Numerical simulation of groundwater under complex karst conditions and the prediction of roadway gushing in a coal mine:a case study in the Guang'an Longtan Reservoir in Sichuan Province, China

Numerical simulation of groundwater in karst areas has long been restricted by the difficulty of generalizing the hydrogeological conditions of reservoirs and of determining the relevant parameters due to the anisotropy and discontinuity of the karst water-bearing media in these areas. In this study, we used the Guang'an Longtan Coal mine in Sichuan as an example, and generalized the complex hydrogeological conditions in the reservoir area. A finite element numerical flow model was used to simulate current and future scenarios of roadway gushing at the bottom of the coal mine at pile number 1 + 700 m. The results show that the roadway section corresponding to valleys has a gushing quantity of 4323.8–4551.25 m^3/d before impoundment. Modeled water inflow after impoundment increased to 1.6 times the water inflow before impoundment, which threatens the impoundment as well as the roadway's normal operation. Therefore, roadway processing measures are needed to guarantee the safety of the impoundment and of the mining operation.

Interaction between Topographic Conditions and Entrainment Rate in Numerical Simulations of Debris Flow

Debris flow simulations are useful for predicting the sediment supplied to watersheds from upstream areas. However, the topographic conditions upstream are more complicated than those downstream and the relationship between the topographic conditions and debris flow initiation is not well understood. This study compared the use of several entrainment rate equations in numerical simulations of debris flows to examine the effect of topographic conditions on the flow. One-dimensional numerical simulations were performed based on the shallow water equations and three entrainment rate equations were tested. These entrainment rate equations were based on the same idea that erosion and the deposition of debris flows occur via the difference between the equilibrium and current conditions of debris flows, while they differed in the expression of the concentration, channel angle, and sediment amount. The comparison was performed using a straight channel with various channel angles and a channel with a periodically undulating surface. The three entrainment rate equations gave different amounts of channel bed degradation and hydrographs for a straight channel with a channel angle greater than 21° when water was supplied from upstream at a steady rate. The difference was caused by the expression of the entrainment rate equations. For channels with little undulation, the numerical simulations gave results almost identical to those for straight channels with the same channel angle. However, for channels with large undulations, the hydrographs differed from those for straight channels with the same channel angle when the channel angle was less than 21°. Rapid erosion occurred and the hydrograph showed a significant peak, especially in cases using the entrainment equation expressed by channel angle. This was caused by the effects of the steep undulating sections, since the effect increased with the magnitude of the undulation, suggesting that a debris flow in an upstream area develops differently according to the topographic conditions. These results also inferred that numerical simulations of debris flow can differ depending on the spatial resolution of the simulation domain, as the resolution determines the reproducibility of the undulations.

Survival Analysis Using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression for Pile Bridge Piles Under Wet Service Conditions

This paper studies the deterioration of bridge substructures utilizing the Long-Term Bridge Performance(LTBP)Program InfoBridge^(TM)and develops a survival model using Cox proportional hazards regression.The survival anal­ysis is based on the National Bridge Inventory(NBI)dataset.The study calculates the survival rate of reinforced and prestressed concrete piles on bridges under marine conditions over a 29-year span(from 1992 to 2020).The state of Maryland is the primary focus of this study,with data from three neighboring regions,the District of Columbia,Vir­ginia,and Delaware to expand the sample size.The data obtained from the National Bridge Inventory are condensed and filtered to acquire the most relevant information for model development.The Cox proportional hazards regres­sion is applied to the condensed NBI data with six parameters:Age,ADT,ADTT,number of spans,span length,and structural length.Two survival models are generated for the bridge substructures:Reinforced and prestressed concrete piles in Maryland and reinforced and prestressed concrete piles in wet service conditions in the District of Columbia,Maryland,Delaware,and Virginia.Results from the Cox proportional hazards regression are used to construct Markov chains to demonstrate the sequence of the deterioration of bridge substructures.The Markov chains can be used as a tool to assist in the prediction and decision-making for repair,rehabilitation,and replacement of bridge piles.Based on the numerical model,the Pile Assessment Matrix Program(PAM)is developed to facilitate the assessment and main­tenance of current bridge structures.The program integrates the NBI database with the inspection and research reports from various states’department of transportation,to serve as a tool for condition state simulation based on mainte­nance or rehabilitation strategies.

Numerical simulation of hydrodynamic characteristics during the diversion closure in a horizontal tunnel

Based on water inrush accident of 1841 working face of Desheng Coal Mine in Wu'an, Hebei province, China, an evaluation model of hydrodynamic characteristics of the project is set up and simulated using Matlab. It is assumed that the pipe flow would transform into seepage flow when the aggregates are plugged into the water inrush channel and the seepage flow would disappear along with grouting process. The simulation results show that the flow velocity will increase with an increase in height of aggregates accumulation body during the aggregates filling process; the maximum seepage velocity occurs on the top of plugging zone; and the water flow decreases with increasing plugging height of water inrush channel. Finally, the field construction results show that the water inrush channel can be plugged effectively by the compacted body prepared with aggregate and cement slurry.

Probabilistic prediction of expected ground condition and construction time and costs in road tunnels

Ground condition and construction （excavation and support） time and costs are the key factors in decision-making during planning and design phases of a tunnel project. An innovative methodology for probabilistic estimation of ground condition and construction time and costs is proposed, which is an integration of the ground prediction approach based on Markov process, and the time and cost variance analysis based on Monte-Carlo （MC） simulation. The former provides the probabilistic description of ground classification along tunnel alignment according to the geological information revealed from geological profile and boreholes. The latter provides the probabilistic description of the expected construction time and costs for each operation according to the survey feedbacks from experts. Then an engineering application to Hamro tunnel is presented to demonstrate how the ground condition and the construction time and costs are estimated in a probabilistic way. In most items, in order to estimate the data needed for this methodology, a number of questionnaires are distributed among the tunneling experts and finally the mean values of the respondents are applied. These facilitate both the owners and the contractors to be aware of the risk that they should carry before construction, and are useful for both tendering and bidding.

The Effect of Simulated Transportation Conditions on the Chemical, Physical and Sensory Profiles of Mailler-Thurgau and Scheurebe Wines

The impact of different phases of shipment （at sea and at port） on two German white wines of two vintages and the lasting effects of the temperature regimes over time was investigated. The wines were subjected to three temperature programs--control （15 ℃）, linear increase （15℃ steadily increasing to 45 ℃）, and diurnal fluctuation （15 ℃/40 ℃）--in both movement and non-movement conditions. The wines were analyzed for chemical, physical and sensorial changes at one and eight months post-treatment. Changes in temperature and pressure were recorded within the bottles, which correlated with the temperature programs： ＋0.04 bar/℃ in the linear increase program and ＋0.08 bar/℃ in the diurnal fluctuation program. The oxygen levels in the headspace and in the wine were monitored during all of the treatments. The oxygen development in the bottles was similar between the diurnal and linear programs, and was found to be distinctive from the control program. The chemical analysis revealed that there were significant differences related to the experimental treatments of the wines for the following parameters： tartaric acid, free sulfur dioxide, total sulfur dioxide and percent cork weight loss measurements. Difference sensory testing found very few differences. After eight months storage, significant differences were found in the Diurnal Non-movement treatment compared to Linear Non-movement and control treatments, as well as Diurnal Movement and Control treatments for the 2014 Miiller-Thurgau wine. Sensory descriptive analysis of the wines found that the wines could be differentiated by variety, but could not be distinguished according to experimental treatment after one month storage. These results indicate that wines of these types are more robust to shipping conditions than previously found.

Design and laboratory evaluation of fog-sealed chip seal on epoxy asphalt pavement for steel bridge deck

In order to improve the surface performace of epoxy asphalt pavement （EAP） for steel bridge deck, an epoxy asphalt chip seal （ ECS） covered by a cationic emulsified asphalt fog seal （i. e., fog-sealed chip seal） isproposed and a laboratory study is conducted to design and evaluate te fog-sealed chip seal. First, the evaluation indices and methods of te chip seal on steel bridge deck pavement were proposed. Secondly, the worst pavement conditions during te maintenance time were simulated by te small traffic load simulation system MMLS3 and the short-term aging test for minimizing the failure probability of chip seal. Finally, the design parameters of fog-sealed chip seal were determined by the experimental analysis and the performance of the designed fog-sealed chip seal was evaluated in thelaboratory. Results indicate that the proposed simulation method of pavement conditions is effective and the maximal load repetitions on the EAPslab specimen are approximately 925 300 times. Moreover, the designed fog-sealedchip sealcan provide a dense surface with sufficient skid resistance,aggregate-asphalt aahesive performance and interlayer shearing resistance.

Prediction of Interbeds Intercalated into Complex Heterogeneous Reservoirs at a High Water Cut Stage

The occurrence of interbeds in thick oil formations is one of the main reasons that cause the difference of remaining oil distribution. A quantitative method for predicting interbeds was proposed and the sedimentary origin and division criterion were demonstrated. The distribution of interbeds in different types of sedimentary sand bodies were predicted and analyzed by combining the theory of sedimentology and reservoir bed architectural-element analysis. The interbeds in a single well were recognized from high resolution well logs, and inter-well interbeds were predicted by using the methods of cyclothem correlation, physical properties trtmcation, and conditional simulation. Finally a 3-D model of interbed was built. Application to the Gudao Oilfield was successful.

A new generic open pit mine planning process with risk assessment ability

Conventionally, mining industry relies on a deterministic view, where a unique mine plan is determined based on a single resource model. A major shortfall of this approach is the inability to assess the risk caused by the well-known geological uncertainty, i.e. the in situ grade and tonnage variability of the mineral deposit. Despite some recent attempts in developing stochastic mine planning models which have demonstrated promising results, the industry still remains sceptical about this innovative idea. With respect to unbiased linear estimation, kriging is the most popular and reliable deterministic interpolation technique for resource estimation and it appears to remain its popularity in the near future. This paper presents a new systematic framework to quantify the risk of kriging-based mining projects due to the geological uncertainties. Firstly, conditional simulation is implemented to generate a series of equally-probable orebody realisations and these realisations are then compared with the kriged resource model to analyse its geological uncertainty. Secondly, a production schedule over the life of mine is determined based on the kriged resource model. Finally, risk profiles of that production schedule, namely ore and waste tonnage production, blending grade and Net Present Value （NPV）, are constructed using the orebody realisations. The proposed model was applied on a multi-element deposit and the result demonstrates that that the kriging-based mine plan is unlikely to meet the production targets. Especially, the kriging-based mine plan overestimated the expected NPV at a magnitude of 6.70% to 7.34% （135 M$ to 151 M$）. A new multivariate conditional simulation framework was also introduced in this paper to cope with the multivariate nature of the deposit. Although an iron ore deposit is used to prove the concepts, the method can easily be adapted to other kinds of mineral deposits, including surface coal mine.

A linear programming model for long-term mine planning in the presence of grade uncertainty and a stockpile

The complexity of an open pit production scheduling problem is increased by grade uncertainty. A method is presented to calculate the cost of uncertainty in a production schedule based on deviations from the target production. A mixed integer linear programming algorithm is formulated to find the min- ing sequence of blocks from a predefined pit shell and their respective destinations, with two objectives： to maximize the net present value of the operation and to minimize the cost of uncertainty. An efficient clustering technique reduces the number of var/ables to make the problem tractable. Also, the parameters that control the importance of uncertainty in the optimization problem are studied. The minimum annual mining capacity in presence of grade uncertainty is assessed. The method is illustrated with an oil sand deposit in northern Alberta.

Computational fluid dynamics simulation of friction stir welding:A comparative study on different frictional boundary conditions

Numerical simulation based on computational fluid dynamics （CFD） is a useful approach for quantitatively investigating the underlying thermal-mechanical conditions during FSW, such as temperature field and material deformation field. One of the critical issues in CFD simulation of FSW is the use of the frictional boundary condition, which represents the friction between the welding tool and the workpiece in the numerical models. In this study, three-dimensional numerical simulation is conducted to analyze the heat transfer and plastic deformation behaviors during the FSW of AA2024. For comparison purposes, both the boundary velocity （BV） models and the boundary shear stress （BSS） models are employed in order to assess their performances in predicting the temperature and material deformation in FSW. It is interesting to note that different boundary conditions yield similar predictions on temperature, but quite different predictions on material deformation. The numerical predictions are compared with the experimental results. The predicted deformation zone geometry by the BSS model is consistent with the experimental results while there is large difference between the predictions by the BV models and the experimental measurements. The fact that the BSS model yields more reasonable predictions on the deformation zone geometry is attributed to its capacity to automatically adjust the contact state at the tool/workpiece interface. Based on the favorable predictions on both the temperature field and the material deformation field, the BSS model is suggested to have a better performance in numerical simulation of FSW than the BV model.

Quantitative Integration of High-Resolution Hydrogeophysical Data: A Novel Approach to Monte-Carlo-Type Conditional Stochastic Simulations and Implications for Hydrological Predictions

Geophysical techniques can help to bridge the inherent gap that exists with regard to spatial resolution and coverage for classical hydrological methods. This has led to the emergence of a new and rapidly growing research domain generally referred to as hydrogeophysics. Given the differing sensitivities of various geophysical techniques to hydrologically relevant parameters, their inherent trade-off between resolution and range, as well as the notoriously site-specific nature of petrophysical parameter relations, the fundamental usefulness of multi-method surveys for reducing uncertainties in data analysis and interpretation is widely accepted. A major challenge arising from such endeavors is the quantitative integration of the resulting vast and diverse database into a unified model of the probed subsurface region that is consistent with all available measurements. To this end, we present a novel approach toward hydrogeophysical data integration based on a Monte-Carlo-type conditional stochastic simulation method that we consider to be particularly suitable for high-resolution local-scale studies. Monte Carlo techniques are flexible and versatile, allowing for accounting for a wide variety of data and constraints of differing resolution and hardness, and thus have the potential of providing, in a geostatistical sense, realistic models of the pertinent target parameter distributions. Compared to more conventional approaches, such as co-kriging or cluster analysis, our approach provides significant ad- vancements in the way that larger-scale structural information eontained in the hydrogeophysieal data can be accounted for. After outlining the methodological background of our algorithm, we present the results of its application to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the detailed local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on pertinent synthetic data and then applied to a field dataset collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. Finally, we compare the performance of our data integration approach to that of more conventional methods with regard to the prediction of flow and transport phenomena in highly heterogeneous media and discuss the implications arising.

EVALUATION OF THE GEOLOGICAL RELIABILITY OF SURFACE MINING DEPOSIT

The optimal deeision theory and exploitation reliability of large scale mining area have been studied China since the late 1980’s. Researches have been earried out under the thought of mannature - machine system , and eneouraging results have been obtained. The reliability evaluation of mining engineering ineludes the rellability exaluation of natural resources, mining technology and mine economics ete. And the geological reliability of deposit, as a natural condition, is the basis of all other evaiuation works. The paper summarizes the method for evaluating the geological reliaoility of deposit, diseusces the reliability of estimating methods for coal reserves and coai quality, evaiuates the natural resourees rellability of the Pit 1 of Antaibao Surface Coai Mine, Pingsuo, Shanxi Province.which was taken as a case study.

Conditional Simulation of Flow in Heterogeneous Porous Media with the Probabilistic Collocation Method

A stochastic approach to conditional simulation of flow in randomly heterogeneous media is proposed with the combination of the Karhunen-Loeve expansion and the probabilistic collocation method(PCM).The conditional log hydraulic conductivity field is represented with the Karhunen-Loeve expansion,in terms of some deterministic functions and a set of independent Gaussian random variables.The propagation of uncertainty in the flow simulations is carried out through the PCM,which relies on the efficient polynomial chaos expansion used to represent the flow responses such as the hydraulic head.With the PCM,existing flow simulators can be employed for uncertainty quantification of flow in heterogeneous porous media when direct measurements of hydraulic conductivity are taken into consideration.With illustration of several numerical examples of groundwater flow,this study reveals that the proposed approach is able to accurately quantify uncertainty of the flow responses conditioning on hydraulic conductivity data,while the computational efforts are significantly reduced in comparison to the Monte Carlo simulations.

EXPERIMENTS ON ASSIMILATION OF INITIAL VALUES IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A WARM-SECTOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA

In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of conventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of radar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that occurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilating conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3) the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future.

A study of parameter uncertainties causing uncertainties in modeling a grassland ecosystem using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method

In this paper, we apply the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to the parameter(CNOP-P)to study parameter uncertainties that lead to the stability(maintenance or degradation) of a grassland ecosystem. The maintenance of the grassland ecosystem refers to the unchanged or increased quantity of living biomass and wilted biomass in the ecosystem,and the degradation of the grassland ecosystem refers to the reduction in the quantity of living biomass and wilted biomass or its transformation into a desert ecosystem. Based on a theoretical five-variable grassland ecosystem model, 32 physical model parameters are selected for numerical experiments. Two types of parameter uncertainties could be obtained. The first type of parameter uncertainty is the linear combination of each parameter uncertainty that is computed using the CNOP-P method. The second type is the parameter uncertainty from multi-parameter optimization using the CNOP-P method. The results show that for the 32 model parameters, at a given optimization time and with greater parameter uncertainty, the patterns of the two types of parameter uncertainties are different. The different patterns represent physical processes of soil wetness. This implies that the variations in soil wetness(surface layer and root zone) are the primary reasons for uncertainty in the maintenance or degradation of grassland ecosystems, especially for the soil moisture of the surface layer. The above results show that the CNOP-P method is a useful tool for discussing the abovementioned problems.

Reactive mesoporous silica nanoparticles loaded with limonene for improving physical and mental health of mice at simulated microgravity condition

Astronauts are under high stress for a long time because of the microgravity condition,which leads to anxiety,affects their learning and memory abilities,and seriously impairs the health of astronauts.Aromatherapy can improve the physical and mental health of astronauts in a way that moisturizes them softly and silently.However,the strong volatility of fragrances and inconvenience of aroma treatment greatly limit their application in the field of spaceflight.In this study,reactive mesoporous silica nanoparticles were prepared to encapsulate and slowly release limonene.The limonene loaded nanoparticles were named limonene@mesoporous silica nanoparticles-cyanuric chloride(LE@MSNs-CYC).LE@MSNs-CYC were then applied to wallpaper to improve the convenience of aromatherapy.LE@MSNs-CYC could chemically react with the wallpaper,thus firmly adsorbed on the wallpaper.In the following,the mice were treated with hindlimb unloading(HU)to simulate a microgravity environment.The results showed that 28-day HU led to an increase in the level of anxiety and declines in learning,memory,and physical health in mice.LE@MSNs-CYC showed significant relief effects on anxiety,learning,memory,and physical health of HU treated mice.Subsequently,the molecular mechanisms were explored by hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis related hormones,immune-related cytokines,learning,and memory-related neurotransmitters and proteins.

Development of milk powder containing Lactobacillus plantarum NCIMB 8826 immobilized with prebiotic hi-maize starch and survival under simulated gastric and intestinal conditions

The objectives of this study were to develop a probiotic milk powder containing Lactobacillus plantarum NCIMB 8826 immobilized with prebiotic Hi-maize starch and to analyze cell viability after spray drying and exposure to simulated gastric and intestinal conditions.Milk powders containing free L.plantarum and cells immobilized with Hi-maize starch were assessed.Powders were evaluated during storage at 4°C for 15 days.After spray drying,at 0 and 15 days of storage both treatments had over 8 log CFU/g of viable cells and there were higher viable counts found for immobilized cells compared to free cells after 120 min in simulated gastric fluid.At 15 days of storage,immobilized cells had higher viable counts than free cells after exposure to simulated intestinal fluid for 120 min.The combined probiotic and prebiotic milk powder had stable viable cell counts at refrigerated storage conditions and under simulated gastric and intestinal transit.

Potential of roots and shoots of Napier grass for arresting soil erosion and runoff of mollisols soils of Himalayas

In this study, a soil filled Hydraulic Tilting Flume (HTF) was used as a test plot under simulated rainfallconditions. This flume was flled with mollisols soils (sandy loam in texture) collected from tarai regionof Himalayas. The effects of root and shoot characteristics of Napier grass in terms of leaf area index (LAI),shoot length (SL), number of leaves (NL), number of tillers (NT), shoot biomass (SB), root density (RD),root length (RL), root biomass (RB), and total biomass (TB) were investigated on runoff and sedimentoutflow at 90, 120 and 150 days after planting (DAP). Four simulated rainfall intensities namely 4.0, 6.5,8.3 and 9.4 cm/h over three land slopes of 1, 2 and 3% were selected. Runoff samples collected fromwhole plant plot and only root plot were analyzed for runoff and sediment outflow. Findings revealedthat Napier grasses were very effective to reduce runoff and sediment outflow and its efficacy increasedwith the extended growth stages. The reduction in runoff and sediment outflow at 90, 120 and 150 DAPwas obtained as 56% and 85%, 68% and 90%, and 74% and 96%, respectively, as compared to bare plotconditions. It was observed that the comparative contribution of shoots in runoff rate reduction washigher than the roots. On the contrary, the root part of the plant showed more contribution in sedimentrate reduction as compared to the shoot part. Step wise regression was attempted for the selection ofeffective input parameters to establish authentic runoff and sediment outflow models. Power form ofmultiple non-linear regression (MNLR) showed very satisfactory results for predicting runoff and sedimentoutflow with coefficient of determination (R^(2)) as 97.4% and 99.0%, respectively, root mean squareerror (RMSE) as 38.8 cc/m^(2)/min and 0.126 g/m^(2)/min, respectively, and coefficient of efficiency (CE) as93.9% and 96.7%, respectively, during testing period.