An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Asphalt pavement short-term rutting analysis and prediction considering temperature and traffic loading conditions

The rutting simulation method considering temperature variance and traffic time distribution is developed through ABAQUS software. The short-term behavior of pavement rut under the effects of temperature and traffic loading is addressed. Then sensitivity analysis on the factors of temperature and traffic loading is conducted and a short-term rutting prediction model is developed. The results show that under the same conditions of temperature and the number of load repetitions, rut increases sharply with the contact pressure in a linear manner, while as for the heavy load situation, the increases likely to be more nonlinear and faster; the significant factors affecting rutting include daily maximum air temperature, daily solar radiation volume, daily minimum air temperature, tire-pavement contact pressure and the number of load repetitions. Finally, a short-term rutting prediction model reflecting the effects of air temperature and traffic loading is developed, and it can be used for prediction and pre-waming for pavement rut prevention.

A two-stage short-term traffic flow prediction method based on AVL and AKNN techniques

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Road Network Topology

Accurate short-term traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation system (ITS), because it can assist both traffic authorities and individual travelers make better decisions. Previous researches mostly focus on shallow traffic prediction models, which performances were unsatisfying since short-term traffic flow exhibits the characteristics of high nonlinearity, complexity and chaos. Taking the spatial and temporal correlations into consideration, a new traffic flow prediction method is proposed with the basis on the road network topology and gated recurrent unit (GRU). This method can help researchers without professional traffic knowledge extracting generic traffic flow features effectively and efficiently. Experiments are conducted by using real traffic flow data collected from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PEMS) database in San Diego and Oakland from June 15, 2017 to September 27, 2017. The results demonstrate that our method outperforms other traditional approaches in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE).

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on LSTM-XGBoost Combination Model

According to the time series characteristics of the trajectory history data,we predicted and analyzed the traffic flow.This paper proposed a LSTMXGBoost model based urban road short-term traffic flow prediction in order to analyze and solve the problems of periodicity,stationary and abnormality of time series.It can improve the traffic flow prediction effect,achieve efficient traffic guidance and traffic control.The model combined the characteristics of LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)network and XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting)algorithms.First,we used the LSTM model that increases dropout layer to train the data set after preprocessing.Second,we replaced the full connection layer with the XGBoost model.Finally,we depended on the model training to strengthen the data association,avoided the overfitting phenomenon of the fully connected layer,and enhanced the generalization ability of the prediction model.We used the Kears based on TensorFlow to build the LSTM-XGBoost model.Using speed data samples of multiple road sections in Shenzhen to complete the model verification,we achieved the comparison of the prediction effects of the model.The results show that the combined prediction model used in this paper can not only improve the accuracy of prediction,but also improve the practicability,real-time and scalability of the model.

A Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on a Three-Layer K-Nearest Neighbor Non-Parametric Regression Algorithm

Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.

Short-term traffic flow prediction with PSR-XGBoostconsidering chaotic characteristics

To improve the level of active traffic management,a short-term traffic flow prediction model is proposed by combining phase space reconstruction(PSR)and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)algorithms.Firstly,the traditional data preprocessing method is improved.The new method uses hierarchical clustering to determine the traffic flow state and fills in missing and abnormal data according to different traffic flow states.Secondly,one-dimensional data are mapped into a multidimensional data matrix through PSR,and the time series complex network is used to verify the data reconstruction effect.Finally,the multidimensional data matrix is inputted into the XGBoost model to predict future traffic flow parameters.The experimental results show that the mean square error,average absolute error,and average absolute percentage error of the prediction results of the PSR-XGBoost model are 5.399%,1.632%,and 6.278%,respectively,and the required running time is 17.35 s.Compared with mathematical-statistical models and other machine learning models,the PSR-XGBoost model has clear advantages in multiple predictive indicators,proving its feasibility and superiority in short-term traffic flow prediction.

Short-term traffic flow online forecasting based on kernel adaptive filter

Considering that the prediction accuracy of the traditional traffic flow forecasting model is low,based on kernel adaptive filter(KAF)algorithm,kernel least mean square(KLMS)algorithm and fixed-budget kernel recursive least-square(FB-KRLS)algorithm are presented for online adaptive prediction.The computational complexity of the KLMS algorithm is low and does not require additional solution paradigm constraints,but its regularization process can solve the problem of regularization performance degradation in high-dimensional data processing.To reduce the computational complexity,the sparse criterion is introduced into the KLMS algorithm.To further improve forecasting accuracy,FB-KRLS algorithm is proposed.It is an online learning method with fixed memory budget,and it is capable of recursively learning a nonlinear mapping and changing over time.In contrast to a previous approximate linear dependence(ALD)based technique,the purpose of the presented algorithm is not to prune the oldest data point in every time instant but it aims to prune the least significant data point,thus suppressing the growth of kernel matrix.In order to verify the validity of the proposed methods,they are applied to one-step and multi-step predictions of traffic flow in Beijing.Under the same conditions,they are compared with online adaptive ALD-KRLS method and other kernel learning methods.Experimental results show that the proposed KAF algorithms can improve the prediction accuracy,and its online learning ability meets the actual requirements of traffic flow and contributes to real-time online forecasting of traffic flow.

Network traffic classification:Techniques,datasets,and challenges

In network traffic classification,it is important to understand the correlation between network traffic and its causal application,protocol,or service group,for example,in facilitating lawful interception,ensuring the quality of service,preventing application choke points,and facilitating malicious behavior identification.In this paper,we review existing network classification techniques,such as port-based identification and those based on deep packet inspection,statistical features in conjunction with machine learning,and deep learning algorithms.We also explain the implementations,advantages,and limitations associated with these techniques.Our review also extends to publicly available datasets used in the literature.Finally,we discuss existing and emerging challenges,as well as future research directions.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Applying an Improved Dung Beetle Optimizer Algorithm to Network Traffic Identification

Network traffic identification is critical for maintaining network security and further meeting various demands of network applications.However,network traffic data typically possesses high dimensionality and complexity,leading to practical problems in traffic identification data analytics.Since the original Dung Beetle Optimizer(DBO)algorithm,Grey Wolf Optimization(GWO)algorithm,Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA),and Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)algorithm have the shortcomings of slow convergence and easily fall into the local optimal solution,an Improved Dung Beetle Optimizer(IDBO)algorithm is proposed for network traffic identification.Firstly,the Sobol sequence is utilized to initialize the dung beetle population,laying the foundation for finding the global optimal solution.Next,an integration of levy flight and golden sine strategy is suggested to give dung beetles a greater probability of exploring unvisited areas,escaping from the local optimal solution,and converging more effectively towards a global optimal solution.Finally,an adaptive weight factor is utilized to enhance the search capabilities of the original DBO algorithm and accelerate convergence.With the improvements above,the proposed IDBO algorithm is then applied to traffic identification data analytics and feature selection,as so to find the optimal subset for K-Nearest Neighbor(KNN)classification.The simulation experiments use the CICIDS2017 dataset to verify the effectiveness of the proposed IDBO algorithm and compare it with the original DBO,GWO,WOA,and PSO algorithms.The experimental results show that,compared with other algorithms,the accuracy and recall are improved by 1.53%and 0.88%in binary classification,and the Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS)class identification is the most effective in multi-classification,with an improvement of 5.80%and 0.33%for accuracy and recall,respectively.Therefore,the proposed IDBO algorithm is effective in increasing the efficiency of traffic identification and solving the problem of the original DBO algorithm that converges slowly and falls into the local optimal solution when dealing with high-dimensional data analytics and feature selection for network traffic identification.

Network Intrusion Traffic Detection Based on Feature Extraction

With the increasing dimensionality of network traffic,extracting effective traffic features and improving the identification accuracy of different intrusion traffic have become critical in intrusion detection systems(IDS).However,both unsupervised and semisupervised anomalous traffic detection methods suffer from the drawback of ignoring potential correlations between features,resulting in an analysis that is not an optimal set.Therefore,in order to extract more representative traffic features as well as to improve the accuracy of traffic identification,this paper proposes a feature dimensionality reduction method combining principal component analysis and Hotelling’s T^(2) and a multilayer convolutional bidirectional long short-term memory(MSC_BiLSTM)classifier model for network traffic intrusion detection.This method reduces the parameters and redundancy of the model by feature extraction and extracts the dependent features between the data by a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)network,which fully considers the influence between the before and after features.The network traffic is first characteristically downscaled by principal component analysis(PCA),and then the downscaled principal components are used as input to Hotelling’s T^(2) to compare the differences between groups.For datasets with outliers,Hotelling’s T^(2) can help identify the groups where the outliers are located and quantitatively measure the extent of the outliers.Finally,a multilayer convolutional neural network and a BiLSTM network are used to extract the spatial and temporal features of network traffic data.The empirical consequences exhibit that the suggested approach in this manuscript attains superior outcomes in precision,recall and F1-score juxtaposed with the prevailing techniques.The results show that the intrusion detection accuracy,precision,and F1-score of the proposed MSC_BiLSTM model for the CIC-IDS 2017 dataset are 98.71%,95.97%,and 90.22%.

BSTFNet:An Encrypted Malicious Traffic Classification Method Integrating Global Semantic and Spatiotemporal Features

While encryption technology safeguards the security of network communications,malicious traffic also uses encryption protocols to obscure its malicious behavior.To address the issues of traditional machine learning methods relying on expert experience and the insufficient representation capabilities of existing deep learning methods for encrypted malicious traffic,we propose an encrypted malicious traffic classification method that integrates global semantic features with local spatiotemporal features,called BERT-based Spatio-Temporal Features Network(BSTFNet).At the packet-level granularity,the model captures the global semantic features of packets through the attention mechanism of the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers(BERT)model.At the byte-level granularity,we initially employ the Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit(BiGRU)model to extract temporal features from bytes,followed by the utilization of the Text Convolutional Neural Network(TextCNN)model with multi-sized convolution kernels to extract local multi-receptive field spatial features.The fusion of features from both granularities serves as the ultimate multidimensional representation of malicious traffic.Our approach achieves accuracy and F1-score of 99.39%and 99.40%,respectively,on the publicly available USTC-TFC2016 dataset,and effectively reduces sample confusion within the Neris and Virut categories.The experimental results demonstrate that our method has outstanding representation and classification capabilities for encrypted malicious traffic.

Detection of Abnormal Network Traffic Using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory

Nowadays,web systems and servers are constantly at great risk from cyberattacks.This paper proposes a novel approach to detecting abnormal network traffic using a bidirectional long short-term memory(LSTM)network in combination with the ensemble learning technique.First,the binary classification module was used to detect the current abnormal flow.Then,the abnormal flows were fed into the multilayer classification module to identify the specific type of flow.In this research,a deep learning bidirectional LSTM model,in combination with the convolutional neural network and attention technique,was deployed to identify a specific attack.To solve the real-time intrusion-detecting problem,a stacking ensemble-learning model was deployed to detect abnormal intrusion before being transferred to the attack classification module.The class-weight technique was applied to overcome the data imbalance between the attack layers.The results showed that our approach gained good performance and the F1 accuracy on the CICIDS2017 data set reached 99.97%,which is higher than the results obtained in other research.

Urban Traffic Control Meets Decision Recommendation System:A Survey and Perspective

Urban traffic control is a multifaceted and demanding task that necessitates extensive decision-making to ensure the safety and efficiency of urban transportation systems.Traditional approaches require traffic signal professionals to manually intervene on traffic control devices at the intersection level,utilizing their knowledge and expertise.However,this process is cumbersome,labor-intensive,and cannot be applied on a large network scale.Recent studies have begun to explore the applicability of recommendation system for urban traffic control,which offer increased control efficiency and scalability.Such a decision recommendation system is complex,with various interdependent components,but a systematic literature review has not yet been conducted.In this work,we present an up-to-date survey that elucidates all the detailed components of a recommendation system for urban traffic control,demonstrates the utility and efficacy of such a system in the real world using data and knowledgedriven approaches,and discusses the current challenges and potential future directions of this field.

Spatiotemporal Prediction of Urban Traffics Based on Deep GNN

Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of traffic data.As well as to fulfil both long-termand short-termprediction objectives,a better representation of the temporal dependency and global spatial correlation of traffic data is needed.In order to do this,the Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network(S-GNN)is proposed in this research as amethod for traffic prediction.The S-GNN simultaneously accepts various traffic data as inputs and investigates the non-linear correlations between the variables.In terms of modelling,the road network is initially represented as a spatiotemporal directed graph,with the features of the samples at the time step being captured by a convolution module.In order to assign varying attention weights to various adjacent area nodes of the target node,the adjacent areas information of nodes in the road network is then aggregated using a graph network.The data is output using a fully connected layer at the end.The findings show that S-GNN can improve short-and long-term traffic prediction accuracy to a greater extent;in comparison to the control model,the RMSE of S-GNN is reduced by about 0.571 to 9.288 and the MAE(Mean Absolute Error)by about 0.314 to 7.678.The experimental results on two real datasets,Pe MSD7(M)and PEMS-BAY,also support this claim.

Impacts of bus holding strategy on the performance and pollutant emissions of a two-lane mixed traffic system

This paper investigates the impacts of a bus holding strategy on the mutual interference between buses and passenger cars in a non-dedicated bus route,as well as the impacts on the characteristics of pollutant emissions of passenger cars.The dynamic behaviors of these two types of vehicles are described using cellular automata(CA)models under open boundary conditions.Numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the phase diagrams of the bus system and the trajectories of buses and passenger cars before and after the implementation of the bus holding strategy under different probabilities of passenger cars entering a two-lane mixed traffic system.Then,we analyze the flow rate,satisfaction rate,and pollutant emission rates of passenger cars together with the performance of a mixed traffic system.The results show that the bus holding strategy can effectively alleviate bus bunching,whereas it has no significant impact on the flow rate and pollutant emission rates of passenger cars;the flow rate,satisfaction rate,and pollutant emission rates of passenger cars for either the traffic system or for each lane are influenced by the bus departure interval and the number of passengers arriving at bus stops.

Segment routing for traffic engineering and effective recovery in low-earth orbit satellite constellations

Low-Earth Orbit Satellite Constellations(LEO-SCs)provide global,high-speed,and low latency Internet access services,which bridges the digital divide in the remote areas.As inter-satellite links are not supported in initial deployment(i.e.the Starlink),the communication between satellites is based on ground stations with radio frequency signals.Due to the rapid movement of satellites,this hybrid topology of LEO-SCs and ground stations is time-varying,which imposes a major challenge to uninterrupted service provisioning and network management.In this paper,we focus on solving two notable problems in such a ground station-assisted LEO-SC topology,i.e.,traffic engineering and fast reroute,to guarantee that the packets are forwarded in a balanced and uninterrupted manner.Specifically,we employ segment routing to support the arbitrary path routing in LEO-SCs.To solve the traffic engineering problem,we proposed two source routings with traffic splitting algorithms,Delay-Bounded Traffic Splitting(DBTS)and DBTS+,where DBTS equally splits a flow and DBTS+favors shorter paths.Simu-lation results show that DBTS+can achieve about 30%lower maximum satellite load at the cost of about 10%more delay.To guarantee the fast recovery of failures,two fast reroute mechanisms,Loop-Free Alternate(LFA)and LFA+,are studied,where LFA pre-computes an alternate next-hop as a backup while LFA+finds a 2-segment backup path.We show that LFA+can increase the percentage of protection coverage by about 15%.

HGNN-ETC: Higher-Order Graph Neural Network Based on Chronological Relationships for Encrypted Traffic Classification

Encrypted traffic plays a crucial role in safeguarding network security and user privacy.However,encrypting malicious traffic can lead to numerous security issues,making the effective classification of encrypted traffic essential.Existing methods for detecting encrypted traffic face two significant challenges.First,relying solely on the original byte information for classification fails to leverage the rich temporal relationships within network traffic.Second,machine learning and convolutional neural network methods lack sufficient network expression capabilities,hindering the full exploration of traffic’s potential characteristics.To address these limitations,this study introduces a traffic classification method that utilizes time relationships and a higher-order graph neural network,termed HGNN-ETC.This approach fully exploits the original byte information and chronological relationships of traffic packets,transforming traffic data into a graph structure to provide the model with more comprehensive context information.HGNN-ETC employs an innovative k-dimensional graph neural network to effectively capture the multi-scale structural features of traffic graphs,enabling more accurate classification.We select the ISCXVPN and the USTC-TK2016 dataset for our experiments.The results show that compared with other state-of-the-art methods,our method can obtain a better classification effect on different datasets,and the accuracy rate is about 97.00%.In addition,by analyzing the impact of varying input specifications on classification performance,we determine the optimal network data truncation strategy and confirm the model’s excellent generalization ability on different datasets.

Network Traffic Synthesis and Simulation Framework for Cybersecurity Exercise Systems

In the rapidly evolving field of cybersecurity,the challenge of providing realistic exercise scenarios that accurately mimic real-world threats has become increasingly critical.Traditional methods often fall short in capturing the dynamic and complex nature of modern cyber threats.To address this gap,we propose a comprehensive framework designed to create authentic network environments tailored for cybersecurity exercise systems.Our framework leverages advanced simulation techniques to generate scenarios that mirror actual network conditions faced by professionals in the field.The cornerstone of our approach is the use of a conditional tabular generative adversarial network(CTGAN),a sophisticated tool that synthesizes realistic synthetic network traffic by learning fromreal data patterns.This technology allows us to handle technical components and sensitive information with high fidelity,ensuring that the synthetic data maintains statistical characteristics similar to those observed in real network environments.By meticulously analyzing the data collected from various network layers and translating these into structured tabular formats,our framework can generate network traffic that closely resembles that found in actual scenarios.An integral part of our process involves deploying this synthetic data within a simulated network environment,structured on software-defined networking(SDN)principles,to test and refine the traffic patterns.This simulation not only facilitates a direct comparison between the synthetic and real traffic but also enables us to identify discrepancies and refine the accuracy of our simulations.Our initial findings indicate an error rate of approximately 29.28%between the synthetic and real traffic data,highlighting areas for further improvement and adjustment.By providing a diverse array of network scenarios through our framework,we aim to enhance the exercise systems used by cybersecurity professionals.This not only improves their ability to respond to actual cyber threats but also ensures that the exercise is cost-effective and efficient.