Estimating Crash Rate of Freeway Segments Using Simultaneous Equation Model

This study develops crash rate prediction models based on the premise that crash frequencies observed from adjacent paired non-weaving and weaving freeway segments are spatially correlated and therefore requires a simultaneous equation modeling approach. Simultaneous equation models for paired freeway non-weaving segments and weaving segments along with combined three freeway segments upstream and downstream were developed to investigate the relationship of crash rate with freeway characteristics. The endogenous variables have significant coefficients which indicate that unobserved variables exist on these contiguous segments, resulting in different crash rates. AADT is a variable that can show the interaction between the traffic and crashes on these contiguous segments. The results corroborate such an interaction. By comparing the simultaneous equation model and the multiple linear regression model, it is shown that more model parameters in the simultaneous models are significant than those from linear regression model. This demonstrates the existence of the correlation between the interchange and between-interchange segments. It is crucial that some variables like segment length can be identified significant in the simultaneous model, which provides a way to quantify the safety impact of freeway development.

Empirical Research on the Relationship between Education Poverty Alleviation and Rural Revitalization—Spatial Panel Simultaneous Equation Model Based on Provincial Panel Data

On the basis of using entropy weight method to measure China’s education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization evaluation indicators, using the panel data of 30 provinces in China (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2021, a spatial panel simultaneous equation model is constructed based on adjacency matrix, geographical distance matrix and economic geographical distance matrix deeply study the interaction mechanism and spatial spillover effects between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization through the generalized spatial three-stage least squares method (GS3SLS). The results indicate that there is a significant spatial spillover effect and a positive spatial correlation between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, and there is a significant interactive effect between the two variables, while promoting each other positively. Therefore, the government should clarify the deep relationship between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization based on the current background, and better consolidate and expand the effective connection between the achievements of education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization.

Local Linear Estimation by TSLS with Variable Bandwidth for Semi-parametric Simultaneous Equation Models in Econometrics

Econometric simultaneous equation models play an important role in making economic policies, analyzing economic structure and economic forecasting. This paper presents local linear estimators by TSLS with variable bandwidth for every structural equation in semi-parametric simultaneous equation models in econometrics. The properties under large sample size were studied by using the asymptotic theory when all variables were random. The results show that the estimators of the parameters have consistency and asymptotic normality, and their convergence rates are equal to n^-1/2. And the estimator of the nonparametric function has the consistency and asymptotic normality in interior points and its rate of convergence is equal to the optimal convergence rate of the nonparametric function estimation.

A System of Simultaneous Equations (SEM) for the Study of the Effectiveness of the Japanese Monetary Policy

In this paper, the authors study the effectiveness of the Japanese monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to contrast the three major crises that the country has experienced since the second half of the 90s: that of the lost decade, that of 2008 and that of the Covid-19 pandemic. To this end, they use a particular type of mathematical-statistical model that is widely applied today in the economic field, namely a simultaneous equation model (SEM). This simultaneous equation model is estimated through an Iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) using quarterly historical series in the sample period Q1 1994 - Q2 2020. All data are in real terms. The results, appropriately compared with those of other authors, suggest that the monetary policy has a (limited) impact only on the interbank market. The fiscal policy, instead, has a greater ability to influence the money supply, the private consumption and the inflation expectations.

Estimate on spillover effect of environmental pollution between peripheral areas

Interaction of environmental pollution between peripheral areas has become a central topic in the field of resources and environment but little is known about the actual impact on peripheral areas in the current literature.This paper sets out a simultaneous equation model to investigate the spillover effect of environmental pollution between China's peripheral areas utilizing the panel data of 218 cities in China.Making use of indicators for measuring the impact on environmental pollution,it identifies that environmental pollution between cities of China has a significant two-way spillover effect.After standardization of variables,it is found that the spillover effect of peripheral areas on urban environmental pollution cannot be neglected.Nearly,a third of the environmental pollution level in a city is induced by the environmental pollution in peripheral areas.If the indicator of environmental pollution in peripheral areas is missing,wrong conclusions will be drawn.Therefore,government should shift the emphasis of environmental regulation from local to global,and improve the overall environmental quality through coordinated management of regional environment.

Factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province

This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model （SEM）. A case study in Jiangxi Province of China is conducted by establishing the SEM, which consists of three equations including agricultural production, land conversion of cultivated land to built-up area and land conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland from 1988 to 2005. And then this paper employs the method of piecewise estimation to represent the influences of the factors such as population, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions on the process of land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province. Estimation results show that population is a predominant factor driving the land-use conversion at counties, while social and economic factors are determinant factors in the short term for the entire Jiangxi Province. Specifically, the size of agricultural population and the magnitude of agricultural input determine the agricultural production to a large extent; population size, plain area proportion at counties and land management policies together affect the direction and magnitude of conversion between cultivated land and built-up area; agricultural population proportion, terrain slope, grain production and non-agricultural industry promote the conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland. Furthermore, the explored mechanism also reveals the underlying causes of the land use changes driven by a series of factors in Jiangxi Province. Finally, this paper concludes that factors proven to play an important role in driving the land-use conversion need to be considered when the land management agencies make out the land use planning to optimize the land use, expand the agricultural production, and conserve the cultivated land.

Scientific and Technological Innovation,Industrial Structure Upgrading,and High-Quality Economic Development

Scientific and technological(S&T)innovation and industrial structure upgrading have become two strategies to achieve high-quality economic development under the new pattern of development in China.Exploring the mechanism through which the former two affect the latter is of great significance to realize high-quality economic development and socialist modernization.Based on panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)from 2008 to 2017,this paper adopts the simultaneous equation model to empirically investigate the effect of S&T innovation and industrial structure upgrading on high-quality economic development.The study reveals that S&T innovation can significantly promote industrial structure upgrading and high-quality economic development,while industrial structure upgrading imposes a significantly negative effect on high-quality economic development.However,S&T innovation can offset such a negative effect and promote high-quality development indirectly.S&T innovation influences high-quality development in a dual path.To be specific,the former produces both a direct influence on the latter,but also an indirect influence through industrial structure upgrading.

Vertical Fiscal Imbalance,Transfer Payment and Local Government Governance

Accelerating the construction of modern fiscal and tax system helps not only free local governments from the shackle of the“competition for growth”development model,but also improve the governance capacity of local governments and realize the good governance of the country in the long term.Firstly,based on the typical fact of Chinese-style fiscal decentralization,this paper theoretically interprets the multiple channels and influencing mechanisms among vertical fiscal imbalance,transfer payment and local government governance.Secondly,it constructs a comprehensive index system to measure the governance capacity of local governments.The result shows that local government governance is relatively low in capacity and slow in improvement,and displays obvious regional heterogeneity.Then,the paper chooses structure and scale of transfer payment as mediator to construct the panel simultaneous equation model,and uses the three-stage least squares estimation(3SLS)for empirical investigation.The study finds that first,both the scale and structure of transfer payment may significantly affect local government governance,but the direction of the effects is opposite;second,the intensified vertical fiscal imbalance and the increase of transfer payment in scale can significantly inhibit local government governance,but the optimization of transfer payment in structure can significantly improve the governance;third,vertical fiscal imbalance not only directly inhibits the improvement of local government governance,but indirectly impedes it through the scale and structure of transfer payment.

Temperature and environmental degradation:an international evidence

Introduction:The effects of temperature have largely been under-examined in climate change studies.This study examines both direct and indirect effects of temperature on environmental degradation using the sample of 103 middle-income countries from 1985 to 2019.Unlike previous studies in which a single equation approach is utilized,our study considers the simultaneous equations modelling to examine the energy-growth-environment nexus incorporating temperature and corruption.The difference and system generalized method of moments estimations for panel data are used.Outcomes:Empirical results from this paper confirm both the direct and indirect effects(via energy consumption)of temperature on environmental degradation.We find corruption harms economic growth in middle-income countries.The continued use of fossil fuel energy in energy consumption deteriorates environmental quality.Our findings confirm the critical role of the services sector in supporting economic growth and reducing emerging consumption,leading to increased environmental quality.Conclusion:Findings from our study reconfirm the vital role of renewable energy and its extended use in achieving dual objectives of supporting economic growth and improving the environmental quality in middle-income countries.