Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Children＇s Problem Behaviors During Free Time as an Incentive for the Increase in Social Risks and Health Risks

Since children, as a rule, have more free time than adults, it is adults＇ responsibility to provide children with a chance to spend the time of relaxation, play, and fun in a beneficial way. Unfortunately, children＇s spare time is nowadays very frequently organized for the sake of brushing up children＇s knowledge, skills, and competences, which is accomplished by means of escalating extra-curriculum activities. When expressed by teacher and parents, these ambition-related attitudes pave the way for the disappearance of children＇s personal interests and motivations to perform complicated tasks which are perceived as unwanted or obscure by the affected children themselves. This form of adults＇ behavior may lead to the feelings of frustration, stress, demotivation, or rebellion on behalf of their children. The said emotional states, especially in relation to the lack of spontaneous play, give rise to serious psychic dysfunctions, and the instability of children＇s psychic balance. It may also pave the way for various forms of destructive behavior that mostly characterize children of younger school age who are about to start schooling.

Biological Trajectory for Psychosocial Risk Factors in Psychiatric Disorders—A Concept Based Review

Current understanding of mental disorders is based upon “biopsychosocial model”. Research also suggests what biological changes take place in a particular disorder as well as nature of risk which arises from psychological, social and environmental conditions. However it remains unclear how these psychosocial and environmental risk factors interact with biological factors which lead to clinical syndromes. This paper examines interrelationship of psychosocial and environmental risk and biological changes observed in mental disorders and tries to identify the possibility of a pathway of the psychopathology of psychiatric disorders. The review aims to demonstrate that significant advances in the fields of psychosocial, cultural, anthropological and neurobiological research provide novel insights into the etiology of mental disorders. There are neurochemical, functional and structural neurobiological, neurocognitive, immunological findings and findings from gene-environment interaction that appears promising. However these findings are in an isolated manner. Comprehensive studies examining major biological changes together in relation to psychosocial risk factors are lacking. Every individual reacts differently to the same environmental risk while there tends to be similarities in individual outcome in response to such stressors. The findings though robust independently, remain very preliminary to suggest a sequential trajectory for developing a clear pathway for pathogenesis. It is currently unclear whether there is a differential psychopathological impact of psychosocial stressors in different cultures despite the extensive variability both between and within major social groups and societies. Further research investigating modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors in context of prevailing socio-economic conditions is urgently needed to plan effective interventions.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Education from Social Disciplinary Theoretical Perspectives

Disaster is a social phenomenon. The occurrence and impacts of disasters including the education sector can be studied through a social problem lens. This paper draws meaning and understanding of DRR education using the sociological disciplinary framework in a detailed qualitative case study of three schools as they responded to the devastating Gorakha earthquake in 2015 and other disasters in Nepal. This paper considers the three sub-disciplines of sociology: the sociology of disaster, the sociology of education and the sociology of education governance in a development context. These sub-disciplines are nested together to analyse social, political and historical factors and their relationships which are helpful to identify risks and vulnerabilities in the education sector in Nepal. These are the major areas to explore the disaster context and needs of context-specific education acts (hereafter DRR education) to minimise the potential risks of disasters. The article concludes that the social disciplinary framework is significantly useful to analyse DRR education provisions and implications of education governance to mobilise school in disaster preparedness, response and recovery.

Are social embeddedness associated with food risk perception under media coverage?

Traceability system has received wide attention in solving food safety issues, via which food information could be tracked back to producer/farmers. Consumers need to obtain this information from producers or social networks, trust in the information,and consequently assess perceived risks, especially when food scandals are exposed to the media. In this study, we introduce the social embeddedness theory to understand how consumers’ social activities affect their risk perceptions on traceable food. Specifically, we investigate how risk perceptions are predicted by the interpersonal relationships, organizational level and social-level relationships. Results show that the interpersonal relationships were associated with lower levels of risk perceptions, while organizational and social relationships impacted consumer’s risk perceptions at middle and higher levels,respectively. Results also show that the "ripple effect" extended to effect of risk events with negative information, however,did not exist for the group exposed to positive information. Potential food safety implications have been proposed to identify for effective risk mitigation under media coverages.

预付式消费政府平台法律监管的治理路径

为应对预付式消费给传统监管体系提出的挑战,一些地方政府利用信息化、互联化的优势,探索建立统一的互联网监管平台。这些平台存在着备案参与度低、平台风险警示制度缺乏互联互通等困境,究其根源是由于政府管控型监管理念与风险预防逻辑不适应;监管权力配置模式过于僵化;制度规范滞后于监管需求;监管工具的创新性不足。为治理上述困境,亟需从政府管控监管理念转换为多元协同监管理念;构建“部门协同、社会共担”的监管权力配置格局;健全“风险预防、程序保障”为导向的监管规范体系;创新监管工具以提高风险预防的精准性等四个方面的改革路径,为治理政府主导型预付式消费互联网平台的监管困境提供思路。

大学生社交媒体信息安全风险感知影响因素

文章提出社交媒体信息安全风险感知影响因素关系假设,以大学生社交媒体用户群体为研究对象,通过问卷调研风险感知现状,在构建结构方程模型的基础上对问卷数据进行了模型验证和中介效应检验。研究发现:大学生社交媒体信息安全风险感知程度的城乡间差距明显,其面对信息安全风险主要采用系统式处理;媒体信任度、社会群体归属感、卷入认知会对系统式处理产生影响,知识和信息有效性会对启发式-系统式处理产生影响;系统式处理在知识、媒体信任度、社会群体归属感、卷入认知、信息有效性和风险感知之间起完全中介效应,负面情绪直接正向影响风险感知。

人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响——基于CHFS数据的实证研究

改革开放以来,中国经历了大规模的人口迁移,形成了庞大的流动人口群体,对经济社会各个领域产生了深刻的影响,也在一定程度上改变了居民的家庭金融资产配置结构。利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2017和2019年两期数据,实证分析了人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响。研究发现:人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置具有显著的正向促进效应,在使用工具变量法处理内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验之后结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,人口流动对50岁以上的户主家庭和城市居民家庭的风险金融资产配置促进作用更大;同时,人口流动通过影响家庭的社会互动和风险偏好,进而提升家庭的风险金融资产配置水平。鉴于已有文献鲜有从人口流动视角研究家庭风险金融资产配置问题,研究结论丰富了相关文献,同时也为政府相关部门优化人口流动机制、拓宽居民投资渠道提供了理论依据。

基于系统动力学的我国社会重大风险仿真研究

基于系统动力学模型,构建社会重大风险系统因果关系图和流图,运用综合指数法对社会重大风险进行预警分析,并对子系统引起的社会重大风险进行仿真预测以监测我国社会重大风险。结果表明:宏观经济、生态环境及社会治理三个子系统监测预警综合值变化较小,趋势比较平稳,社会重大风险监测预警综合指数整体上呈现出小幅上升的趋势。因此,为防范化解我国的社会重大风险,政府应通过提升常规风险与突发事件应急管理机制精确度,加强社会重大风险的制度化控制,打好防范化解社会重大风险的基础。

Risk and Response of China Overseas Hydropower Projects--A Vision of Corporate Social Responsibility

Recent years, with the quickening of global economic integration and the rapid development of our country, more and more Chinese enterprises begin to implement internationalization strategy and actively develop overseas business. However, the internationalized process of Chinese enterprises is not progressing smoothly. The paper systematically analyzes the risks of China overseas hydropower projects from two aspects： international environment risks and internal risks of hydropower enterprises and points out that effectively fulfilling corporate social responsibility by using Guidance on Social Responsibility （ISO26000） could help Chinese hydropower enterprises to deal with overseas risks. In order to help Chinese hydropower enterprises to improve the CSR （Corporate Social Responsibility） implementation level, the paper integrates the characteristics of hydropower enterprises with the core subjects of ISO26000, examines the key problems on the CSR work of Chinese hydropower enterprises according to requirements of ISO26000 and puts forward effective advices.

劳动者创业与多层次社会保险需求——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证研究

采用2013—2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证检验自主创业对多层次社会保险需求的影响。研究发现:个体进行自主创业后的多层次社会保险需求会显著提高,增加幅度平均为3.29个百分点。相比于受雇个体,年龄在45~59岁且收入处于中等水平的发展型创业个体具有更高的多层次社会保险需求。在保险类型上,自主创业个体对多层次养老保险的需求最高,而对多层次医疗保险的需求较低。自主创业个体还会提高其家人的多层次社会保险需求,配置顺序依次是青壮年、老年人和儿童。

中国在中东欧国家投资的风险及防范对策研究

中国与中东欧国家建立了跨区域合作机制。中国在中东欧国家的投资面临政治风险、社会风险和法律风险。政治风险包括中东欧国家的政府稳定性风险、外交风险和战争风险。社会风险包括中东欧国家对华负面舆论的风险、暴力性群体事件的风险和劳工风险。法律风险包括中东欧国家接受欧盟法律制约的风险、严格执行合同的风险和严格执行环保法的风险。我们需要加强风险防范。我国要建立境外投资和境外经贸合作园区的风险防范的工作体系;要针对政治风险、社会风险和法律风险分别采取不同的防范措施。

新时代农村重大社会风险治理的动员机制与生成逻辑

社会动员能够在短期内最大程度上整合治理资源,成为中国应对复杂问题的重要方式。农村重大社会风险治理关键在于形成强有力的社会动员机制。新时代农村重大社会风险治理实践中,动员网络、动员方式、主体互动机制都呈现诸多新变化,既发挥党组织的组织优势,又发挥政府的专业化优势,同时根据治理情境变化,能动性调整动员策略,最大程度激活体制内外各种力量参与,是党政统合的社会整合动员机制。党政统合的社会整合动员机制有其内生逻辑,它是执政党基因、公共权力基因、公益基因、社会责任基因等多元基因融合的结果,是新时代中国特色社会主义社会动员机制的新呈现。

我国地方高校校园安全治理中大学生参与机制

随着校园安全治理复杂性和不确定性的增加,亟须从风险沟通面向加强大学生参与机制的整体融入。通过构建大学生参与机制的六维风险沟通新分析框架,发现我国地方高校校园安全治理中大学生参与机制存在理念薄弱性、主体碎片化、路径科层化、内容有限性、手段单一化、效果应急化等困境。上述困境的生成机制涉及理念错位、主体利益桎梏、官僚制路径依赖、维稳隐性驱动、手段“内卷化”、配套制度不充分。为此,可通过预防性参与理念、整体型参与主体、网络化参与路径、充分型参与内容、复合式参与手段、制度性参与效果的“六位一体”再造,实现对大学生参与机制困境的风险沟通治理。

社区团购农产品供应链的风险识别与风险网络结构分析——以淘菜菜为例

社区团购农产品供应链风险网络复杂,增加了风险防范的难度。准确识别风险因素,厘清风险外溢路径,对建立与完善社区团购农产品供应链风险管理体系和维持行业健康发展具有重要意义。以电商平台淘菜菜为案例,使用扎根理论及社会网络分析等方法,探究社区团购农产品供应链的风险,构建风险网络,评估风险关联程度,找出风险外溢路径。研究发现:在社区团购农产品供应链的风险网络中,物流方的履约交付、物流方的运输损耗、物流方的节点周转、平台的人员服务、平台的供应链计划、平台的采购交付是关键风险节点,有较强的风险影响能力。风险网络可根据风险节点间的关联程度划分为四个板块,四个板块间存在“溢出—影响—再溢出”的风险外溢路径。当某一风险节点出现问题时,与其隶属同一利益相关者或同一风险范畴的风险节点将会进一步放大风险外溢。鉴于此,找出社区团购农产品供应链的关键风险和外溢路径,有针对性地加强风险管理,强化路径监控,降低关键风险的影响,增强供应链的抗风险能力,可促进社区团购电商平台的可持续发展。

中国共产党百余年来应对重大风险的经验及当代价值

重大风险是事物内在矛盾的具体体现,中国共产党百余年来成功应对了许多重大风险,取得了举世瞩目的巨大成就。回顾党的百余年历程,面对革命风险,以坚定理想信念为核心,树立刚强意志不屈拼搏;面对政治风险,以服务广大人民为导向,秉承建党初心合理决策;面对经济风险,以科学理论为指导,及时部署全面顶层设计;面对自然风险,以团结一致为向心力,发挥党民一心伟大力量。在全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程中,深刻梳理我党科学应对重大风险形成的系统经验,可赋能建设社会主义现代化强国、落实中国特色社会主义政治目标、助力实现经济高质量发展方略、推进社会主义治理共同体建构。

融合贝叶斯优化随机森林的机场旅客风险评估研究

为科学有效地评价旅客风险,提高旅客出行便捷性,以机场离港旅客为研究对象,借助旅客姓名记录获取评价旅客风险的相关信息,结合旅客安检信息,编制问卷进行调查。运用SPSS 22.0软件对有效问卷数据进行合理性检验,构建民航旅客风险评价指标体系;在此基础上,利用贝叶斯优化随机森林模型对旅客风险等级进行综合评价。结果表明:在影响旅客风险等级划分的8个指标中,年飞行次数和托运行李违禁品记录重要性最大,性别重要性最小;相较于多种传统的算法,贝叶斯优化随机森林的分类性能更高,准确率达到97%。研究结果对机场实施旅客分类安检具有一定的指导作用。

共同股东网络降低了银行风险承担吗?

论文基于2017—2021年中国92家商业银行样本数据,以银行通过前十大股东所形成的共同股东网络为研究视角,考察了共同股东网络对银行风险承担的影响。研究发现:第一,共同股东网络中心度的提升可以降低银行风险承担,即程度中心度、接近中心度及特征向量中心度越高,越能降低银行风险承担,这一结果在多方面的稳定性检验和内生性处理后依然显著成立。第二,机制分析表明,共同股东网络中心度提升可以通过发挥信息效应、资源效应和声誉效应这三条渠道来降低银行风险承担。第三,异质性分析发现,从市场化水平差异来看,市场化水平越低,网络中心度的提升对于降低银行风险承担效应越显著;从经济政策不确定性差异来看,经济政策不确定性越高,网络中心度的提升对于降低银行风险承担效应越显著。因此,为银行降低风险承担提供了社会网络这一全新视角,也为相关部门制定银行体系发展战略提供了一定参考。

基于SNA的大型工程项目关键利益相关者和社会稳定风险因素识别

大型工程项目关乎国计民生、影响深远,在多种因素的作用下易引发社会稳定风险,甚至可能引发更深层次的社会危机,为识别出大型工程项目的关键利益相关者和社会稳定风险因素,大型工程项目社会稳定风险研究势在必行。首先,收集61个大型工程项目社会稳定风险事件。然后,通过共现的方法得到“利益相关者-社会稳定风险因素”2-模网络,将数据导入Netdraw软件中,形成可视化的利益相关者-社会稳定风险因素关系网络图,并利用社会网络分析软件Ucinet计算2-模网络的度数中心度。最后,将2-模网络转化为2个1-模网络(利益相关者关系网络/社会稳定风险因素关系网络),识别出大型工程项目的关键利益相关者和社会稳定风险因素。研究结果表明:“利益相关者-社会稳定风险”2-模网络整体密度较高,大型工程项目中社会稳定风险因素和利益相关者关系密切,S6政府部门-R2环境安全风险与S8当地居民-R2环境安全风险是需重点关注的关系;大型工程项目中社会稳定风险中的关键利益相关者是业主、承包商、政府部门、当地居民、网络媒体;关键社会稳定风险因素是环境安全风险、决策信息公开不充分、公众参与不足、应对行为不当、社会舆情。研究成果为大型工程项目社会稳定风险研究提供新的视角,有助于提高大型工程项目管理者的风险认知水平,为管理者决策提供理论依据。

虚拟数字人的传播风险与社会行动者治理

虚拟数字人日益嵌入社会结构当中,加剧当下社会的媒介化程度,在其迅速应用于内容生产领域的同时,还出现了内容失当和传播伦理等问题。虚拟数字人是非人之物(non-human),但该场景中的社会行动者——中之人既是自然人,又为内容把关模式的创新提供一个可行的视角。中之人被视为法律责任的主体之一,作为新型把关主体,其隐匿于后台,把关的创新体现在主体、对象、策略和价值引导等方面,呈现出中介化和弥散化的特点,相关主体性的建构还需与主流文化同频共振,以求把关主体的价值观和“善治”有机融合。