Skew t Distribution-Based Nonlinear Filter with Asymmetric Measurement Noise Using Variational Bayesian Inference

This paper is focused on the state estimation problem for nonlinear systems with unknown statistics of measurement noise.Based on the cubature Kalman filter,we propose a new nonlinear filtering algorithm that employs a skew t distribution to characterize the asymmetry of the measurement noise.The system states and the statistics of skew t noise distribution,including the shape matrix,the scale matrix,and the degree of freedom(DOF)are estimated jointly by employing variational Bayesian(VB)inference.The proposed method is validated in a target tracking example.Results of the simulation indicate that the proposed nonlinear filter can perform satisfactorily in the presence of unknown statistics of measurement noise and outperform than the existing state-of-the-art nonlinear filters.

Joint modelling of location and scale parameters of the skew-normal distribution

Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Mapping of quantitative trait loci using the skew-normal distribution

In standard interval mapping (IM) of quantitative trait loci (QTL), the QTL effect is described by a normal mixture model. When this assumption of normality is violated, the most commonly adopted strategy is to use the previous model after data transformation. However, an appropriate transformation may not exist or may be difficult to find. Also this approach can raise interpretation issues. An interesting alternative is to consider a skew-normal mixture model in standard IM, and the resulting method is here denoted as skew-normal IM. This flexible model that includes the usual symmetric normal distribution as a special case is important, allowing continuous variation from normality to non-normality. In this paper we briefly introduce the main peculiarities of the skew-normal distribution. The maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the skew-normal distribution are obtained by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The proposed model is illustrated with real data from an intercross experiment that shows a significant departure from the normality assumption. The performance of the skew-normal IM is assessed via stochastic simulation. The results indicate that the skew-normal IM has higher power for QTL detection and better precision of QTL location as compared to standard IM and nonparametric IM.

A Method to Simulate the Skew Normal Distribution

A new method is developed to simulate the skew normal distribution. The result is interesting from a practical as well as a theoretical viewpoint. The new method is simple to program and is more efficient than the standard method of simulation by acceptance-rejection method.

The Alpha-Beta-Gamma Skew Normal Distribution and Its Application

In this paper, a new class of skew multimodal distributions with more flexible than alpha skew normal distribution and alpha-beta skew normal distribution is proposed, which makes some important distributions become its special cases. The statistical properties of the new distribution are studied in detail, its moment generating function, skewness coefficient, kurtosis coefficient, Fisher information matrix, maximum likelihood estimators are derived. Moreover, a random simulation study is carried out for test the performance of the estimators, the simulation results show that with the increase of sample size, the mean value of maximum likelihood estimators tends to the true value. The new distribution family provides a better fit compared with other known skew distributions through the analysis of a real data set.

Influence of porosity distribution on nonlinear free vibration and transient responses of porous functionally graded skew plates

This article deals with the investigation of the effects of porosity distributions on nonlinear free vibration and transient analysis of porous functionally graded skew(PFGS)plates.The effective material properties of the PFGS plates are obtained from the modified power-law equations in which gradation varies through the thickness of the PFGS plate.A nonlinear finite element(FE)formulation for the overall PFGS plate is derived by adopting first-order shear deformation theory(FSDT)in conjunction with von Karman’s nonlinear strain displacement relations.The governing equations of the PFGS plate are derived using the principle of virtual work.The direct iterative method and Newmark’s integration technique are espoused to solve nonlinear mathematical relations.The influences of the porosity distributions and porosity parameter indices on the nonlinear frequency responses of the PFGS plate for different skew angles are studied in various parameters.The effects of volume fraction grading index and skew angle on the plate’s nonlinear dynamic responses for various porosity distributions are illustrated in detail.

Variable Selection for Robust Mixture Regression Model with Skew Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

In this paper, we propose a robust mixture regression model based on the skew scale mixtures of normal distributions (RMR-SSMN) which can accommodate asymmetric, heavy-tailed and contaminated data better. For the variable selection problem, the penalized likelihood approach with a new combined penalty function which balances the SCAD and l2 penalty is proposed. The adjusted EM algorithm is presented to get parameter estimates of RMR-SSMN models at a faster convergence rate. As simulations show, our mixture models are more robust than general FMR models and the new combined penalty function outperforms SCAD for variable selection. Finally, the proposed methodology and algorithm are applied to a real data set and achieve reasonable results.

基于Skewed-t分布的FIGARCH模型与VaR的度量

金融资产收益率序列的波动具有典型的尖峰厚尾和非对称性特征,描述这种特性需以合适的概率分布函数为基础.因此,寻求更好的概率分布函数对风险度量、VaR的计算有着十分重要的意义.有鉴于此引入Skewed-t分布度量VaR,并比较分析了RiskMetrics及FIGARCH类模型度量VaR值的准确程度,本文同时分析了多头头寸和空头头寸情况下的VaR.结果表明,在两种头寸情况下,Skewed-t分布在空头和多头情形对资产厚尾特性以及非对称性的拟合效果均要比正态分布好;在两种头寸中不同的置信水平下,FIAGARCH(CHUNG)模型预测的VaR值改进了使用传统模型的精确性,高估或低估风险的程度较轻.

Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF NEAR-WALL TURBULENT VELOCITY FLUCTUATIONS

By large eddy simulation （LES）, turbulent databases of channel flows at different Reynolds numbers were established. Then, the probability distribution functions of the streamwise and wall-normal velocity fluctuations were obtained and compared with the corresponding normal distributions. By hypothesis test, the deviation from the normal distribution was analyzed quantitatively. The skewness and flatness factors were also calculated. And the variations of these two factors in the viscous sublayer, buffer layer and log-law layer were discussed. Still illustrated were the relations between the probability distribution functions and the burst events-sweep of high-speed fluids and ejection of low-speed fluidsIin the viscous sub-layer, buffer layer and loglaw layer. Finally the variations of the probability distribution functions with Reynolds number were examined.

An Epsilon Half Normal Slash Distribution and Its Applications to Nonnegative Measurements

We introduce a new class of the slash distribution using the epsilon half normal distribution. The newly defined model extends the slashed half normal distribution and has more kurtosis than the ordinary half normal distribution. We study the characterization and properties including moments and some measures based on moments of this distribution. A simulation is conducted to investigate asymptotically the bias properties of the estimators for the parameters. We illustrate its use on a real data set by using maximum likelihood estimation.

Simulation Program to Determine Sample Size and Power for a Multiple Logistic Regression Model with Unspecified Covariate Distributions

Binary logistic regression models are commonly used to assess the association between outcomes and covariates. Many covariates are inherently continuous, and have a variety of distributions, including those that are heavily skewed to the left or right. Existing theoretical formulas, criteria, and simulation programs cannot accurately estimate the sample size and power of non-standard distributions. Therefore, we have developed a simulation program that uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate the exact power of a binary logistic regression model. This power calculation can be used for distributions of any shape and covariates of any type (continuous, ordinal, and nominal), and can account for nonlinear relationships between covariates and outcomes. For illustrative purposes, this simulation program is applied to real data obtained from a study on the influence of smoking on 90-day outcomes after acute atherothrombotic stroke. Our program is applicable to all effect sizes and makes it possible to apply various statistical methods, logistic regression and related simulations such as Bayesian inference with some modifications.

Kumaraswamy-Odd Rayleigh-G Family of Distributions with Applications

We propose a new generator of continuous distributions with at least four positive parameters called the Kumaraswamy-Odd Rayleigh-G family. Some special cases were presented. The plots of the Kumaraswamy Odd Rayleigh Log-Logistic (KORLL) distribution indicate that the distribution can take many shapes depending on the parameter values. The negative skewness and kurtosis indicates that the distribution has lighter tails than the normal distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that the estimated biases decrease when the sample size increases. Furthermore, the root mean squared error estimates decay towards zero as the sample size increases. This part shows the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators. From the considered analytical measures, the new KORLL provides the best fit to the analysed five real data sets indicating that this new model outclasses its competitors.

Extended Rama Distribution:Properties and Applications

In this paper,the Rama distribution(RD)is considered,and a new model called extended Rama distribution(ERD)is suggested.The new model involves the sum of two independent Rama distributed random variables.The probability density function(pdf)and cumulative distribution function(cdf)are obtained and analyzed.It is found that the new model is skewed to the right.Several mathematical and statistical properties are derived and proved.The properties studied include moments,coefficient of variation,coefficient of skewness,coefficient of kurtosis and moment generating function.Some simulations are undertaken to illustrate the behavior of these properties.In addition,the reliability analysis of the distribution is investigated through the hazard rate function,reversed hazard rate function and odds function.The parameter of the distribution is estimated based on the maximum likelihood method.The distributions of order statistics for ERD are also presented.The performance of the suggested model is compared with several other lifetime distributions based on some goodness of fit tests on a real dataset.It turns out that the suggested model is more flexible than its competitors considered in this study,for modeling real lifetime data.

Beta-Exponentiated Ishita Distribution and Its Applications

This article develops a beta-exponentiated Ishita distribution that extends the exponentiated Ishita distribution. Expansions for the cumulative distribution and probability density functions are given. Various properties of the new distribution such as hazard function, moments, cumulants, skewness, kurtosis, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, Rényi and Tsallis entropies, and stress-strength reliability are discussed. Moment generating function and characteristic function of the new model were derived. Distribution and the moment of order statistic have been derived. The method of maximum likelihood was used for estimation of parameters. The new model is quite flexible in analysing positively skewed data. Two real datasets are used to demonstrate the flexibility of the new distribution.

APPROXIMATE REPRESENTATION OF THE p-NORM DISTRIBUTION

In surveying data processing,we generally suppose that the observational errors distribute normally.In this case the method of least squares can give the minimum variance unbiased estimation of the parameters.The method of least squares does not have the character of robustness,so the use of it will become unsuitable when a few measurements inheriting gross error mix with others.We can use the robust estimating methods that can avoid the influence of gross errors.With this kind of method there is no need to know the exact distribution of the observations.But it will cause other difficulties such as the hypothesis testing for estimated parameters when the sample size is not so big.For non_normally distributed measurements we can suppose they obey the p _norm distribution law.The p _norm distribution is a distributional class,which includes the most frequently used distributions such as the Laplace,Normal and Rectangular ones.This distribution is symmetric and has a kurtosis between 3 and -6/5 when p is larger than 1.Using p _norm distribution to describe the statistical character of the errors,the only assumption is that the error distribution is a symmetric and unimodal curve.This method possesses the property of a kind of self_adapting.But the density function of the p _norm distribution is so complex that it makes the theoretical analysis more difficult.And the troublesome calculation also makes this method not suitable for practice.The research of this paper indicates that the p _norm distribution can be represented by the linear combination of Laplace distribution and normal distribution or by the linear combination of normal distribution and rectangular distribution approximately.Which kind of representation will be taken is according to whether the parameter p is larger than 1 and less than 2 or p is larger than 2.The approximate distribution have the same first four order moments with the exact one.It means that approximate distribution has the same mathematical expectation,variance,skewness and kurtosis with p _norm distribution.Because every density function used in the approximate formulae has a simple form,using the approximate density function to replace the p _norm ones will simplify the problems of p _norm distributed data processing obviously.

Flexible Reduced Logarithmic-Inverse Lomax Distribution with Application for Bladder Cancer

In this paper, a new method for adding parameters to a well-established distribution to obtain more flexible new families of distributions is applied to the inverse Lomax distribution (IFD). This method is known by the flexible reduced logarithmic-X family of distribution (FRL-X). The proposed distribution can be called a flexible reduced logarithmic-inverse Lomax distribution (FRL-IL). The statistical and reliability properties of the proposed models are studied including moments, order statistics, moment generating function, and quantile function. The estimation of the model parameters by maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix are also discussed. In order to assess the potential of the newly created distribution. The extended model is applied to real data and the results are given and compared to other models.

Research on Gaussian distribution preprocess method of infrared multispectral image background clutter

This paper introduces a sliding-window mean removal high pass filter by which background clutter of infrared multispectral image is obtained. The method of selecting the optimum size of the sliding-window is based on the skewness-kurtosis test. In the end, a multivariate Gaussian distribution mathematical expression of background clutter image is given.

偏正态条件下多元线性回归模型的统计推断及其应用

本文考虑带偏正态随机项多元线性回归模型的统计推断问题.基于最大似然方法,本文所做的工作如下:1)证明了参数最大似然估计在n≥p+1条件下以概率1存在唯一;2)在唯一性条件下给出参数估计的一致性结论;3)在一致性的条件下研究了参数的渐近性质,给出参数的渐近分布.最后通过数值模拟说明了所提理论和方法的有效性.实例表明模型参数估计的渐近分布具有实际意义.

偏态分布截断参数的经验Bayes检验

偏态分布是对称分布的一种推广,在实际生活中应用广泛,其中截断参数对界定偏态分布的边界具有重要意义.文中基于经验Bayes检验方法,研究了偏态分布截断参数的假设检验问题.考虑普通Bayes检验中先验密度的未知性和不确定性,利用递归核估计的密度函数代替未知的先验密度函数.定义检验的加权线性损失函数,从而更好地刻画了决策风险.在给定条件下证明了所提出检验函数的渐近最优性,同时给出确定的收敛速度.最后通过实例验证了文中的理论结果.