
The Changshu earthquake (M_s = 5.1) occurred at 17:57 (GMT, hereinafter) on Feb. 9, 1990, and it was sensible around Shanghai, Wuxi and some other places. The epicenter was at 31.6°N, 121°E. We predicted on ...The Changshu earthquake (M_s = 5.1) occurred at 17:57 (GMT, hereinafter) on Feb. 9, 1990, and it was sensible around Shanghai, Wuxi and some other places. The epicenter was at 31.6°N, 121°E. We predicted on Feb. 6, 1990 that there would be an earthquake with magnitude 5—6 in the south Huanghai Sea-north Jiangsu Province region, There were a展开更多
This note mainly discusses the relation of the impending-earthquake satellite thermal infrared anomaly with the ground temperature-increase anomaly, namely, expounds the problem if the satellite thermal infrared anoma...This note mainly discusses the relation of the impending-earthquake satellite thermal infrared anomaly with the ground temperature-increase anomaly, namely, expounds the problem if the satellite thermal infrared anomaly is the reflection of the surficial temperatureincrease anomaly caused by seismic activities on the basis of previous works about the rela-展开更多
In order to quantitatively describe the geoelectric precursor anomaly in the short-impending process of earthquakes, a new geoelectric precursor index — (monthly) relative change rate of ground resistivity, R ρ...In order to quantitatively describe the geoelectric precursor anomaly in the short-impending process of earthquakes, a new geoelectric precursor index — (monthly) relative change rate of ground resistivity, R ρ (t) , is designed. Using this index and choosing the internationally accepted ground resistivity data before the Tangshan M =7.8 earthquake of July 28, 1976, the features of dynamic evolution pattern of R ρ(t) are studied. The results show that: ① about 10～9 months before earthquake, the ground resistivity in a certain range around the epicentral region begins to display the anomaly of accelerating descent, and the rate of descent is higher in the epicentral region than in surrounding areas; ② with the shortening of countdown before earthquake, the R ρ(t) value in epicentral region increases gradually (ground resistivity value decreases at an increasing rate); ③ the R ρ(t) value has the epicentral area as a center and its contour lines propagate towards surrounding areas with the shortening of countdown before earthquake; ④after the R ρ(t) value in epicentral region has descended at increasing rate to reach an extremity [ R ρ(t) = (7.0], it turns to descend at decreasing rate (2～3 months) and earthquake occurs when it accelerates again. Meanwhile, earthquake occurs when the contour lines of R ρ(t) stop propagating towards surrounding areas and turn to shrink back (2～3 months later). Its physical process can be explained by the″ swollen hypothesis″ of Prof. Fu and the theory of ″Slip-weakening and rockmass instability″ of Mei, Niu, et al ..展开更多
基金Project supported by the State 863 High-Tech Project (Grant No. 863-2-7-4-18).
文摘Mechanism of satellitic thermo-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increasing is studied. Experiments are made with a gas sample taken around the epicenter area. The gas sample is proved to contain green house gases such as CH4 and CO2 which have increased by tens of thousands of times. In addition, lab research also proves that CH4 and CO2 can obtain energy under the action of transient electric field and release heat, thus resulting in a temperature increase of 2-6℃ . Also a brief account of practices since 1990 is given; altogether 40 short-term and impending earthquake predictions have been made, with 9 precise ones whose three main factors of an earthquake are clearly depicted, and 12 fairly good ones. These predictions include 3 earthquakes of Ms≥7, 4 of M8≥6.0 and the rest are around MS5.0. Yet there are earthquakes left out of prediction. Finally the evolutionary processing characters of satellitic thermo-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increase before the Lijiang earthquake on Feb. 3, 1996 and Tangshan earthquake on April 14, 1998 are introduced in detail. The conclusion makes a study on the regularities of connection among time, space and stress when there appears the satellitic thermal-infrared brightness temperature and temperature increasing anomaly.
基金support from the Key Project of Hainan Province Scientific and Technical Plan(grant No.06701)
文摘Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.
文摘Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.
文摘We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth's crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. All our observation with the HRT waves demonstrate that HRT wave precursors to earthquakes indeed exist. Strong earthquakes can be predicted and short-term and impending earthquake prediction is achievable in the very near future. From all the observations, including the ones at HG station from Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we conclude that using HRT wave to predict earthquakes is feasible.
文摘The Changshu earthquake (M_s = 5.1) occurred at 17:57 (GMT, hereinafter) on Feb. 9, 1990, and it was sensible around Shanghai, Wuxi and some other places. The epicenter was at 31.6°N, 121°E. We predicted on Feb. 6, 1990 that there would be an earthquake with magnitude 5—6 in the south Huanghai Sea-north Jiangsu Province region, There were a
基金Project supported by the Seismoscience Joint Foundation
文摘This note mainly discusses the relation of the impending-earthquake satellite thermal infrared anomaly with the ground temperature-increase anomaly, namely, expounds the problem if the satellite thermal infrared anomaly is the reflection of the surficial temperatureincrease anomaly caused by seismic activities on the basis of previous works about the rela-
文摘In order to quantitatively describe the geoelectric precursor anomaly in the short-impending process of earthquakes, a new geoelectric precursor index — (monthly) relative change rate of ground resistivity, R ρ (t) , is designed. Using this index and choosing the internationally accepted ground resistivity data before the Tangshan M =7.8 earthquake of July 28, 1976, the features of dynamic evolution pattern of R ρ(t) are studied. The results show that: ① about 10～9 months before earthquake, the ground resistivity in a certain range around the epicentral region begins to display the anomaly of accelerating descent, and the rate of descent is higher in the epicentral region than in surrounding areas; ② with the shortening of countdown before earthquake, the R ρ(t) value in epicentral region increases gradually (ground resistivity value decreases at an increasing rate); ③ the R ρ(t) value has the epicentral area as a center and its contour lines propagate towards surrounding areas with the shortening of countdown before earthquake; ④after the R ρ(t) value in epicentral region has descended at increasing rate to reach an extremity [ R ρ(t) = (7.0], it turns to descend at decreasing rate (2～3 months) and earthquake occurs when it accelerates again. Meanwhile, earthquake occurs when the contour lines of R ρ(t) stop propagating towards surrounding areas and turn to shrink back (2～3 months later). Its physical process can be explained by the″ swollen hypothesis″ of Prof. Fu and the theory of ″Slip-weakening and rockmass instability″ of Mei, Niu, et al ..
