This study describes the spatial and temporal variation of a drought index and makes inferences regarding the environmental factors that influence this variability in the Hengduan Mountains. A drought index is typical...This study describes the spatial and temporal variation of a drought index and makes inferences regarding the environmental factors that influence this variability in the Hengduan Mountains. A drought index is typically used to determine the moisture conditions and the magnitude of water deficiency in a given area. Based on data from 26 meteorological stations over the period 1960-2012, the spatial and temporal variations of the drought index were analyzed using a thin plate smoothing splines method that considered elevation as a covariate. The drought index was estimated based on the potential evapotranspiration(E0) as defined by the Penman Monteith model modified by FAO(1998). The results of the reported analysis showed that the drought index in the Hengduan Mountains has been decreasing since 1960 at a rate of-0.008/a. This represented a progressive shift from the "sub-humid" class, which typified the wider area in the Hengduan Mountains, toward the "humid" class, which appeared in the Hengduan Mountains areas. The drought index was relatively high in the north and low in the south and the variation of the drought index varied with seasons. The drought index showed increasing trends in summer and autumn and it is greater in autumn than in summer, while it showed a decreasing trend in spring and winter. Drought index is inversely proportional to the soil relative humidity and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).展开更多
In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2...In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.展开更多
In many applications a heterogeneous population consists of several subpopulations. When each subpopulation can be adequately modeled by a heteroscedastic single-index model, the whole population is characterized by a...In many applications a heterogeneous population consists of several subpopulations. When each subpopulation can be adequately modeled by a heteroscedastic single-index model, the whole population is characterized by a finite mixture of heteroscedastic single-index models. In this article, we propose an estimation algorithm for fitting this model, and discuss the implementation in detail. Simulation studies are used to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm, and a real example is used to illustrate the application of the model.展开更多
We present the analysis of three independent and most widely used image smoothing techniques on a new fractional based convolution edge detector originally constructed by same authors for image edge analysis. The impl...We present the analysis of three independent and most widely used image smoothing techniques on a new fractional based convolution edge detector originally constructed by same authors for image edge analysis. The implementation was done using only Gaussian function as its smoothing function based on predefined assumptions and therefore did not scale well for some types of edges and noise. The experiments conducted on this mask using known images with realistic geometry suggested the need for image smoothing adaptation to obtain a more optimal performance. In this paper, we use the structural similarity index measure and show that the adaptation technique for choosing smoothing function has significant advantages over a single function implementation. The new adaptive fractional based convolution mask can smoothly find edges of various types in detail quite significantly. The method can now trap both local discontinuities in intensity and its derivatives as well as locating Dirac edges.展开更多
基金support for this research of Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2016T90961, 2015M570864)Openended fund of State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (SKLCSOP-2014-11)+2 种基金Project of Northwest Normal University (China) Young Teachers Scientific Research Ability Promotion Plan (NWNU-LKQN13-10)Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (41271133, 41273010, 41361106, 41261104)Project of Major National Research Projects of China (No. 2013CBA01808)
文摘This study describes the spatial and temporal variation of a drought index and makes inferences regarding the environmental factors that influence this variability in the Hengduan Mountains. A drought index is typically used to determine the moisture conditions and the magnitude of water deficiency in a given area. Based on data from 26 meteorological stations over the period 1960-2012, the spatial and temporal variations of the drought index were analyzed using a thin plate smoothing splines method that considered elevation as a covariate. The drought index was estimated based on the potential evapotranspiration(E0) as defined by the Penman Monteith model modified by FAO(1998). The results of the reported analysis showed that the drought index in the Hengduan Mountains has been decreasing since 1960 at a rate of-0.008/a. This represented a progressive shift from the "sub-humid" class, which typified the wider area in the Hengduan Mountains, toward the "humid" class, which appeared in the Hengduan Mountains areas. The drought index was relatively high in the north and low in the south and the variation of the drought index varied with seasons. The drought index showed increasing trends in summer and autumn and it is greater in autumn than in summer, while it showed a decreasing trend in spring and winter. Drought index is inversely proportional to the soil relative humidity and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).
文摘In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.
文摘In many applications a heterogeneous population consists of several subpopulations. When each subpopulation can be adequately modeled by a heteroscedastic single-index model, the whole population is characterized by a finite mixture of heteroscedastic single-index models. In this article, we propose an estimation algorithm for fitting this model, and discuss the implementation in detail. Simulation studies are used to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm, and a real example is used to illustrate the application of the model.
文摘We present the analysis of three independent and most widely used image smoothing techniques on a new fractional based convolution edge detector originally constructed by same authors for image edge analysis. The implementation was done using only Gaussian function as its smoothing function based on predefined assumptions and therefore did not scale well for some types of edges and noise. The experiments conducted on this mask using known images with realistic geometry suggested the need for image smoothing adaptation to obtain a more optimal performance. In this paper, we use the structural similarity index measure and show that the adaptation technique for choosing smoothing function has significant advantages over a single function implementation. The new adaptive fractional based convolution mask can smoothly find edges of various types in detail quite significantly. The method can now trap both local discontinuities in intensity and its derivatives as well as locating Dirac edges.
