A Novel Ultra Short-Term Load Forecasting Method for Regional Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Charging Pile Usage Degree

Electric vehicle(EV)charging load is greatly affected by many traffic factors,such as road congestion.Accurate ultra short-term load forecasting(STLF)results for regional EV charging load are important to the scheduling plan of regional charging load,which can be derived to realize the optimal vehicle to grid benefit.In this paper,a regional-level EV ultra STLF method is proposed and discussed.The usage degree of all charging piles is firstly defined by us based on the usage frequency of charging piles,and then constructed by our collected EV charging transactiondata in thefield.Secondly,these usagedegrees are combinedwithhistorical charging loadvalues toform the inputmatrix for the deep learning based load predictionmodel.Finally,long short-termmemory(LSTM)neural network is used to construct EV charging load forecastingmodel,which is trained by the formed inputmatrix.The comparison experiment proves that the proposed method in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with traditionalmethods.In addition,load characteristic index for the fluctuation of adjacent day load and adjacent week load are proposed by us,and these fluctuation factors are used to assess the prediction accuracy of the EV charging load,together with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).

Transformer-based correction scheme for short-term bus load prediction in holidays

To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduce complexity and capture inherent characteristics more effectively.Gated residual connections are then employed to selectively propagate salient features across layers,while an attention mechanism focuses on identifying prominent patterns in multivariate time-series data.Ultimately,a pre-trained structure is incorporated to reduce computational complexity.Experimental results based on extensive data show that the proposed scheme achieves improved prediction accuracy over comparative algorithms by at least 32.00%consistently across all buses evaluated,and the fitting effect of holiday load curves is outstanding.Meanwhile,the pre-trained structure drastically reduces the training time of the proposed algorithm by more than 65.75%.The proposed scheme can efficiently predict bus load results while enhancing robustness for holiday predictions,making it better adapted to real-world prediction scenarios.

Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

Long-lasting,reinforced electrical networking in a high-loading Li_(2)S cathode for high-performance lithium–sulfur batteries

Realizing a lithium sulfide(Li_(2)S)cathode with both high energy density and a long lifespan requires an innovative cathode design that maximizes electrochemical performance and resists electrode deterioration.Herein,a high-loading Li_(2)S-based cathode with micrometric Li_(2)S particles composed of two-dimensional graphene(Gr)and one-dimensional carbon nanotubes(CNTs)in a compact geometry is developed,and the role of CNTs in stable cycling of high-capacity Li–S batteries is emphasized.In a dimensionally combined carbon matrix,CNTs embedded within the Gr sheets create robust and sustainable electron diffusion pathways while suppressing the passivation of the active carbon surface.As a unique point,during the first charging process,the proposed cathode is fully activated through the direct conversion of Li_(2)S into S_(8) without inducing lithium polysulfide formation.The direct conversion of Li_(2)S into S_(8) in the composite cathode is ubiquitously investigated using the combined study of in situ Raman spectroscopy,in situ optical microscopy,and cryogenic transmission electron microscopy.The composite cathode demonstrates unprecedented electrochemical properties even with a high Li_(2)S loading of 10 mg cm^(–2);in particular,the practical and safe Li–S full cell coupled with a graphite anode shows ultra-long-term cycling stability over 800 cycles.

Electric Vehicle Charging Capacity of Distribution Network Considering Conventional Load Composition

At present,the large-scale access to electric vehicles(EVs)is exerting considerable pressure on the distribution network.Hence,it is particularly important to analyze the capacity of the distribution network to accommodate EVs.To this end,we propose a method for analyzing the EV capacity of the distribution network by considering the composition of the conventional load.First,the analysis and pretreatment methods for the distribution network architecture and conventional load are proposed.Second,the charging behavior of an EVis simulated by combining the Monte Carlo method and the trip chain theory.After obtaining the temporal and spatial distribution of the EV charging load,themethod of distribution according to the proportion of the same type of conventional load among the nodes is adopted to integrate the EV charging load with the conventional load of the distribution network.By adjusting the EV ownership,the EV capacity in the distribution network is analyzed and solved on the basis of the following indices:node voltage,branch current,and transformer capacity.Finally,by considering the 10-kV distribution network in some areas of an actual city as an example,we show that the proposed analysis method can obtain a more reasonable number of EVs to be accommodated in the distribution network.

Construction of strong built-in electric field in binary metal sulfide heterojunction to propel high-loading lithium-sulfur batteries

The practical application of lithium-sulfur(Li-S)batteries is greatly hindered by soluble polysulfides shuttling and sluggish sulfur redox kinetics.Rational design of multifunctional hybrid materials with superior electronic conductivity and high electrocatalytic activity,e.g.,heterostructures,is a promising strategy to solve the above obstacles.Herein,a binary metal sulfide MnS-MoS_(2) heterojunction electrocatalyst is first designed for the construction of high-sulfur-loaded and durable Li-S batteries.The MnS-MoS_(2) p-n heterojunction shows a unique structure of MoS_(2) nanosheets decorated with ample MnS nanodots,which contributes to the formation of a strong built-in electric field at the two-phase interface.The MnS-MoS_(2) hybrid host shows strong soluble polysulfide affinity,enhanced electronic conductivity,and exceptional catalytic effect on sulfur reduction.Benefiting from the synergistic effect,the as-derived S/MnS-MoS_(2) cathode delivers a superb rate capability(643 m A h g^(-1)at 6 C)and a durable cyclability(0.048%decay per cycle over 1000 cycles).More impressively,an areal capacity of 9.9 m A h cm^(-2)can be achieved even under an extremely high sulfur loading of 14.7 mg cm^(-2)and a low electrolyte to sulfur ratio of 2.9μL mg^(-1).This work provides an in-depth understanding of the interfacial catalytic effect of binary metal compound heterojunctions on sulfur reaction kinetics.

Machine Learning-based Electric Load Forecasting for Peak Demand Control in Smart Grid

Increasing energy demands due to factors such as population,globalization,and industrialization has led to increased challenges for existing energy infrastructure.Efficient ways of energy generation and energy consumption like smart grids and smart homes are implemented to face these challenges with reliable,cheap,and easily available sources of energy.Grid integration of renewable energy and other clean distributed generation is increasing continuously to reduce carbon and other air pollutants emissions.But the integration of distributed energy sources and increase in electric demand enhance instability in the grid.Short-term electrical load forecasting reduces the grid fluctuation and enhances the robustness and power quality of the grid.Electrical load forecasting in advance on the basic historical data modelling plays a crucial role in peak electrical demand control,reinforcement of the grid demand,and generation balancing with cost reduction.But accurate forecasting of electrical data is a very challenging task due to the nonstationary and nonlinearly nature of the data.Machine learning and artificial intelligence have recognized more accurate and reliable load forecastingmethods based on historical load data.The purpose of this study is to model the electrical load of Jajpur,Orissa Grid for forecasting of load using regression type machine learning algorithms Gaussian process regression(GPR).The historical electrical data and whether data of Jajpur is taken for modelling and simulation and the data is decided in such a way that the model will be considered to learn the connection among past,current,and future dependent variables,factors,and the relationship among data.Based on this modelling of data the network will be able to forecast the peak load of the electric grid one day ahead.The study is very helpful in grid stability and peak load control management.

Long-Term Electrical Load Forecasting in Rwanda Based on Support Vector Machine Enhanced with Q-SVM Optimization Kernel Function

In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.

Hybrid partial least squares and neural network approach for short-term electrical load forecasting

Intelligent systems and methods such as the neural network （NN） are usually used in electric power systems for short-term electrical load forecasting. However, a vast amount of electrical load data is often redundant, and linearly or nonlinearly correlated with each other. Highly correlated input data can result in erroneous prediction results given out by an NN model. Besides this, the determination of the topological structure of an NN model has always been a problem for designers. This paper presents a new artificial intelligence hybrid procedure for next day electric load forecasting based on partial least squares （PLS） and NN. PLS is used for the compression of data input space, and helps to determine the structure of the NN model. The hybrid PLS-NN model can be used to predict hourly electric load on weekdays and weekends. The advantage of this methodology is that the hybrid model can provide faster convergence and more precise prediction results in comparison with abductive networks algorithm. Extensive testing on the electrical load data of the Puget power utility in the USA confirms the validity of the proposed approach.

Buckling behavior of micro metal wire on polymer membrane under combined effect of electrical loading and mechanical loading

The buckling behavior of a typical structure consisting of a micro constantan wire and a polymer membrane under coupled electrical-mechanical loading was studied. The phenomenon that the constantan wire delaminates from the polymer membrane was observed after unloading. The interfacial toughness of the constantan wire and the polymer membrane was estimated. Moreover, several new instability modes of the constantan wire could be further triggered based on the buckle-driven delamination. After electrical loading and tensile loading, the constantan wire was likely to fracture based on buckling. After electrical loading and compressive loading, the constantan wire was easily folded at the top of the buckling region. On the occasion, the constantan wire buckled towards the inside of the polymer membrane under electrical-compressive loading. The mechanisms of these instability modes were analyzed.

A Levenberg–Marquardt Based Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.

Research on Propeller Dynamic Load Simulation System of Electric Propulsion Ship

A dynamic marine propeller simulation system was developed, which is utilized for meeting the experimental requirement of theory research and engineering design of marine electric propulsion system. By applying an actual ship parameter and its accurate propeller J＇ -KT＇ and J＇ - Kp＇ curve data, functional experiments based on the simulation system were carried out. The experiment results showed that the system can correctly emulate the propeller characteristics, produce the dynamic and steady performances of the propeller under different navigation modes, and present actual load torque for electric propulsion motor.

A comprehensive review for wind,solar,and electrical load forecasting methods

Wind power,solar power,and electrical load forecasting are essential works to ensure the safe and stable operation of the electric power system.With the increasing permeability of new energy and the rising demand response load,the uncertainty on the production and load sides are both increased,bringing new challenges to the forecasting work and putting forward higher requirements to the forecasting accuracy.Most review/survey papers focus on one specific forecasting object(wind,solar,or load),a few involve the above two or three objects,but the forecasting objects are surveyed separately.Some papers predict at least two kinds of objects simultaneously to cope with the increasing uncertainty at both production and load sides.However,there is no corresponding review at present.Hence,our study provides a comprehensive review of wind,solar,and electrical load forecasting methods.Furthermore,the survey of Numerical Weather Prediction wind speed/irradiance correction methods is also included in this manuscript.Challenges and future research directions are discussed at last.

Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distribution Stations Based on the Clustering Improvement Fuzzy Time Series Algorithm

An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.

Research on the optimization strategy of customers’electricity consumption based on big data

Current power systems face significant challenges in supporting large-scale access to new energy sources,and the potential of existing flexible resources needs to be fully explored from the power supply,grid,and customer perspectives.This paper proposes a multi-objective electricity consumption optimization strategy considering the correlation between equipment and electricity consumption.It constructs a multi-objective electricity consumption optimization model that considers the correlation between equipment and electricity consumption to maximize economy and comfort.The results show that the proposed method can accurately assess the potential for electricity consumption optimization and obtain an optimal multi-objective electricity consumption strategy based on customers’actual electricity consumption demand.

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting with Hybrid TPA-BiLSTM Prediction Model Based on CSSA

Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.

Overview of the Global Electricity System in Oman Considering Energy Demand Model Forecast

Lately,in modern smart power grids,energy demand for accurate forecast of electricity is gaining attention,with increased interest of research.This is due to the fact that a good energy demand forecast would lead to proper responses for electricity demand.In addition,proper energy demand forecast would ensure efficient planning of the electricity industry and is critical in the scheduling of the power grid capacity and management of the entire power network.As most power systems are been deregulated and with the rapid introduction and development of smart-metering technologies in Oman,new opportunities may arise considering the efficiency and reliability of the power system;like price-based demand response programs.These programs could either be a large scale for household,commercial or industrial users.However,excellent demand forecasting models are crucial for the deployment of these smart metering in the power grid based on good knowledge of the electricity market structure.Consequently,in this paper,an overview of the Oman regulatory regime,financial mechanism,price control,and distribution system security standard were presented.More so,the energy demand forecast in Oman was analysed,using the econometric model to forecasts its energy peak demand.The energy econometric analysis in this study describes the relationship between the growth of historical electricity consumption and macro-economic parameters(by region,and by tariff),considering a case study of Mazoon Electricity Distribution Company(MZEC),which is one of the major power distribution companies in Oman,for effective energy demand in the power grid.

Adaptive electricity theft detection method based on load shape dictionary of customers

With the application of the advanced measurement infrastructure in power grids,data driven electricity theft detection methods become the primary stream for pinpointing electricity thieves.However,owing to anomaly submergence,which shows that the usage patterns of electricity thieves may not always deviate from those of normal users,the performance of the existing usage-pattern-based method could be affected.In addition,the detection results of some unsupervised learning algorithm models are abnormal degrees rather than“0-1”to ascertain whether electricity theft has occurred.The detection with fixed threshold value may lead to deviation and would not be sufficiently flexible to handle the detection for different scenes and users.To address these issues,this study proposes a new electricity theft detection method based on load shape dictionary of users.A corresponding strategy for tunable threshold is proposed to optimize the detection effect of electricity theft,and the efficacy and applicability of the proposed adaptive electricity theft detection method were verified from numerical experiments.

Deep learning for time series forecasting:The electric load case

Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructures such as smart grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting,which,due to its non-linear nature,remains a challenging task.Recently,deep learning has emerged in the machine learning field achieving impressive performance in a vast range of tasks,from image classification to machine translation.Applications of deep learning models to the electric load forecasting problem are gaining interest among researchers as well as the industry,but a comprehensive and sound comparison among different-also traditional-architectures is not yet available in the literature.This work aims at filling the gap by reviewing and experimentally evaluating four real world datasets on the most recent trends in electric load forecasting,by contrasting deep learning architectures on short-term forecast(oneday-ahead prediction).Specifically,the focus is on feedforward and recurrent neural networks,sequence-to-sequence models and temporal convolutional neural networks along with architectural variants,which are known in the signal processing community but are novel to the load forecasting one.

Optimization modeling method for coal-to-electricity heating load considering differential decisions

Heating by electricity rather than coal is considered one effective way to reduce environmental problems. Thus, the electric heating load is growing rapidly, which may cause undesired problems in distribution grids because of the randomness and dispersed integration of the load. However, the electric heating load may also function as an energy storage system with optimal operational control. Therefore, the optimal modeling of electric heating load characteristics, considering its randomness, is important for grid planning and construction. In this study, the heating loads of distributed residential users in a certain area are modeled based on the Fanger thermal comfort equation and the predicted mean vote thermal comfort index calculation method. Different temperatures are considered while modeling the users' heating loads. The heat load demand curve is estimated according to the time-varying equation of interior temperature. A multi-objective optimization model for the electric heating load with heat energy storage is then studied considering the demand response(DR), which optimizes economy and the comfort index. A fuzzy decision method is proposed, considering the factors influencing DR behavior. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is verified by simulations. The results show that the proposed model performs better than the traditional method.