A Simulation Study of Hierarchical Bayesian Fusion Spatial Small Area Model for Binary Outcome under Spatial Misalignment

Simulation (stochastic) methods are based on obtaining random samples θ5 from the desired distribution p(θ) and estimating the expectation of any function h(θ). Simulation methods can be used for high-dimensional distributions, and there are general algorithms which work for a wide variety of models. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been important in making Bayesian inference practical for generic hierarchical models in small area estimation. Small area estimation is a method for producing reliable estimates for small areas. Model based Bayesian small area estimation methods are becoming popular for their ability to combine information from several sources as well as taking account of spatial prediction of spatial data. In this study, detailed simulation algorithm is given and the performance of a non-trivial extension of hierarchical Bayesian model for binary data under spatial misalignment is assessed. Both areal level and unit level latent processes were considered in modeling. The process models generated from the predictors were used to construct the basis so as to alleviate the problem of collinearity between the true predictor variables and the spatial random process. The performance of the proposed model was assessed using MCMC simulation studies. The performance was evaluated with respect to root mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and coverage probability of corresponding 95% CI of the estimate. The estimates from the proposed model perform better than the direct estimate.

Constructing Statistical Intervals for Small Area Estimates Based on Generalized Linear Mixed Model in Health Surveys

Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) has been widely used in small area estimation for health indicators. Bayesian estimation is usually used to construct statistical intervals, however, its computational intensity is a big challenge for large complex surveys. Frequentist approaches, such as bootstrapping, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, are also applied but not evaluated in terms of the interval magnitude, width, and the computational time consumed. The 2013 Florida Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data was used as a case study. County-level estimated prevalence of three health-related outcomes was obtained through a GLMM;and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were generated from bootstrapping and MC simulation. The intervals were compared to 95% credential intervals through a hierarchial Bayesian model. The results showed that 95% CIs for county-level estimates of each outcome by using MC simulation were similar to the 95% credible intervals generated by Bayesian estimation and were the most computationally efficient. It could be a viable option for constructing statistical intervals for small area estimation in public health practice.

A Comparison of Hierarchical Bayesian Models for Small Area Estimation of Counts

Small area estimation (SAE) tackles the problem of providing reliable estimates for small areas, i.e., subsets of the population for which sample information is not sufficient to warrant the use of a direct estimator. Hierarchical Bayesian approach to SAE problems offers several advantages over traditional SAE models including the ability of appropriately accounting for the type of surveyed variable. In this paper, a number of model specifications for estimating small area counts are discussed and their relative merits are illustrated. We conducted a simulation study by reproducing in a simplified form the Italian Labour Force Survey and taking the Local Labor Markets as target areas. Simulated data were generated by assuming population characteristics of interest as well as survey sampling design as known. In one set of experiments, numbers of employment/unemployment from census data were utilized, in others population characteristics were varied. Results show persistent model failures for some standard Fay-Herriot specifications and for generalized linear Poisson models with (log-)normal sampling stage, whilst either unmatched or nonnormal sampling stage models get the best performance in terms of bias, accuracy and reliability. Though, the study also found that any model noticeably improves on its performance by letting sampling variances be stochastically determined rather than assumed as known as is the general practice. Moreover, we address the issue of model determination to point out limits and possible deceptions of commonly used criteria for model selection and checking in SAE context.

Combining multiple imperfect data sources for small area estimation:a Bayesian model of provincial fertility rates in Cambodia

Demographic estimation becomes a problem of small area estimation when detaileddisaggregation leads to small cell counts.The usual difficulties of small area estimation are compounded when the available data sources contain measurement errors.We present a Bayesianapproach to the problem of small area estimation with imperfect data sources.The overall modelcontains separate submodels for underlying demographic processes and for measurement processes.All unknown quantities in the model,including coverage ratios and demographic rates,are estimated jointly via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.The approach is illustrated usingthe example of provincial fertility rates in Cambodia.

BLUP Estimation of Linear Mixed-effects Models with Measurement Errors and Its Applications to the Estimation of Small Areas

The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with measurement errors in the covariates. The empirical BLUP estimator of the linear combination of the fixed and random effects and its approximate conditional MSE are derived. The application to the estimation of small area is provided. Simulation study shows good performance of the proposed estimators.

Small area estimation with subgroup analysis

In this article,a new unit level model based on a pairwise penalised regression approach is proposed for problems in small area estimation(SAE).Instead of assuming common regression coefficients for all small domains in the traditional model,the new estimator is based on a subgroup regression model which allows different regression coefficients in different groups.The alternating direction method of multipliers(ADMM)algorithm is used to find subgroups with different regression coefficients.We also consider pairwise spatial weights for spatial areal data.In the simulation study,we compare the performances of the new estimator with the traditional small area estimator.We also apply the new estimator to urban area estimation using data from the National Resources Inventory survey in Iowa.

Mathematical Model of Small Water-plane Area Twin-hull and Application in Marine Simulator

小水飞机区域成双壳(一行) 由于它的好经得起海上风浪的能力引起了许多研究人员的注意。在这份报纸，分离的 MMG 想法被用来执行一行运动建模和模拟；分别地，一行的力量和时刻被划分成赤裸的壳，推进器，在液体水动力学的 rudder，等等。在还原剂插入了相互的干扰在壳之中强迫的系数，和 rudder 的推进器和推进器弄醒系数，为一行的计算，都被考虑。集成的第四顺序的 Runge-Kutta 方法被解决微分方程使用，以便得到一行运动状态。作为一个例子，在全速和海鸥手艺的完整的右舷 rudder 的转弯的测试被显示出。模拟结果显示出一行常规模式和运动的趋势。它验证转弯的运动的数学模型的正确性。一行数学模型被用于海洋的模拟器以便训练飞行员或 seamen，或为海洋工程的安全评价投射。最后，模仿系统(FMNSS ) 的完整的使命航行决心是航行模拟的域里的一件成功的虚拟现实技术应用程序样品。

Resistance and Seakeeping Numerical Performance Analyses of a Semi-Small Waterplane Area Twin Hull at Medium to High Speeds

新半小的 waterplane 区域双胞胎壳(一行) 的水动力学分析对象小、中等的尺寸旅客渡船那样的各种各样的应用合适被介绍。这可以是源于合并二古典形状的一种吸引人的转线路配置：常规一行和快长筏。最后的壳设计与最大的横梁展出像楔的吃水线形状在严厉；壳与一个很狭窄的入口角度结束，有典型地代表一行容器的一个突出的球状的弓，并且展示完整对严厉安排 waterjet 推进器。我们与如此的建筑群执行对壳的水动力学表演的一个初步的评价的分析目的在常规头波浪在平静的水和经得起海上风浪的能力里以壳的抵抗塑造两个并且把表演与常规一行的作比较。分析用 preliminarily 在一个常规一行容器上被验证的一个边界元素方法被执行。

Research on Age-friendly Open Spaces Design in Residential Areas of Small Towns

Taking the accelerating aging and newly promoted urbanization as backdrops, this paper, on one side, analyzed the demands for parks, squares, fi tness facilities, chairs, etc. of elders in small towns from perspectives of unique physical, psychological and social features of elders. On the other side, it also tackled the inadequacies of open spaces in small towns. Moreover, it proposed strategies such as creating social activity spaces, cultivating therapeutic green landscapes, constructing diversely secure fi tness spaces and building age integrated environments, etc. for designing age-friendly open spaces in small towns.

Impact of the Small Town Construction on Original Inhabitants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area——A Case Study in Lishu Village, Changling Town, Chongqing Municipality, China

Based on the five-year long dynamic tracking and investigation of the peasant households of the Lishu village, the influences by small town construction on the economy and employment of the original peasant households are discussed. On the one hand, small town construction plays a positive role in adjustment of the industrial structure of the original peasant households and in the transfer of their employment towards non-agricultural industries. On the other hand the economic growth of the original peasant households is not so well sustainable, and is so fluctuating. Moreover, the unbalance of income distribution of the said households has been furthered, and small town construction has made the existing labor surplus of the original peasant households more serious, particularly the women labor surplus.

Utilization and Management of Small Fishery Population Resources in Coastal and Offshore Areas of China

There are numerous types of living resources in coastal and offshore areas of China. In recent years,both the population type and quantity structure have significant changes,and the stock of small fishery population resources is increasing. This population is precious protein resource. It is urgent to study how to take prompt and effective fishing and take full advantage of processing,utilization and management. Traditional utilization methods are limited by many factors. The utilization efficiency is extremely low. The feed conversion rate of some mariculture fishes with fresh small trash fishes as feeds is even as low as 0. 2. Innovative production and management organization model with aquatic enterprises as leaders greatly increases the utilization efficiency of small fish resources with the aid of marine processing mother ship. In order to further accelerate developing and utilizing small fishery population resources in coastal and offshore areas,China should launch survey and utilization researches of small fishery population resources in coastal and offshore areas,formulate practical and feasible laws,regulations and policies,actively encourage and support autonomous innovative management mode of enterprises,and promote effective utilization and management of coastal and offshore fishery resources.

Determination of Carboplatin Dose by Area Under the Curve in Combination Chemotherapy for Senile Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

To preliminarily determine the appropriate dosage of carboplatin （CBP） at AUC of 5 mg-M1^-1·min^-1 in the combination chemotherapy for Chinese senile patients with non-small cell lung cancer （NSCLC）. Thirty-five Chinese senile patients with NSCLC in advanced stage （Ⅲ/Ⅳ） were given 96 cycles of combination chemotherapy. Chemotherapy schedules included Taxol＋CBP, Gemzar＋CBP and NVB＋CBE The dose of CBP was at 5 mg.mL^-1·min^-1 of area under the concentration-time curve （AUC）. Side effects and quality of life were observed before and after the chemotherapy. Myelosuppression was severe and commonly observed. Grade 3/4 of granulocytopenia was found in 47.9% （46/96） of the patients and grade 3/4 of thrombocytopenia was noted in 28.1% （27/96） of the subjects. However, other side effects were slight. The mean score of quality of life （QOL）, according to the criteria of QOL for Chinese cancer patients had reduced 6.8. At 5 mg.mL^-1·min^-1 by AUC, the hematological toxicity of CBP was severe and it had some negative effects on the QOL. The administration of CBP at 5 mg.mL^-1·min^-1 by AUC may be too high for Chinese senile patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

小区域尺度视角下的丽江市玉河健康特征研究

随着社会发展,工业化、城镇化进程不断加快,河湖生态问题日益突出且呈现更复杂的发展态势,进行河湖健康评价,开展河湖健康问题诊断,针对性地提出河湖生态系统精准治理、生态修复与保护等对策显的尤为迫切.结合丽江市典型河流玉河,以水域岸线状况、水量水质状况、生物状况、社会服务功能等4个准则层为重要抓手,构建11个指标层的河流健康评价体系,将玉河划分为农村段、城镇段、复合段3个小区域尺度进行综合评价,探讨了小区域尺度河流健康评价差异性特征,研究表明:玉河全河段、各分段均处于亚健康状态,玉河农村段、复合段、各城镇段岸线部分指标层、准则层间健康状况差异性显著,主要存在水资源禀赋差,生态流量小,底栖动物少,局部岸线状况较差的问题.

2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核流行特征分析

目的:分析2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核流行特征,为以后更好开展结核病防治工作提供科学依据。方法:通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”的子系统“结核病信息管理系统”,收集2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核患者相关资料,包括性别、年龄、职业、病原学情况、现住址等,采用描述性流行病学方法进行统计分析。结果:2012—2022年石景山区共报告肺结核患者1954例,年均报告发病率为28.60/10万。肺结核报告发病率由2012年的35.70/10万(231例)下降到2022年的21.85/10万(123例),总体呈下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=40.035,P<0.001)。报告肺结核患者中,男性1288例,女性666例,性别比为1.93∶1,男性报告发病率(37.44/10万,1288/3 440 000)高于女性(19.63/10万,666/3 392 000),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=189.416,P<0.001)。0~14岁、15~64岁、≥65岁3个年龄组肺结核报告发病率分别为2.76/10万(19/688 973)、25.69/10万(1372/5 341 527)和69.21/10万(563/813 409),≥65岁年龄组报告发病率明显高于0~14岁和15~64岁年龄组,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=647.183,P<0.001)。职业分布前5位的是离退休人员(33.88%,662/1954)、家务及待业(21.19%,414/1954)、干部职员(9.88%,193/1954)、工人(8.55%,167/1954)、学生及教师(6.14%,120/1954)。第2季度报告肺结核患者例数最多(26.36%,515/1954),其次是第4季度(25.03%,489/1954),第1季度(23.80%,465/1954)最少。结论:2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,≥65岁老年人是石景山区肺结核防控的重点人群,应采取有效措施,尽早发现老年患者,及时采取治疗措施。

基于HS-Small模型临江深基坑降水变形特性分析

临江深基坑工程地下水随江水位变化呈现长期水位低、汛期水位高的动态特征,坑内降水导致周围地层渗流场趋于复杂,易引发围护结构破坏、坑底管涌和基坑失稳等工程事故。为此,采用基于HS-Small本构模型对深基坑工程的开挖-降水过程进行模拟,分析了降水影响因素(降水深度、方式、速率和止水帷幕)对周围环境变形的敏感性及其相互之间的关系,并将分析结果与实测结果进行对比验证。结果表明,随临江深基坑土方开挖和降水进行,基坑坡顶、坑外土体和周边建筑物沉降变形逐渐增大,其中降水对基坑变形影响更明显;分次降水能有效降低周围建筑物和地表的沉降变形;降水深度建议控制在底板以下0.5~2.0 m;降水速率对周围环境沉降总量影响相对较小,但对沉降速率影响较大,当降水速率达到最优值时对基坑稳定性控制有益;止水帷幕嵌入深度超过30 m后对控制周围建筑沉降效果不明显。研究结果可为类似临江深基坑降水工程设计施工提供借鉴和参考。

我国陆地边境地区人口未来发展趋势预测

我国陆地边境地区在国家总体安全、区域协调发展和对外开放等重大战略上占有独特地位。人口之于边境地区安全、发展具有特殊地位和重要意义。文章在探讨边境人口预测必要性与可行性的基础上,利用第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据,以队列要素法为基础,对未来50年我国陆地边境地区人口增长和人口结构变动趋势进行了多情景预测。预测结果显示,无论在何种预测方案下,未来陆地边境地区的人口负增长趋势都将长期延续,2050~2060年,人口内生负增长趋势将在所有边境地区蔓延开来。在考虑人口迁移的情况下,陆地边境人口总规模下降速度更快,尤其在2040~2070年后,人口迁移流动对人口负增长的加速作用将更为明显。人口结构方面,未来边境人口老龄化速度将更快。劳动年龄人口比重和育龄妇女的比重则将持续下降。考虑人口迁移的情况下,吉林、黑龙江、辽宁、内蒙古陆地边境地区还将面临严峻的人口结构失衡与生育潜力削弱的问题。要立足边境人口负增长将长期持续的现实,重视提高边境人口生产生活条件,增强居留稳定性;充分发挥边境地区政策优势与固有优势,培养与吸引人才;提高边境地区生育潜力,放宽边境生育限制,关注生育主体的需求;充分考虑不同边境地区发展条件,探索符合边境地区现实情况的人口方案。

基于多层次模型的小域估计方法研究——考虑抽样误差与测量误差的比率估计

小域估计的核心在于如何对样本量极少甚至为0的域作出较为可靠的子总体特征估计。小域内样本量有限,即在估计时可利用的信息有限,最大程度挖掘样本信息并借助其他域样本推断本小域特征,是提高小域估计精度的关键。传统基于设计的推断效果受样本量制约,不适用于样本量有限的小域估计问题,此时,需要采用基于模型的方法进行估计。文章针对比率估计,基于多层次模型刻画有限总体和小域之间的层次结构,分别通过第一层模型和第二层模型刻画域间异质性和域间相关性,借助其他域的样本单元实现对指定小域的估计,并在此基础上考察抽样机制和测量误差的影响。针对所提出的模型,给出具体的参数估计与误差估计方法,通过模拟验证具体效果,并将其应用于实际数据集。

广州市“窄马路、密路网”街区交通规划提升实践

实现“窄马路、密路网”街区交通规划需要从路网指标、交通组织、设施配置等多方面进行更加精细化的管控。首先,通过总结广州市20余个“窄马路、密路网”街区规划案例,梳理该类街区的空间及交通特征,总结实施过程中存在的典型问题与成因,分析“窄马路、密路网”街区尺度和路网形态对交通组织、设施布局的影响,提出加强“窄马路、密路网”街区交通规划管控的必要性。其次,围绕街区交通效能和出行环境提升,研究形成三大规划提升策略:加强路网指标整体管控、优化街区人车交通组织、精准配置交通设施,并明确街区尺度、支路占比、道路面积率、路网连通性、公共汽车首末站小型化、停车库互联互通等详细管控要求。最后,以广州设计之都三期为例,基于综合评估提出交通规划提升方案。

小型豆类播种机结构设计

为了加快推进我国丘陵山地农业机械化,针对丘陵山区地形地势特点和种植模式,研发了一款小型豆类播种机。该播种机由前驱动轮及转向装置、施肥开沟器、种子肥料箱、播种开沟器、旋转式播种器、后驱动轮和覆土装置等组成,对其转向系统、开沟器、排种器、覆土器和排肥器的结构进行了优化设计,保证能够高效地一次性完成开沟、施肥、播种、覆土等作业。该播种机由四轮独立驱动,爬坡时能够平稳运行,适用于丘陵地区单人半自动化播种作业,提高了作业效率和适用性。