Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surr...Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,RegCM4.The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events.RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of overestimation.For the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part.All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the TP.Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP.Notably,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP.Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the TP.The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.展开更多
This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical mechanisms.The first EOF mode(EOF1)...This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical mechanisms.The first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North Atlantic.Increased sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the CSP.Anomalous increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall frequency.In contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during winter.In the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit snowfall.The NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.展开更多
Increasing the urban tree cover percentage(TCP) is widely recognized as an efficient way to mitigate the urban heat island effect. The cooling efficiency of urban trees can be either enhanced or attenuated on hotter d...Increasing the urban tree cover percentage(TCP) is widely recognized as an efficient way to mitigate the urban heat island effect. The cooling efficiency of urban trees can be either enhanced or attenuated on hotter days, depending on the physiological response of urban trees to rising ambient temperature. However, the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature remains poorly quantified for China's cities. In this study, we quantify the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature at noontime [~1330 LT(local time), LT=UTC+8] in 17summers(June, July, and August) from 2003–19 in 70 economically developed cities of China based on satellite observations. The results show that urban trees have stronger cooling efficiency with increasing temperature, suggesting additional cooling benefits provided by urban trees on hotter days. The enhanced cooling efficiency values of urban trees range from 0.002 to 0.055℃ %-1 per 1℃ increase in temperature across the selected cities, with larger values for the lowTCP-level cities. The response is also regulated by background temperature and precipitation, as the additional cooling benefit tends to be larger in warmer and wetter cities at the same TCP level. The positive response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature is explained mainly by the stronger evapotranspiration of urban trees on hotter days.These results have important implications for alleviating urban heat risk by utilizing urban trees, particularly considering that extreme hot days are becoming more frequent in cities under global warming.展开更多
The impact of sea surface temperature(SST)on winter haze in Guangdong province(WHDGD)was analyzed on the interannual scale.It was pointed out that the northern Indian Ocean and the northwest Pacific SST play a leading...The impact of sea surface temperature(SST)on winter haze in Guangdong province(WHDGD)was analyzed on the interannual scale.It was pointed out that the northern Indian Ocean and the northwest Pacific SST play a leading role in the variation of WHDGD.Cold(warm)SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific stimulate the eastward propagation of cold(warm)Kelvin waves through the Gill forced response,causing Ekman convergence(divergence)in the western Pacific,inducing abnormal cyclonic(anticyclonic)circulation.It excites the positive(negative)Western Pacific teleconnection pattern(WP),which results in the temperature and the precipitation decrease(increase)in Guangdong and forms the meteorological variables conditions that are conducive(not conducive)to the formation of haze.ENSO has an asymmetric influence on WHDGD.In El Niño(La Niña)winters,there are strong(weak)coordinated variations between the northern Indian Ocean,the northwest Pacific,and the eastern Pacific,which stimulate the negative(positive)phase of WP teleconnection.In El Niño winters,the enhanced moisture is attributed to the joint effects of the horizontal advection from the surrounding ocean,vertical advection from the moisture convergence,and the increased atmospheric apparent moisture sink(Q2)from soil evaporation.The weakening of the atmospheric apparent heat source(Q1)in the upper layer is not conducive to the formation of inversion stratification.In contrast,in La Niña winters,the reduced moisture is attributed to the reduced upward water vapor transport and Q2 loss.Due to the Q1 increase in the upper layer,the temperature inversion forms and suppresses the diffusion of haze.展开更多
Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this r...Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved challenge.Based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over China,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern China(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is defined.The simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over Eurasia.In tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for SWC-EHDs.They are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central Asia.Using these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is predictable.This study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern China.展开更多
To fully exploit the rich characteristic variation laws of an integrated energy system(IES)and further improve the short-term load-forecasting accuracy,a load-forecasting method is proposed for an IES based on LSTM an...To fully exploit the rich characteristic variation laws of an integrated energy system(IES)and further improve the short-term load-forecasting accuracy,a load-forecasting method is proposed for an IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features.Feature expansion was performed to construct a comprehensive load day covering the load and meteorological information with coarse and fine time granularity,far and near time periods.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM)was used to divide the scene of the comprehensive load day,and gray correlation analysis was used to match the scene with the coarse time granularity characteristics of the day to be forecasted.Five typical days with the highest correlation with the day to be predicted in the scene were selected to construct a“dynamic similar day”by weighting.The key features of adjacent days and dynamic similar days were used to forecast multi-loads with fine time granularity using LSTM.Comparing the static features as input and the selection method of similar days based on non-extended single features,the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method was verified.展开更多
Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of cl...Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of climate change on Frost-free days in winter is distinctive. The average annual temperature is going upward but the extreme increase is in the winter temperature. Winter average temperature is going up by about 2˚C. However, extreme daily minimum temperature is going up by more than 3˚C. This climate effect has a great impact on the nature of precipitation and length of frost-free days. The snowfall over winter months is decreasing and the rainfall is increasing. However, the number of frost-free days during late fall months, early winter months, late winter months and early spring months are increasing. This result reveals an increase in length of the growing season. This research focuses on the effect of change in climatic variables on Frost-free days in Southern Ontario. Therefore, special attention should be given to the effect of change in climate Frost-free conditions on length of crop growing in winter season for potential investigation.展开更多
The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH)days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health.This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reason...The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH)days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health.This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty problem.The findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations,indicating a significant upward trend.Additionally,DH events were observed to occur frequently.The number of DH days increased during 1970-1990,decreased from 1991 to 1997,and stayed stable after 1997.The key climate factors affecting the interannual variability of the number of DH days were the Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)in spring and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM).Compared with the negative phase of IOBW,in the positive phase of IOBW,500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height enhanced,the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and extended abnormally to the west,more solar radiation reached the surface,surface outgoing longwave radiation increased,and there was an anomalous anticyclone in eastern South China.The atmospheric circulation characteristics of the positive and negative phases of ESAM were opposite to those of IOBW,and the abnormal circulation of the positive(negative)phases of ESAM was unfavorable(favorable)for the increase in the number of DH days.A long-term prediction model for the number of summer DH days was established using multiple linear regression,incorporating the key climate factors.The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of DH days was 0.65,and the root-mean-square error was 2.8.In addition,independent forecasts for 2019 showed a deviation of just 1 day.The results of the independent recovery test confirmed the stability of the model,providing evidence that climatic factors did have an impact on DH days in South China.展开更多
The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the causes and the effects of stillbirth on the number of days open and cow herd survival in subsequent lactation of Holstein Friesian cows. A total of 1371 calvi...The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the causes and the effects of stillbirth on the number of days open and cow herd survival in subsequent lactation of Holstein Friesian cows. A total of 1371 calvings from research dairy farm were used. Stillbirth in calves was defined as the death of a fetus before or during calving at full term (≥270 days of gestation) or within 24 hours after calving. During the period from January 2006 to December 2017 a percent of 95.04% of the calvings were with live calves, and 4.96% of the calvings were stillbirths. The major causes of stillbirth identified were: calving difficulty, parity of the cows, and sex of the calves at calving. A five point scale was used to assess calving difficulties, and numbers 1, 2 and 3 were considered unassisted calvings and number 4 and 5 as assisted. The twin calvings were not taken into account. Days open were measured as days from first calving to conception, and cow herd survival from first calving to culling or death. Trend test and multivariate data analysis were used. The findings revealed that primiparous cows were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with multiparous cows. Cows that were at calving male calves were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with cows that had female calves at calving. Also, cows with assisted calving were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with cows with unassisted calvings. Cows with stillbirths had a increase mean of days open with 32 days. Cow herd survival was better in the cows with live calves at calving compared with the cows that had stillbirth at calvings.展开更多
Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Micaps data and ground observation data, the physical characteristics of a heavy snowfall process in eastern Yunnan from January 31 to February 3, 2022 were analyzed. The results sh...Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Micaps data and ground observation data, the physical characteristics of a heavy snowfall process in eastern Yunnan from January 31 to February 3, 2022 were analyzed. The results show that the circulation background of the heavy snowfall process was "north-ridge and south-trough" type, and the cold air accumulated in the deep East Asian transverse trough. The cold advection behind the trough moved southwards into eastern Yunnan under the movement of the transverse trough. The establishment of upper and lower air jet provided abundant water vapor, and the snowfall area coincided with the strong water vapor convergence area. The strong cold center near the ground was maintained, and the cold air moved southwards. As a result, the cold pad was lasting and deep, and the ground temperature was 0 ℃ or below, which was conducive to snow accumulation on the ground. Seen from the spatial distribution of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature, the low layer always had certain warm and wet conditions during the heavy snowfall, which was conducive to the establishment of unstable energy. The snowfall occurred near the θ se steep area and the warm and wet unstable area. The vertical distribution of temperature had a good indication of precipitation form. The upper layer was controlled by strong cold advection, while the middle and lower troposphere was controlled by warm advection, and there was a warm inversion layer, which was conducive to the transformation of ice crystals into snowflakes, so that ice crystals fell to the ground in the form of snowflakes.展开更多
Sikkim Himalaya hosts critical water resources such as glacial,rain,and snow-fed springs and lakes.Climate change is adversely affecting these resources in various ways,and elevation-dependent warming is prominent amo...Sikkim Himalaya hosts critical water resources such as glacial,rain,and snow-fed springs and lakes.Climate change is adversely affecting these resources in various ways,and elevation-dependent warming is prominent among them.This study is a discussion of the elevation-dependent warming(EDW),snowfall shift,and precipitation variability over Sikkim Himalaya using a high-resolution ERA5-land dataset.Furthermore,the findings show that the Sikkim Himalaya region is experiencing a warming trend from south to north.The majority of the Sikkim Himalayan region shows a declining trend in snowfall.A positive advancement in snowfall trend(at a rate of 1 mm per decade)has been noticed above 4500 meters.The S/P ratio indicates a shift in snowfall patterns,moving from lower elevations to much higher regions.This suggests that snowfall has also transitioned from Lachung and Lachen(3600 m)to higher elevated areas.Moreover,the seasonal shifting of snowfall in the recent decade is seen from January-March(JFM)to February-April(FMA).Subsequently,the preceding 21 years are being marked by a significant spatiotemporal change in temperature,precipitation,and snowfall.The potent negative correlation coefficient between temperature and snowfall(–0.9),temperature and S/P ratio(–0.5)suggested the changing nature of snowfall from solid to liquid,which further resulted in increased lower elevation precipitation.The entire Sikkim region is transitioning from a cold-dry to a warm-wet weather pattern.In the climate change scenario,a drop in the S/P ratio with altitude will continue to explain the rise in temperature over mountainous regions.展开更多
本文采用ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)模式数据、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、降雪加密观测和常规资料,对2022年初的5次降雪过...本文采用ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)模式数据、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、降雪加密观测和常规资料,对2022年初的5次降雪过程进行对比分析,发现5次降雪过程均为雨转雪过程,且持续时间相对较短,平原为雨夹雪或小雪到中雪,山区中到大雪,局部暴雪,数值模式预报的积雪深度与实况相差甚远;大尺度环流形势为500 hPa中低纬南支槽或弱波动配合700 hPa上的暖湿气流和中低层冷空气,造成边界层浅薄的冷垫上温度骤降而在短时间内形成降雪;相较于平原地区,高山区上空温度层结与最大上升运动中心的配置,有利于降雪粒子较长时间维持在有利于枝状雪花的形成区域,且高山区云底云水含量显著偏低、整层温度足够低,故高山区更利于暴雪的形成。展开更多
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA2006040102]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42175037].
文摘Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,RegCM4.The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events.RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of overestimation.For the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part.All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the TP.Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP.Notably,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP.Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the TP.The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41991283).
文摘This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical mechanisms.The first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North Atlantic.Increased sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the CSP.Anomalous increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall frequency.In contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during winter.In the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit snowfall.The NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. BK20240170)Open fund by Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control (KHK2203)+2 种基金the Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau Youth Fund (KQ202314)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2024300330)Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘Increasing the urban tree cover percentage(TCP) is widely recognized as an efficient way to mitigate the urban heat island effect. The cooling efficiency of urban trees can be either enhanced or attenuated on hotter days, depending on the physiological response of urban trees to rising ambient temperature. However, the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature remains poorly quantified for China's cities. In this study, we quantify the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature at noontime [~1330 LT(local time), LT=UTC+8] in 17summers(June, July, and August) from 2003–19 in 70 economically developed cities of China based on satellite observations. The results show that urban trees have stronger cooling efficiency with increasing temperature, suggesting additional cooling benefits provided by urban trees on hotter days. The enhanced cooling efficiency values of urban trees range from 0.002 to 0.055℃ %-1 per 1℃ increase in temperature across the selected cities, with larger values for the lowTCP-level cities. The response is also regulated by background temperature and precipitation, as the additional cooling benefit tends to be larger in warmer and wetter cities at the same TCP level. The positive response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature is explained mainly by the stronger evapotranspiration of urban trees on hotter days.These results have important implications for alleviating urban heat risk by utilizing urban trees, particularly considering that extreme hot days are becoming more frequent in cities under global warming.
基金Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2019A1515011808)Science and Technology Planning Program of Guangdong Province(2021B1212020016)。
文摘The impact of sea surface temperature(SST)on winter haze in Guangdong province(WHDGD)was analyzed on the interannual scale.It was pointed out that the northern Indian Ocean and the northwest Pacific SST play a leading role in the variation of WHDGD.Cold(warm)SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific stimulate the eastward propagation of cold(warm)Kelvin waves through the Gill forced response,causing Ekman convergence(divergence)in the western Pacific,inducing abnormal cyclonic(anticyclonic)circulation.It excites the positive(negative)Western Pacific teleconnection pattern(WP),which results in the temperature and the precipitation decrease(increase)in Guangdong and forms the meteorological variables conditions that are conducive(not conducive)to the formation of haze.ENSO has an asymmetric influence on WHDGD.In El Niño(La Niña)winters,there are strong(weak)coordinated variations between the northern Indian Ocean,the northwest Pacific,and the eastern Pacific,which stimulate the negative(positive)phase of WP teleconnection.In El Niño winters,the enhanced moisture is attributed to the joint effects of the horizontal advection from the surrounding ocean,vertical advection from the moisture convergence,and the increased atmospheric apparent moisture sink(Q2)from soil evaporation.The weakening of the atmospheric apparent heat source(Q1)in the upper layer is not conducive to the formation of inversion stratification.In contrast,in La Niña winters,the reduced moisture is attributed to the reduced upward water vapor transport and Q2 loss.Due to the Q1 increase in the upper layer,the temperature inversion forms and suppresses the diffusion of haze.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 42175033)the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology。
文摘Extreme high temperatures frequently occur in southwestern China,significantly impacting the local ecological system and economic development.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days(EHDs)in this region is still an unresolved challenge.Based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHDs over China,a domain-averaged EHD index over southwestern China(SWC-EHDs)during April-May is defined.The simultaneous dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with the increased SWC-EHDs are a local upper-level anticyclonic(high-pressure)anomaly and wavy geopotential height anomaly patterns over Eurasia.In tracing the origins of the lower boundary anomalies,two physically meaningful precursors are detected for SWC-EHDs.They are the tripolar SST change tendency from December-January to February-March in the northern Atlantic and the February-March mean snow depth in central Asia.Using these two selected predictors,a physics-based empirical model prediction was applied to the training period of 1961–2005 to obtain a skillful prediction of the EHDs index,attaining a correlation coefficient of 0.76 in the independent prediction period(2006–19),suggesting that 58%of the total SWC-EHDs variability is predictable.This study provides an estimate for the lower bound of the seasonal predictability of EHDs as well as for the hydrological drought over southwestern China.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(62103126).
文摘To fully exploit the rich characteristic variation laws of an integrated energy system(IES)and further improve the short-term load-forecasting accuracy,a load-forecasting method is proposed for an IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features.Feature expansion was performed to construct a comprehensive load day covering the load and meteorological information with coarse and fine time granularity,far and near time periods.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM)was used to divide the scene of the comprehensive load day,and gray correlation analysis was used to match the scene with the coarse time granularity characteristics of the day to be forecasted.Five typical days with the highest correlation with the day to be predicted in the scene were selected to construct a“dynamic similar day”by weighting.The key features of adjacent days and dynamic similar days were used to forecast multi-loads with fine time granularity using LSTM.Comparing the static features as input and the selection method of similar days based on non-extended single features,the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method was verified.
文摘Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of climate change on Frost-free days in winter is distinctive. The average annual temperature is going upward but the extreme increase is in the winter temperature. Winter average temperature is going up by about 2˚C. However, extreme daily minimum temperature is going up by more than 3˚C. This climate effect has a great impact on the nature of precipitation and length of frost-free days. The snowfall over winter months is decreasing and the rainfall is increasing. However, the number of frost-free days during late fall months, early winter months, late winter months and early spring months are increasing. This result reveals an increase in length of the growing season. This research focuses on the effect of change in climatic variables on Frost-free days in Southern Ontario. Therefore, special attention should be given to the effect of change in climate Frost-free conditions on length of crop growing in winter season for potential investigation.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(92044302,41805115)Guangzhou Municipal Science and Technology Project(202002020065)。
文摘The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH)days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health.This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty problem.The findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations,indicating a significant upward trend.Additionally,DH events were observed to occur frequently.The number of DH days increased during 1970-1990,decreased from 1991 to 1997,and stayed stable after 1997.The key climate factors affecting the interannual variability of the number of DH days were the Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)in spring and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM).Compared with the negative phase of IOBW,in the positive phase of IOBW,500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height enhanced,the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and extended abnormally to the west,more solar radiation reached the surface,surface outgoing longwave radiation increased,and there was an anomalous anticyclone in eastern South China.The atmospheric circulation characteristics of the positive and negative phases of ESAM were opposite to those of IOBW,and the abnormal circulation of the positive(negative)phases of ESAM was unfavorable(favorable)for the increase in the number of DH days.A long-term prediction model for the number of summer DH days was established using multiple linear regression,incorporating the key climate factors.The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of DH days was 0.65,and the root-mean-square error was 2.8.In addition,independent forecasts for 2019 showed a deviation of just 1 day.The results of the independent recovery test confirmed the stability of the model,providing evidence that climatic factors did have an impact on DH days in South China.
文摘The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the causes and the effects of stillbirth on the number of days open and cow herd survival in subsequent lactation of Holstein Friesian cows. A total of 1371 calvings from research dairy farm were used. Stillbirth in calves was defined as the death of a fetus before or during calving at full term (≥270 days of gestation) or within 24 hours after calving. During the period from January 2006 to December 2017 a percent of 95.04% of the calvings were with live calves, and 4.96% of the calvings were stillbirths. The major causes of stillbirth identified were: calving difficulty, parity of the cows, and sex of the calves at calving. A five point scale was used to assess calving difficulties, and numbers 1, 2 and 3 were considered unassisted calvings and number 4 and 5 as assisted. The twin calvings were not taken into account. Days open were measured as days from first calving to conception, and cow herd survival from first calving to culling or death. Trend test and multivariate data analysis were used. The findings revealed that primiparous cows were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with multiparous cows. Cows that were at calving male calves were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with cows that had female calves at calving. Also, cows with assisted calving were at higher risk of having stillbirths compared with cows with unassisted calvings. Cows with stillbirths had a increase mean of days open with 32 days. Cow herd survival was better in the cows with live calves at calving compared with the cows that had stillbirth at calvings.
基金Supported by the Project of Meteorological Science and Technology Innovation and Capacity Improvement Program for Young Scholars of Basic Stations in Yunnan(STIAP202210).
文摘Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Micaps data and ground observation data, the physical characteristics of a heavy snowfall process in eastern Yunnan from January 31 to February 3, 2022 were analyzed. The results show that the circulation background of the heavy snowfall process was "north-ridge and south-trough" type, and the cold air accumulated in the deep East Asian transverse trough. The cold advection behind the trough moved southwards into eastern Yunnan under the movement of the transverse trough. The establishment of upper and lower air jet provided abundant water vapor, and the snowfall area coincided with the strong water vapor convergence area. The strong cold center near the ground was maintained, and the cold air moved southwards. As a result, the cold pad was lasting and deep, and the ground temperature was 0 ℃ or below, which was conducive to snow accumulation on the ground. Seen from the spatial distribution of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature, the low layer always had certain warm and wet conditions during the heavy snowfall, which was conducive to the establishment of unstable energy. The snowfall occurred near the θ se steep area and the warm and wet unstable area. The vertical distribution of temperature had a good indication of precipitation form. The upper layer was controlled by strong cold advection, while the middle and lower troposphere was controlled by warm advection, and there was a warm inversion layer, which was conducive to the transformation of ice crystals into snowflakes, so that ice crystals fell to the ground in the form of snowflakes.
文摘Sikkim Himalaya hosts critical water resources such as glacial,rain,and snow-fed springs and lakes.Climate change is adversely affecting these resources in various ways,and elevation-dependent warming is prominent among them.This study is a discussion of the elevation-dependent warming(EDW),snowfall shift,and precipitation variability over Sikkim Himalaya using a high-resolution ERA5-land dataset.Furthermore,the findings show that the Sikkim Himalaya region is experiencing a warming trend from south to north.The majority of the Sikkim Himalayan region shows a declining trend in snowfall.A positive advancement in snowfall trend(at a rate of 1 mm per decade)has been noticed above 4500 meters.The S/P ratio indicates a shift in snowfall patterns,moving from lower elevations to much higher regions.This suggests that snowfall has also transitioned from Lachung and Lachen(3600 m)to higher elevated areas.Moreover,the seasonal shifting of snowfall in the recent decade is seen from January-March(JFM)to February-April(FMA).Subsequently,the preceding 21 years are being marked by a significant spatiotemporal change in temperature,precipitation,and snowfall.The potent negative correlation coefficient between temperature and snowfall(–0.9),temperature and S/P ratio(–0.5)suggested the changing nature of snowfall from solid to liquid,which further resulted in increased lower elevation precipitation.The entire Sikkim region is transitioning from a cold-dry to a warm-wet weather pattern.In the climate change scenario,a drop in the S/P ratio with altitude will continue to explain the rise in temperature over mountainous regions.
文摘本文采用ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)模式数据、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、降雪加密观测和常规资料,对2022年初的5次降雪过程进行对比分析,发现5次降雪过程均为雨转雪过程,且持续时间相对较短,平原为雨夹雪或小雪到中雪,山区中到大雪,局部暴雪,数值模式预报的积雪深度与实况相差甚远;大尺度环流形势为500 hPa中低纬南支槽或弱波动配合700 hPa上的暖湿气流和中低层冷空气,造成边界层浅薄的冷垫上温度骤降而在短时间内形成降雪;相较于平原地区,高山区上空温度层结与最大上升运动中心的配置,有利于降雪粒子较长时间维持在有利于枝状雪花的形成区域,且高山区云底云水含量显著偏低、整层温度足够低,故高山区更利于暴雪的形成。