Sikkim Himalaya hosts critical water resources such as glacial,rain,and snow-fed springs and lakes.Climate change is adversely affecting these resources in various ways,and elevation-dependent warming is prominent amo...Sikkim Himalaya hosts critical water resources such as glacial,rain,and snow-fed springs and lakes.Climate change is adversely affecting these resources in various ways,and elevation-dependent warming is prominent among them.This study is a discussion of the elevation-dependent warming(EDW),snowfall shift,and precipitation variability over Sikkim Himalaya using a high-resolution ERA5-land dataset.Furthermore,the findings show that the Sikkim Himalaya region is experiencing a warming trend from south to north.The majority of the Sikkim Himalayan region shows a declining trend in snowfall.A positive advancement in snowfall trend(at a rate of 1 mm per decade)has been noticed above 4500 meters.The S/P ratio indicates a shift in snowfall patterns,moving from lower elevations to much higher regions.This suggests that snowfall has also transitioned from Lachung and Lachen(3600 m)to higher elevated areas.Moreover,the seasonal shifting of snowfall in the recent decade is seen from January-March(JFM)to February-April(FMA).Subsequently,the preceding 21 years are being marked by a significant spatiotemporal change in temperature,precipitation,and snowfall.The potent negative correlation coefficient between temperature and snowfall(–0.9),temperature and S/P ratio(–0.5)suggested the changing nature of snowfall from solid to liquid,which further resulted in increased lower elevation precipitation.The entire Sikkim region is transitioning from a cold-dry to a warm-wet weather pattern.In the climate change scenario,a drop in the S/P ratio with altitude will continue to explain the rise in temperature over mountainous regions.展开更多
本文采用ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)模式数据、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、降雪加密观测和常规资料,对2022年初的5次降雪过...本文采用ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)模式数据、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、降雪加密观测和常规资料,对2022年初的5次降雪过程进行对比分析,发现5次降雪过程均为雨转雪过程,且持续时间相对较短,平原为雨夹雪或小雪到中雪,山区中到大雪,局部暴雪,数值模式预报的积雪深度与实况相差甚远;大尺度环流形势为500 hPa中低纬南支槽或弱波动配合700 hPa上的暖湿气流和中低层冷空气,造成边界层浅薄的冷垫上温度骤降而在短时间内形成降雪;相较于平原地区,高山区上空温度层结与最大上升运动中心的配置,有利于降雪粒子较长时间维持在有利于枝状雪花的形成区域,且高山区云底云水含量显著偏低、整层温度足够低,故高山区更利于暴雪的形成。展开更多
On the basis of two gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, and meteorological station data released by the National Meteorological Information Ce...On the basis of two gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, and meteorological station data released by the National Meteorological Information Center （NMIC） during 1961-2013, the spatial and temporal variations of total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and snowfall/rainfall ratio （S/R） in the Tibetan Plateau （TP） are analyzed using Sen＇s slope, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, Inverse Distance Weighting （IDW） and the Morlet wavelet. Total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall generally show statistically significant increasing trends of 0.6 mm·a^-1 and 1.3 mm·a^-1, respectively, while amount of snowfall and SIR have significant decreasing trends of-0.6 mm·a^-1 and -0.5% a^-1, respectively. In most regions, due to significant increasing trends in total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall, and significant decreasing trends in amount of snowfall, SIR shows a decreasing trend in the TP. Abrupt changes in total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are detected for 2005, 2004, 1996 and 1998, respectively. Total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and SIR are concentrated in cycles of approximately 5 years, 10 years, 16 years and 20 years, respectively. The trend magnitudes for total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall all show decreasing-to-increasing trends with elevation, while amount of snowfall and SIR show decreasing trends.展开更多
文摘Sikkim Himalaya hosts critical water resources such as glacial,rain,and snow-fed springs and lakes.Climate change is adversely affecting these resources in various ways,and elevation-dependent warming is prominent among them.This study is a discussion of the elevation-dependent warming(EDW),snowfall shift,and precipitation variability over Sikkim Himalaya using a high-resolution ERA5-land dataset.Furthermore,the findings show that the Sikkim Himalaya region is experiencing a warming trend from south to north.The majority of the Sikkim Himalayan region shows a declining trend in snowfall.A positive advancement in snowfall trend(at a rate of 1 mm per decade)has been noticed above 4500 meters.The S/P ratio indicates a shift in snowfall patterns,moving from lower elevations to much higher regions.This suggests that snowfall has also transitioned from Lachung and Lachen(3600 m)to higher elevated areas.Moreover,the seasonal shifting of snowfall in the recent decade is seen from January-March(JFM)to February-April(FMA).Subsequently,the preceding 21 years are being marked by a significant spatiotemporal change in temperature,precipitation,and snowfall.The potent negative correlation coefficient between temperature and snowfall(–0.9),temperature and S/P ratio(–0.5)suggested the changing nature of snowfall from solid to liquid,which further resulted in increased lower elevation precipitation.The entire Sikkim region is transitioning from a cold-dry to a warm-wet weather pattern.In the climate change scenario,a drop in the S/P ratio with altitude will continue to explain the rise in temperature over mountainous regions.
文摘本文采用ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)模式数据、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、降雪加密观测和常规资料,对2022年初的5次降雪过程进行对比分析,发现5次降雪过程均为雨转雪过程,且持续时间相对较短,平原为雨夹雪或小雪到中雪,山区中到大雪,局部暴雪,数值模式预报的积雪深度与实况相差甚远;大尺度环流形势为500 hPa中低纬南支槽或弱波动配合700 hPa上的暖湿气流和中低层冷空气,造成边界层浅薄的冷垫上温度骤降而在短时间内形成降雪;相较于平原地区,高山区上空温度层结与最大上升运动中心的配置,有利于降雪粒子较长时间维持在有利于枝状雪花的形成区域,且高山区云底云水含量显著偏低、整层温度足够低,故高山区更利于暴雪的形成。
基金National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program),No.2013CBA01801National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41461003,No.41161012
文摘On the basis of two gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, and meteorological station data released by the National Meteorological Information Center （NMIC） during 1961-2013, the spatial and temporal variations of total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and snowfall/rainfall ratio （S/R） in the Tibetan Plateau （TP） are analyzed using Sen＇s slope, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, Inverse Distance Weighting （IDW） and the Morlet wavelet. Total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall generally show statistically significant increasing trends of 0.6 mm·a^-1 and 1.3 mm·a^-1, respectively, while amount of snowfall and SIR have significant decreasing trends of-0.6 mm·a^-1 and -0.5% a^-1, respectively. In most regions, due to significant increasing trends in total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall, and significant decreasing trends in amount of snowfall, SIR shows a decreasing trend in the TP. Abrupt changes in total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are detected for 2005, 2004, 1996 and 1998, respectively. Total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and SIR are concentrated in cycles of approximately 5 years, 10 years, 16 years and 20 years, respectively. The trend magnitudes for total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall all show decreasing-to-increasing trends with elevation, while amount of snowfall and SIR show decreasing trends.
