Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River Delta(YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes(LUCC), impacting ecosystem services(ES) and ecological security patterns(ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES and ESP in the YRD is crucial for ecological security and sustainable development. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate 2030 land use scenarios, including natural development(NDS), economic development(EDS), and ecological protection scenarios(EPS). Subsequently, the InVEST model and circuit theory were applied to assess ES and ESP under varying LUCC scenarios from 2010 to 2030. Findings indicate:(1) Notable LUCC from 2010 to 2030, marked by decreasing cropland and increasing construction land and water bodies.(2) From 2010 to 2020, improvements were observed in carbon storage,water yield, soil retention, and habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases in water yield and soil retention but declines in habitat quality and carbon storage. Among the scenarios, EPS showed superior performance in all four ES.(3) Between 2010 and 2030, ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints expanded, displaying significant spatial heterogeneity. The EPS scenario yielded the most substantial increases in ecological sources,corridors, and pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km^(2), 645.03 km^(2),and 64.43 km^(2), respectively. This study highlights the importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance for the YRD's sustainable development.

Considering Regional Connectivity and Policy Factors in the Simulation of Land Use Change in New Areas:A Case Study of Nansha New District,China

Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas.In this context,the present study utilizes a cellular automata(CA)model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou,China.Three scenarios are examined,emphasizing conventional locational factors,policy considerations,and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities.The results reveal several key findings:(1)Between 2015 and 2021,Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes,with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land,water area,and construction land.(2)The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy,indicating that Nansha New District,as an emerging area,is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities.(3)Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030,based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy,suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas,alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.

Simulation and Analysis of Land System Structure Changes in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain Area

The dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain between 1988 and 2000 were researched in this paper. Spatial dominance econometric model was estabilished on 1 km cell to quantificafionally analyze the driving-force for the dynamic change mechanism of land system, such as natural, social and economic factors. The future dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain on each 1 km cell during 2000 to 2020 were stimulated by combining the dynamic changes of land system on each 1 km cell with different situations. The research indicated that the dynamic changes of land system structure changed mainly from the cultivated areas to building areas and industrial areas, and forest areas increased during this period. Although the revolutions of land system structure were different during 2000 to 2020 with the different referrence standard, ecological protection and economic development, the primary dynamic changes of land system structure were that the increase of building land areas with the decline cuhivaled land areas and the increase of woodlands.

Spatial Pattern Change Simulation of Land Use in Yongchuan District of Chongqing City

In order to study the county scale land use structure during the rapid urbanization and more accurately grasp the dynamic process of land use and cover change,we combine GIS technology with CLUE-S model to research the spatial pattern change of land use in Yongchuan District of Chongqing City. The results show that the forest and farmland were main land use types going through changes in Yongchuan District during 2000-2010,accounting for more than 90% of the total area in each year; during 2000- 2010,the urban area was significantly increased,an increase of 16. 11%,and the urban area during 2005- 2010 was changed more dramatically than during 2000- 2005; forest area was slightly increased and farmland area was reduced by 1660 ha in 10 years. We set three scenarios on land use change in Yongchuan District for simulation and compare the predicted results. It can be concluded that driven by rapid urbanization,the change in land use landscape pattern in Yongchuan District is mainly focused on forest and farmland,the urban area is substantially increased,and the forest area also shows an increasing trend while the farmland area is reduced accordingly. Under ecological protection scenarios,the land use type having a protective effect on the ecological environment achieves better control effect.

Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Quantitative Simulation of Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land in Areas of Reclamation and Returning Cultivated Land to Forest or Pastures under RCPs Climate Scenarios

Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.

Land use scenario simulation of mountainous districts based on Dinamica EGO model

Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.

AN INSIGHT ON DRIVERS OF LAND USE CHANGE AT REGIONAL SCALE

The studies of driving forces of regional land use change (LUC) are to reveal the real motivation behind the LUC and its interacting mechanism, so as to simulate and predict the process of LUC. Presently, studies rooting from different natural and socio-economic backgrounds and from different scales have deepened the people’s understanding and cognition to driving forces of regional LUC. Biophysical driving forces are relatively stable, and have the cumulating effects. Human driving forces are relatively active, and are main driving forces of short-term regional LUC. Existing regional LUC models can answer the three main problems: which contribution (why), which location (where) and what rate (when). But, regional land use system is defined as the self-organized system, usually affected by the cri- tical value area and sudden change, and controlled by different stages. To reduce the impact of critical threshold and break on land use system, the studies of LUC driving forces will aim at following priority areas: data linkage between remote sensing and no-remote sensing data; underlying driving force identification; driving factor quantification; driving factor scale dependence; and driving process integration simulation.

Evaluating the impacts of land use and land cover changes on surface air temperature using the WRF-mosaic approach

Satellite-derived land surface data in 1980 and 2010 were used to represent land use and land cover（LULC） changes caused by the rapid economic development and human activities that have occurred over the past few decades in East Asia and China. The effects of LULC changes on the radiation budget and 2-m surface air temperature（SAT） were explored for the period using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model. The mosaic approach, which considers the N-most abundant land use types within a model grid cell（here, N = 3） and precisely describes the subgridscale LULC changes, was adopted in the integrations. The impacts of LULC changes based on two 36-year integrations showed that SAT generally decreased, with the sole exception being over eastern China, resulting in decreased SAT in China（-0.062 °C） and East Asian land areas（EAL,-0.061 °C）. The LULC changes induced changes in albedo, which influenced the radiation budget. The radiative forcings at the top of the atmosphere were-0.56 W m-2 across the whole of China, and-0.50 W m-2 over EAL. Meanwhile, the altered roughness length mainly influenced near-surface wind speeds, large-scale and upward moisture fluxes, latent heat fluxes, and cloud fractions at different altitudes. Though the impacts caused by the LULC changes were generally smaller at regional scales, the values at local scales were much stronger.

Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Dry–Warm Valley of the Upper Yangtze River

The hydrological process in the dry–warm valley of the mountainous area of southwest China has unique characteristics and has attracted scientific attention worldwide.Given that this is an area with fragile ecosystems and intensive water resource conflicts in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,a systematic identification of its hydrological responses to climate and land use variations needs to be performed.In this study,MIKE SHE was employed and calibrated for the Anning River Basin in the dry–warm valley.Subsequently,a deep learning neural network model of the long short-term memory(LSTM)and a traditional multi-model ensemble mean(MMEM)method were used for an ensemble of 31 global climate models(GCMs)for climate projection.The cellular automata–Markov model was implemented to project the spatial pattern of land use considering climatic,social,and economic conditions.Four sets of climate projections and three sets of land use projections were generated and fed into the MIKE SHE to project hydrologic responses from 2021 to 2050.For the calibration and first validation periods of the daily simulation,the coefficients of determination(R)were 0.85 and 0.87 and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values were 0.72 and 0.73,respectively.The advanced LSTM performed better than the traditional MMEM method for daily temperature and monthly precipitation.The average monthly temperature projection under representative concentration pathway 8.5(RCP8.5)was expected to be slightly higher than that under RCP4.5;this is contrary to the average monthly precipitation from June to October.The variations in streamflow and actual evapotranspiration(ET)were both more sensitive to climate change than to land use change.There was no significant relationship between the variations in streamflow and the ET in the study area.This work could provide general variation conditions and a range of hydrologic responses to complex and changing environments,thereby assisting with stochastic uncertainty and optimizing water resource management in critical regions.

Multi-scenario land use prediction and layout optimization in Nanjing Metropolitan Area based on the PLUS model

The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.

Projections of land use changes under the plant functional type classification in different SSP-RCP scenarios in China

Land use projections are crucial for climate models to forecast the impacts of land use changes on the Earth’s system.However,the spatial resolution of existing global land use projections(e.g.,0.25°×0.25°in the Land-Use Harmonization(LUH2)datasets)is still too coarse to drive regional climate models and assess mitigation effectiveness at regional and local scales.To generate a high-resolution land use product with the newest integrated scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways(SSPs-RCPs)for various regional climate studies in China,here we first conduct land use simulations with a newly developed Future Land Uses Simulation(FLUS)model based on the trajectories of land use demands extracted from the LUH2 datasets.On this basis,a new set of land use projections under the plant functional type(PFT)classification,with a temporal resolution of 5 years and a spatial resolution of 5 km,in eight SSP-RCP scenarios from 2015 to 2100 in China is produced.The results show that differences in land use dynamics under different SSP-RCP scenarios are jointly affected by global assumptions and national policies.Furthermore,with improved spatial resolution,the data produced in this study can sufficiently describe the details of land use distribution and better capture the spatial heterogeneity of different land use types at the regional scale.We highlight that these new land use projections at the PFT level have a strong potential for reducing uncertainty in the simulation of regional climate models with finer spatial resolutions.

The climatic impacts of land use and land cover change compared among countries

Land use and land cover change(LULCC) strongly influence regional and global climate by combining both biochemical and biophysical processes. However, the biophysical process was often ignored, which may offset the biogeochemical effects, so measures to address climate change could not reach the target. Thus, the biophysical influence of LULCC is critical for understanding observed climate changes in the past and potential scenarios in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the mechanisms and effects of large-scale LULCC on climate change through changing the underlying surface, and thus the energy balance. The key scientific issues on understanding the impacts of human activities on global climate that must be addressed including:(1) what are the basic scientific facts of spatial and temporal variations of LULCC in China and comparative countries?(2) How to understand the coupling driving mechanisms of human activities and climate change on the LULCC and then to forecasting the future scenarios?(3) What are the scientific mechanisms of LULCC impacts on biophysical processes of land surface, and then the climate?(4) How to estimate the contributions of LULCC to climate change by affecting biophysical processes of land surface? By international comparison, the impacts of LULCC on climate change at the local, regional and global scales were revealed and evaluated. It can provide theoretical basis for the global change, and have great significance to mitigate and adapt to global climate changes.

Effects of future land use change on the regional climate in China

Land use and land cover change(LUCC)is one of the important human forcing on climate.However,it is difficult to infer how LUCC will affect climate in the future from the effects of previous LUCC on regional climates in the past.Thus,based on the land cover data recommended by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5),a regional climate model(Reg CM4)was used to investigate the climate effects of future land use change over China.Two 15-year simulations(2036–2050),one with the current land use data and the other with future land cover scenario(2050)were conducted.It is noted that future LUCC in China is mainly characterized by the transition from the grassland to the forest.Results suggest that the magnitudes and ranges of the changes in temperature and precipitation caused by future LUCC show evident seasonality,which are more prominent in summer and autumn.Significant response of climate to future LUCC mainly happens in Northeast China,North China,the Hetao Area,Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China.Further investigation shows that future LUCC can also produce significant impacts on the atmospheric circulation.LUCC results in abnormal southwesterly wind over extensive areas from the Indian peninsula to the coasts of the South China Sea and South China through the Bay of Bengal.Furthermore,Indian tropical southwest monsoons and South Sea southwest monsoons will both be strong,and the abnormal water vapor convergence from the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean will result in more precipitation in South China.

Model-based analysis of spatio-temporal changes in land use in Northeast China

Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China(NEC). In total,13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980–2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution,and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980–2000,with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000,with a slight increase during 2000–2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands,particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands,which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.

Predicting and assessing changes in NPP based on multi-scenario land use and cover simulations on the Loess Plateau

Land use/cover change(LUCC)is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP).According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015,the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model.Furthermore,taking the average NPP of various land use/cover types in 16 years as the reference scale,the changes in NPP in multi-scenario simulations are predicted and analyzed,and the impact of different land use/cover transfers on NPP is quantified.The results are as follows:(1)The land use/cover changes greatly in the baseline and fast development scenarios,and changes relatively little in the ecological protection scenarios.(2)The changes in NPP in different scenarios reflected the significant difference in the ecological protection effect.All the three scenarios promote an NPP increase,but the ecological protection scenario can promote NPP increases the most.(3)The changes in NPP caused by LUCC in the three scenarios reflected the significant difference in the various land use/cover types protection effect.Analyzing and predicting NPP changes in multi-scenario LUCC simulations in the future can provide a theoretical basis for decision makers to judge the future changes in ecological environments and ecological protection effects against different policy backgrounds.

The Evolution Pattern and Simulation of Land Use in the Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Tongzhou District)

Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scientific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region.This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years,from 1980 to 2020.According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals,combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development,the Future Land-use Simulation(FLUS)model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration,deceleration and sustainable development.The results show three major trends.(1)Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)is dominated by urban development and construction.During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010,the urban expansion pattern of“along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal”was formed.During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020,the land distribution was stable,and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast.As a typical area of Tongzhou District’s urbanization,Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole.(2)By 2035,there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution.The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sustainable development scenario are optimal,which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development.In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans,the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the“Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning(Block Level)(2016–2035)”(hereinafter referred to as“Planning”)issued by the municipal government.However,there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding“Planning”expectations.During the urban construction process,the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased.(3)Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast.Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process.The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the construction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District).

Effect of land use change on water discharge in Srepok watershed,Central Highland,Viet Nam

Srepok watershed plays an important role in Central Highland in Viet Nam.It impacts to developing social-economic conditions.Therefore,it is necessary to research elements which impact to natural resources in this watershed.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model and Geography Information System(GIS)were used to simulate water discharge in the Srepok watershed.The objectives of the research were to apply GIS and SWAT model for simulation water discharge and then,we assessed land use change which impacted on water discharge in the watershed.The observed stream flow data from Ban Don Stream gauge station was used to calibrate for the period from 1981 to 2000 and then validate for the period from 2001 to 2009.After using SWAT-CUP software to calibration,NSI reached 0.63 and R square value achieved 0.64 from 2004 to 2008 in calibration and NSI gained good level at 0.74 and R square got 0.75 from 2009 to 2012 in validation step at Ban Don Station.After that,land cover in 2010 was processed like land cover in 2000 and set up SWAT model again.The simulated water discharge in scenario 1(land use 2000)was compared with scenario 2(land use 2010),the simulation result was not significant difference between two scenarios because the change of area of land use was not much enough to affect the fluctuation of water discharge.However,the effect of land cover on water resource could be seen clearly via total water yield.The percentage of surface flow in 2000 was twice times more than in 2010;retard and base flow in 2000 was slightly more than in 2010.Therefore,decreased surface flow,increased infiltration capacity of water and enriched base flow resulted in the growth of land cover.