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The Study of Medium- and Short-term Prediction for Artux Earthquake (M_S=6.9) and Usunan Earthquake (M_S=5.8) 被引量:1
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作者 Jiang Zaisen, Zhao Zhencai, Wang Haitao, Wang Jiying, and Wang ShuangxuThe Second Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, SSB, Xi’an 710054, China Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China 《Earthquake Research in China》 1998年第4期86-91,共6页
In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic r... In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic risk regions are judged based on long- and medium-term seismic risk regions and annual seismic risk regions determined by national seismologic analysis, combined with large seismic situation analysis. We trace and analyze the seismic situation in large areas, and judge principal risk regions or belts of seismic activity in a year, by integrating the large area’s seismicity with geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As much as possible using information, we study synthetically observational information for long-medium- and short-term (time domain) and large-medium -small dimensions (space domain), and approach the forecast region of forthcoming earthquakes from the large to small magnitude. A better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 MEDIUM and short-term earthquake prediction Large seismic SITUATION GEODETIC deformation Synthetic analysis.
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Short-term Earthquake Prediction in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region Using the Method of Modulated Earthquakes
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作者 Wang Cuizhi Cao Jingquan Guo Hongli Zhang Lei Xue Na 《Earthquake Research in China》 2011年第1期101-110,共10页
By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characterist... By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than MS6. 0 in a short time. Before the MS8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake,there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes. 展开更多
关键词 Modulated earthquake Non-steady-state Modulation ratio short-term earthquake prediction
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Application of Ambient Stress Parameters to Short-Term Prediction of the 2004, M_S5.0 Shuangbai, Yunnan Earthquake
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作者 Qian Xiaodong Qin Jiazheng 《Earthquake Research in China》 2007年第1期43-54,共12页
Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. Wi... Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented. 展开更多
关键词 Shuangbai earthquake Ambient stress parameter short-term earthquake prediction
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Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region
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作者 PingJianjun ZhangYongxian +4 位作者 ZhangQingrong LiuSuying ChenJianguo HuangWanfa MiXuemei 《Earthquake Research in China》 2004年第2期188-199,共12页
Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such ... Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction. 展开更多
关键词 The North China region Precursory information magnitude of short-term earthquake anomaly Information field Evolution characteristics Methods of synthetic prediction
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Impending HRT wave precursors to the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake and methods of earthquake impending prediction by using HRT wave 被引量:8
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作者 QIAN FuYe ZHAO BiRu +25 位作者 QIAN Wei ZHAO Jian HE ShiGen ZHANG HongKui LI ShiYu LI ShaoKun YAN GuLiang WANG ChengMin SUN ZhenKai ZHANG DongNing LU Jun ZHANG Ping YANG GuoJun SUN JiaLin GUO ChunSheng TANG YuXiong XU JianMing XIA KunTao JU Hang YIN BangHong LI Ming YANG DongSheng QI WeiLuo HE TaiMing GUAN HuaPing ZHAO YuLin 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2009年第10期1572-1584,共13页
We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wen... We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth's crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. All our observation with the HRT waves demonstrate that HRT wave precursors to earthquakes indeed exist. Strong earthquakes can be predicted and short-term and impending earthquake prediction is achievable in the very near future. From all the observations, including the ones at HG station from Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we conclude that using HRT wave to predict earthquakes is feasible. 展开更多
关键词 WENCHUAN Ms8.0 earthquake HRT WAVE (mechanism) model PS-100 geo-resistivity meter HRT WAVE PRECURSOR PRECURSOR consistency feasibility of short-term and impending earthquake prediction
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Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China,and its Analysis on Geo-dynamics 被引量:2
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作者 WEI Lejun GUO Jianfeng +3 位作者 LIU Jianhua LU Zhenquan LI Haibing CAI Hui 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第4期767-775,共9页
Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band (10.3-11.3 μm) designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satell... Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band (10.3-11.3 μm) designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics: (1) The precursor appeared rather early: on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; (2) The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages: the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; (3) Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; (4) An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena. 展开更多
关键词 WENCHUAN earthquake prediction ground-stress satellite thermal infrared short-term and impending earthquake precursor
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Anomalous Ionospheric foF2 Variations Observed Prior to the Dalbandin Earthquake in Pakistan 被引量:1
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作者 Muhammad Irfan Aftab Alam +3 位作者 Muhammad Junaid Muhammad Ayyaz Ameen Talat Iqbal Huang Fuqiong 《Earthquake Research in China》 CSCD 2015年第4期567-575,共9页
Ionosphereic foF2 variations are very sensitive to the seismic effect and results of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes seem to very hopeful for short-term earthquake prediction. On January 18,2011 ... Ionosphereic foF2 variations are very sensitive to the seismic effect and results of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes seem to very hopeful for short-term earthquake prediction. On January 18,2011 at 20: 23 UT a great earthquake( M = 7. 2)occurred in Dalbandin( 28. 73° N,63. 92° E),Pakistan. In this study,we have tried to find out the features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by using the hourly day time( 08. 00 a. m.- 05. 00 p. m.) data of critical frequency( foF2) obtained by three vertical sounding stations installed in Islamabad( 33. 78°N,73. 06°E),Multan( 32. 26°N,71. 51°E) and Karachi( 24. 89° N,67. 02° E), Pakistan. The results show the significant anomalies of foF2 in the earthquake preparation zone several days prior to the Dalbandin earthquake. It is also observed that the amplitude and frequency of foF2 anomalies are more prominent at the nearest station to the epicenter as compared to those stations near the outer margin of the earthquake preparation zone. The confidence level for ionospheric anomalies regarding the seismic signatures can be enhanced by adding the analysis of some other ionospheic parameters along with critical frequency of the layer F2. 展开更多
关键词 Dalbandin earthquake Ionosphereic foF2 anomaly short-term prediction Pakistan
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Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region 被引量:1
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作者 ShiShaoxian ChengWanzheng 《Earthquake Research in China》 2004年第4期348-356,共9页
Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of pr... Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly. 展开更多
关键词 Anomalies of precursory group Synthetic information short-term and impending characteristic anomaly in the near-source area prediction of the grouped strong earthquakes
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Study on the sudden changes in ground tilt and earthquakes
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作者 牛安福 张晶 +1 位作者 江在森 贾民育 《Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition)》 CSCD 2003年第4期468-472,共5页
关键词 ground tilt sudden change earthquake short-term prediction +
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Study on Relation Between Dynamic Pattern of Regional Vertical Strain Rate and Several Strong Earthquakes such as Lijiang(M_s7.0)and Menyuan(M_s6.4)Earthquakes
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作者 Wang Shuangxu Jiang Zaisen +1 位作者 Zhang Xi Chen Bing 《Earthquake Research in China》 2000年第3期30-41,共12页
Making use of the method of obtaining regional vertical strain rate from regional preciseleveling data and gaining dynamic pattern combining with deformation data on spanningfaults, the regional vertical strain dynami... Making use of the method of obtaining regional vertical strain rate from regional preciseleveling data and gaining dynamic pattern combining with deformation data on spanningfaults, the regional vertical strain dynamic evolution characteristics of several moderatelystrong earthquakes such as Lijiang (M_s 7.0) and Menyuan (M_s 6.4) earthquakes occurredin crustal deformation monitoring areas located in the western Yunnan and Qilianshan-Hexiregion. Based on the above-mentioned facts, by studying the time-space nonhomogeneity andstrain energy accumulation status, some criteria for judging the medium. and short-termstrong seismic risk regions according to the regional vertical strain rate dynamic informationare proposed. 展开更多
关键词 Regional VERTICAL strain rate DYNAMIC PATTERN evolution characteristics Medium- and short-term prediction criterion of strong earthquakeS
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融合电磁和地声特征的地震预测集成学习方法
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作者 刘英杰 黄嘉琦 +4 位作者 姜玉凤 邵宇琪 杨文韬 于紫凝 郑海永 《计算机技术与发展》 2024年第8期166-174,共9页
地震是极具破坏性与不确定性的自然现象,在人们毫无察觉的情况下地震发生在人口稠密区时,将严重危害人们生命财产安全。人们不断努力了解地震的物理特征和物理危害与环境之间的相互作用,以便在地震发生前发出适当的警报。可靠的地震预... 地震是极具破坏性与不确定性的自然现象,在人们毫无察觉的情况下地震发生在人口稠密区时,将严重危害人们生命财产安全。人们不断努力了解地震的物理特征和物理危害与环境之间的相互作用,以便在地震发生前发出适当的警报。可靠的地震预测应包含对地震信号的分析,但是这些信号在地震发生前不明显;因此使用数据驱动机器学习的方法来分析这些信号与地震的联系并预测地震。通过建立观测台网连续监测与地震发生相关的各种物理量或化学量,据此获取的地震前兆信息是地震预测的研究基础。地震发生前,地球物理场发生显著变化,伴随电磁和地声等多种前兆信号,其中电磁和地声信号具有临震特性,是开展地震临震观测预测研究的重要数据来源;因此对地下的电磁扰动和地声信号进行实时监测,获取长期观测数据用于数据驱动机器学习方法预测地震。该文基于AETA数据的临震模型预报,针对多分量地震监测预测系统(Acoustic and Electromagnetic Testing All in one system,AETA)在川滇地区记录的电磁和地声数据,提取时域和频域特征,采用基于随机森林算法、轻量级梯度提升决策树和极度随机树的集成学习方法共同预测该区域的发震情况,选取发震概率最大的子区域中心位置作为震中预测结果,进一步训练LightGBM回归模型以预测此子区域的震级,按周对地震三要素进行预测。实验结果表明,该方法在川滇地区地震风险预测上,准确率可达0.64,震级预测的平均误差为0.38,最小误差为0.00,具有良好的预测效果。 展开更多
关键词 地震预测 机器学习 集成学习 特征融合 数据驱动 临震特性 地震三要素
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强震临震微波动现象跟踪实践
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作者 杨立明 王建军 +2 位作者 张增换 余娜 李玮杰 《中国地震》 北大核心 2024年第2期295-303,共9页
为验证和检验强震临震微波动现象及其主要特征,利用甘肃、青海、四川、云南、西藏等区域台网200余个宽频带数字地震台站的实时波形资料和实时跟踪监控技术系统,对2019—2022年间青藏高原发生的44次5级以上地震进行全程实时跟踪及动态监... 为验证和检验强震临震微波动现象及其主要特征,利用甘肃、青海、四川、云南、西藏等区域台网200余个宽频带数字地震台站的实时波形资料和实时跟踪监控技术系统,对2019—2022年间青藏高原发生的44次5级以上地震进行全程实时跟踪及动态监控,进一步检验临震微波动现象的重现性和客观性,验证了临震微波动现象的频谱、时间、空间等特征。 展开更多
关键词 临震微波动现象 预报时空指标 验证
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Short-Impending Earthquake Anomaly Index Extraction of GNSS Continuous Observation Data in Yunnan,Southwestern China 被引量:13
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作者 Min Hong Desheng Shao +4 位作者 Tengfei Wu Shuangxi Zhang Yong Zhang Lingli Wang Xiaodong Qian 《Journal of Earth Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第1期230-236,共7页
This paper presents a comprehensive area expansion prediction index method to apply GNSS for short-impending prediction of earthquakes. Based on continuous GNSS observation data from Yunnan Province, a displacement fi... This paper presents a comprehensive area expansion prediction index method to apply GNSS for short-impending prediction of earthquakes. Based on continuous GNSS observation data from Yunnan Province, a displacement field was detected after data cycle-slip repair using precision data processing software and geophysical field effect model correction. The Yunnan area was divided into 56 grid cells for displacement field interpolation to obtain a more uniform displacement field and a strain field variation time series. The pre-earthquake response of each grid-cell expansion time series was evaluated and synthesized to extract a short-impending earthquake anomaly identification index. The results show that this index indicated occurrence times and hypocenter for earthquakes of magnitude M≥5. Fourteen earthquakes were predicted accurately, and there were five false reports. This index can therefore be used for the short-impending prediction of earthquakes. 展开更多
关键词 GNSS short-impending earthquake prediction strain anomaly index southwestern China.
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基于动态重力信息的地震前兆与强震短临预报 被引量:1
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作者 张茂省 刘华强 +5 位作者 梁国冰 冯立 董英 贾俊 贾科 孙萍萍 《西北地质》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第3期1-18,共18页
地震预报是当今世界尚未破解的重大科技难题,短临地震预报是地震预报的难点,有效的前兆信息则是短临预报的关键。笔者围绕短临地震预报难题,研制了高精度动态固体潮汐重力仪和大气潮汐重力仪,成功捕获到2010~2023年间的玉树7.1级地震、... 地震预报是当今世界尚未破解的重大科技难题,短临地震预报是地震预报的难点,有效的前兆信息则是短临预报的关键。笔者围绕短临地震预报难题,研制了高精度动态固体潮汐重力仪和大气潮汐重力仪,成功捕获到2010~2023年间的玉树7.1级地震、土耳其7.8级地震等震前几十个小时的动态重力场变化信息。这些信息再现了强震孕育-发生的过程,初步揭示短临阶段“基本稳定→闭锁蓄能→震前平静→能量释放”的强震物理机制,可作为短临地震预报的前兆信息。为实现对短临地震“时−空−强”的准确预报,提出通过动态重力场变化组网观测和分布式前兆信息数据库建设,进一步揭示不同类型地震的动态重力信号响应规律,建立强震发生概率、时间、震中位置及震级预报模型的可行性路径,渴望破解强震短临预报的世界难题。 展开更多
关键词 短临地震预报 地震前兆 地震发生机制 动态重力异常
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怀来断层气CO_2监测及张北-尚义地震的短临预报 被引量:23
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作者 王基华 林元武 高松升 《地震地质》 EI CSCD 北大核心 1998年第2期113-116,共4页
初步总结了怀来后郝窑测点自开展断层气CO2观测以来所获得的中强以上地震的震例。重点介绍了1998年1月10日张北-尚义地震前后该测点断层气CO2的变化特征及对该地震的短临预报。对利用该测点断层气CO2单点预报地震三要... 初步总结了怀来后郝窑测点自开展断层气CO2观测以来所获得的中强以上地震的震例。重点介绍了1998年1月10日张北-尚义地震前后该测点断层气CO2的变化特征及对该地震的短临预报。对利用该测点断层气CO2单点预报地震三要素及其有关问题进行了初步的讨论。 展开更多
关键词 断层气 临震预报 张北-尚义 地震 二氧化碳
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1997年新疆伽师强震群及三次成功的临震预报 被引量:55
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作者 朱令人 苏乃秦 杨马陵 《中国地震》 CSCD 北大核心 1998年第2期101-115,共15页
1997年1~4月,新疆伽师发生包含7次6级以上地震的强震群,为板内地震所罕见。伽师强震群发生在相对稳定的塔里木盆地中,震区未发现地表断裂,深部构造不甚清楚。新疆地震局先后3次对伽师地震的强余震和后续强震作了成功的临... 1997年1~4月,新疆伽师发生包含7次6级以上地震的强震群,为板内地震所罕见。伽师强震群发生在相对稳定的塔里木盆地中,震区未发现地表断裂,深部构造不甚清楚。新疆地震局先后3次对伽师地震的强余震和后续强震作了成功的临震(1周内)预报。当地政府采取有力措施,大大减少了人员伤亡,取得了显著的社会效益和经济效益。本文介绍了强震群概况和主要预报过程,总结了临震预报的科学依据,同时指明:伽师强震群的发生给我们提出了一些重要的、需要深入研究的科学问题。伽师地震预报实践又一次启示我们,必须正视地震孕育系统的复杂性,重视地震预报中的方法论和思维及行为问题。 展开更多
关键词 地震 地震预报 强震群 地震预报
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大地震临震预测的研究进展 被引量:12
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作者 任振球 李均之 曾小苹 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 2001年第2期217-223,共7页
短临地震预报尤其是临震预报 ,是当今国内外公认的世界性科学难点。文章综述了中国科学家从多学科交叉和内外因耦合的科学途径 ,已在大地震临震信号方面获得了次声波异常、地应力突跳、虎皮鹦鹉跳跃异常、地电和地磁异常、卫星红外异常... 短临地震预报尤其是临震预报 ,是当今国内外公认的世界性科学难点。文章综述了中国科学家从多学科交叉和内外因耦合的科学途径 ,已在大地震临震信号方面获得了次声波异常、地应力突跳、虎皮鹦鹉跳跃异常、地电和地磁异常、卫星红外异常、重力高频脉冲等临震预测的手段。笔者通过典型分析和普查对比各种地球物理因子和各种天文因子可能影响的整体研究 ,找到了大地震临震的主要触发因子———以月亮为主的非经典引潮力共振的异常叠加。在此基础上 ,采取内外因耦合的途径和方法 ,在 6a多来联合进行的临震预测内部试验表明 ,地震三要素均基本正确的成功率已达40 %。最后 ,还对临震预报问题提出了一些看法。 展开更多
关键词 临震预测 临震信号 触发因子 地震预报 次声波异常 地应力 地磁 地电
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卫星热红外异常——四川汶川Ms8.0级大地震的短临震兆 被引量:38
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作者 魏乐军 郭坚峰 +2 位作者 蔡慧 李海兵 强祖基 《地球学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第5期583-591,共9页
利用我国FY-2C红外一波段(10.3~11.3μm)的卫星遥感图像,通过解译和研究,发现在5.12汶川大地震之前,就出现了明显、孤立的卫星热红外异常现象。其异常现象的特征具体表现为:①震兆出现早:即在2008年3月18日(震前55d),就... 利用我国FY-2C红外一波段(10.3~11.3μm)的卫星遥感图像,通过解译和研究,发现在5.12汶川大地震之前,就出现了明显、孤立的卫星热红外异常现象。其异常现象的特征具体表现为:①震兆出现早:即在2008年3月18日(震前55d),就开始出现了热红外异常;②异常阶段多且复杂:汶川地震前的卫星热红外异常,可分5个阶段,而且热红外异常的展演各有不同。这在众多的卫星热红外地震研究案例中,可能是迄今为止异常阶段最多的一次;③单个阶段的持续时间长:最长达13d;④如此沿龙门山地震断裂带分布的明显的地热增温异常现象,可能在卫星热红外地震研究案例中是首次发现。这对研究发震特点、余震走向具有重要指示和启示意义。本项研究的结果再一次证明:作为地震短临震兆,在地震(特别是≥Ms5.0)前必然出现热红外异常现象的实践性和规律性。利用卫星热红外异常现象进行地震短临预测研究是最有效和最有可能突破地震预测科学问题的途径和方法之一。 展开更多
关键词 汶川 地震 预测 地应力 卫星热红外 短临震兆
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强烈地震震源破裂和深层过程与地震短临预测探索 被引量:24
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作者 滕吉文 张永谦 闫雅芬 《地球物理学报》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第2期428-443,共16页
强烈地震震源区和其周边地域的介质,在力源作用下开始破裂,即微破裂,而当其在应力不断积累、逐渐发展并形成具有一定规模的"破裂链"时,即应力集中达到临界状态时,震源介质所积累的巨大能量以波动的形式瞬间释放,并冲出地表发... 强烈地震震源区和其周边地域的介质,在力源作用下开始破裂,即微破裂,而当其在应力不断积累、逐渐发展并形成具有一定规模的"破裂链"时,即应力集中达到临界状态时,震源介质所积累的巨大能量以波动的形式瞬间释放,并冲出地表发生地震,且在地表产生一系列的破坏和大型断裂.在强烈地震发生后依据设定的初始模型和远、近地震台网记录,通过震源机制解计算,可求得震源介质的破裂长度和破裂过程.事实表明,一系列大地震的"孕育"、发生和发展,由震源深处到地表均呈现出强烈的破裂效应,其破裂长度可由几公里、几十公里、乃至千余公里长.有的地震在发生前确亦存在着破裂响应和迹象.为此,若在地表和深井中能进行破裂效应的观测,以捕捉初始微破裂和其形成"破裂链"的动力过程,这对于短临地震预测可能是一个十分重要的途径. 展开更多
关键词 强烈地震 震源介质 微破裂 破裂链 短临预测
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云南地区地震宏观异常特征研究 被引量:17
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作者 付虹 万登堡 张立 《地震研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2003年第3期209-216,共8页
经历史震例及近几年地震震前短临跟踪预报实践 ,对宏观异常进行深入剖析 ,认为 :宏观异常内容和数量多少与震级有关 ;宏观异常不只是短临和临震异常信息 ,也有不少是中短期、短期异常信息 ;宏观异常分布在震中及附近地区 ;最早出现的宏... 经历史震例及近几年地震震前短临跟踪预报实践 ,对宏观异常进行深入剖析 ,认为 :宏观异常内容和数量多少与震级有关 ;宏观异常不只是短临和临震异常信息 ,也有不少是中短期、短期异常信息 ;宏观异常分布在震中及附近地区 ;最早出现的宏观异常地点对未来地震震中有一定指示意义。 展开更多
关键词 云南 地震 宏观异常特征 震级 地震预报 地点预报 中短期异常 短期临时异常
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