Application of Elzaki Transform Method to Market Volatility Using the Black-Scholes Model

Black-Scholes Model (B-SM) simulates the dynamics of financial market and contains instruments such as options and puts which are major indices requiring solution. B-SM is known to estimate the correct prices of European Stock options and establish the theoretical foundation for Option pricing. Therefore, this paper evaluates the Black-Schole model in simulating the European call in a cash flow in the dependent drift and focuses on obtaining analytic and then approximate solution for the model. The work also examines Fokker Planck Equation (FPE) and extracts the link between FPE and B-SM for non equilibrium systems. The B-SM is then solved via the Elzaki transform method (ETM). The computational procedures were obtained using MAPLE 18 with the solution provided in the form of convergent series.

Optimal Quota-Share and Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance and Investment with Heston’s Stochastic Volatility Model

An optimal quota-share and excess-of-loss reinsurance and investment problem is studied for an insurer who is allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset.Especially the price process of the risky asset is governed by Heston's stochastic volatility(SV)model.With the objective of maximizing the expected index utility of the terminal wealth of the insurance company,by using the classical tools of stochastic optimal control,the explicit expressions for optimal strategies and optimal value functions are derived.An interesting conclusion is found that it is better to buy one reinsurance than two under the assumption of this paper.Moreover,some numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis are provided.

An Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm for Global Optimization and Realized Volatility Prediction

The original whale optimization algorithm(WOA)has a low initial population quality and tends to converge to local optimal solutions.To address these challenges,this paper introduces an improved whale optimization algorithm called OLCHWOA,incorporating a chaos mechanism and an opposition-based learning strategy.This algorithm introduces chaotic initialization and opposition-based initialization operators during the population initialization phase,thereby enhancing the quality of the initial whale population.Additionally,including an elite opposition-based learning operator significantly improves the algorithm’s global search capabilities during iterations.The work and contributions of this paper are primarily reflected in two aspects.Firstly,an improved whale algorithm with enhanced development capabilities and a wide range of application scenarios is proposed.Secondly,the proposed OLCHWOA is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)networks.Subsequently,a prediction model for Realized Volatility(RV)based on OLCHWOA-LSTM is proposed to optimize hyperparameters automatically.To evaluate the performance of OLCHWOA,a series of comparative experiments were conducted using a variety of advanced algorithms.These experiments included 38 standard test functions from CEC2013 and CEC2019 and three constrained engineering design problems.The experimental results show that OLCHWOA ranks first in accuracy and stability under the same maximum fitness function calls budget.Additionally,the China Securities Index 300(CSI 300)dataset is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed OLCHWOA-LSTM model in predicting RV.The comparison results with the other eight models show that the proposed model has the highest accuracy and goodness of fit in predicting RV.This further confirms that OLCHWOA effectively addresses real-world optimization problems.

Comparative evaluation of commercial Douchi by different molds:biogenic amines,non-volatile and volatile compounds

To provide new insights into the development and utilization of Douchi artificial starters,three common strains(Aspergillus oryzae,Mucor racemosus,and Rhizopus oligosporus)were used to study their influence on the fermentation of Douchi.The results showed that the biogenic amine contents of the three types of Douchi were all within the safe range and far lower than those of traditional fermented Douchi.Aspergillus-type Douchi produced more free amino acids than the other two types of Douchi,and its umami taste was more prominent in sensory evaluation(P<0.01),while Mucor-type and Rhizopus-type Douchi produced more esters and pyrazines,making the aroma,sauce,and Douchi flavor more abundant.According to the Pearson and PLS analyses results,sweetness was significantly negatively correlated with phenylalanine,cysteine,and acetic acid(P<0.05),bitterness was significantly negatively correlated with malic acid(P<0.05),the sour taste was significantly positively correlated with citric acid and most free amino acids(P<0.05),while astringency was significantly negatively correlated with glucose(P<0.001).Thirteen volatile compounds such as furfuryl alcohol,phenethyl alcohol,and benzaldehyde caused the flavor difference of three types of Douchi.This study provides theoretical basis for the selection of starting strains for commercial Douchi production.

Effect of different drying methods on the amino acids,α-dicarbonyls and volatile compounds of rape bee pollen

The significant demand for high quality food has motivated us to adopt appropriate processing methods to improve the food nutritional quality and flavors.In this study,the effects of five drying methods,namely,pulsed vacuum drying(PVD),freeze drying(FD),infrared drying(IRD),hot-air drying(HAD)and sun drying(SD)on free amino acids(FAAs),α-dicarbonyl compounds(α-DCs)and volatile compounds(VOCs)in rape bee pollen(RBP)were determined.The results showed that FD significantly released the essential amino acids(EAAs)compared with fresh samples while SD caused the highest loss.Glucosone was the dominantα-DCs in RBP and the highest loss was observed after PVD.Aldehydes were the dominant volatiles of RBP and SD samples contained more new volatile substances(especially aldehydes)than the other four drying methods.Comprehensively,FD and PVD would be potential methods to effectively reduce the quality deterioration of RBP in the drying process.

Forecasting Stock Volatility Using Wavelet-based Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Methods

In this study,we proposed a new model to improve the accuracy of fore-casting the stock market volatility pattern.The hypothesized model was validated empirically using a data set collected from the Saudi Arabia stock Exchange(Tada-wul).The data is the daily closed price index data from August 2011 to December 2019 with 2027 observations.The proposed forecasting model combines the best maximum overlapping discrete wavelet transform(MODWT)function(Bl14)and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(EGARCH)model.The results show the model's ability to analyze stock market data,highlight important events that contain the most volatile data,and improve forecast accuracy.The results were compared from a number of mathematical mod-els,which are the non-linear spectral model,autoregressive integrated moving aver-age(ARIMA)model and EGARCH model.The performance of the forecasting model will be evaluated based on some of error functions such as Mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),Mean absolute scaled error(MASE)and Root means squared error(RMSE).

Do U.S.economic conditions at the state level predict the realized volatility of oil‑price returns?A quantile machine‑learning approach

Because the U.S.is a major player in the international oil market,it is interesting to study whether aggregate and state-level economic conditions can predict the subse-quent realized volatility of oil price returns.To address this research question,we frame our analysis in terms of variants of the popular heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility(HAR-RV)model.To estimate the models,we use quantile-regression and quantile machine learning(Lasso)estimators.Our estimation results highlights the dif-ferential effects of economic conditions on the quantiles of the conditional distribution of realized volatility.Using weekly data for the period April 1987 to December 2021,we document evidence of predictability at a biweekly and monthly horizon.

Impact of trading hours extensions on foreign exchange volatility:intraday evidence from the Moscow exchange

Using transaction-level tick-by-tick data of same-and next-day settlement of the Russian Ruble versus the US Dollar exchange rate(RUB/USD)traded on the Moscow Exchange Market during the period 2005–2013,we analyze the impact of trading hours extensions on volatility.During the sample period,the Moscow Exchange extended trading hours three times for the same-day settlement and two times for the next-day settlement of the RUB/USD rate.To analyze the effect of the implementations,various measures of historical and realized volatility are calculated for 5-and 15-min intraday intervals spanning a period of three months both prior to and following trading hours extensions.Besides historical volatility measures,we also examine volume and spread.We apply an autoregressive moving average-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(ARMA-GARCH)model utilizing realized volatility and a trade classification rule to estimate the probability of informed trading.The extensions of trading hours cause a significant increase in both volatility and volume for further analyzing the reasons behind volatility changes.Volatility changes mostly occur after the opening of the market.The length of the extension has a significant positive effect on realized volatility.The results indicate that informed trading increased substantially after the opening for the rate of same-day settlement,whereas this is not observed for next-day settlement.Although trading hours extensions raise opportunities for more transactions and liquidity in foreign exchange markets,they may also lead to higher volatility in the market.Furthermore,this distortion is more significant at opening and midday.A potential explanation for the increased volatility mostly at the opening is that the trading hours extension attracts informed traders rather than liquidity providers.

The predictive power of Bitcoin prices for the realized volatility of US stock sector returns

This paper is motivated by Bitcoin’s rapid ascension into mainstream finance and recent evidence of a strong relationship between Bitcoin and US stock markets.It is also motivated by a lack of empirical studies on whether Bitcoin prices contain useful information for the volatility of US stock returns,particularly at the sectoral level of data.We specifically assess Bitcoin prices’ability to predict the volatility of US composite and sectoral stock indices using both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses over multiple forecast horizons,based on daily data from November 22,2017,to December,30,2021.The findings show that Bitcoin prices have significant predictive power for US stock volatility,with an inverse relationship between Bitcoin prices and stock sector volatility.Regardless of the stock sectors or number of forecast horizons,the model that includes Bitcoin prices consistently outperforms the benchmark historical average model.These findings are independent of the volatility measure used.Using Bitcoin prices as a predictor yields higher economic gains.These findings emphasize the importance and utility of tracking Bitcoin prices when forecasting the volatility of US stock sectors,which is important for practitioners and policymakers.

Did weekly economic index and volatility index impact US food sales during the first year of the pandemic?

We explore the impacts of economic and financial dislocations caused by COVID-19 pandemic shocks on food sales in the United States from January 2020 to January 2021.We use the US weekly economic index(WEI)to measure economic dislocations and the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index(VIX)to capture the broader stock market dislocations.We validate the NARDL model by testing a battery of models using the autoregressive distributed lags(ARDL)methodology(ARDL,NARDL,and QARDL specifications).Our study postulates that an increase in WEI has a significant negative long-term effect on food sales,whereas a decrease in WEI has no statistically significant(long-run)effect.Thus,policy responses that ignore asymmetric effects and hidden cointegration may fail to promote food security during pandemics.

Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment

Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.

Exploring Nutritional Compositions,Volatile Compounds,Health Benefits,Emerging Processing Technologies,and Potential Food Products of Glutinous Rice:A Review

Glutinous rice(Oryza sativa var.glutinosa)stands out as one of the most popular rice varieties globally,amidst thousands of rice cultivars.Its increasing popularity is attributed to its rich nutritional compositions and health benefits.This review aims to summarize the nutritional compositions,volatile compounds,and health benefits of glutinous rice.Further,in-depth studies are necessary to explore the utilization of glutinous rice in enhancing processing technologies and developing new food products.Glutinous rice has been shown to possess numerous health benefits,including antioxidant activity,bioactive compounds,anti-cancer properties,anti-inflammatory effects,anti-diabetic potential,and cholesterol-lowering effects.Besides its nutritional compositions,the major volatile compounds identified in glutinous rice could serve as a functional food for human consumption.Emerging processing technologies related to glutinous rice are elaborated to improve the latest developments for incorporating them into various food products.

Predictive value of red blood cell distribution width and hematocrit for short-term outcomes and prognosis in colorectal cancer patients undergoing radical surgery

BACKGROUND Previous studies have reported that low hematocrit levels indicate poor survival in patients with ovarian cancer and cervical cancer,the prognostic value of hematocrit for colorectal cancer(CRC)patients has not been determined.The prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width(RDW)for CRC patients was controversial.AIM To investigate the impact of RDW and hematocrit on the short-term outcomes and long-term prognosis of CRC patients who underwent radical surgery.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with CRC and underwent radical CRC resection between January 2011 and January 2020 at a single clinical center were included.The short-term outcomes,overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)were compared among the different groups.Cox analysis was also conducted to identify independent risk factors for OS and DFS.RESULTS There were 4258 CRC patients who underwent radical surgery included in our study.A total of 1573 patients were in the lower RDW group and 2685 patients were in the higher RDW group.There were 2166 and 2092 patients in the higher hematocrit group and lower hematocrit group,respectively.Patients in the higher RDW group had more intraoperative blood loss(P<0.01)and more overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the lower RDW group.Similarly,patients in the lower hematocrit group had more intraoperative blood loss(P=0.012),longer hospital stay(P=0.016)and overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the higher hematocrit group.The higher RDW group had a worse OS and DFS than did the lower RDW group for tumor node metastasis(TNM)stage I(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage II(OS,P=0.004;DFS,P=0.01)than the lower RDW group;the lower hematocrit group had worse OS and DFS for TNM stage II(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage III(OS,P=0.001;DFS,P=0.001)than did the higher hematocrit group.Preoperative hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS[P=0.017,hazard ratio(HR)=1.256,95%confidence interval(CI):1.041-1.515]and DFS(P=0.035,HR=1.194,95%CI:1.013-1.408).CONCLUSION A higher preoperative RDW and lower hematocrit were associated with more postoperative complications.However,only hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS and DFS in CRC patients who underwent radical surgery,while RDW was not.

Recover Implied Volatility in Short-term Interest Rate Model

This paper concerns an inverse problem of recovering implied volatility in short-term interest rate model from the market prices of zero-coupon bonds. Based on lineariza-tion, an analytic solution, which is given as a power series, is derived for the direct problem.By neglecting high order terms in the power series, an integral equation about the pertur-bation of volatility is formulated and the Tikhonov regularization method is applied to solvethe integral equation. Finally numerical experiments are given and the results show that the method is effective.

Identification of breath volatile organic compounds to distinguish pancreatic adenocarcinoma,pancreatic cystic neoplasm,and patients without pancreatic lesions

BACKGROUND Volatile organic compounds(VOCs)are a promising potential biomarker that may be able to identify the presence of cancers.AIM To identify exhaled breath VOCs that distinguish pancreatic ductal adenocar-cinoma(PDAC)from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm(IPMN)and healthy volunteers.METHODS We collected exhaled breath from histologically proven PDAC patients,radiological diagnosis IPMN,and healthy volunteers using the ReCIVA®device between 10/2021-11/2022.VOCs were identified by thermal desorption-gas chromatography/field-asymmetric ion mobility spectrometry and compared between groups.RESULTS A total of 156 participants(44%male,mean age 62.6±10.6)were enrolled(54 PDAC,42 IPMN,and 60 controls).Among the nine VOCs identified,two VOCs that showed differences between groups were dimethyl sulfide[0.73 vs 0.74 vs 0.94 arbitrary units(AU),respectively;P=0.008]and acetone dimers(3.95 vs 4.49 vs 5.19 AU,respectively;P<0.001).After adjusting for the imbalance parameters,PDAC showed higher dimethyl sulfide levels than the control and IPMN groups,with adjusted odds ratio(aOR)of 6.98(95%CI:1.15-42.17)and 4.56(1.03-20.20),respectively(P<0.05 both).Acetone dimer levels were also higher in PDAC compared to controls and IPMN(aOR:5.12(1.80-14.57)and aOR:3.35(1.47-7.63),respectively(P<0.05 both).Acetone dimer,but not dimethyl sulfide,performed better than CA19-9 in PDAC diagnosis(AUROC 0.910 vs 0.796).The AUROC of acetone dimer increased to 0.936 when combined with CA19-9,which was better than CA19-9 alone(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Dimethyl sulfide and acetone dimer are VOCs that potentially distinguish PDAC from IPMN and healthy participants.Additional prospective studies are required to validate these findings.

Pharmacological effects of volatile oil from chrysanthemum and its associated mechanisms:a review

Volatile oil(VO)is the main chemical component of common plants in Chrysanthemum genus,and it possesses several beneficial pharmacological properties,including bacteriostatic,antioxidant,anti-tumor,anti-inflammatory,antipyretic,analgesic,antiosteoporotic,antihypertensive,sedative,and hypnotic effects.To date,research on the effective components of Chrysanthemum extract has mainly focused on flavonoids,whereas limited data are available on the chemical constituents and underlying mechanisms of action of the VO components.In this review,the pharmacological activities and mechanisms of VO are comprehensively reviewed with the aim of providing a foundation for further development for medicinal,aromatherapy,and diet therapy applications.

Research Progress of Volatile Substances Analysis and Sensory Evaluation of Soymilk

Soybean is one of the important crops in China. Soymilk, a traditional neutral plant-based protein drink, is rich in high quality proteins. Although soybean milk is rich in nutrients, its marketing among consumers, especially those in Western countries who are used to peaceful flavor, has been limited due to the adverse flavor impact brought by its special composition. In recent years, with the increasing attention to the nutritional value of soymilk, the flavor of soymilk has become a popular research object for scholars at home and abroad. The flavor components of soymilk are mainly volatile small molecular compounds produced by enzymatic reactions catalyzed by lipoxygenase(LOX). After formation, they interact with protein macromolecules to form the overall flavor of soymilk. At present, there are many methods to control the off-odor of soymilk at home and abroad, including physical heating methods, chemical methods, biological enzymatic digestion methods, mask methods, and a variety of breeding methods. These methods effectively reduce the off-odor of soymilk, but all of them have shortcomings. Currently, the sensory characteristics of the beany odor in soymilk are evaluated mainly by traditional human sensory scoring along with the assistance of modern instrument analysis of volatile flavor substances using headspace solid phase microextraction(SPME) gas chromatography coupled with-mass spectrometry(GC-MS). This paper summarized the research results of volatile flavor substances in soymilk in recent years and the sensory evaluation methods of soymilk at home and abroad, and looked forward to the future development direction, hoping to provide some theoretical bases and reference detection methods for solving the problem of soymilk flavor in the future.

Short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function

BACKGROUND Hepatectomy is the first choice for treating liver cancer.However,inflammatory factors,released in response to pain stimulation,may suppress perioperative immune function and affect the prognosis of patients undergoing hepatectomies.AIM To determine the short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function.METHODS Clinical data from patients with liver cancer admitted to Suzhou Ninth People’s Hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Thirty-five patients underwent laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer(liver cancer resection group)and 35 patients underwent medical image-guided microwave ablation(liver cancer ablation group).The short-term efficacy,complications,liver function,and immune function indices before and after treatment were compared between the two groups.RESULTS One month after treatment,19 patients experienced complete remission(CR),8 patients experienced partial remission(PR),6 patients experienced stable disease(SD),and 2 patients experienced disease progression(PD)in the liver cancer resection group.In the liver cancer ablation group,21 patients experienced CR,9 patients experienced PR,3 patients experienced SD,and 2 patients experienced PD.No significant differences in efficacy and complications were detected between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups(P>0.05).After treatment,total bilirubin(41.24±7.35 vs 49.18±8.64μmol/L,P<0.001),alanine aminotransferase(30.85±6.23 vs 42.32±7.56 U/L,P<0.001),CD4+(43.95±5.72 vs 35.27±5.56,P<0.001),CD8+(20.38±3.91 vs 22.75±4.62,P<0.001),and CD4+/CD8+(2.16±0.39 vs 1.55±0.32,P<0.001)were significantly different between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups.CONCLUSION The short-term efficacy and safety of microwave ablation and laparoscopic surgery for the treatment of liver cancer are similar,but liver function recovers quickly after microwave ablation,and microwave ablation may enhance immune function.

An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.