A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

Modeling injection-induced fault slip using long short-term memory networks

Stress changes due to changes in fluid pressure and temperature in a faulted formation may lead to the opening/shearing of the fault.This can be due to subsurface(geo)engineering activities such as fluid injections and geologic disposal of nuclear waste.Such activities are expected to rise in the future making it necessary to assess their short-and long-term safety.Here,a new machine learning(ML)approach to model pore pressure and fault displacements in response to high-pressure fluid injection cycles is developed.The focus is on fault behavior near the injection borehole.To capture the temporal dependencies in the data,long short-term memory(LSTM)networks are utilized.To prevent error accumulation within the forecast window,four critical measures to train a robust LSTM model for predicting fault response are highlighted:(i)setting an appropriate value of LSTM lag,(ii)calibrating the LSTM cell dimension,(iii)learning rate reduction during weight optimization,and(iv)not adopting an independent injection cycle as a validation set.Several numerical experiments were conducted,which demonstrated that the ML model can capture peaks in pressure and associated fault displacement that accompany an increase in fluid injection.The model also captured the decay in pressure and displacement during the injection shut-in period.Further,the ability of an ML model to highlight key changes in fault hydromechanical activation processes was investigated,which shows that ML can be used to monitor risk of fault activation and leakage during high pressure fluid injections.

A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment

Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.

Research on Demand Response Potential of Adjustable Loads in Demand Response Scenarios

To address the issues of limited demand response data,low generalization of demand response potential evaluation,and poor demand response effect,the article proposes a demand response potential feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining and a demand response potential assessment model for adjustable loads in demand response scenarios based on subjective and objective weight analysis.Firstly,based on the demand response process and demand response behavior,obtain demand response characteristics that characterize the process and behavior.Secondly,establish a feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining,including similar day clustering,time series decomposition,redundancy processing,and data prediction.The predicted values of each demand response feature on the response day are obtained.Thirdly,the predicted data of various characteristics on the response day are used as demand response potential evaluation indicators to represent different demand response scenarios and adjustable loads,and a demand response potential evaluation model based on subjective and objective weight allocation is established to calculate the demand response potential of different adjustable loads in different demand response scenarios.Finally,the effectiveness of the method proposed in the article is verified through examples,providing a reference for load aggregators to formulate demand response schemes.

A Combination Prediction Model for Short Term Travel Demand of Urban Taxi

This study proposes a prediction model considering external weather and holiday factors to address the issue of accurately predicting urban taxi travel demand caused by complex data and numerous influencing factors.The model integrates the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN)and Convolutional Long Short Term Memory Neural Network(ConvLSTM)to predict short-term taxi travel demand.The CEEMDAN decomposition method effectively decomposes time series data into a set of modal components,capturing sequence characteristics at different time scales and frequencies.Based on the sample entropy value of components,secondary processing of more complex sequence components after decomposition is employed to reduce the cumulative prediction error of component sequences and improve prediction efficiency.On this basis,considering the correlation between the spatiotemporal trends of short-term taxi traffic,a ConvLSTM neural network model with Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)time series processing ability and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)spatial feature processing ability is constructed to predict the travel demand for urban taxis.The combined prediction model is tested on a taxi travel demand dataset in a certain area of Beijing.The results show that the CEEMDAN-ConvLSTM prediction model outperforms the LSTM,Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA),CNN,and ConvLSTM benchmark models in terms of Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error(SMAPE),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and R2 metrics.Notably,the SMAPE metric exhibits a remarkable decline of 21.03%with the utilization of our proposed model.These results confirm that our study provides a highly accurate and valid model for taxi travel demand forecasting.

Predictive value of red blood cell distribution width and hematocrit for short-term outcomes and prognosis in colorectal cancer patients undergoing radical surgery

BACKGROUND Previous studies have reported that low hematocrit levels indicate poor survival in patients with ovarian cancer and cervical cancer,the prognostic value of hematocrit for colorectal cancer(CRC)patients has not been determined.The prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width(RDW)for CRC patients was controversial.AIM To investigate the impact of RDW and hematocrit on the short-term outcomes and long-term prognosis of CRC patients who underwent radical surgery.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with CRC and underwent radical CRC resection between January 2011 and January 2020 at a single clinical center were included.The short-term outcomes,overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)were compared among the different groups.Cox analysis was also conducted to identify independent risk factors for OS and DFS.RESULTS There were 4258 CRC patients who underwent radical surgery included in our study.A total of 1573 patients were in the lower RDW group and 2685 patients were in the higher RDW group.There were 2166 and 2092 patients in the higher hematocrit group and lower hematocrit group,respectively.Patients in the higher RDW group had more intraoperative blood loss(P<0.01)and more overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the lower RDW group.Similarly,patients in the lower hematocrit group had more intraoperative blood loss(P=0.012),longer hospital stay(P=0.016)and overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the higher hematocrit group.The higher RDW group had a worse OS and DFS than did the lower RDW group for tumor node metastasis(TNM)stage I(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage II(OS,P=0.004;DFS,P=0.01)than the lower RDW group;the lower hematocrit group had worse OS and DFS for TNM stage II(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage III(OS,P=0.001;DFS,P=0.001)than did the higher hematocrit group.Preoperative hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS[P=0.017,hazard ratio(HR)=1.256,95%confidence interval(CI):1.041-1.515]and DFS(P=0.035,HR=1.194,95%CI:1.013-1.408).CONCLUSION A higher preoperative RDW and lower hematocrit were associated with more postoperative complications.However,only hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS and DFS in CRC patients who underwent radical surgery,while RDW was not.

Stochastic programming based coordinated expansion planning of generation,transmission,demand side resources,and energy storage considering the DC transmission system

With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.

Optimal dispatching strategy for residential demand response considering load participation

To facilitate the coordinated and large-scale participation of residential flexible loads in demand response(DR),a load aggregator(LA)can integrate these loads for scheduling.In this study,a residential DR optimization scheduling strategy was formulated considering the participation of flexible loads in DR.First,based on the operational characteristics of flexible loads such as electric vehicles,air conditioners,and dishwashers,their DR participation,the base to calculate the compensation price to users,was determined by considering these loads as virtual energy storage.It was quantified based on the state of virtual energy storage during each time slot.Second,flexible loads were clustered using the K-means algorithm,considering the typical operational and behavioral characteristics as the cluster centroid.Finally,the LA scheduling strategy was implemented by introducing a DR mechanism based on the directrix load.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed DR approach can effectively reduce peak loads and fill valleys,thereby improving the load management performance.

Demand-Responsive Transportation Vehicle Routing Optimization Based on Two-Stage Method

Demand-responsive transportation(DRT)is a flexible passenger service designed to enhance road efficiency,reduce peak-hour traffic,and boost passenger satisfaction.However,existing optimization methods for initial passenger requests fall short in addressing real-time passenger needs.Consequently,there is a need to develop realtime DRT route optimization methods that integrate both initial and real-time requests.This paper presents a twostage,multi-objective optimization model for DRT vehicle scheduling.The first stage involves an initial scheduling model aimed at minimizing vehicle configuration,and operational,and CO_(2)emission costs while ensuring passenger satisfaction.The second stage develops a real-time scheduling model to minimize additional operational costs,penalties for time window violations,and costs due to rejected passengers,thereby addressing real-time demands.Additionally,an enhanced genetic algorithm based on Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II(NSGA-II)is designed,incorporating multiple crossover points to accelerate convergence and improve solution efficiency.The proposed scheduling model is validated using a real network in Shanghai.Results indicate that realtime scheduling can serve more passengers,and improve vehicle utilization and occupancy rates,with only a minor increase in total operational costs.Compared to the traditional NSGA-II algorithm,the improved version enhances convergence speed by 31.7%and solution speed by 4.8%.The proposed model and algorithm offer both theoretical and practical guidance for real-world DRT scheduling.

Short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function

BACKGROUND Hepatectomy is the first choice for treating liver cancer.However,inflammatory factors,released in response to pain stimulation,may suppress perioperative immune function and affect the prognosis of patients undergoing hepatectomies.AIM To determine the short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function.METHODS Clinical data from patients with liver cancer admitted to Suzhou Ninth People’s Hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Thirty-five patients underwent laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer(liver cancer resection group)and 35 patients underwent medical image-guided microwave ablation(liver cancer ablation group).The short-term efficacy,complications,liver function,and immune function indices before and after treatment were compared between the two groups.RESULTS One month after treatment,19 patients experienced complete remission(CR),8 patients experienced partial remission(PR),6 patients experienced stable disease(SD),and 2 patients experienced disease progression(PD)in the liver cancer resection group.In the liver cancer ablation group,21 patients experienced CR,9 patients experienced PR,3 patients experienced SD,and 2 patients experienced PD.No significant differences in efficacy and complications were detected between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups(P>0.05).After treatment,total bilirubin(41.24±7.35 vs 49.18±8.64μmol/L,P<0.001),alanine aminotransferase(30.85±6.23 vs 42.32±7.56 U/L,P<0.001),CD4+(43.95±5.72 vs 35.27±5.56,P<0.001),CD8+(20.38±3.91 vs 22.75±4.62,P<0.001),and CD4+/CD8+(2.16±0.39 vs 1.55±0.32,P<0.001)were significantly different between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups.CONCLUSION The short-term efficacy and safety of microwave ablation and laparoscopic surgery for the treatment of liver cancer are similar,but liver function recovers quickly after microwave ablation,and microwave ablation may enhance immune function.

Optimal Bidding Strategies of Microgrid with Demand Side Management for Economic Emission Dispatch Incorporating Uncertainty and Outage of Renewable Energy Sources

In the restructured electricity market,microgrid(MG),with the incorporation of smart grid technologies,distributed energy resources(DERs),a pumped-storage-hydraulic(PSH)unit,and a demand response program(DRP),is a smarter and more reliable electricity provider.DER consists of gas turbines and renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic systems and wind turbines.Better bidding strategies,prepared by MG operators,decrease the electricity cost and emissions from upstream grid and conventional and renewable energy sources(RES).But it is inefficient due to the very high sporadic characteristics of RES and the very high outage rate.To solve these issues,this study suggests non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)for an optimal bidding strategy considering pumped hydroelectric energy storage and DRP based on outage conditions and uncertainties of renewable energy sources.The uncertainty related to solar and wind units is modeled using lognormal and Weibull probability distributions.TOU-based DRP is used,especially considering the time of outages along with the time of peak loads and prices,to enhance the reliability of MG and reduce costs and emissions.

A Novel Defender-Attacker-Defender Model for Resilient Distributed Generator Planning with Network Reconfiguration and Demand Response

To improve the resilience of a distribution system against extreme weather,a fuel-based distributed generator(DG)allocation model is proposed in this study.In this model,the DGs are placed at the planning stage.When an extreme event occurs,the controllable generators form temporary microgrids(MGs)to restore the load maximally.Simultaneously,a demand response program(DRP)mitigates the imbalance between the power supply and demand during extreme events.To cope with the fault uncertainty,a robust optimization(RO)method is applied to reduce the long-term investment and short-term operation costs.The optimization is formulated as a tri-level defenderattacker-defender(DAD)framework.At the first level,decision-makers work out the DG allocation scheme;at the second level,the attacker finds the optimal attack strategy with maximum damage;and at the third level,restoration measures,namely distribution network reconfiguration(DNR)and demand response are performed.The problem is solved by the nested column and constraint generation(NC&CG)method and the model is validated using an IEEE 33-node system.Case studies validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model according to the enhanced resilience and reduced cost.

Adaptive Successive POI Recommendation via Trajectory Sequences Processing and Long Short-Term Preference Learning

Point-of-interest(POI)recommendations in location-based social networks(LBSNs)have developed rapidly by incorporating feature information and deep learning methods.However,most studies have failed to accurately reflect different users’preferences,in particular,the short-term preferences of inactive users.To better learn user preferences,in this study,we propose a long-short-term-preference-based adaptive successive POI recommendation(LSTP-ASR)method by combining trajectory sequence processing,long short-term preference learning,and spatiotemporal context.First,the check-in trajectory sequences are adaptively divided into recent and historical sequences according to a dynamic time window.Subsequently,an adaptive filling strategy is used to expand the recent check-in sequences of users with inactive check-in behavior using those of similar active users.We further propose an adaptive learning model to accurately extract long short-term preferences of users to establish an efficient successive POI recommendation system.A spatiotemporal-context-based recurrent neural network and temporal-context-based long short-term memory network are used to model the users’recent and historical checkin trajectory sequences,respectively.Extensive experiments on the Foursquare and Gowalla datasets reveal that the proposed method outperforms several other baseline methods in terms of three evaluation metrics.More specifically,LSTP-ASR outperforms the previously best baseline method(RTPM)with a 17.15%and 20.62%average improvement on the Foursquare and Gowalla datasets in terms of the Fβmetric,respectively.

An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Development and validation of a circulating tumor DNA-based optimization-prediction model for short-term postoperative recurrence of endometrial cancer

BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC.

State-of-health estimation for fast-charging lithium-ion batteries based on a short charge curve using graph convolutional and long short-term memory networks

A fast-charging policy is widely employed to alleviate the inconvenience caused by the extended charging time of electric vehicles. However, fast charging exacerbates battery degradation and shortens battery lifespan. In addition, there is still a lack of tailored health estimations for fast-charging batteries;most existing methods are applicable at lower charging rates. This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the health of lithium-ion batteries, which is tailored for multi-stage constant current-constant voltage fast-charging policies. Initially, short charging segments are extracted by monitoring current switches,followed by deriving voltage sequences using interpolation techniques. Subsequently, a graph generation layer is used to transform the voltage sequence into graphical data. Furthermore, the integration of a graph convolution network with a long short-term memory network enables the extraction of information related to inter-node message transmission, capturing the key local and temporal features during the battery degradation process. Finally, this method is confirmed by utilizing aging data from 185 cells and 81 distinct fast-charging policies. The 4-minute charging duration achieves a balance between high accuracy in estimating battery state of health and low data requirements, with mean absolute errors and root mean square errors of 0.34% and 0.66%, respectively.

Integrating Transformer and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory for Intelligent Breast Cancer Detection from Histopathology Biopsy Images

Breast cancer is a significant threat to the global population,affecting not only women but also a threat to the entire population.With recent advancements in digital pathology,Eosin and hematoxylin images provide enhanced clarity in examiningmicroscopic features of breast tissues based on their staining properties.Early cancer detection facilitates the quickening of the therapeutic process,thereby increasing survival rates.The analysis made by medical professionals,especially pathologists,is time-consuming and challenging,and there arises a need for automated breast cancer detection systems.The upcoming artificial intelligence platforms,especially deep learning models,play an important role in image diagnosis and prediction.Initially,the histopathology biopsy images are taken from standard data sources.Further,the gathered images are given as input to the Multi-Scale Dilated Vision Transformer,where the essential features are acquired.Subsequently,the features are subjected to the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)for classifying the breast cancer disorder.The efficacy of the model is evaluated using divergent metrics.When compared with other methods,the proposed work reveals that it offers impressive results for detection.

Vehicle routing optimization algorithm based on time windows and dynamic demand

To provide the supplier with the minimizum vehicle travel distance in the distribution process of goods in three situations of new customer demand,customer cancellation service,and change of customer delivery address,based on the ideas of pre-optimization and real-time optimization,a two-stage planning model of dynamic demand based vehicle routing problem with time windows was established.At the pre-optimization stage,an improved genetic algorithm was used to obtain the pre-optimized distribution route,a large-scale neighborhood search method was integrated into the mutation operation to improve the local optimization performance of the genetic algorithm,and a variety of operators were introduced to expand the search space of neighborhood solutions;At the real-time optimization stage,a periodic optimization strategy was adopted to transform a complex dynamic problem into several static problems,and four neighborhood search operators were used to quickly adjust the route.Two different scale examples were designed for experiments.It is proved that the algorithm can plan the better route,and adjust the distribution route in time under the real-time constraints.Therefore,the proposed algorithm can provide theoretical guidance for suppliers to solve the dynamic demand based vehicle routing problem.

Research on the IL-Bagging-DHKELM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Algorithm Based on Error AP Clustering Analysis

With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.