Panel Random Analysis of Credit Risk in Business

Market economy is a kind of credit economy. The survival and development of an individual in the society are closely related with his credit. Without credit, market economy can not continue, the society can hardly run in good order and good health. This paper defines the basic concept of trade credit risk with its manifestation and brings forward the basic mode quantitatively analyzing the credit risk. The data structure of information is analyzed, the decomposition model of credit risk is structured and with the aid of statistical analysis, including regression analysis, analysis of variance, test of hypothesized, the description, classification, certification and confirmation of credit risk model are completed, then, we can describe and control the credit risk with the model to provide basis when building credit support system in today＇s society.

Issues concerning Development of Consumer Credit Business in China's Agricultural Bank

This article introduces the status quo of consumer credit business in China's agricultural bank,indicating that the scale of China's consumer credit business is expanded year by year;the growth of consumer credit business slows down;housing loans grow rapidly.We analyze issues concerning development of consumer credit business in agricultural bank as follows:single variety of consumer credit business makes the operating scope narrow;the formality of consumer credit business is trivial,abating consumers' will to borrow;consumers' consumer attitudes are stale,yet to be further changed;the loan interest of consumer credit is beyond the majority of consumers' actual ability to pay;the existing regulations and systems are not sound;the risk prevention mechanism is not perfect.Based on this,we put forward the following countermeasures and proposals for further improving consumer credit business in China's agricultural bank:first,formulate reasonable marketing strategy of consumer credit business;second,establish and improve the internal management mechanism;third,establish and improve risk assessment system;fourth,improve consumer credit legal system.

The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in the Economy of Turkey

This study examines econometric relationships between bank lending and the business cycle in Turkey. Firstly, the cyclical components of the real GDP and real bank loans were determined using time series. A cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data were used for period of 1987：01-2013：03. The results of cointegration analysis indicate that there is a single stable long-run equilibrium relationship between real bank loans and macroeconomic variables. The response of bank loans to GDP shocks is positive. Bank loans have pro-cyclical character in Turkey.

Analysis on Internet Financial Business and Construction of Credit System

Internet finance is a new emerging financial model,using the Internet as a platform,big data and cloud computing as the basis.Supply Chain Finance is the easiest way to enter Internet finance.The thirdparty companies or institutions can invest in Internet financial companies by integrating their industrial chain practices into designing the financial products to reduce credit costs and improve safety.At the same time,it will increase mobile Internet,big data and operational services.Also,it can make full use of the Internet financial platform to provide value-added services for higher and lower enterprise and consolidate the core status of the company in the industrial chain.However,an important issue that needs to be concerned during developing Supply Chain Finance is the construction of a system for credit evaluation.Due to the lack of a unified credit evaluation system,the development of the existing Supply Chain Financial companies suffers from difficulties.Many newly launched companies have difficulties operating due to the lack of a credit evaluation system.Therefore,proper and effective credit indicators are essential for the development of enterprises under Internet finance.From the micro perspective,it is conducive for enterprises to improve their credit under the constraints of indicators,and it can solve the problem of capital raising;from the macro perspective,it is conducive to the standardized development of China’s Internet finance and promotes the comprehensive economic development.Based on this,analyzing the model of Internet financial business and developing an enterprise’s credit index system is beneficial to the development of China’s Internet finance.

Discussion on Consumer Credit Business of Traditional Commercial Banks under Internet Finance

With the advent and development of the information age,the Internet has become the current advancement in all walks of life.The popularization of e-commerce also gives birth to Internet finance.The emergence of consumer credit businesses such as“Yu‘ebao”and“Huabei”has put great pressure on the consumer credit business of traditional commercial Banks.Under the background of Internet finance,in order to promote the development of commercial Banks’consumer credit business,it is necessary to strengthen the innovation of commercial Banks’consumer credit business and meet the development demand of the current information age.

A Study on Empowerment of Rural Women Through Microcredit Facilities in Sri Lanka

This study seeks to examine the impact of micro credit facilities on women empowerment in the context of the great importance being given to the entrepreneurs. Access to credit can help women by enabling them to start and expand small businesses, often accompanied by market access. This study has the research problem--whether the micro credit facilitates in empowering women entrepreneurs in the rural areas of Sri Lanka. Therefore, the study has the primary objective to identify the impact of micro credit on empowerment and the sub to assess the relationship among them. The study adopts a causal survey research design through which 337 members of microfinance institutions （MFIs） in the study area of Northern Province in Sri Lanka were selected using stratified random sampling and data collected from them by using a structured questionnaire. Correlation and regression analysis has been used to find out the impact of micro credit facilities on empowerment of women entrepreneurs in the rural areas of Sri Lanka. Linear multiple regression analysis was used to determine the micro credit facilities that affect women empowerment by using SPSS. The model summary indicates that 10.9% of the variation in the women empowerment can be explained for the micro credit facilities and remaining 89.1% influencing by other factors, such as education, experience, income, etc. The study concluded that micro credit facilities alone do not support the entrepreneurs to enhance them and it makes the policy recommendations to guide development of micro credit facilities that are beneficial to the clients and other stakeholders of the MFI institutions.

营商环境优化背景下的信用法治化研究

信用法治化是高水平的社会主义市场经济体制、国家法治化建设的必然要求,是优化营商环境的基础和重要组成部分。当前,各地都面临营商环境和社会信用体系建设的机遇和重大挑战。在市场和政府的双重推动下,我国应实现顶层设计从政策化向法治化的过渡,强化政务诚信、商务诚信,防范信用泛化,加强信用主体权益保护,完善以信用为核心的新型监管机制,强化信用服务机构的培育机制,加强信用环境塑造。完善社会信用法治体系,优化营商环境,实现经济社会的高质量发展。

城市品牌建设如何影响企业家精神——来自文明城市评选的经验证据

城市品牌作为城市的“金字招牌”,在吸引企业家投资的同时,也为培育企业家精神提供了良好的环境和文化滋养。然而,鲜有研究从城市层面关注城市品牌建设对企业家精神的影响。鉴于此,本文基于2008—2020年中国地级市的面板数据,采用多时点双重差分模型,评估城市品牌建设对企业家精神的影响。研究结果表明:(1)城市品牌建设有助于培育企业家精神,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验依然成立;(2)城市品牌建设通过改善商业信用环境、吸引风险投资进一步提升了企业家精神;(3)环境不确定性和财政自主权是城市品牌建设对企业家精神影响的边界条件,当环境不确定性较大或财政自主权较高时,城市品牌建设对企业家精神的正向影响更强;(4)相比于中部地区、小城市和特大城市,城市品牌建设对企业家精神的正向影响在东西部地区、中等城市和大城市更为显著。本研究结论不仅为政府持续推进城市品牌建设提供了理论支持,也为企业家实现事业发展和价值追求提供了借鉴和指导。

绿色信贷对乡村产业振兴的“助推”机制与“三重”困境——基于新型农业经营主体的微观视角

绿色发展是乡村产业的必由之路,而乡村产业振兴依托于新型农业经营主体,亟需绿色金融支持新型农业经营主体振兴乡村产业。绿色信贷作为绿色金融的“主力军”,已延伸至“三农”领域的产业升级、转型与拓展。根据“金融创新→行为引导→产业绿色发展”的逻辑思路,绿色信贷能够发挥资源配置功能,引导新型农业经营主体发展绿色农业、休闲农业和循环农业,继而助推乡村产业“绿色”振兴。其中,绿色信贷通过以下作用机制促进新型农业经营主体向“绿”发展:延伸升级农业产业链,提高农产品附加值;拓展农业产业功能,拓宽收入渠道;创新发展农业绿色技术,提升生产、交易效率。然而,在信贷业务经营的合规性、安全性、盈利性原则下,绿色信贷业务存在“门槛准入”“服务韧性”“产品增量”困境,需要政府部门建立健全绿色信贷政策体系,银行机构提升绿色信贷服务水平,新型农业经营主体带动发展乡村绿色产业,形成兼顾经济效益和生态效益的绿色信贷助推乡村产业振兴的发展格局。

“留抵退税”新政对企业经营绩效分析与政策建议——以医疗制造业上市公司为例

受多种因素的影响,企业作为增值税一般纳税人,由于增值税税制的链条性设计,增值税的进项留抵税额具有客观性和普遍性。为遵循国际通行的做法,2018年以来我国通过实施并扩围增值税增量留抵退税制度,以减少待抵扣进项税额占用企业自有资金问题,2022年又开始实施存量留抵退税政策。为验证该政策对企业经营绩效的实施效果,采用双重差分模型(di d),对92家医疗制造业上市公司的若干主要财务指标进行了实证研究。研究发现,增值税留抵退税对企业的经营业绩有明显地提升作用。因此,留抵退税新政应进一步扩大其实施范围,进而不断提升企业经营绩效,助力实现高质量发展。

超额商誉与商业信用成本:基于风险和内控视角

为厘清超额商誉与商业信用成本间的关系,从供应商与企业间融资成本视角出发,以2014—2021年沪深A股公司为样本,基于信号传递理论,分析超额商誉对商业信用成本的影响机制。研究发现:超额商誉正向影响企业商业信用成本;超额商誉通过加剧企业经营风险,进而增加商业信用成本;较高的内部控制质量对超额商誉与商业信用成本间关系起负向调节作用,且随着内部控制质量的提升,超额商誉加剧经营风险的作用会有所减少,相应其对商业信用成本的正向影响也会减弱;在独立董事比例高、高管股权激励水平高和高管薪酬激励水平低的情形下,超额商誉对商业信用成本的正向影响降低,较高的独董比例和高管股权激励能一定程度缓解超额商誉的负面影响。

绿色信贷对不同类型商业银行绩效影响的测度研究

本文以我国5家国有商业银行、5家全国性股份制商业银行和5家城市商业银行2011—2021年的平衡面板数据为样本进行研究,通过实证分析发现,开展绿色信贷业务会显著降低商业银行整体的盈利水平,且对城市商业银行影响显著,对国有商业银行及全国性股份制商业银行影响较小。研究表明,开展绿色信贷业务会对商业银行整体绩效水平产生影响,并且对不同类型商业银行的绩效水平影响不同,甚至具有一定的滞后性。为了应对绿色信贷政策的调整,本文建议:政府应制定相关差异性绿色信贷激励政策并加强监管落实,银行应拓宽资金来源,调配好绿色信贷期限,加大人才引进力度。

告知承诺制改革进路研究

告知承诺制以事前承诺代替事前审批,合理运用信用监管简化审批流程、规制政府权力、放宽准入门槛和降低制度性交易成本,有助于营造市场化、法治化、国际化和便利化营商环境。目前,我国告知承诺制改革主要围绕行政审批集成化、承诺事项清单化、信用监管体系化等方面进行渐进式试点探索,但在制度体系、信息技术、监管工具、联合奖惩等领域仍存在系统性缺失难题,因此,应加快告知承诺制改革的整体性推进。告知承诺制改革系统整合、整体推进的实现路径主要包括以制度整合完善政策体系、以机制创新深化“一件事”改革、以监管协调保障履约践诺、以责任明晰健全联合奖惩、以主体合作推动多元协同治理等。

企业集团债券集中管理与信用利差

如何有效防范化解债券信用风险是维护国家金融安全和稳定的关键。企业集团对债券发行采取集中管理能否发挥规模优势、实现为债券“增信”,从而更好地降低债券信用风险?本文以2008—2020年A股上市企业集团发行的公司债、企业债和中期票据为样本,实证分析了债券集中管理对债券信用利差的影响。研究发现:债券集中管理能够显著降低信用利差,证实了“收益效应”起主导作用。在考虑内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验后,基本结论仍然成立。进一步地,机制检验发现债券集中管理通过“共同保险效应”与集团声誉的渠道影响债券信用利差;异质性检验发现在民营企业、融资约束较高、母—子公司制度距离较小的公司,以及债券没有担保条款、信用评级较低、承销商声誉较差时,债券集中管理对债券信用利差的抑制作用更强。本文研究阐明了债券集中管理对债券信用利差的影响机理,拓展了内部资本市场和集团负债管理的研究范畴,为企业集团债券发行与信用风险管理提供经验借鉴,亦对于如何化解债券市场信用风险,促进实体经济稳定发展具有一定启示意义。

数字政府、营商环境与“信用辽宁”

数字政府是辽宁省新发展格局的发力点,营商环境是保障实施辽宁全面振兴,建设“信用辽宁”新突破必须下好的先手棋。近年来,随着大数据、云计算、区块链、人工智能等新兴数字技术的蓬勃发展,数字赋能对优化营商环境的作用日益凸显。对数字政府建设与营商环境优化现有研究进行简要的综述,进一步分析数字政府建设与营商环境优化工作的紧密耦合,提出促进辽宁数字政府建设、营商环境优化以及社会信用体系建设的相关对策,以期通过数字政府建设、营商环境优化以及社会信用体系建设更好地推动辽宁经济健康发展,助推辽宁全面振兴。

我国五大商业银行绿色信贷对盈利能力的影响研究

绿色信贷业务已成为商业银行重要的信贷业务,环境因素开始被纳入其审核及评估范围。在此背景下,绿色信贷业务对商业银行盈利能力的影响关乎其落实绿色信贷政策的积极性。基于此,本文围绕绿色信贷业务对银行盈利能力的影响展开研究。本文选取我国五家具有代表性的国有商业银行2007—2021年的绿色信贷相关数据,并使用STATA20.0进行多元回归分析。实证结果显示,绿色信贷比和我国五大商业银行的盈利能力呈正相关,目前绿色信贷业务给我国五大行带来的盈利增幅较低。最后,本文分别从政府层面和商业银行层面提出推进绿色信贷发展的对策建议,以供参考。

企业社会声誉、经营风险与商业信用融资

组织的社会声誉事关企业间的交易和信用关系,是构建企业动态竞争优势、推动企业高质量发展的重要推手。以2009—2021年A股上市公司为研究对象,实证探讨了企业社会声誉对其商业信用融资的影响,以及经营风险的中介传导效应。研究结果表明,企业社会声誉与商业信用融资之间存在显著的正相关关系,即企业社会声誉越高,其获取商业信用融资的能力越强,经营风险水平在企业社会声誉影响商业信用融资的过程中起到了中介传导效应,表明企业社会声誉的提高会降低其经营风险,进而促进其商业信用融资。进一步研究发现,不同的产权性质、企业规模对企业社会声誉与商业信用融资之间关系的影响存在差异。研究结果对于保障企业及时获取融资,推动企业长足稳定发展具有重要参考价值。

“双积分”政策对新能源车企发展影响实证研究

发展新能源汽车是我国汽车产业转型升级、实现高质量发展的战略选择。随着我国政府对新能源汽车补贴的“退坡”,为持续推动新能源汽车产业的发展,“双积分”政策应运而生。文章应用双重差分模型,选取16家A股新能源汽车上市企业为样本,研究“双积分”政策的实施对企业技术创新以及经营绩效的影响。研究结果表明:“双积分”政策的实施既有助于新能源车企进行实质性的技术创新,又能够显著提升其经营绩效。

绿色信贷对商业银行经营绩效的影响研究

为了激发商业银行发展绿色金融的热情,有必要探究绿色信贷对其绩效的影响,以推动绿色信贷体系的健康发展。本文使用我国20家主要商业银行(包括工商银行、建设银行、农业银行等)在2014-2022年度的面板数据,进行了实证研究。为确保企业经营绩效的全面性和准确性,本文综合考虑企业盈利和安全两个方面,对商业银行的经营绩效进行评价,并运用面板数据个体固定效应模型,探究绿色信贷对其经营绩效的影响。绿色信贷对于商业银行而言,不仅能够提升企业声誉和社会责任感,同时也会对银行的经营方向带来一系列挑战。随着绿色信贷比例的上升,银行资产质量得到改善,资本充足率降低,不良贷款率升高,这说明商业银行的资产结构正在发生改变,信贷管理更加精细化。随着绿色信贷所占比例的提高,银行的风险抵御能力将逐渐减弱,从而导致其经营风险的上升。

农商银行个人贷款业务风险因素及防范措施

伴随着中国经济发展持续增长,我国农商银行个人贷款服务也在逐步扩大,其具有较高的收益和相对低的风险水平,且产品的种类及服务的多元化也为该项业务的发展提供了动力。然而,就整体状况而言,目前对个人贷款的管理仍处于初级阶段。本文旨在通过对农商银行个人贷款业务现状的深入分析,揭示其管理中存在的问题,并提出优化策略,以期提升个人贷款管理的效率和质量,推动银行业务的进一步发展。