Low-Carbon Dispatch of an Integrated Energy System Considering Confidence Intervals for Renewable Energy Generation

Addressing the insufficiency in down-regulation leeway within integrated energy systems stemming from the erratic and volatile nature of wind and solar renewable energy generation,this study focuses on formulating a coordinated strategy involving the carbon capture unit of the integrated energy system and the resources on the load storage side.A scheduling model is devised that takes into account the confidence interval associated with renewable energy generation,with the overarching goal of optimizing the system for low-carbon operation.To begin with,an in-depth analysis is conducted on the temporal energy-shifting attributes and the low-carbon modulation mechanisms exhibited by the source-side carbon capture power plant within the context of integrated and adaptable operational paradigms.Drawing from this analysis,a model is devised to represent the adjustable resources on the charge-storage side,predicated on the principles of electro-thermal coupling within the energy system.Subsequently,the dissimilarities in the confidence intervals of renewable energy generation are considered,leading to the proposition of a flexible upper threshold for the confidence interval.Building on this,a low-carbon dispatch model is established for the integrated energy system,factoring in the margin allowed by the adjustable resources.In the final phase,a simulation is performed on a regional electric heating integrated energy system.This simulation seeks to assess the impact of source-load-storage coordination on the system’s low-carbon operation across various scenarios of reduction margin reserves.The findings underscore that the proactive scheduling model incorporating confidence interval considerations for reduction margin reserves effectively mitigates the uncertainties tied to renewable energy generation.Through harmonized orchestration of source,load,and storage elements,it expands the utilization scope for renewable energy,safeguards the economic efficiency of system operations under low-carbon emission conditions,and empirically validates the soundness and efficacy of the proposed approach.

Serum Vitamin E Reference Intervals in a Black Congolese Population of Kinshasa

Context: Vitamin E is a powerful antioxidant and plays an important role in human reproduction. However, micronutrient deficiency is a major public health problem, particularly in developing countries. This study aimed to establish reference intervals (RIs) for vitamin E in black Congolese people of childbearing age using an ELISA method to provide a reference for clinically assessing vitamin E status. Methods: A total of 127 healthy people between the ages of 20 and 42 who underwent check-ups were randomly selected for the study. ELISA method measured the level of vitamin E. The effect of gender on vitamin E level was assessed, and RI was established using a parametric approach. Results: Women showed significantly higher levels of vitamin E than men (p = 0.01). The RI of vitamin E in people of childbearing age was 3.71 to 13.72, 4.52 to 14.64, and 4.17 to 13.52 mg/L, respectively, for the whole population, women and men. Conclusion: Using an ELISA method, this study established RI for vitamin E in the black Congolese population of childbearing age. We also found that women had significantly higher vitamin E levels than men. The results could provide a scientific basis for interpreting vitamin status in people of childbearing age in our setting.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Different Grades of Short-time Precipitation in Xining City

Based on the hourly precipitation data from 4 observation stations of Xining City from June to September during 2005-2011,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-time precipitation were analyzed.The results show that the precipitation distribution in Xining region exhibited the less-more-less trend from southwest to northeast,while the torrential rain gradually increased from the northwest and southwest to the middle.The hourly general precipitation in Xining region had obviously seasonal characteristics,and its annual distribution showed wavy changes,but the annual variation of short-time heavy precipitation and rainstorm was very obvious.Furthermore,short-time heavy precipitation was concentrated from 18:00 to 24:00,followed by 03:00-07:00 on the following day.The occurrence time of short-time rainstorm accorded with short-time heavy precipitation.It offers a useful reference for the accurate and timely short-term forecast.

Effect of the interval between two shocks on ejecta formation from the grooved aluminum surface

This work focuses on the effect of the interval between two shocks on the ejecta formation from the grooved aluminum(Al_(1100))surface by using smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical simulation.Two unsupported shocks are obtained by the plate-impact between sample and two flyers at interval,with a peak pressure of approximately 30 GPa for each shock.When the shock interval varies from 2.11 to 7.67 times the groove depth,the bubble velocity reduces to a constant,and the micro jetting factor R_(J) from spike to bubble exhibits a non-monotonic change that decreases initially and then increases.At a shock interval of 3.6 times the groove depth,micro jetting factor R_(J) from spike to bubble reaches its minimum value of approximately 0.6.While,the micro jetting factor R_(F) from spike to free surface decreases linearly at first,and stabilizes around 0.25 once the shock interval surpasses 4.18 times the groove depth.When the shock interval is less than 4.18 times the groove depth,the unloading wave generated by the breakout of the first shock wave is superimpose with the unloading part of the second shock wave to form a large tensile area.

An improved interval model updating method via adaptive Kriging models

Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction method.This makes the accuracy of the surrogate model highly dependent on the experience of users and affects the accuracy of IMU methods.Therefore,an improved IMU method via the adaptive Kriging models is proposed.This method transforms the objective function of the IMU problem into two deterministic global optimization problems about the upper bound and the interval diameter through universal grey numbers.These optimization problems are addressed through the adaptive Kriging models and the particle swarm optimization(PSO)method to quantify the uncertain parameters,and the IMU is accomplished.During the construction of these adaptive Kriging models,the sample space is gridded according to sensitivity information.Local sampling is then performed in key subspaces based on the maximum mean square error(MMSE)criterion.The interval division coefficient and random sampling coefficient are adaptively adjusted without human interference until the model meets accuracy requirements.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of a three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring system and an experimental example of a butted cylindrical shell.The results show that the updated results of the interval model are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Left ventricular hypertrophy amplifies the QT,and Tp-e intervals and the Tp-e/QT ratio of left chest ECG

Objective： To evaluate the changes in Tp-e interval （an interval from the peak to the end of the T wave）, QT interval and Tp-e/QT ratio of the body surface ECG in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy （LVH）. Methods： The Tp-e interval and QT interval were measured on body surface ECGs in 42 patients without either hypertension or LVH （control group）, 41 patients having hypertension but not LVH （non-LVH group）, and 38 patients with both hypertension and LVH （LVH group）. Results： The mean corrected QT （QTc） interval, and mean corrected Tp-e[T（p-e）c] interval were significantly longer in the LVH group （0.430±0.021s vs. 0.409±0.019s, p 〈 0.01; 0.098±0.013s vs. 0.088±0.011s, respectively） than those in the control group. The Tp-e/QT ratio was also amplified in LVH group （0.232± 0.028 vs.0.218± 0.027） （p 〈 0.05）. Conclusion： LVH increased the QT interval, Tp-e interval and Tp-e/QT ratio of the body surface ECG.

Motor Fault Diagnosis Based on Short-time Fourier Transform and Convolutional Neural Network

With the rapid development of mechanical equipment, the mechanical health monitoring field has entered the era of big data. However, the method of manual feature extraction has the disadvantages of low efficiency and poor accuracy, when handling big data. In this study, the research object was the asynchronous motor in the drivetrain diagnostics simulator system. The vibration signals of different fault motors were collected. The raw signal was pretreated using short time Fourier transform （STFT） to obtain the corresponding time-frequency map. Then, the feature of the time-frequency map was adap- tively extracted by using a convolutional neural network （CNN）. The effects of the pretreatment method, and the hyper parameters of network diagnostic accuracy, were investigated experimentally. The experimental results showed that the influence of the preprocessing method is small, and that the batch-size is the main factor affecting accuracy and training efficiency. By investigating feature visualization, it was shown that, in the case of big data, the extracted CNN features can represent complex mapping relationships between signal and health status, and can also overcome the prior knowledge and engineering experience requirement for feature extraction, which is used by tra- ditional diagnosis methods. This paper proposes a new method, based on STFT and CNN, which can complete motor fault diagnosis tasks more intelligently and accurately.

Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system

Since the great 1303 Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8, 700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential, this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observation, the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments, and fur-ther analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b-values along the gra-ben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.211016 Nm/a to 3.031016 Nm/a, and its average recurrence interval for M=7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Ling-shi-Hongtong segment, the estimated average recurrence interval for M=8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years, equivalent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.581016 Nm/a to 3.101016 Nm/a. The contour map of b-values shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been being at low or relatively low stress levels, reflecting that since the 1303 M=8 and the 1695 M=7.5 earthquake ruptures, the fault-planes strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments, the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang, have relatively high stress levels, and have been already identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earth-quakes on the both segments.

Analysis of petrophysical cutoffs of reservoir intervals with production capacity and with accumulation capacity in clastic reservoirs

Methodologies have been developed for calculating cutoffs of reservoir intervals with production capacity （RIPC） and reservoir intervals with accumulation capacity （RIAC） according to the types of pore throat structures and dynamic force by using data from petrophysical analysis, production tests and mercury injection. The data are from clastic reservoirs in the third member （Es3） and the fourth member （Es4） of the Shahejie Formation in the Shengtuo area on the North Slope of the Dongying Sag, Jiyang Depression, China. The method of calculating cutoffs of RIPC is summarized as follows： 1） determination of permeability cutoffs of RIPC; 2） classification of types of pore-throat structures according to mercury injection data and then relating porosity to permeability and determining the relationship between porosity and permeability according to each type of pore-throat structure; and 3） calculating porosity cutoffs of RIPC using established correlation between porosity and permeability according to the type of pore throat structure. The method of calculating cutoffs of RIAC includes： 1） establishing a functional relationship between oil-water interracial tension and formation temperature; 2） calculating limiting values of maximum connected pore-throat radii according to formation temperature and dynamic forces of each reservoir interval; 3） correlating permeability with maximum connected pore-throat radius and then obtaining permeability cutoffs of RIAC; and 4） calculating porosity cutoffs on the basis of permeability cutoffs according to specific correlations, suitable for the type of porethroat structure. The results of this study show that porosity and permeability cutoffs of clastic reservoirs decrease with depth. For a fixed permeability cutoff, the porosity cutoff of R1PC varies because the type of pore throat is different. At a fixed temperature, porosity and permeability cutoffs of RIAC decrease as dynamic force increases. For a fixed permeability cutoff of effective hydrocarbon accumulation, the porosity cutoff also varies with different types of pore throat.

Multiple-target tracking with adaptive sampling intervals for phased-array radar

A novel adaptive sampling interval algorithm for multitarget tracking is presented. This algorithm which is based on interacting multiple models incorporates the grey relational grade （GRG） into the particle swarm optimization （PSO）. Firstly, the desired tracking accuracy is set for each target. Secondly, sampling intervals are selected as particles, and then the advantage of the GRG is taken as the measurement function for resource management. Meanwhile, the fitness value of the PSO is used to measure the difference between desired tracking accuracy and estimated tracking accuracy. Finally, it is suggested that the radar should track the target whose prediction value of the next sampling interval is the smallest. Simulations show that the proposed method improves both the tracking accuracy and tracking efficiency of the phased-array radar.

Microstructural evolution in Al–Zn–Mg–Cu–Sc–Zr alloys during short-time homogenization

Abstract： Microstructural evolution in a new kind of aluminum （A1） alloy with the chemical composition of AI-8.82Zn-2.08Mg- 0.80Cu-3.31Sc-0.3Zr was investigated. It is found that the secondary phase MgZn2 is completely dissolved into the matrix during a short homogenization treatment （470℃, 1 h）, while the primary phase A13（Sc,Zr） remains stable. This is due to Sc and Zr additions into the A1 al- loy, high Zn/Mg mass ratio, and low Cu content. The experimental findings fit well with the results calculated by the homogenization diffusion kinetics equation. The alloy shows an excellent mechanical performance after the short homogenization process followed by hot-extrusion and T6 treatment. Consequently, a good combination of low energy consumotion and favorable mechanical properties is obtained.

Determination of reference intervals for metabolic profile of Hanwoo cows at early, middle and late gestation periods

Background： Metabolic profile was initially designed as a presymptomatic diagnostic aid based on statistical analyses of blood metabolites to provide an early warning of certain types of metabolic disorder. However, there is little metabolic profile data available about Korean Hanwoo cows. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the reference intervals of metabolic profile for Korean Hanwoo cows. Methods： Healthy animals （2,205） were selected and divided into early （day 1 to 95）, middle （day 96 to 190） and late （day 191 to 285） period according to their gestating period. Metabolic profile including total protein （TP）, albumin （AIb）, urea （UREA）, glucose （Glu）, total cholesterol （T-Cho）, long-chain fatty acid （LCFA）, aspartate aminotransferase （AST）, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase （GGT）, creatinine （Crea）, calcium （Ca）, inorganic phosphorous （iP） and magnesium （Mg） were analyzed using a TBA-4OFR automatic biochemical analyzer. The data of Korean Hanwoo cows were then compared to those of the Japanese Wagyu cows. Results： Most of the data of the Korean Hanwoo cows were relatively higher than those of Japanese Wagyu cows, with the exception of Glu and GGT. This may indicate that the nutritional level of feed for the Korean Hanwoo cows was higher than that of the Japanese Wagyu cows because of the different feeding system. In particular, relatively higher levels of UREA and LCFA were observed in the Korean Hanwoo cows, and this may also contribute to the low reproduction efficiency. Conclusions： These findings may provide some theoretical basis for understanding the reproductive and feeding situation of Korean Hanwoo cows.

Effect of Saline Water Application through Different Irrigation Intervals on Tomato Yield and Soil Properties

A field study was conducted on the experimental farm of ministry of agriculture, located at Palestine Technical University-Kadoorie, to investigate the effects of saline water irrigation through three irrigation intervals on yield of tomato crop and soil properties. The land was prepared and divided into 12 treatments, each of 48 square meters on the first of April. Tomato seedlings were planted on 25 April 2010;the seedlings were irrigated with fresh water for a period of 10 days after planting. Three levels of saline water irrigation (3, 5, 7 dS/m) plus fresh water as control were applied during the growing season. The four irrigation water treatments were applied through three irrigation intervals (every day, every second day and every three days). Gravimetric soil moisture content and soil electrical conductivity were monitored every two weeks during the growing period. Yield measurements were taken for total fruit yield, marketable yield as a percent of total yield, and average fruit weight of each treatment. Results of this study indicated that, plant treatments irrigated with saline water gave the highest yield for treatments irrigated every day compared to the treatments irrigated every second day and every three days. Statistical analysis showed significant differences in yield reduction between every second day and every three days irrigation intervals under 5 and 7 dS/m saline irrigation levels, while there was no significant difference between irrigation intervals under 3 dS/m salinity level.

Two-agent single machine scheduling with forbidden intervals

We consider the resumable version of the two-agent single machine scheduling prob- lems with forbidden intervals in which the jobs cannot be processed. The goal is to minimize the sum of the objective functions of the two agents. Polynomial and pseudo-polynomial time algorithms are presented for various combinations of regular scheduling objective functions.

Moved Score Confidence Intervals for Means of Discrete Distributions

Let X denote a discrete distribution as Poisson, binomial or negative binomial variable. The score confidence interval for the mean of X is obtained based on inverting the hypothesis test and the central limit theorem is discussed and recommended widely. But it has sharp downward spikes for small means. This paper proposes to move the score interval left a little (about 0.04 unit), called by moved score confidence interval. Numerical computation and Edgeworth expansion show that the moved score interval is analogous to the score interval completely and behaves better for moderate means;for small means the moved interval raises the infimum of the coverage probability and improves the sharp spikes significantly. Especially, it has unified explicit formulations to compute easily.

Establishment of Reference Intervals and Transfusion Criterion for Sonoclot Analysis

Sonoclot analyzer has been widely used in many countries. But the reference intervals provided by the manufacturer were derived from only 45 participants, and there was no cut-off value for transfusion for Sonoclot analysis. This study aimed to establish reference intervals and transfusion criterion for Sonoclot analysis. Volunteers were recruited from healthy Chinese adults and patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Blood samples were withdrawn from forearm vein and measured for activated clotting time（ACT）, clot rate（CR）, platelet function（PF）, activated partial thromboplastin time（APTT）, fibrinogen concentration（FIB）, and platelet count（PLT）. The reference intervals were determined by the nonparametric method. Cut-off values were determined by the receiver operating characteristics curve. A total of 135 healthy volunteers and 281 patients were enrolled. The 95% reference intervals were 96–195 s, 22–51 signal U/min, 〉1.6 for ACT, CR, PF respectively. In the 281 patients, the results of APTT, FIB, PLT, ACT, CR, and PF ranged from 20.5–300.0 s, 0.28–4.11 g/L,（19.0–387.3）×109/L, 80–514 s, 2.9–74 signal U/min, and 0.1–5.1 respectively. The cut-off values for transfusion were 〉208, ≤14, and ≤1.3 for ACT, CR, PF respectively. The cut-off values of Sonoclot analysis were within the manufacturer＇s reference intervals, while they were outside the reference intervals established in this study. The results suggested that the manufacturer＇s reference intervals were not suitable for Chinese. The reference intervals and cut-off values established in this study will be helpful to Chinese patients.

Rules for confidence intervals of permeability coefficients for water flow in over-broken rock mass

Based on the steady-state seepage method, we used the Mechanical Testing and Simulation 815.02 System and a self-designed seepage instrument for over-broken stone to measure seepage properties of water flows in three types of crushed rock samples. Three methods of confidence interval in describing permeability coefficients are presented: the secure interval, the calculated interval and the systemic interval. The lower bound of the secure interval can be applied to water-inrush and the upper bound can solve the problem of connectivity. For the calculated interval, as the axial pressure increases, the length of confidence interval is shortened and the upper and lower bounds are reduced. For the systemic interval, the length of its confidence interval, as well as the upper and lower bounds, clearly vary under low axial pressure but are fairly similar under high axial pressure. These three methods provide useful information and references for analyzing the permeability coefficient of over-broken rock.

Characteristics of Radar Echo Parameters and Microphysical Structure Simulation of a Short-Time Heavy Precipitation Supercell

By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.

Adaptive Short-Time Fractional Fourier Transform Based on Minimum Information Entropy

Traditional short-time fractional Fourier transform(STFrFT)has a single and fixed window function,which can not be adjusted adaptively according to the characteristics of fre-quency and frequency change rate.In order to overcome the shortcomings,the STFrFT method with adaptive window function is proposed.In this method,the window function of STFrFT is ad-aptively adjusted by establishing a library containing multiple window functions and taking the minimum information entropy as the criterion,so as to obtain a time-frequency distribution that better matches the desired signal.This method takes into account the time-frequency resolution characteristics of STFrFT and the excellent characteristics of adaptive adjustment to window func-tion,improves the time-frequency aggregation on the basis of eliminating cross term interference,and provides a new tool for improving the time-frequency analysis ability of complex modulated sig-nals.