Extended Range(10–30 Days) Heavy Rain Forecasting Study Based on a Nonlinear Cross-Prediction Error Model

Extended range （10-30 d） heavy rain forecasting is difficult but performs an important function in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, a nonlinear cross prediction error （NCPE） algorithm that combines nonlinear dynamics and statistical methods is proposed. The method is based on phase space reconstruction of chaotic single-variable time series of precipitable water and is tested in 100 global cases of heavy rain. First, nonlinear relative dynamic error for local attractor pairs is calculated at different stages of the heavy rain process, after which the local change characteristics of the attractors are analyzed. Second, the eigen-peak is defined as a prediction indicator based on an error threshold of about 1.5, and is then used to analyze the forecasting validity period. The results reveal that the prediction indicator features regarded as eigenpeaks for heavy rain extreme weather are all reflected consistently, without failure, based on the NCPE model; the prediction validity periods for 1-2 d, 3-9 d and 10-30 d are 4, 22 and 74 cases, respectively, without false alarm or omission. The NCPE model developed allows accurate forecasting of heavy rain over an extended range of 10-30 d and has the potential to be used to explore the mechanisms involved in the development of heavy rain according to a segmentation scale. This novel method provides new insights into extended range forecasting and atmospheric predictability, and also allows the creation of multi-variable chaotic extreme weather prediction models based on high spatiotemporal resolution data.

A NEW METHOD FOR PREDICTING TROPOSPHERIC RANGE ERROR

Based on the quasi-measured values of tropospheric refraction,the relation betweenand △R as expressed in Eq.(3)is proved,and according to the stable feature of refractivityat 9 km above sea level,a simplified method for predicting tropospheric range error is analysed.Some new parameters for linear regression analysis of tropospheric range error are given also.

Dynamic range and linearity improvement for zero-field single-beam atomic magnetometer

Zero-field single-beam atomic magnetometers with transverse parametric modulation for ultra-weak magnetic field detection have attracted widespread attention recently.In this study,we present a comprehensive response model and propose a modification method of conventional first harmonic response by introducing the second harmonic correction.The proposed modification method gives improvement in dynamic range and reduction of linearity error.Additionally,our modification method shows suppression of response instability caused by optical intensity and frequency fluctuations.An atomic magnetometer with single-beam configuration is built to compare the performance between our proposed method and the conventional method.The results indicate that our method’s magnetic field response signal achieves a 5-fold expansion of dynamic range from 2 nT to 10 nT,with the linearity error decreased from 5%to 1%.Under the fluctuations of 5%for optical intensity and±15 GHz detuning of frequency,the proposed modification method maintains intensityrelated instability less than 1%and frequency-related instability less than 8%while the conventional method suffers 15%and 38%,respectively.Our method is promising for future high-sensitive and long-term stable optically pumped atomic sensors.

Robust detector for range-spread targets in non-Gaussian background

Based on the target scatterer density, the range-spread target detection of high-resolution radar is addressed in additive non-Gaussian clutter, which is modeled as a spherically invariant random vector. Firstly, for sparse scatterer density, the detection of target scatterer in each range cell is derived, and then an M/K detector is proposed to detect the whole range-spread target. Se- condly, an integrating detector is devised to detect a range-spread target with dense scatterer density. Finally, to make the best of the advantages of M/K detector and integrating detector, a robust detector based on scatterer density （DBSD） is designed, which can reduce the probable collapsing loss or quantization error ef- fectively. Moreover, the density decision factor of DBSD is also determined. The formula of the false alarm probability is derived for DBSD. It is proved that the DBSD ensures a constant false alarm rate property. Furthermore, the computational results indi- cate that the DBSD is robust to different clutter one-lag correlations and target scatterer densities. It is also shown that the DBSD out- performs the existing scatterer-density-dependent detector.

Novel reference range selection method in InISAR imaging

Aiming at the reference range selection for different antennas in interferometric inverse synthetic aperture radar （InlSAR） systems, this paper proposes a respective focusing （RF） method. The reference ranges for echoes of different antennas are selected respectively for RF, which is different from the traditional uniform focusing （UF） with the same reference range applied to all the antennas. First, a comparison between UF and RF for InlSAR signal model considering the ranging error is given. Compared with RF, UF has an advantage in overcoming the ranging error differences between different antennas. Then the influence of ranging error upon the interferometric imaging with RF is investigated particularly, and it is found that the ranging error differences between different antennas are far smaller than the wavelength, which is advantageous to imaging. By comparing the capabilities of inter- ferometric imaging between RF and UF, it is concluded that RF is a better choice in conquering problems such as image mismatching and phase ambiguity even with ranging errors. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

Ranging Error Correction Based on a Prior Error Model

Wireless technology provides accurate positioning in indoor environments using time of arrival(TOA) based ranging techniques. However, the positioning accuracy is degraded due to the ranging errors caused by multipath and non-line-of-sight(NLOS) propagation. In this paper, a ranging error correction method is proposed to improve positioning performance. A TOA ranging error model(TREM) is built to provide the prior information for ranging error correction first. The mean value of TREM within a certain interval is used as the ranging error correction value(RECV). As the RECV may be unreasonable sometimes, we adjust it according to the actual positioning situation and then exploit the final RECV to correct ranging data. The experimental results show that the proposed method could well reduce ranging errors and the positioning performance is obviously improved when using corrected ranging data.

A novel wide-range precision instrument for measuring three-dimensional surface topography

We developed a measuring instrument that had wide range, high precision, small measuring touch force. The instrument for three-dimensional (3D) surface topography measurement was composed of a high precision displacement sensor based on the Michelson interference principle, a 3D platform based on vertical scanning, a measuring and control circuit, and an industrial control computer. It was a closed loop control system, which changed the traditional moving stylus scanning style into a moving platform scanning style. When the workpiece was measured, the lever of the displacement sensor returned to the balanced position in every sample interval according to the zero offset of the displacement sensor. The non-linear error caused by the rotation of the lever was, therefore, very small even if the measuring range was wide. The instrument can measure the roughness and the profile size of a curved surface.

LoRa Sense:Sensing and Optimization of LoRa Link Behavior Using Path-Loss Models in Open-Cast Mines

The Internet of Things(IoT)has orchestrated various domains in numerous applications,contributing significantly to the growth of the smart world,even in regions with low literacy rates,boosting socio-economic development.This study provides valuable insights into optimizing wireless communication,paving the way for a more connected and productive future in the mining industry.The IoT revolution is advancing across industries,but harsh geometric environments,including open-pit mines,pose unique challenges for reliable communication.The advent of IoT in the mining industry has significantly improved communication for critical operations through the use of Radio Frequency(RF)protocols such as Bluetooth,Wi-Fi,GSM/GPRS,Narrow Band(NB)-IoT,SigFox,ZigBee,and Long Range Wireless Area Network(LoRaWAN).This study addresses the optimization of network implementations by comparing two leading free-spreading IoT-based RF protocols such as ZigBee and LoRaWAN.Intensive field tests are conducted in various opencast mines to investigate coverage potential and signal attenuation.ZigBee is tested in the Tadicherla open-cast coal mine in India.Similarly,LoRaWAN field tests are conducted at one of the associated cement companies(ACC)in the limestone mine in Bargarh,India,covering both Indoor-toOutdoor(I2O)and Outdoor-to-Outdoor(O2O)environments.A robust framework of path-loss models,referred to as Free space,Egli,Okumura-Hata,Cost231-Hata and Ericsson models,combined with key performance metrics,is employed to evaluate the patterns of signal attenuation.Extensive field testing and careful data analysis revealed that the Egli model is the most consistent path-loss model for the ZigBee protocol in an I2O environment,with a coefficient of determination(R^(2))of 0.907,balanced error metrics such as Normalized Root Mean Square Error(NRMSE)of 0.030,Mean Square Error(MSE)of 4.950,Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)of 0.249 and Scatter Index(SI)of 2.723.In the O2O scenario,the Ericsson model showed superior performance,with the highest R^(2)value of 0.959,supported by strong correlation metrics:NRMSE of 0.026,MSE of 8.685,MAPE of 0.685,Mean Absolute Deviation(MAD)of 20.839 and SI of 2.194.For the LoRaWAN protocol,the Cost-231 model achieved the highest R^(2)value of 0.921 in the I2O scenario,complemented by the lowest metrics:NRMSE of 0.018,MSE of 1.324,MAPE of 0.217,MAD of 9.218 and SI of 1.238.In the O2O environment,the Okumura-Hata model achieved the highest R^(2)value of 0.978,indicating a strong fit with metrics NRMSE of 0.047,MSE of 27.807,MAPE of 27.494,MAD of 37.287 and SI of 3.927.This advancement in reliable communication networks promises to transform the opencast landscape into networked signal attenuation.These results support decision-making for mining needs and ensure reliable communications even in the face of formidable obstacles.

X-ray communication based simultaneous communication and ranging

To improve the link efficiency and decrease the payloads in space explorations, a novel simultaneous communication and ranging method based on x-ray communication（XCOM） is proposed in this paper. A delicate signal symbol structure is utilized to achieve simultaneous data transmission and range measurement. With the designed symbol structure, the ranging information is imbedded into the communication signal and transmitted with it simultaneously. The range measurement is realized by the two-way transmission of the range information. To illustrate the proposed method, firstly, the principle of the method is introduced and the signal processing procedure is presented. Then, the performance of the proposed method is analyzed theoretically in various aspects, including the acquisition probability, the bit error rate, the ranging jitter,etc. Besides, numerical experiments are conducted to verify the proposed method and evaluate the system performance.The simulation results show that the proposed method is feasible and that the system performance is influenced by the parameters concerning the signal symbol structure. Compared with the previous methods, the proposed method improves the link efficiency and is beneficial for system miniaturization and integration, which could provide a potential option for future deep space explorations.

Effect of the firing position on aiming error and probability of hit

Sources of dispersions that contribute to delivery error and reduce the soldier performance in terms of hit probability are numerous.In order to improve the warfighter performance,the source of the errors contributing to the inaccuracy and dispersion of the weapon systems must be understood.They include ammunition dispersion error,gun dispersion,aerodynamic jump and the aiming error.The aiming error or gun pointing error is defined as the angle between the gun muzzle at the instant the trigger is pulled and the line of fire that corresponds to the intendent aim point.This is a round-to-round error.In weapons systems that include the rifle,the ammunition,a sight and a gunner,the aiming error was shown to be the single most important source of dispersion for the regular infantryman.In other words,for the general purpose rifle weapon system,the weak link is often the human.In order to verify and quantify this assertion,an experimental investigation was carried out to determine the aiming error associated with general purpose rifle fired by infantryman.The aiming error was evaluated for various firing positions and scenarios using infantryman for ranges varying between 100 m and 500 m.The results show that the aiming error is the main contributor to dispersion for the general purpose rifle fired by a non-specialized infantryman.The aiming error induced dispersion for unstressed and rested gunners is shown to be at best equivalent to that of the weapon fired from a bench rest by a marksman.Crown Copyright(?) 2019 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of China Ordnance Society.

Analysis of sensitivity and errors in Maglev vibration test system

In order to improve work performance of M aglev vibration test systems,the relationships of operating parameters between different components and system were researched. The working principle of photoelectric displacement sensor was analyzed. The relationship between displacement of transducer and the infrared light area received by sensor was given. The method of expanding the dynamic range of vibrator was proposed,which makes dynamic range of Maglev vibrator doubled. By increasing the amplification of the amplifier,the sensitive photoelectric displacement sensor can be maintained. Two modes of operation of the controller were analyzed. Bilateral work of vibration test system designed can further improve the stability of the system.An object vibration was measured by Maglev vibration test system designed when different vibration exciter frequencies were loaded. Experiments showthat the output frequency measured by Maglev vibration test system and loaded are the same. Finally,the errors of test system were analyzed. These errors of vibration test system designed can meet the requirements of application. The results laid the foundation for the practical application of magnetic levitation vibration test system.

Effects of laser beam divergence angle on airborne LIDAR positioning errors

The influence of laser beam divergence angle on the positioning accuracy of scanning airborne light detection and ranging （LIDAR） is analyzed and simulated. Based on the data process and positioning principle of airborne LIDAR, the errors from pulse broadening induced by laser beam di vergence angle are modeled and qualitatively analyzed for different terrain surfaces. Simulated results of positioning errors and suggestions to reduce them are given for the flat surface, the downhill of slope surface, and the uphill surface.

IDENTIFICATION OF PHASE ERROR BY MULTI-SAMPLING DIGITAL TANLOCKED LOOP(MS-DTL)

A multisampling technique was introduced to the phase error detector of Conventional Digital Tanlocked Loop(C DTL). In this new technique a number of samples ( M ) were taken at nonuniform intervals within one period of the input signal. The novel system is called Multisampling Digital Tanlocked loop(MS DTL). The simulated model on the computer shows that for M =4, the system has a faster locking speed and wider locking in range compared with C DTL.

Research and implementation of continuous wave radar ranging method based on tri-frequency

In the traditional dual-frequency radar ranging system,there is a contradiction between ranging precision and ranging distance.So a tri-frequency ranging method is proposed.The principle of the tri-frequency ranging is that the distance can be achieved by transmitting the three frequencies and then measuring the three phase difference and calculating the number of wavelength.What's more,range ambiguity will not occur within a certain distance.The experimental results show that,if the waveband is 0.47 ~0.57 m,the measurement of unambiguous distance of 25 ~500m can be realized.If the wavelength tolerance error is less than ± 10^(-7) and the phase error is less than ± 10^(-3),the precision of the distance ranging can reach 10^(-6).

基于Romax的新能源汽车减速器齿轮修形研究

以某增程式新能源汽车减速器系统为研究对象,Romax为研究平台。结合齿轮的微观修形理论,以传递误差、面载、齿根应力和接触应力作为优化目标,结合第二代遗传算法提出了一种以齿向鼓形量、齿向斜度、渐开线鼓形量、渐开线斜度综合修形的全新修形方法。通过对优化前后各目标参数的分析对比,得出修形后减小了传递误差、齿根应力等、改善了面载、应力偏载等问题,同时齿轮的传动性能得到了明显提升,其研究方法可更好地指导企业生产实践。

TOMO MVCT在图像引导放射治疗中的应用分析

目的探讨螺旋断层放疗(Tomotherapy)时使用不同兆伏级计算机断层扫描(MVCT)参数对放疗精确度的影响,优化图像引导放疗在临床中的应用。方法选择2023年3月—2024年3月在本院接受螺旋断层放疗的154例患者作为研究对象,随机数表法分为对照组(79例)与实验组(75例)两组。对照组头颈部扫描范围10 cm,胸腹部及盆腔扫描范围20 cm;实验组头颈部扫描范围2 cm,胸腹部及盆腔扫描范围5 cm;所有研究对象每日治疗前进行MVCT扫描,观察两组间摆位误差是否存在差别。结果头颈部肿瘤实验组与对照组摆位误差在所有轴向上均无明显差异,且均值相近。胸腹部肿瘤实验组与对照组摆位误差仅在Y轴方向上有显著差别(P<0.01)。X、Z轴方向误差无显著性差别。盆腔肿瘤实验组与对照组摆位误差在所有轴向上摆位误差均无显著性差别。结论图像引导过程中可以适当减少扫描范围,尤其是头颈部及盆腔对放疗摆位误差没有明显影响,可尽量减少扫描范围。

多子阵合成孔径声呐6阶方位空变运动补偿快速算法

为解决6自由度运动误差存在情形下的多子阵合成孔径声呐快速运动补偿与成像问题,本文提出一种多子阵合成孔径声呐6阶方位空变运动补偿快速算法。在考虑6自由度运动误差随方位时间6阶空变特性的基础上,对双根号形式距离历程进行泰勒级数展开并保留至6阶项,进而推导得到严格解析的点目标响应二维谱,通过对传统四阶模型的距离多普勒算法进行改进,同时实现了6自由度运动误差的快速补偿和图像重建。仿真分析和实测数据成像结果表明了所提算法的有效性和高效率,可为大场景宽测绘带多子阵合成孔径声呐快速运动补偿和高分辨成像提供理论依据。

耦合多元混沌要素的非线性交叉预测误差模式对极端天气延伸期预测研究

本文首先分析随机误差、初始误差和模式参数误差对建立的单变量非线性交叉预测误差模式(Nonlinear Cross Prediction Error,NCPE)的极端天气延伸期预报敏感性,及不同气象要素场对延伸期预报的敏感性,再利用可降水、温度、位势高度资料建立多混沌变量耦合的模式(Multivariate NCPE,MNCPE),深入对比分析两种模式延伸期预报特征。结果表明:随机误差和初始误差的比率量级差异会影响NCPE模式的延伸期预报特征,存在临界值效应;而针对参数误差,合适的相空间维m能较好表征吸引子的局部细节。不同气象要素场对暴雨、台风等灾害天气延伸期预报的敏感性也表现不一。耦合多变量的MNCPE模式,相比单变量NCPE,能更完备表征混沌吸引子局部结构的动力特征,降低10~30 d延伸期预报的不确定性。

北斗系统GEO卫星伪距多路径误差改正

北斗系统地球静止轨道(GEO)卫星因相对于地面近似静止,其多路径误差相对于其他类型较为严重,且表现出系统波动现象。为提升定位精度,本文在GEO卫星伪距多路径误差特征研究的基础上,采用奇异谱分析方法对其进行修正,并通过伪距单点定位(SPP)验证伪距多路径误差修正效果。选取测站CUT0连续10d的静态观测数据进行修正试验。研究发现,GEO卫星伪距多路径误差序列表现出较强的天重复性,且多路径误差中的系统误差项越大,重复性也越强;在运用奇异谱分析方法修正GEO卫星伪距多路径误差各系统误差项后,多路径组合(MP)观测值和SPP的定位精度均有一定程度提升。

空间高速光通信基带调制信号产生与相位同步方法研究

高速调制基带信号的高质量产生与相位精确同步是实现空间光通信测距的关键技术。传统采用FPGA或数字信号处理器(DSP)与高速数模转换器(DAC)的实现方法,存在相位同步精度低、硬件实现复杂度高等缺点。该文提出一种高速光通信基带信号产生与相位同步方法,设计了相位闭环动态控制环路,通过实时调整高速信号发射时钟相位,可实现I,Q高速基带信号相位与外部参考时钟相位的确定性关系。实验结果表明:正交相移键控(QPSK)光调制信号码速率为5 Gbit/s时,相位同步精度小于2 ps,误差矢量幅度(EVM)小于8%;5 Gbit/s光通信速率误码率为10^(–7),接收灵敏度优于–47 dBm,测距精度优于2 mm。与传统方法相比,其灵敏度与测距精度均得到明显改善。