局地微地形产生的微气象环境是造成气象预报误差的重要因素之一,也是导致覆冰预报准确性不高的主要原因。该研究利用高精度MODIS系统15 s(约500 m)地形数据驱动中尺度天气研究和预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式,并使用...局地微地形产生的微气象环境是造成气象预报误差的重要因素之一,也是导致覆冰预报准确性不高的主要原因。该研究利用高精度MODIS系统15 s(约500 m)地形数据驱动中尺度天气研究和预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式,并使用基于决策树的梯度提升框架(light gradient boosting machine,LightGBM)对WRF预报进行订正,通过局地个例评估订正后的覆冰预测效果。结果表明:在假设条件下,过冷液滴覆冰速率随温度降低先快速增加,后增长速率保持不变,且液滴粒径越大,完全冻结所需温度越低;WRF-LightGBM订正算法在山区微地形下有效提升了温度预报准确度,典型冬季寒潮条件下预测温度与实际温度的误差在2℃以内,预报准确率为76%;以典型区域杆塔覆冰为例,输入订正后的温度和相对湿度数据后,覆冰融化时段被消除,覆冰厚度曲线与实际基本一致,增长速率接近一致。展开更多
Qinghai Lake is the largest saline lake in China.The change in the lake volume is an indicator of the variation in water resources and their response to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)in China.The p...Qinghai Lake is the largest saline lake in China.The change in the lake volume is an indicator of the variation in water resources and their response to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)in China.The present study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)on the lake volume of the Qinghai Lake in China from 1958 to 2018,which is crucial for water resources management in the Qinghai Lake Basin.To explore the effects of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume,we analyzed the lake level observation data and multi-period land use/land cover(LULC)data by using an improved lake volume estimation method and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.Our results showed that the lake level decreased at the rate of 0.08 m/a from 1958 to 2004 and increased at the rate of 0.16 m/a from 2004 to 2018.The lake volume decreased by 105.40×10^(8) m^(3) from 1958 to 2004,with the rate of 2.24×10^(8) m^(3)/a,whereas it increased by 74.02×10^(8) m^(3) from 2004 to 2018,with the rate of 4.66×10^(8) m^(3)/a.Further,the climate of the Qinghai Lake Basin changed from warm-dry to warm-humid.From 1958 to 2018,the increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation controlled the change of the lake volume,which were the main climatic factors affecting the lake volume change.From 1977 to 2018,the measured water yield showed an"increase-decrease-increase"fluctuation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.The effects of climate change and LUCC on the measured water yield were obviously different.From 1977 to 2018,the contribution rate of LUCC was -0.76% and that of climate change was 100.76%;the corresponding rates were 8.57% and 91.43% from 1977 to 2004,respectively,and -4.25% and 104.25% from 2004 to 2018,respectively.Quantitative analysis of the effects and contribution rates of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume revealed the scientific significance of climate change and LUCC,as well as their individual and combined effects in the Qinghai Lake Basin and on the QTP.This study can contribute to the water resources management and regional sustainable development of the Qinghai Lake Basin.展开更多
The Ulan Buh Desert has a fragile natural environment, which is in the western part of Inner Mongolia arid climate zone and the farming and animal husbandry ecotone. In order to explore the driving force mechanism of ...The Ulan Buh Desert has a fragile natural environment, which is in the western part of Inner Mongolia arid climate zone and the farming and animal husbandry ecotone. In order to explore the driving force mechanism of the Land Cover Change, the paper constructed the natural-human driving force model by the Markov Chain based on Landsat MSS 1973, 1977 remote sensing image data, analyzed the naturalhuman driving force contribution rate to the Land Cover Change in Ulan Buh Desert. The results showed that in 1989-2013 the main driving force of the Ulan Buh Desert Land Cover Change is the natural factors, average contribution rate is 89.46%, then is the human driving force, the rate is 10.54%. The natural-human driving force contribution rate for every land cover type is different, in natural part, the minimum rate is saline-alkali land for 45.20%, while the maximum is sandy land(90.63%). The human driving force rate of forest land, grassland and water was negative, it shows that human factors slows down or hinder the growth of this kind of land cover. Because of the humanistic attribute, the natural effect of the cultivated land and construction land was abandoned, the rates of human driving are significantly different: the change of human driving force is 24.94%, while the change of construction land is 62.9%.展开更多
文摘局地微地形产生的微气象环境是造成气象预报误差的重要因素之一,也是导致覆冰预报准确性不高的主要原因。该研究利用高精度MODIS系统15 s(约500 m)地形数据驱动中尺度天气研究和预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式,并使用基于决策树的梯度提升框架(light gradient boosting machine,LightGBM)对WRF预报进行订正,通过局地个例评估订正后的覆冰预测效果。结果表明:在假设条件下,过冷液滴覆冰速率随温度降低先快速增加,后增长速率保持不变,且液滴粒径越大,完全冻结所需温度越低;WRF-LightGBM订正算法在山区微地形下有效提升了温度预报准确度,典型冬季寒潮条件下预测温度与实际温度的误差在2℃以内,预报准确率为76%;以典型区域杆塔覆冰为例,输入订正后的温度和相对湿度数据后,覆冰融化时段被消除,覆冰厚度曲线与实际基本一致,增长速率接近一致。
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100101)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFC0507404)the Gansu Province Science Foundation for Youth,China(20JR5RA543).
文摘Qinghai Lake is the largest saline lake in China.The change in the lake volume is an indicator of the variation in water resources and their response to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)in China.The present study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)on the lake volume of the Qinghai Lake in China from 1958 to 2018,which is crucial for water resources management in the Qinghai Lake Basin.To explore the effects of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume,we analyzed the lake level observation data and multi-period land use/land cover(LULC)data by using an improved lake volume estimation method and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.Our results showed that the lake level decreased at the rate of 0.08 m/a from 1958 to 2004 and increased at the rate of 0.16 m/a from 2004 to 2018.The lake volume decreased by 105.40×10^(8) m^(3) from 1958 to 2004,with the rate of 2.24×10^(8) m^(3)/a,whereas it increased by 74.02×10^(8) m^(3) from 2004 to 2018,with the rate of 4.66×10^(8) m^(3)/a.Further,the climate of the Qinghai Lake Basin changed from warm-dry to warm-humid.From 1958 to 2018,the increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation controlled the change of the lake volume,which were the main climatic factors affecting the lake volume change.From 1977 to 2018,the measured water yield showed an"increase-decrease-increase"fluctuation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.The effects of climate change and LUCC on the measured water yield were obviously different.From 1977 to 2018,the contribution rate of LUCC was -0.76% and that of climate change was 100.76%;the corresponding rates were 8.57% and 91.43% from 1977 to 2004,respectively,and -4.25% and 104.25% from 2004 to 2018,respectively.Quantitative analysis of the effects and contribution rates of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume revealed the scientific significance of climate change and LUCC,as well as their individual and combined effects in the Qinghai Lake Basin and on the QTP.This study can contribute to the water resources management and regional sustainable development of the Qinghai Lake Basin.
文摘The Ulan Buh Desert has a fragile natural environment, which is in the western part of Inner Mongolia arid climate zone and the farming and animal husbandry ecotone. In order to explore the driving force mechanism of the Land Cover Change, the paper constructed the natural-human driving force model by the Markov Chain based on Landsat MSS 1973, 1977 remote sensing image data, analyzed the naturalhuman driving force contribution rate to the Land Cover Change in Ulan Buh Desert. The results showed that in 1989-2013 the main driving force of the Ulan Buh Desert Land Cover Change is the natural factors, average contribution rate is 89.46%, then is the human driving force, the rate is 10.54%. The natural-human driving force contribution rate for every land cover type is different, in natural part, the minimum rate is saline-alkali land for 45.20%, while the maximum is sandy land(90.63%). The human driving force rate of forest land, grassland and water was negative, it shows that human factors slows down or hinder the growth of this kind of land cover. Because of the humanistic attribute, the natural effect of the cultivated land and construction land was abandoned, the rates of human driving are significantly different: the change of human driving force is 24.94%, while the change of construction land is 62.9%.
