Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

The Influence of Air Pollution Concentrations on Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using CNN-LSTM-mRMR Feature Extraction

Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weather conditions on solar radiation such as temperature and precipitation utilizing convolutional neural network(CNN),but no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentrations of air pollutants along with weather conditions.This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on deep learning,expanding the feature set by adding new air pollution concentrations,and ranking these features to select and reduce their size to improve efficiency.In order to improve the accuracy of feature selection,a maximum-dependency and minimum-redundancy(mRMR)criterion is applied to the constructed feature space to identify and rank the features.The combination of air pollution data with weather conditions data has enabled the prediction of solar irradiance with a higher accuracy.An evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted in Istanbul over 12 months for 43791 discrete times,with the main purpose of analyzing air data,including particular matter(PM10 and PM25),carbon monoxide(CO),nitric oxide(NOX),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),ozone(O₃),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))using a CNN,a long short-term memory network(LSTM),and MRMR feature extraction.Compared with the benchmark models with root mean square error(RMSE)results of 76.2,60.3,41.3,32.4,there is a significant improvement with the RMSE result of 5.536.This hybrid model presented here offers high prediction accuracy,a wider feature set,and a novel approach based on air concentrations combined with weather conditions for solar irradiance prediction.

A Levenberg–Marquardt Based Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.

Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distribution Stations Based on the Clustering Improvement Fuzzy Time Series Algorithm

An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting with Hybrid TPA-BiLSTM Prediction Model Based on CSSA

Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.

Available parking space occupancy change characteristics and short-term forecasting model

Based on an available parking space occupancy （APSO） survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections. Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented. In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO. Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively. Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO. A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.

Comparison of the City Water Consumption Short-Term Forecasting Methods

There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This article draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method.

Load-forecasting method for IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features

To fully exploit the rich characteristic variation laws of an integrated energy system(IES)and further improve the short-term load-forecasting accuracy,a load-forecasting method is proposed for an IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features.Feature expansion was performed to construct a comprehensive load day covering the load and meteorological information with coarse and fine time granularity,far and near time periods.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM)was used to divide the scene of the comprehensive load day,and gray correlation analysis was used to match the scene with the coarse time granularity characteristics of the day to be forecasted.Five typical days with the highest correlation with the day to be predicted in the scene were selected to construct a“dynamic similar day”by weighting.The key features of adjacent days and dynamic similar days were used to forecast multi-loads with fine time granularity using LSTM.Comparing the static features as input and the selection method of similar days based on non-extended single features,the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method was verified.

Bi-LSTM-Based Deep Stacked Sequence-to-Sequence Autoencoder for Forecasting Solar Irradiation and Wind Speed

Wind and solar energy are two popular forms of renewable energy used in microgrids and facilitating the transition towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.However,they are exceedingly unpredictable since they rely highly on weather and atmospheric conditions.In microgrids,smart energy management systems,such as integrated demand response programs,are permanently established on a step-ahead basis,which means that accu-rate forecasting of wind speed and solar irradiance intervals is becoming increasingly crucial to the optimal operation and planning of microgrids.With this in mind,a novel“bidirectional long short-term memory network”(Bi-LSTM)-based,deep stacked,sequence-to-sequence autoencoder(S2SAE)forecasting model for predicting short-term solar irradiation and wind speed was developed and evaluated in MATLAB.To create a deep stacked S2SAE prediction model,a deep Bi-LSTM-based encoder and decoder are stacked on top of one another to reduce the dimension of the input sequence,extract its features,and then reconstruct it to produce the forecasts.Hyperparameters of the proposed deep stacked S2SAE forecasting model were optimized using the Bayesian optimization algorithm.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the proposed Bi-LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model was compared to three other deep,and shallow stacked S2SAEs,i.e.,the LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model,gated recurrent unit-based deep stacked S2SAE model,and Bi-LSTM-based shallow stacked S2SAE model.All these models were also optimized and modeled in MATLAB.The results simulated based on actual data confirmed that the proposed model outperformed the alternatives by achieving an accuracy of up to 99.7%,which evidenced the high reliability of the proposed forecasting.

A forecasting model for wave heights based on a long short-term memory neural network

To explore new operational forecasting methods of waves,a forecasting model for wave heights at three stations in the Bohai Sea has been developed.This model is based on long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network with sea surface wind and wave heights as training samples.The prediction performance of the model is evaluated,and the error analysis shows that when using the same set of numerically predicted sea surface wind as input,the prediction error produced by the proposed LSTM model at Sta.N01 is 20%,18%and 23%lower than the conventional numerical wave models in terms of the total root mean square error(RMSE),scatter index(SI)and mean absolute error(MAE),respectively.Particularly,for significant wave height in the range of 3–5 m,the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model is improved the most remarkably,with RMSE,SI and MAE all decreasing by 24%.It is also evident that the numbers of hidden neurons,the numbers of buoys used and the time length of training samples all have impact on the prediction accuracy.However,the prediction does not necessary improve with the increase of number of hidden neurons or number of buoys used.The experiment trained by data with the longest time length is found to perform the best overall compared to other experiments with a shorter time length for training.Overall,long short-term memory neural network was proved to be a very promising method for future development and applications in wave forecasting.

Theory Study and Application of the BP-ANN Method for Power Grid Short-Term Load Forecasting

Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid （China） based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.

Case Study of a Short-Term Wave Energy Forecasting Scheme:North Indian Ocean

Short-term forecasts of wave energy play a key role in the daily operation,maintenance planning,and electrical grid operation of power farms.In this study,we propose a short-term wave energy forecast scheme and use the North Indian Ocean(NIO)as a case study.Compared with the traditional forecast scheme,our proposed scheme considers more forecast elements.In addition to the traditional short-term forecast factors related to wave energy(wave power,significant wave height(SWH),wave period),our scheme emphasizes the forecast of a series of key factors that are closely related to the effectiveness of the energy output,capture efficiency,and conversion efficiency.These factors include the available rate,total storage,effective storage,co-occurrence of wave power-wave direction,co-occurrence of the SWH-wave period,and the wave energy at key points.In the regional nesting of nu-merical simulations of wave energy in the NIO,the selection of the southern boundary is found to have a significant impact on the simulation precision,especially during periods of strong swell processes of the South Indian Ocean(SIO)westerly.During tropical cyclone‘VARDAH’in the NIO,as compared with the simulation precision obtained with no expansion of the southern boundary(scheme-1),when the southern boundary is extended to the tropical SIO(scheme-2),the improvement in simulation precision is significant,with an obvious increase in the correlation coefficient and decrease in error.In addition,the improvement is much more significant when the southern boundary extends to the SIO westerly(scheme-3).In the case of strong swell processes generated by the SIO westerly,the improvement obtained by scheme-3 is even more significant.

A hybrid model for short-term rainstorm forecasting based on a back-propagation neural network and synoptic diagnosis

Rainstorms are one of the most important types of natural disaster in China.In order to enhance the ability to forecast rainstorms in the short term,this paper explores how to combine a back-propagation neural network(BPNN)with synoptic diagnosis for predicting rainstorms,and analyzes the hit rates of rainstorms for the above two methods using the county of Tianquan as a case study.Results showed that the traditional synoptic diagnosis method still has an important referential meaning for most rainstorm types through synoptic typing and statistics of physical quantities based on historical cases,and the threat score(TS)of rainstorms was more than 0.75.However,the accuracy for two rainstorm types influenced by low-level easterly inverted troughs was less than 40%.The BPNN method efficiently forecasted these two rainstorm types;the TS and equitable threat score(ETS)of rainstorms were 0.80 and 0.79,respectively.The TS and ETS of the hybrid model that combined the BPNN and synoptic diagnosis methods exceeded the forecast score of multi-numerical simulations over the Sichuan Basin without exception.This kind of hybrid model enhanced the forecasting accuracy of rainstorms.The findings of this study provide certain reference value for the future development of refined forecast models with local features.

Short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on LMD-EE-ESN with error correction

Considering the instability of the output power of photovoltaic(PV)generation system,to improve the power regulation ability of PV power during grid-connected operation,based on the quantitative analysis of meteorological conditions,a short-term prediction method of PV power based on LMD-EE-ESN with iterative error correction was proposed.Firstly,through the fuzzy clustering processing of meteorological conditions,taking the power curves of PV power generation in sunny,rainy or snowy,cloudy,and changeable weather as the reference,the local mean decomposition(LMD)was carried out respectively,and their energy entropy(EE)was taken as the meteorological characteristics.Then,the historical generation power series was decomposed by LMD algorithm,and the hierarchical prediction of the power curve was realized by echo state network(ESN)prediction algorithm combined with meteorological characteristics.Finally,the iterative error theory was applied to the correction of power prediction results.The analysis of the historical data in the PV power generation system shows that this method avoids the influence of meteorological conditions in the short-term prediction of PV output power,and improves the accuracy of power prediction on the condition of hierarchical prediction and iterative error correction.

Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Water Consumption Based on the Largest Lyapunov Exponent

An approach for short-term forecasting of municipal water consumption was presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of chaos theory. The chaotic characteristics of time series of urban water consumption were examined by means of the largest Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. By using the largest Lyapunov exponent a short-term forecasting model for urban water consumption was developed, which was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) approach in a case study. The result indicates that the model based on the largest Lyapunov exponent has higher prediction precision and forecasting stability than the ANN method, and its forecasting mean relative error is 9.6% within its maximum predictable time scale while it is 60.6% beyond the scale.

Short-term load forecasting based on fuzzy neural network

The fuzzy neural network is applied to the short-term load forecasting. The fuzzy rules and fuzzy membership functions of the network are obtained through fuzzy neural network learming. Three inference algorithms, i.e. themultiplicative inference, the maximum inference and the minimum inference, are used for comparison. The learningalgorithms corresponding to the inference methods are derived from back-propagation algorithm. To validate the fuzzyneural network model, the network is used to Predict short-term load by compaing the network output against the realload data from a local power system supplying electricity to a large steel manufacturer. The experimental results aresatisfactory.

Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Using a Combination of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Inference

This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.

Research on the short-term fishery forecasting of Spanish mackerel (Scomberomerus niphonius)

-This paper presents the use of the hydrographic factors in short-term fishery forecasting of the spawning migration stock of the Spanish mackerel and salinity describes more concretely the correlativity of water temperature, salinity and air temperature with the fishing season in spring. The data have been collected from the hydrographic environmental investigation at the fixed position on the sea and the telegraph recordings of the drift net operation in the spring fishing season during the period of April and May from 1972 to 1980. The correlation coefficients of various factors with the data of the fishing season have been calculated by using the monadic regression method.The main reference targets of the forecasting are: (1) By using the upper-layer water temperature as the forecasting factor at the beginning of the fishing season, the accuracy is high; (2) the distribution and location of the isotherm of the upper-layer water at 10°C at the beginning of April are used as an important factor for determining the location and the range of the central fishing area of the Spanish mackerel; (3) whether a low temperature area at 8°C existing at the Estuary of the Changjiang River can be used as an important factor for forecasting the migration distribution of the Spanish mackerel moving to the north.

Application of Grey Theory to Ionospheric Short-term Forecasting

By analysis of historical data of the ionosphere, it is suggested to apply grey theory to ionospheric short-term forecasting, grey range information entropy is defined to determine the optimum grey length of the sample sequence, the prediction model based on residual error is constructed, and the observation data of multiple ionospheric observation stations in China are adopted for test. The prediction result indicates that the average grey range information entropy calculation results reflect the cyclical effects of solar rotation, precision of the forecasting method in high latitudes is higher than low latitudes, and its error is large relatively in more intense solar activity season, the effect of forecasting 1 day in advance of average relative residuals are less than 1 MHz, the average precision is more than 90%. It provides a new way of thinking for the ionospheric foF2 short-term forecast in the future.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Radial Basis Function Neural Network

An accurate short-term forecasting method for load of electric power system can help the electric power system’s operator to reduce the risk of unreliability of electricity supply. This paper proposed a radial basis function (RBF) neural network method to forecast the short-term load of electric power system. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical load data information of the Tai power system. The good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained;the numerical results show that the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.