Optimized Reimbursement Scheme of China's New Cooperative Medical System Using Monte Carlo Simulation

China＇s Rural Cooperative Medical System collapsed alongside communal farming at the end of the Maoist period in 1976, leaving most farmers vulnerable[1]. In rural areas, where 80% of people have been without health insurance of any kind, illness has emerged as a leading cause of poverty[24]. To address the poor state of health care among the rural population, in 2003 the Chinese government launched the New Rural Cooperative Medical System （NCMS）,

Asymptotically Optimal Simulation Budget Allocation under Fixed Confidence Level by Ordinal Optimization

Ordinal optimization concentrates on isolating a subset of good designs with high probability and reduces the required simulation time dramatically for discrete event simulation. To obtain the same probability level,we may optimally allocate our computing budget among different designs,instead of equally simulating all different designs. In this paper we present an effective approach to optimally allocate computing budget for discrete-event system simulation. While ordinal optimization can dramatically reduce the computation cost, our approach can further reduce the already-low cost.

Optimization of stratification scheme for a fishery-independent survey with multiple objectives

Fishery-independent surveys are often used for collecting high quality biological and ecological data to support fisheries management. A careful optimization of fishery-independent survey design is necessary to improve the precision of survey estimates with cost-effective sampling efforts. We developed a simulation approach to evaluate and optimize the stratification scheme for a fishery-independent survey with multiple goals including estimation of abundance indices of individual species and species diversity indices. We compared the performances of the sampling designs with different stratification schemes for different goals over different months. Gains in precision of survey estimates from the stratification schemes were acquired compared to simple random sampling design for most indices. The stratification scheme with five strata performed the best. This study showed that the loss of precision of survey estimates due to the reduction of sampling efforts could be compensated by improved stratification schemes, which would reduce the cost and negative impacts of survey trawling on those species with low abundance in the fishery-independent survey. This study also suggests that optimization of a survey design differed with different survey objectives. A post-survey analysis can improve the stratification scheme of fishery-independent survey designs.

Modeling and Optimization of Ethane Steam Cracking Process in An Industrial Tubular Reactor with Improved Reaction Scheme

Ethane steam cracking process in an industrial reactor was investigated.An one-demsional(1D)steady-state model was developed firstly by using an improved molecular reaction scheme and was then simulated in Aspen Plus.A comparison of model results with industrial data and previously reported results showed that the model can predict the process kinetics more accurately.In addition,the validated model was used to study the effects of different process variables,including coil outlet temperature(COT),steam-to-ethane ratio and residence time on ethane conversion,ethylene selectivity,products yields,and coking rate.Finally,steady-state optimization was conducted to the operation of industrial reactor.The COT and steam-to-ethane ratio were taken as decision variables to maximize the annual operational profit.

Uncertainty in Dust Budget over East Asia Simulated by WRF/Chem with Six Different Dust Emission Schemes

In this study, the dependence of dust budgets on dust emission schemes is investigated through the simulation of dust storm events, which occurred during 14–25 March 2002, over East Asia, by the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry(WRF/Chem) model coupled with six dust emission schemes. Generally, this model can reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of surface dust concentration; however, the simulated total dust budget differs significantly with different emission schemes. Moreover, uncertainties in the simulated dust budget vary among regions. It is suggested that the dust emission scheme affects the regional dust budget directly through its impact on the total emitted dust amount; however, the inflow and outflow of dust aerosols simulated by different schemes within a region also depend on the geographical location of the dust emission region. Furthermore, the size distribution of dust particles for a specific dust emission scheme has proven to be important for dust budget calculation due to the dependence of dust deposition amount on dust size distribution.

Effects of fluid flow rate and viscosity on gravel-pack plugging and the optimization of sand-control wells production

Series of experiments were performed to simulate the invasion of formation sand into and the plugging process of gravel-pack at different viscosities and flowing rates of fluid.Two types of formation sands with the medium size of 0.10 mm and 0.16 mm and the quartz sand and ceramsite of 0.6-1.2 mm were used in the experiments.A new viscosity-velocity index(the product of fluid viscosity and velocity)was put forward to characterize the influencing mechanism and law of physical property and flow condition of formation fluid on gravel-pack plugging,and a new method to optimize the production rate of wells controlling sand production with gravel-packing was proposed.The results show that the permeability of formation sand invaded zone and final permeability of plugged gravel-pack have negative correlations with viscosity and flow velocity of fluid,the higher the flow velocity and viscosity,the lower the permeability of formation sand invaded zone and final permeability of plugged gravel-pack will be.The flow velocity and viscosity of fluid are key factors affecting plugging degree of the gravel zone.The viscosity-velocity index(v-v index)can reflect the flow characteristics of fluid very well and make it easier to analyze the plugging mechanism of gravel zone.For different combinations of fluid viscosity and flow velocity,if the v-v index is the same or close,their impact on the final gravel permeability would be the same or close.With the increase of the v-v index,the permeability of plugged gravel zone decreases first,then the reduction rate slows down till the permeability stabilizes.By optimizing production and increasing production step by step,the optimal working scheme for sand-control well can reduce the damage to gravel-pack zone permeability caused by sand-carrying fluid effectively,and increase well productivity and extend the sand control life.

Simulation Optimization： A Review on Theory and Applications

模拟优化是在复杂真实系统的分析和优化的一个很强大的工具。在这份报纸，模拟优化的教程介绍和评论被给。模拟优化问题根据决定变量的内在的结构被分类(分离或连续) 。并且为模拟优化的一些重要技术详细被讨论包括他们的原则，实现过程，优点和劣势，并且应用。未来研究方向也在这篇论文被提供。

Highway Concrete Guardrail Lifting Scheme and Safety Performance Verification

In order to achieve the old fence of reuse, improve the safety performance of guardrail, barrier structure does not meet the requirements, make full use of the old concrete guardrail on the basis of heightening, through computer simulation experiment were analyzed, and optimization design, through the real car collision test, make the concrete guardrail after heightening structure satisfies the requirement of the safety performance of current specification. The results show that the protective performance of the two guardrail schemes meets the requirements of the current guardrail evaluation standards through the computer simulation experiment. Through the optimized design of scheme 1, the actual car crash test proves that the enhanced structure of Minhua TYPE II concrete guardrail can meet the requirements of safety performance evaluation. The research results provide an important basis for the transformation of the guardrail and the revision of the current design of expressway in China.

Study on joint optimization operation scheme forPangduo reservoir and Zhikong reservoir

The cascade hydropower system composed of Pangduo reservoir and Zhikong reservoir are formed on the middlereach of the main Lasahe river. For giving full play of joint compensation effect of the two reservoirs, the paper studied the joint operationscheme for Pangduo reservoir and Zhikong reservoir. Based on the respective operation scheme, a reservoir group joint operationmodel is built, the model is solved by the simulation- optimization method, and then the practical and operational scheme isachieved. The scheme could give full play of the joint regulation and storage effect of the reservoir group and improve effectivelythe utilization factor of hydropower resources.

胜利油田低渗透油藏压驱工程方案优化及矿场应用

为解决低渗透油藏压驱过程中存在的油井见效方向明显、压力下降快、含水上升快等开发难题,基于低渗透油藏压驱地质特征,抽提压驱开发工程问题,建立耦合渗流-应力-损伤(H-M-D)的低渗储层压驱数学模型,开展“压-闷-采”一体化压驱数值模拟,建立压驱工程参数优化图版。结果表明:以3 a累计经济净现值为目标,优化单层压驱注入量为3.0×10^(4)~3.5×10^(4)m^(3),压驱注入速度为1000~1200 m^(3)/d,闷井时间为20~30 d,驱油剂体积分数为0.15%~0.20%;优化后的低渗透油藏目标方案区BN1区块压驱缝网长度、宽度及高度较未优化的相邻BN0区块分别提高19.4%、27.3%、11.3%;与未优化的相邻BN2区块相比,BN1区块井口油压相当,日产液量降低42.4%,日产油量增加163.6%,含水率降低62.3%。研究成果能有效指导低渗透油藏压驱工程方案优化与现场实施。

嵌入式冰箱压缩机仓散热优化研究

针对嵌入式冰箱压缩机仓散热效果不佳的问题,采用数值模拟与试验结合的方法对其散热进行研究。模拟了嵌入式冰箱压缩机仓的散热过程,结果显示冰箱背部气流未经过充分散热再次进入到压缩机仓形成短路气流,且由于橱柜的影响进入压缩机仓内的总气流相较于自由状态下减少了51.78%;针对散热效果差的原因提出了3种不同适用场景的优化方案,并对各方案在通风量、能耗、制冷性能方面进行对比研究。结果表明,3种优化方案均能改善散热效果,但各有优劣,优化方案的总风量比原嵌入方案分别提高了3.9%,75.3%,55.3%;在32℃和16℃的环境温度下,3种优化方案的能耗相较于原嵌入方案分别降低了6.50%和3.90%,23.03%和25.07%,17.70%和17.50%。研究结果为不同适用场景下的嵌入式冰箱压缩机仓散热优化提供了解决思路和参考。

多跨连续刚构桥合龙顶推方案优化

为了能更好地减少多跨连续刚构桥成桥后期各个桥墩墩顶的纵桥向水平位移和结构附加内力,提出由中到边合龙依次顶推的优化方案,作出了相应的计算图示且推导了相关的理论计算公式,同时根据顶推力理论计算公式的需要,推导了变截面的主梁和桥墩的抗弯惯性矩的理论计算公式,以某六跨连续刚构桥为例,建立有限元模型,通过理论计算公式和有限元模型分别计算了优化方案的顶推力数值并进行了对比分析,验证合龙优化方案顶推力理论计算公式的有效性,然后将由边到中的原合龙顶推方案和先中后边的优化合龙顶推方案作对比,验证合龙优化方案的合理性。结果表明:相较于原方案,使用优化方案虽然增加了顶推次数,但是其每次顶推力的数值较原方案中一次顶推力的数值都有大幅减少,从而能够有效地减少顶推处的局部应力水平;优化方案能更好地调控各个墩的变形,尤其是距离主梁中点较远的桥墩,因此优化方案对墩顶的纵向水平位移和墩底的弯矩改善效果更加明显;优化方案理论计算公式计算得到的顶推力数值相比于使用有限元模型推算的顶推力数值偏大,但总的来说相差不大,满足实际工程的要求;不同的顶推方案主要的影响是桥墩的变形与内力,顶推施工对成桥后主梁的收缩徐变以及线形的影响不大。

既有地铁线非站站停列车开行方案与越行站设置协同优化研究

研究既有地铁非站站停列车开行方案和越行站设置协同优化对提高线路通过能力和运输效率具有重要意义。将非站站停列车开行方案编制与越行站设置协同考虑,出行乘客以出行OD分类,构建以企业运营成本、乘客出行成本以及列车越行成本最低为目标的既有地铁线非站站停列车开行方案优化模型,考虑线路通过能力及快车停靠等约束,依据模型特点选用遗传模拟退火算法进行模型求解。以西安地铁14号线为例验证构建模型有效性,求解结果表明:与传统的站站停运营组织模式相比,乘客总在车时间降低29.84%,企业运营成本降低4.33%,车底购置成本降低5.23%,同时讨论不同越行站位置选择对企业运营成本的影响,为轨道公司实施非站站停运营组织模式及相关车站改造提供决策支撑。

下肢外骨骼柔性踝关节设计及助力研究

针对市面上的外骨骼产品普遍存在柔顺性欠佳、能耗高等问题,提出了一种由气弹簧被动助力的柔性踝关节方案。为研究气弹簧对关节力矩以及系统能耗的改善效果,根据踝关节在步态中的不同阶段,建立了气弹簧的力学模型,并通过ADAMS进行动力学仿真验证,选取了弹簧的最优参数。仿真结果表明,气弹簧在最优参数下能有效减小各关节所受的冲击力矩,降低主动关节驱动电动机的能耗,在一定程度上改善了外骨骼的动态性能。

船体大开口平直空腔结构总段吊装加强方案优化

为增强船体大开口平直空腔结构总段结构强度,结合船体总段结构特点、吊码布置情况和吊装加强方案建立有限元模型,采用数值仿真模拟总段吊装,分析甲板与吊码区域的结构变形。根据预报结果对吊装加强方案进行优化,可为后续类似结构的吊装加强方案优化提供一定指导。

Y油田低渗透油藏高含水阶段提高采收率研究

低渗透砂岩油藏储量丰富,约占全国储量的2/3以上,开发潜力巨大。该类油藏具有孔渗条件差、储层非均质性强、吸水能力差等特点,开发后期油藏进入高含水阶段,存在水驱效果差、开发难度大、采收率较低等问题,因此亟需探究提高采收率的有效手段。以Y油田低渗透油藏为例,在地质模型和精细油藏描述的基础上,通过生产动态分析和剩余油表征,针对全区水驱储量控制程度低、油井含水高、注采井网不完善的问题,提出了精细注水、注气和水气交替等措施。通过数值模拟方法,对比不同措施的开发效果,优选最佳方案,预测实施调整方案15年后,全区采收率提高12%。该研究成果可为低渗透砂岩油藏高含水期的高效开发提供参考依据和借鉴。

基于VISSIM仿真的城市信号交叉口优化设计

信号交叉口是限制车流消散的主要瓶颈,是导致城市道路交通拥堵的主要节点,对其优化设计逐渐成为研究热点。针对南京市中央路-湖南路交叉口存在的转弯半径过小、交通流量饱和、路口间距过短等问题,提出渠化车道、增加禁止掉头标志、增加相邻路口右转信号控制、增加相邻路口相位的优化方案,运用韦伯斯特模型计算各相位的信号配时方案,使用VISSIM仿真软件对设计方案实施前后的效果进行对比。结果表明:实施优化方案后,平均排队长度由12.96 m减少为11.3 m,减少12.81%;车辆平均延误由44.36 s减少到39.48 s,减少11%;平均停车次数由1.15次减少到0.96次,减少16.52%。对南京市中央路-湖南路交叉口提出的优化方案是合理的、有效的,研究结果对方案落地实施具有指导作用。

软土地区超深基坑设计优化分析

天津一中心医院新址基坑工程位于天津西青软土区,具有超大、超深的特点.开挖后由于工期因素,需要对原支护方案进行优化调整,采用启明星软件和Plaxis 2D有限元模拟对优化前后的典型剖面进行对比,并将开挖实测数据与模拟值进行综合对比分析.结果表明:在支护桩已经完成的条件下,优化后方案技术可行,安全可靠,支护桩的弯矩和截面变化处于合理范围内.同时,在北侧和西南角设立两座出土栈桥,有利于提高开挖效率,缩短工期,降低成本,部分区域支护桩最大侧向水平位移地表沉降值比原方案有所增加,变形依旧控制在合理范围内,可对类似的超大深基坑工程方案优化提供借鉴.

渤海湾盆地干热岩开发利用前景评估——基于开采优化数值模拟的认识

渤海湾盆地的大地热流高,5000 m埋深地层平均温度为175℃,热储岩性以低孔低渗的变质岩、火成岩为主,具备形成干热岩资源的条件。基于大地热流、岩石热导率、生热率等热参数,利用COMSOL软件建立三维水热耦合的干热岩开采模型、分析不同井间距、注采速率、布井方式等差异开采方案下在100 a内对热储层温度的影响随开发时间的变化,选取最优方案并估算干热岩资源。结果表明:注采速率一定时,随着开采时间的增加,开采井水温度下降速率与井间距成反比;当注采井间距一定时,注采速率越大,开采井水温度下降越快,发生“热突破”的时间越早;其他条件相同的情况下,“两采两注”布井方案比“一采一注”布井方案获得的热量更多,开采效率更高。基于上述认识,确定研究区最优开采方案为:年限50 a、井间距400 m、注采量90 m^(3)/h、“两采两注”方式。此方案下,可获得开采井水平均温度为172℃,对应全渤海湾盆地可采资源量为3.28×10^(19)J/a。以河北任丘市为例,按照民用住宅热负荷指标100 W/m^(2)计算,利用最优方案进行干热岩的开采,仅需157.75 km^(2)干热岩有利区即可满足全市居民供暖需求。因此,开发利用研究区干热岩资源,可增强华北地区能源供应保障能力,打造可持续发展的绿色低碳能源体系。

基于正交试验的盾构掘进江底变形分析与施工方案优化

盾构隧道的施工易引发开挖面上层土体松动塌陷,造成邻近建筑物沉降破坏。针对盾构隧道施工地层变形的问题,依托南京建宁西路过江通道工程,建立有限元模型模拟盾构隧道开挖过程,探究盾构掘进对河床沉降、深层土体水平及竖向位移等影响。以河床表面最大沉降、沉降影响范围、拱顶竖向位移、隧底隆起为指标,支护应力比、埋径比、盾尾注浆压力、泥浆相对密度等为影响因素安排L16(45)正交试验,分析各个影响因素的显著性及主次顺序,结果表明支护应力比和泥浆相对密度对各项指标影响程度较小,可采取最经济水平。由此得到最优水平组合为A_(4)B_(1)C_(4)D_(3)和A_(4)B_(2)C_(4)D_(3),并设计优化追加试验,追加试验方案1减小了埋径比,增加了盾尾注浆压力,结果表明其对地层变形的控制效果更好,为优选方案。