Changes in Spring Snow Cover over the Eastern and Western Tibetan Plateau and Their Associated Mechanism

The spring snow cover(SC)over the western Tibetan Plateau(TP)(TPSC)(W_TPSC)and eastern TPSC(E_TPSC)have displayed remarkable decreasing and increasing trends,respectively,during 1985–2020.The current work investigates the possible mechanisms accounting for these distinct TPSC changes.Our results indicate that the decrease in W_TPSC is primarily attributed to rising temperatures,while the increase in E_TPSC is closely linked to enhanced precipitation.Local circulation analysis shows that the essential system responsible for the TPSC changes is a significant anticyclonic system centered over the northwestern TP.The anomalous descending motion and adiabatic heating linked to this anticyclone leads to warmer temperatures and consequent snowmelt over the western TP.Conversely,anomalous easterly winds along the southern flank of this anticyclone serve to transport additional moisture from the North Pacific,leading to an increase in snowfall over the eastern TP.Further analysis reveals that the anomalous anticyclone is associated with an atmospheric wave pattern that originates from upstream regions.Springtime warming of the subtropical North Atlantic(NA)sea surface temperature(SST)induces an atmospheric pattern resembling a wave train that travels eastward across the Eurasian continent before reaching the TP.Furthermore,the decline in winter sea ice(SIC)over the Barents Sea exerts a persistent warming influence on the atmosphere,inducing an anomalous atmospheric circulation that propagates southeastward and strengthens the northwest TP anticyclone in spring.Additionally,an enhancement of subtropical stationary waves has resulted in significant increases in easterly moisture fluxes over the coastal areas of East Asia,which further promotes more snowfall over eastern TP.

Distribution of winter-spring snow over the Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with summer precipitationin Yangtze River

The distribution of winter-spring snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） and its relationship with summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley （MLYRV） during 2003-2013 have been investigated with the moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer （MODIS） Terra data （MOD10A2） and precipitation observations. Results show that snow cover percentage （SCP） remains approximately 20% in winter and spring then tails off to below 5% with warmer temperature and snow melt in summer. The lower and highest percentages present a declining tendency while the middle SCP exhibits an opposite variation. The maximum value appears from the middle of October to March and the minimum emerges from July to August. The annual and winter-spring SCPs present a decreasing tendency. Snow cover is mainly situated in the periphery of the plateau and mountainous regions, and less snow in the interior of the plateau, basin and valley areas in view of snow cover frequency （SCF） over the TP. Whatever annual or winter-spring snow cover, they all have remarkable declining tendency during 2003-2013, and annual snow cover presents a decreasing trend in the interior of the TP and increasing trend in the periphery of the TP. Hie multi-year averaged eight-day SCP is negatively related to mean precipitation in the MLYRV. Spring SCP is negatively related to summer precipitation while winter SCP is positively related to summer precipitation in most parts of the MLYRV. Hence, the influence of winter snow cover on precipitation is much more significant than that in spring on the basis of correlation analysis. The oscillation of SCF from southeast to northwest over the TP corresponds well to the beginning,development and cessation of the rain belt in eastern China.

Influence of October Eurasian Snow on Winter Temperature over Northeast China

This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between October Eurasian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The snow cover located in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal plays an important role in the winter air temperature anomaly. More （less） eastern Siberia snow in October can cause an atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern in which the atmospheric pressure is higher （lower） than normal in the polar region and lower （higher） in the northern mid-high latitudes. Due to the persistence of the eastern Siberia snow from October to the following winter, the winter atmospheric anomaly is favorable （unfavorable） to the widespread movement of cold air masses from the polar region toward the northern mid-high latitudes and, hence, lower （higher） temperature over Northeast China. Simultaneously, when the October snow cover is more （less）, the SST in the northwestern Pacific is continuously lower （higher） as a whole; then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced （weakened）, favoring the lower （higher） temperature over Northeast China.

Persistent Variations in the East Asian Trough from March to April and the Possible Mechanism

The East Asian trough(EAT)profoundly influences the East Asian spring climate.In this study,the relationship of the EATs among the three spring months is investigated.Correlation analysis shows that the variation in March EAT is closely related to that of April EAT.Extended empirical orthogonal function(EEOF)analysis also confirms the co-variation of the March and April EATs.The positive/negative EEOF1 features the persistent strengthened/weakened EAT from March to April.Further investigation indicates that the variations in EEOF1 are related to a dipole sea surface temperature(SST)pattern over the North Atlantic and the SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean.The dipole SST pattern over the North Atlantic,with one center east of Newfoundland Island and another east of Bermuda,could trigger a Rossby wave train to influence the EAT in March−April.The SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean can change the Walker circulation and influence the atmospheric circulation over the tropical western Pacific,subsequently impacting the southern part of the EAT in March−April.Besides the SST factors,the Northeast Asian snow cover could change the regional thermal conditions and lead to persistent EAT anomalies from March to April.These three impact factors are generally independent of each other,jointly explaining large variations in the EAT EEOF1.Moreover,the signals of the three factors could be traced back to February,consequently providing a potential prediction source for the EAT variation in March and April.

Study on the extremely cold winter of 1670 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in the winter of 1670 were extracted from Chinese historical documents. By these records, the winter temperature anomalies （compared to the mean of 1961-1990） recorded at seven meteorological stations and the regional mean winter temperature were estimated. The results show that： （1） There was an average of about 30 snow-cover days over the MLRYR region in 1670, ranging from 11-20 days in Shanghai and eastern Zhejiang to 5140 days in eastern Hunan Province. The snow-cover days averaged about 40 days in Anqing and Nan- cheng, and ranged from 30 to 40 days in Quzhou, Jingdezhen, and Nanchang; and （2） the regional mean winter temperature in 1670 was estimated to be approximately 4.0 ℃ lower than that of 1961-1990. The maximum negative anomaly of 5.6℃ occurred in Nanchang and the minimum anomaly of-2.8 ℃ was detected in Quzhou. Both of these were lower than that of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period of 1951-2010. This research could not only provide a method to es- timate historical climate extremes, but also provide a background to understand the recent instrumentally climate extremes.

Immediate and legacy effects of snow exclusion on soil fungal diversity and community composition

Background:Soil fungi play crucial roles in ecosystem functions.However,how snow cover change associated with winter warming affects soil fungal communities remains unclear in the Tibetan forest.Methods:We conducted a snow manipulation experiment to explore immediate and legacy effects of snow exclusion on soil fungal community diversity and composition in a spruce forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.Soil fungal communities were performed by the high throughput sequencing of gene-fragments.Results:Ascomycota and Basidiomycota were the two dominant fungal phyla and Archaeorhizomyces,Aspergillus and Amanita were the three most common genera across seasons and snow manipulations.Snow exclusion did not affect the diversity and structure of soil fungal community in both snow-covered and snow-free seasons.However,the relative abundance of some fungal communities was different among seasons.Soil fungal groups were correlated with environmental factors(i.e.,temperature and moisture)and soil biochemical variables(i.e.,ammonium and enzyme).Conclusions:These results suggest that the season-driven variations had stronger impacts on soil fungal community than short-term snow cover change.Such findings may have important implications for soil microbial processes in Tibetan forests experiencing significant decreases in snowfall.

Relationship Between Winter Snow Cover Days in Northeast China and Rainfall near the Yangtze River Basin in the Following Summer

Based on observed snow and precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the relationship between the number of winter snow cover days in Northeast China and the following summer＇s rainfall in the northern part of southern China is analyzed and the possible underlying mechanisms are discussed. The results indicate that a negative relationship is significant throughout the study period, especially more obvious after the 1980s. The pre-winter circulation patterns in years with more snow cover days and less summer rainfall in the south bank of the Yangtze River are almost the same. In years with more snow cover days, lower temperatures at the lower level over Northeast China are found in winter and spring. The winter monsoon is weaker and retreats later in these years than in those with fewer snow cover days. In spring of years with more snow cover days, anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed over Northeast China, and anomalous northerly wind is found in eastern China. In summer of these years, anomalous northeasterly wind at the lower level is found from the area south of the Yangtze River to the East China Sea and Yellow Sea; and with less southwesterly water vapor transport, the rainfall in the area south of the Yangtze River is less than normal, and the opposite patterns are true in years with fewer snow cover days. In recent years, the stable relationship between winter snow cover in Northeast China and summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin can be used for summer rainfall prediction. The results are of great importance to short-term climate prediction for summer rainfall.

RESPONSE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION TO WINTER SNOW COVER ANOMALY

In this paper,the response of the atmospheric general circulation to winter anomalous snow cover was investigated through observations studies and model simulation. Results from the observations show that:(1)the anomalous winter snow cover in the extratropics of Eurasian Continent bears an intimate relation to the contemporary atmospheric general circulation.The positive anomaly of winter snow cover is usually accompanied by positive atmospheric EUP teleconnection pattern and stronger East Asian winter monsoon:or vice versa. (2)The linkage between them suggests that the abnormal winter snow cover has an important impact on winter atmospheric general circulation.The anomalous snow cover pattern can lead to the anomaly of winter atmospheric EUP teleconnection pattern and thus influence East Asian Winter monsoon. With NCAR CCM2 including BATS land surface scheme,three groups of experiments were performed to examine the atmospheric response to the anomalous snow cover pattern and explore the relevant mechanism.Simulated results agree well with the observations,which testify the significant response of the atmosphere to snow cover anomaly.It is found that the radiative cooling induced by anomalous snow cover plays an important role in above processes,and the feedback of long-wave radiation can not be neglected.

青藏高原积雪资料分析及其与我国夏季降水的关系

该文对青藏高原地面站雪深（１９５８～１９９２年）、ＮＯＡＡ卫星观测的积雪面积（１９６６～１９９０年）和美国宇航局微波遥感积雪水当量（１９７９～１９８７年）等资料进行了对比分析，指出青藏高原地面站雪深资料能较好地反映青藏高原地区积雪量的年际变化．青藏高原地面站前冬春积雪量与我国夏季降水的相关分析表明：青藏高原前冬春积雪量的变化与我国夏季降水有很好的相关，显著水平平均达到０．０５．７、８两月长江流域为正相关区，其南北两侧为两大片负相关区；９月整个相关区系统地南移约５个纬距；４、５两月长江以南，尤其东南沿海附近为正相关区，长江以北为负相关区；６月转变为７月相关型，但显著水平较低．

冬季高原积雪和欧亚积雪对我国夏季旱涝不同影响关系的环流特征分析

冬季高原积雪和欧亚积雪异常对我国夏季旱涝有一定的影响作用，但是它们与我国夏季降水的相关分布基本上是相反的。通过冬季积雪与北半球 ５００ ｈＰａ高度场的相关分析，从春季和夏季平均环流场对前期冬季高原积雪和欧亚积雪异常的不同响应，来探讨冬季高原积雪和欧亚积雪与我国夏季降水不同相关关系的原因，也为积雪因子在我国汛期旱涝预测中的应用提供一定的物理基础。

中国地区冬季积雪遥感监测方法改进

该文概述了卫星遥感积雪监测原理,介绍了积雪判识方法,对国家卫星气象中心已有的业务化极轨气象卫星冬季旬积雪监测算法和流程进行了改进。经过比对,设计了新的可见光太阳天顶角订正模式,针对NOAA-16／AVHRR3和FY-1D／MVISR重新确定了积雪判识变量及相应的动态积雪检测阈值,提出了概率积雪判识方法,结合多光谱阈值法建立了概率结合阈值(Probability Combined with Threshold,PCT)的积雪判识方法,并以该算法为基础建立了新的业务化积雪动态遥感监测系统。同时,用新算法对部分历史产品重新做了处理,并简要分析了1996至2003年中国地区冬季积雪分布特征。

欧亚积雪异常分布对冬季大气环流的影响 II.数值模拟

基于观测分析的结果 ,采用NCARCCM2模式 ,设计了三组数值试验方案 ,研究了积雪的异常分布对冬季大气环流的影响及其可能的物理过程。结果表明 ,数值模拟与观测分析所得结果一致 ,冬季积雪的异常分布 ,通过积雪的辐射冷却效应 ,可以改变地表的热状况以及地表对大气加热的异常 ,引起大气温度、位势高度场的调整 ,激发冬季大气EUP遥相关型 。

ENSO与青藏高原积雪的关系及其对我国夏季降水异常的影响

文章利用1979 2005年Nino3区海温时间序列资料和中国雪深时间序列资料,分析了Nino3区海温与青藏高原积雪之间的关系,两者对我国夏季降水的影响以及两者共同作用下对我国夏季降水的影响。分析结果表明:当前期冬春季Nino3区SST为强暖(强冷)事件与高原积雪显著偏多(显著偏少)共同作用的配置下,我国东部夏季雨带往往偏南(偏北)。从月时间尺度方面,揭示了前期冬春季ENSO和冬春季青藏高原积雪对我国长江以南地区降水异常的影响在夏季各月是不一致的,前期冬春季逐月Nino3区SST和冬春季逐月高原积雪对长江以南地区6月的降水都为正相关,而对8月的降水都为反相关,并且春季逐月Nino3区SST和冬春季逐月高原积雪对长江以南地区7月的降水也都为正相关,另外,春季Nino3区SST和春季高原积雪对长江以南地区6月和7月降水更为重要。

青藏高原冬春季积雪异常与西南地区夏季降水的关系

选取1961-2007年青藏高原冬、春季积雪日数资料和西南地区夏季降水资料,对高原积雪和降水作奇异值分解(SVD)分析.结果表明:冬春季高原积雪对西南地区夏季旱涝有重要的影响.冬、春季高原积雪的不同分布将造成后期西南地区夏季降水分布出现差异.西南地区夏季降水对冬季高原积雪异常最敏感的区域主要是四川东北部、重庆、西藏中西部,对春季积雪异常最敏感的区域主要位于四川东部、重庆、贵州东北部,以及西藏中东部.与降水敏感区相对应的冬季高原积雪分布的关键区是西藏中西部和青海中南部至四川西北部地区,春季则转变为西藏西部和青海部分地区.总的来说,冬季高原积雪的异常变化比春季对西南地区夏季降水的影响更为明显.因此,前期青藏高原积雪是西南地区夏季降水预测中的一个重要信号,对夏季西南地区降水有一定的指示和预测意义;冬季高原积雪日数尤其具有预报指示意义,可作为一个重要的预测指标.

气候变化背景下新疆北部2009/2010年冬季雪灾

利用新疆北部43个气象观测站资料,引用异常气候事件和极端气候事件的判别标准,定量分析了2009/2010年冬季新疆北部的异常气候特征,总结了这一阶段的降水、气温的极端事件特征。分析表明,新疆北部2009/2010年冬季降水量大,积雪厚,积雪时间长,气温变化幅度大,多种表征降水和积雪的气象要素突破历史极值;极端事件发生频次高、范围广,极端冷事件与暖事件并存。在全球气候变暖的大尺度背景下出现降雪如此大、积雪如此厚、灾害如此重的极端气候事件,在新疆实属罕见,这也凸显了极端气候事件的多元性和复杂性。

中国冬季多种积雪参数的时空特征及差异性

利用1979～2006年冬季中国站点最大雪深和站点雪日、卫星遥感雪深、积雪覆盖率和雪水当量5种积雪资料，从多角度深入细致地分析了我国冬季积雪的时空变化特征。结果表明：5种积雪资料的经验正交分解第一模态都表现为中国南、北方反位相的特征，即当新疆和东北三省-内蒙古地区积雪偏多（少）时，青藏高原和南方地区积雪偏少（多）。新疆和东北三省-内蒙古地区的雪深、积雪覆盖率和雪日随时间有逐渐增多的趋势，而其中边缘山区的雪水当量表现出减少的趋势，青藏高原地区的积雪表现出与其完全相反的特征。南方地区站点最大雪深和雪日表现出随时间减少的趋势，卫星遥感难以监测到该区积雪。相比较而言，卫星遥感资料比较适合高原和山区缺少气象站的地区及北半球更大区域积雪的研究，而站点资料更适用于中国中东部和平原地区积雪的区域研究。雪深、雪日、积雪覆盖率和雪水当量这些多样性积雪参数存在一定的差异性，因此5种积雪资料结合使用才能得到更准确的结论。

中国东部冬季温度异常偶极型模态的一个前兆信号

利用中国160站逐月温度、NCEP再分析、NOAA-CIRES 20世纪再分析以及NOAA海表温度等资料,分析了中国东部（100°E以东地区）冬季温度年际变化的主要模态,并重点研究了其中第2模态（即偶极型模态）的成因机理和前期信号.同时,也以2012～2013年冬季为例,探讨了这一温度异常模态的预测方法.研究主要发现：除中国东部大范围一致偏冷或偏暖模态以外,110°E以东的北方地区偏冷（暖）还经常对应着华南和110°E以西地区的偏暖（冷）,构成温度异常反向变化的偶极型模态.这种偶极型模态也是冬季气候变化的一个主要模态,2012～2013年冬季温度异常即属于这一模态.中国东部冬季温度一致型模态主要与前期秋季中东太平洋海温异常、亚洲大陆北部积雪,及其邻近的北冰洋地区海冰密集度异常联系紧密.而对于偶极型模态,海温的影响并不明显,前期秋季的东亚中纬度地区积雪、北冰洋斯瓦尔巴群岛、法兰士约瑟夫地群岛附近海域的海冰密集度异常,以及它们引起的表面温度异常分布可能具有重要贡献,其中北冰洋海冰密集度异常导致的该地区表面温度异常的影响可能更为重要.综合了海冰和积雪信号的前期秋季北冰洋—东亚温度差异（Arctic Ocean-East Asian temperaturecontrast,简称AE）指数与中国东部冬季温度异常偶极型模态具有显著联系,可以作为一个重要的预测因子.2012年秋季赤道中东太平洋海温的正常状态以及北冰洋暖异常和东亚中纬度地区冷异常的表面温度分布特征,都不利于中国东部冬季温度南北一致型异常的发生,而是有利于偶极型异常分布.利用AE指数可以有效地预测2012～2013年中国东部冬季温度异常特征.

青藏高原冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水关系的进一步分析

为了进一步分析青藏高原 (下称高原 )冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水的关系 ,利用 1 957～ 1 994年高原地区的实测雪深、1 951～ 1 994年 6～ 8月中国东部地区 2 2 6个均匀分布测站的实测月降水量 ,以及美国国家环境监测中心 /国家大气研究中心 (NCEP/NCAR) 1 958～ 1 994年 1～ 1 2月的再分析格点值资料 ,对比分析了高原冬、春季多、少雪年后期中国东部地区夏季 (6～ 8月 )降水分布和环流的平均特征 ,也分析了高原积雪影响的机理。分析结果表明 :1 )平均来说 ,多雪年夏季长江及江南北部降水可偏多 1～ 2成 ,华北和华南的降水则偏少1～ 3成 ;少雪年夏季江淮流域及湘、黔地区少雨 ,华北和华南多雨。 2 )高原冬、春积雪不仅影响了后期高原的热状况 ,而且影响了后期东亚大气环流的季节变化和南亚与东亚的夏季风环流。

青藏高原东部及东侧地区低值系统与高原积雪的相关研究

在普查青藏高原东部1960—1998年6～8月700hPa天气图上低值系统出现次数的基础上,将其进行多种组合,将组合的资料与青藏高原冬春积雪资料进行同步相关分析,再将通过显著性水平α=0.01检验的几组资料,用墨西哥帽子波进行计算。对比这些不同时间尺度的子波系数,得到了一些有益的结果,它反映出低值系统与高原积雪间有密切关系。

青藏高原春季积雪多、少年中低层环流对比分析

利用青藏高原(下称高原)68个气象测站1961-2007年逐日积雪观测资料,分析了高原春季积雪日数变化及其异常偏多、偏少年的环流特征,还深入分析了春季积雪的多少对北半球夏季环流的影响。结果表明,在高原春季积雪日数偏多、少年,在500 hPa高度场上欧亚(东半球)地区中高纬度虽然均表现为两槽一脊的环流形势,但积雪日数偏多、少年槽脊的位置和强弱明显不同。同期春季,当高原春季积雪日数偏多(少)时,500 hPa环流场上冰岛低压偏强(弱)、蒙古高压偏强(弱)、印度低压偏弱(强)。高原春季积雪与夏季北半球的主要大气活动中心和影响中国夏季气候的主要大气环流系统之间存在紧密联系,当高原春季积雪日数偏多(少)时,夏季500 hPa环流场上东亚地区易(不易)形成阻塞高压,同时西太平洋副热带高压易(不易)偏南。这种关系说明高原春季积雪有一定前兆意义,对中国短期气候预测有重要的指示意义。