By developing a GDMOD model to estimate the environmental externalities associated with electricity generation, this project provides a detailed analysis of the damages and costs caused by different pollutants at vary...By developing a GDMOD model to estimate the environmental externalities associated with electricity generation, this project provides a detailed analysis of the damages and costs caused by different pollutants at varying distances from the Mawan Electricity Plant in Shenzhen, China. The major findings of this study can be summarized that (1) environmental damages caused by electricity production are large and are mainly imposed on regions far away from the electricity plant; (2) air pollution is the most significant contributor to the total damages, and SO2, NOx, and particulate matter are the three major pollutants with highest damages; (3) the damages caused per unit of particulate, NOx, and SO2 emissions are much higher than pollution treatment and prevention costs. The research results of this project showed that China needs to have a more effective levy system on SO2, and a more manageable electricity tariff mechanism to internalize the environmental externalities. The results have also implications for pollution control strategies, compensation schemes as well as emission trading arrangements.展开更多
This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-tu...This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.展开更多
Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. ...Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.展开更多
The actual circumstances of daily life are crucial for the purchasing and pricing strategies of supermarkets.Developing strategies based on these circumstances can assist businesses in ensuring profits and fostering w...The actual circumstances of daily life are crucial for the purchasing and pricing strategies of supermarkets.Developing strategies based on these circumstances can assist businesses in ensuring profits and fostering win-win cooperation.This paper explores methods to maximize profit through purchasing and sales strategies.Initially,the relevant data for various categories of vegetables is integrated.Through histograms,their sales patterns are directly understood,highlighting the most popular vegetables.Upon analyzing each vegetable category,it becomes evident that their sales data do not conform to normal distributions.Therefore,Spearman correlation coefficients are calculated,revealing strong correlations between certain categories,such as aquatic roots and edible fungi.A line chart depicting the top ten selling vegetables indicates a noticeable periodicity.Traditional fitting methods struggle to adequately model the sales of each vegetable category and their relationship with cost-plus pricing.To address this,additional factors such as holidays,weeks,and months are incorporated using techniques like random forest regression.This approach yields cost-plus pricing dependence curves that better capture the relationship,while effectively managing noise.Regarding sales volume prediction,the original data displays significant volatility,necessitating the handling of outliers using the threshold method.For missing data,linear interpolation is employed to mitigate the impact of continuous missing values on prediction accuracy.Subsequently,Adam-optimized long short-term memory(LSTM)networks are utilized to forecast incoming quantities for the next seven days.By extrapolating from normal sales volume,market capacity is estimated,allowing for additional sales through discount strategies.This framework has the potential to increase original income by 1.1 times.展开更多
Decarbonisation of power systems is essential for realising carbon neutrality,in which the economic cost caused by carbon needs to be qualified.Based on the formulation of locational marginal price(LMP),this paper pro...Decarbonisation of power systems is essential for realising carbon neutrality,in which the economic cost caused by carbon needs to be qualified.Based on the formulation of locational marginal price(LMP),this paper proposes a locational marginal electricity-carbon price(EC-LMP)model to reveal carbon-related costs caused by power consumers.A carbon-priceintegrated optimal power flow(C-OPF)is then developed to maximise economic efficiency of the power system considering the costs of electricity and carbon.Case studies are presented to demonstrate the new formulation and results demonstrate the efficacy of the EC-LMP-based C-OPF on decarbonisation and economy.展开更多
The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The s...The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The soybean future contracts are taken as an example to simulate the forecast based on the auto-regression coefficient(p),differential times(d) and moving average coefficient(q). The results show that ARIMA model is better to simulate and forecast the trend of closing prices of soybean futures contract,and it is applicable to forecasting the price of agricultural futures.展开更多
In power market, electricity price forecasting provides significant information which can help the electricity market participants to prepare corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their profits. This paper intr...In power market, electricity price forecasting provides significant information which can help the electricity market participants to prepare corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their profits. This paper introduces the models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) which are applied to the price forecasts for up to 3 steps 8 weeks ahead in the UK electricity market. The half hourly data of historical prices are obtained from UK Reference Price Data from March 22nd to July 14th 2010 and the predictions are derived from a sliding training window with a length of 8 weeks. The ARIMA with various AR and MA orders and the ANN with different numbers of delays and neurons have been established and compared in terms of the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of price forecasts. The experimental results illustrate that the ARIMA (4,1,2) model gives greater improvement over persistence than the ANN (20 neurons, 4 delays) model.展开更多
On March 20,China hiked f uel prices by the biggest margin in nearly three years after a surge in the cost of global crude,the government and state media said.The rise is the second this year and
On March 31,2010,China formally introduced a margin trading system,which announced that China's capital market has completed the transformation from a unilateral transaction model to a bilateral transaction model ...On March 31,2010,China formally introduced a margin trading system,which announced that China's capital market has completed the transformation from a unilateral transaction model to a bilateral transaction model with a short-selling mechanism.However,the current development of China's margin trading and securities lending businesses is seriously unbalanced,and the scale of financing far exceeds the scale of securities lending.The short selling effect of securities lending exchanges is extremely limited,which to some extent violates the original intention of introducing the system.In order to help margin trading and securities lending to correct a healthy and sustainable development path,this article uses stock price synchronicity as a proxy indicator to measure the information efficiency of the capital market,explores the impact of the margin trading system on the information efficiency of the capital market,and study the detailed characteristics and economic consequences of the margin trading system.Aiming at this topic,this article analyzes the relationship between margin financing and securities lending and stock price synchronicity.Finally,it analyzes the influence of margin financing and securities lending system on stock price synchronicity from three dimensions of corporate governance,external supervision,and institutional environment mechanism.In terms of empirical research,this article takes advantage of the“quasi-natural experiment”provided by the gradual opening of margin trading and securities lending in China’s securities market,and selects listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2019 as the research objects,starting from the perspective of stock price synchronicity,and passing The DID-FE model studies the impact of the margin trading and securities lending system on the information efficiency of the capital market.It uses three methods:parallel trend and dynamic testing,PSM-DID analysis,and placebo testing for robustness testing to solve the endogeneity problem of the experiment.This article also conducts deeper research on the subject based on the two dimensions of the impact mechanism of margin financing and securities lending and the size of the company,and finally discusses the economic impact of margin financing and securities lending on the level of company innovation.展开更多
文摘By developing a GDMOD model to estimate the environmental externalities associated with electricity generation, this project provides a detailed analysis of the damages and costs caused by different pollutants at varying distances from the Mawan Electricity Plant in Shenzhen, China. The major findings of this study can be summarized that (1) environmental damages caused by electricity production are large and are mainly imposed on regions far away from the electricity plant; (2) air pollution is the most significant contributor to the total damages, and SO2, NOx, and particulate matter are the three major pollutants with highest damages; (3) the damages caused per unit of particulate, NOx, and SO2 emissions are much higher than pollution treatment and prevention costs. The research results of this project showed that China needs to have a more effective levy system on SO2, and a more manageable electricity tariff mechanism to internalize the environmental externalities. The results have also implications for pollution control strategies, compensation schemes as well as emission trading arrangements.
文摘This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.
文摘Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.
文摘The actual circumstances of daily life are crucial for the purchasing and pricing strategies of supermarkets.Developing strategies based on these circumstances can assist businesses in ensuring profits and fostering win-win cooperation.This paper explores methods to maximize profit through purchasing and sales strategies.Initially,the relevant data for various categories of vegetables is integrated.Through histograms,their sales patterns are directly understood,highlighting the most popular vegetables.Upon analyzing each vegetable category,it becomes evident that their sales data do not conform to normal distributions.Therefore,Spearman correlation coefficients are calculated,revealing strong correlations between certain categories,such as aquatic roots and edible fungi.A line chart depicting the top ten selling vegetables indicates a noticeable periodicity.Traditional fitting methods struggle to adequately model the sales of each vegetable category and their relationship with cost-plus pricing.To address this,additional factors such as holidays,weeks,and months are incorporated using techniques like random forest regression.This approach yields cost-plus pricing dependence curves that better capture the relationship,while effectively managing noise.Regarding sales volume prediction,the original data displays significant volatility,necessitating the handling of outliers using the threshold method.For missing data,linear interpolation is employed to mitigate the impact of continuous missing values on prediction accuracy.Subsequently,Adam-optimized long short-term memory(LSTM)networks are utilized to forecast incoming quantities for the next seven days.By extrapolating from normal sales volume,market capacity is estimated,allowing for additional sales through discount strategies.This framework has the potential to increase original income by 1.1 times.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2166211).
文摘Decarbonisation of power systems is essential for realising carbon neutrality,in which the economic cost caused by carbon needs to be qualified.Based on the formulation of locational marginal price(LMP),this paper proposes a locational marginal electricity-carbon price(EC-LMP)model to reveal carbon-related costs caused by power consumers.A carbon-priceintegrated optimal power flow(C-OPF)is then developed to maximise economic efficiency of the power system considering the costs of electricity and carbon.Case studies are presented to demonstrate the new formulation and results demonstrate the efficacy of the EC-LMP-based C-OPF on decarbonisation and economy.
文摘The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The soybean future contracts are taken as an example to simulate the forecast based on the auto-regression coefficient(p),differential times(d) and moving average coefficient(q). The results show that ARIMA model is better to simulate and forecast the trend of closing prices of soybean futures contract,and it is applicable to forecasting the price of agricultural futures.
文摘In power market, electricity price forecasting provides significant information which can help the electricity market participants to prepare corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their profits. This paper introduces the models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) which are applied to the price forecasts for up to 3 steps 8 weeks ahead in the UK electricity market. The half hourly data of historical prices are obtained from UK Reference Price Data from March 22nd to July 14th 2010 and the predictions are derived from a sliding training window with a length of 8 weeks. The ARIMA with various AR and MA orders and the ANN with different numbers of delays and neurons have been established and compared in terms of the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of price forecasts. The experimental results illustrate that the ARIMA (4,1,2) model gives greater improvement over persistence than the ANN (20 neurons, 4 delays) model.
文摘On March 20,China hiked f uel prices by the biggest margin in nearly three years after a surge in the cost of global crude,the government and state media said.The rise is the second this year and
文摘On March 31,2010,China formally introduced a margin trading system,which announced that China's capital market has completed the transformation from a unilateral transaction model to a bilateral transaction model with a short-selling mechanism.However,the current development of China's margin trading and securities lending businesses is seriously unbalanced,and the scale of financing far exceeds the scale of securities lending.The short selling effect of securities lending exchanges is extremely limited,which to some extent violates the original intention of introducing the system.In order to help margin trading and securities lending to correct a healthy and sustainable development path,this article uses stock price synchronicity as a proxy indicator to measure the information efficiency of the capital market,explores the impact of the margin trading system on the information efficiency of the capital market,and study the detailed characteristics and economic consequences of the margin trading system.Aiming at this topic,this article analyzes the relationship between margin financing and securities lending and stock price synchronicity.Finally,it analyzes the influence of margin financing and securities lending system on stock price synchronicity from three dimensions of corporate governance,external supervision,and institutional environment mechanism.In terms of empirical research,this article takes advantage of the“quasi-natural experiment”provided by the gradual opening of margin trading and securities lending in China’s securities market,and selects listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2019 as the research objects,starting from the perspective of stock price synchronicity,and passing The DID-FE model studies the impact of the margin trading and securities lending system on the information efficiency of the capital market.It uses three methods:parallel trend and dynamic testing,PSM-DID analysis,and placebo testing for robustness testing to solve the endogeneity problem of the experiment.This article also conducts deeper research on the subject based on the two dimensions of the impact mechanism of margin financing and securities lending and the size of the company,and finally discusses the economic impact of margin financing and securities lending on the level of company innovation.