Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Biological Trajectory for Psychosocial Risk Factors in Psychiatric Disorders—A Concept Based Review

Current understanding of mental disorders is based upon “biopsychosocial model”. Research also suggests what biological changes take place in a particular disorder as well as nature of risk which arises from psychological, social and environmental conditions. However it remains unclear how these psychosocial and environmental risk factors interact with biological factors which lead to clinical syndromes. This paper examines interrelationship of psychosocial and environmental risk and biological changes observed in mental disorders and tries to identify the possibility of a pathway of the psychopathology of psychiatric disorders. The review aims to demonstrate that significant advances in the fields of psychosocial, cultural, anthropological and neurobiological research provide novel insights into the etiology of mental disorders. There are neurochemical, functional and structural neurobiological, neurocognitive, immunological findings and findings from gene-environment interaction that appears promising. However these findings are in an isolated manner. Comprehensive studies examining major biological changes together in relation to psychosocial risk factors are lacking. Every individual reacts differently to the same environmental risk while there tends to be similarities in individual outcome in response to such stressors. The findings though robust independently, remain very preliminary to suggest a sequential trajectory for developing a clear pathway for pathogenesis. It is currently unclear whether there is a differential psychopathological impact of psychosocial stressors in different cultures despite the extensive variability both between and within major social groups and societies. Further research investigating modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors in context of prevailing socio-economic conditions is urgently needed to plan effective interventions.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Education from Social Disciplinary Theoretical Perspectives

Disaster is a social phenomenon. The occurrence and impacts of disasters including the education sector can be studied through a social problem lens. This paper draws meaning and understanding of DRR education using the sociological disciplinary framework in a detailed qualitative case study of three schools as they responded to the devastating Gorakha earthquake in 2015 and other disasters in Nepal. This paper considers the three sub-disciplines of sociology: the sociology of disaster, the sociology of education and the sociology of education governance in a development context. These sub-disciplines are nested together to analyse social, political and historical factors and their relationships which are helpful to identify risks and vulnerabilities in the education sector in Nepal. These are the major areas to explore the disaster context and needs of context-specific education acts (hereafter DRR education) to minimise the potential risks of disasters. The article concludes that the social disciplinary framework is significantly useful to analyse DRR education provisions and implications of education governance to mobilise school in disaster preparedness, response and recovery.

Are social embeddedness associated with food risk perception under media coverage?

Traceability system has received wide attention in solving food safety issues, via which food information could be tracked back to producer/farmers. Consumers need to obtain this information from producers or social networks, trust in the information,and consequently assess perceived risks, especially when food scandals are exposed to the media. In this study, we introduce the social embeddedness theory to understand how consumers’ social activities affect their risk perceptions on traceable food. Specifically, we investigate how risk perceptions are predicted by the interpersonal relationships, organizational level and social-level relationships. Results show that the interpersonal relationships were associated with lower levels of risk perceptions, while organizational and social relationships impacted consumer’s risk perceptions at middle and higher levels,respectively. Results also show that the "ripple effect" extended to effect of risk events with negative information, however,did not exist for the group exposed to positive information. Potential food safety implications have been proposed to identify for effective risk mitigation under media coverages.

Simulating Sustainable Urban Development by Incorporating Social-ecological Risks into a Constrained CA Model

A key solution to urban and global sustainability is effective planning of sustainable urban development, for which geo-techniques especially cellular automata(CA) models can be very informative. However, existing CA models for simulating sustainable urban development, though increasingly refined in modeling urban growth, capture mostly the environmental aspect of sustainability. In this study, an adaptable risk-constrained CA model was developed by incorporating the social-ecological risks of urban development. A three-dimensional risk assessment framework was proposed that explicitly considers the environmental constraints on, system resilience to, and potential impacts of urban development. The risk-constrained model was then applied to a case study of Sheyang County, Jiangsu Province in the eastern China. Comparative simulations of urban development in four contrasting scenarios were conducted, namely, the environmental suitability constrained scenario, the ecological risk constrained scenario, the social risk constrained scenario, and the integrated social-ecological risk constrained scenario. The simulations suggested that considering only environmental suitability in the CA simulation of urban development overestimated the potential of sustainable urban growth, and that the urbanization mode changed from city expansion that was more constrained by social risks to town growth that was more constrained by ecological risks. Our risk-constrained CA model can better simulate sustainable urban development; additionally, we provide suggestions on the sustainable urban development in Sheyang and on future model development.

预付式消费政府平台法律监管的治理路径

为应对预付式消费给传统监管体系提出的挑战,一些地方政府利用信息化、互联化的优势,探索建立统一的互联网监管平台。这些平台存在着备案参与度低、平台风险警示制度缺乏互联互通等困境,究其根源是由于政府管控型监管理念与风险预防逻辑不适应;监管权力配置模式过于僵化;制度规范滞后于监管需求;监管工具的创新性不足。为治理上述困境,亟需从政府管控监管理念转换为多元协同监管理念;构建“部门协同、社会共担”的监管权力配置格局;健全“风险预防、程序保障”为导向的监管规范体系;创新监管工具以提高风险预防的精准性等四个方面的改革路径,为治理政府主导型预付式消费互联网平台的监管困境提供思路。

人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响——基于CHFS数据的实证研究

改革开放以来,中国经历了大规模的人口迁移,形成了庞大的流动人口群体,对经济社会各个领域产生了深刻的影响,也在一定程度上改变了居民的家庭金融资产配置结构。利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2017和2019年两期数据,实证分析了人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响。研究发现:人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置具有显著的正向促进效应,在使用工具变量法处理内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验之后结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,人口流动对50岁以上的户主家庭和城市居民家庭的风险金融资产配置促进作用更大;同时,人口流动通过影响家庭的社会互动和风险偏好,进而提升家庭的风险金融资产配置水平。鉴于已有文献鲜有从人口流动视角研究家庭风险金融资产配置问题,研究结论丰富了相关文献,同时也为政府相关部门优化人口流动机制、拓宽居民投资渠道提供了理论依据。

基于系统动力学的我国社会重大风险仿真研究

基于系统动力学模型,构建社会重大风险系统因果关系图和流图,运用综合指数法对社会重大风险进行预警分析,并对子系统引起的社会重大风险进行仿真预测以监测我国社会重大风险。结果表明:宏观经济、生态环境及社会治理三个子系统监测预警综合值变化较小,趋势比较平稳,社会重大风险监测预警综合指数整体上呈现出小幅上升的趋势。因此,为防范化解我国的社会重大风险,政府应通过提升常规风险与突发事件应急管理机制精确度,加强社会重大风险的制度化控制,打好防范化解社会重大风险的基础。

中国在中东欧国家投资的风险及防范对策研究

中国与中东欧国家建立了跨区域合作机制。中国在中东欧国家的投资面临政治风险、社会风险和法律风险。政治风险包括中东欧国家的政府稳定性风险、外交风险和战争风险。社会风险包括中东欧国家对华负面舆论的风险、暴力性群体事件的风险和劳工风险。法律风险包括中东欧国家接受欧盟法律制约的风险、严格执行合同的风险和严格执行环保法的风险。我们需要加强风险防范。我国要建立境外投资和境外经贸合作园区的风险防范的工作体系;要针对政治风险、社会风险和法律风险分别采取不同的防范措施。

新时代农村重大社会风险治理的动员机制与生成逻辑

社会动员能够在短期内最大程度上整合治理资源,成为中国应对复杂问题的重要方式。农村重大社会风险治理关键在于形成强有力的社会动员机制。新时代农村重大社会风险治理实践中,动员网络、动员方式、主体互动机制都呈现诸多新变化,既发挥党组织的组织优势,又发挥政府的专业化优势,同时根据治理情境变化,能动性调整动员策略,最大程度激活体制内外各种力量参与,是党政统合的社会整合动员机制。党政统合的社会整合动员机制有其内生逻辑,它是执政党基因、公共权力基因、公益基因、社会责任基因等多元基因融合的结果,是新时代中国特色社会主义社会动员机制的新呈现。

我国地方高校校园安全治理中大学生参与机制

随着校园安全治理复杂性和不确定性的增加,亟须从风险沟通面向加强大学生参与机制的整体融入。通过构建大学生参与机制的六维风险沟通新分析框架,发现我国地方高校校园安全治理中大学生参与机制存在理念薄弱性、主体碎片化、路径科层化、内容有限性、手段单一化、效果应急化等困境。上述困境的生成机制涉及理念错位、主体利益桎梏、官僚制路径依赖、维稳隐性驱动、手段“内卷化”、配套制度不充分。为此,可通过预防性参与理念、整体型参与主体、网络化参与路径、充分型参与内容、复合式参与手段、制度性参与效果的“六位一体”再造,实现对大学生参与机制困境的风险沟通治理。

劳动者创业与多层次社会保险需求——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证研究

采用2013—2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证检验自主创业对多层次社会保险需求的影响。研究发现:个体进行自主创业后的多层次社会保险需求会显著提高,增加幅度平均为3.29个百分点。相比于受雇个体,年龄在45~59岁且收入处于中等水平的发展型创业个体具有更高的多层次社会保险需求。在保险类型上,自主创业个体对多层次养老保险的需求最高,而对多层次医疗保险的需求较低。自主创业个体还会提高其家人的多层次社会保险需求,配置顺序依次是青壮年、老年人和儿童。

虚拟数字人的传播风险与社会行动者治理

虚拟数字人日益嵌入社会结构当中,加剧当下社会的媒介化程度,在其迅速应用于内容生产领域的同时,还出现了内容失当和传播伦理等问题。虚拟数字人是非人之物(non-human),但该场景中的社会行动者——中之人既是自然人,又为内容把关模式的创新提供一个可行的视角。中之人被视为法律责任的主体之一,作为新型把关主体,其隐匿于后台,把关的创新体现在主体、对象、策略和价值引导等方面,呈现出中介化和弥散化的特点,相关主体性的建构还需与主流文化同频共振,以求把关主体的价值观和“善治”有机融合。

作业场所安全标志、风险感知与安全注意力关系

为探索安全标志、风险感知与安全注意力的深层次作用关系,基于决策双系统理论,在访谈调研基础上,建立三者关系的假设模型。通过分析两个时间点收集的487份中国制造业企业员工数据,使用层次回归分析和Bootstrap检验中介与调节效应以验证假设模型。结果显示:安全标志正向影响员工安全注意力,风险感知在上述关系中起中介作用,安全培训正向调节安全标志与风险感知的正向关系以及风险感知在安全标志与安全注意力之间的中介作用,时间压力负向调节风险感知与员工安全注意力的关系以及风险感知在安全标志与安全注意力之间的中介作用。

Associations of social participation, demographic, socioeconomic and disease factors with nutritional risk in a group of older Hong Kong adults

Aims: To identify the impact of social participation, socio-demographic, socio-economic and disease factors on nutritional risk among older persons in Hong Kong. Background: Few published work has investigated the relative risks of social participation, demographic, socioeconomic and disease factors with malnutrition in community-living older people, this study is to investigate the associations of these risk factors on the nutritional status in better nutrition support for the old age group. Design: A crosssectional study. Methods: It was a secondary analysis of a database in a mobile community centre between January 2008 and December 2009. One thousand seven hundred and thirty one participants aged between 54 and 103 were collected. With 319 full Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) completed, the participants’ demographic, socio-economic data, diseases, and nutritional status were analyzed with relative risk and 95% confidence interval level to identify the factors that make them vulnerable to nutritional risk. Results: The prevalence of malnutrition in the community-dwelling old was 3.95% and 83.7% of the sample was at risk of malnutrition. Living on allowances, young old who was socially engaged and good relationship with family members were at less risk to malnutrition. Conclusions: Special attention should be taken to these groups as they are prone to develop malnutrition.

现代化进程中的社会保障模式转型

在现代化过程中发展而来的现代社会保障制度,通过“社会权利范式”与“结构功能范式”的互动,与各国的现代化过程不断同频共振,并依据不同国家差异化的目标约束和条件约束,形成了危机救助、风险预防等社会保障模式。随着现代化的深化,作为现代化重要特征的社会保障模式,必将依现代化所带来的约束条件而做出适应性选择。由现代技术催生的社会经济形态、社会结构、新就业形态的变化和国民对社会保障权益诉求的不断提高,必然要求社会保障模式从危机救助、风险预防向权益保障模式的转型,以适应变化社会对国民社会保障的需求。在中国式现代化的目标约束与新经济、新技术发展,人口结构变化等条件约束下,基于风险共识、责任共担、权益共享的权益保障模式是中国社会保障达成社会权利范式与结构功能范式内在平衡的可行路径。

服务机器人属性对消费者实现型幸福感的影响研究

当今,机器人越来越多地出现于商业场所,服务中的人际交互转变为人机交互,是否同样能给消费者带来幸福感呢?基于自我决定理论,本文探讨服务机器人属性对消费者实现型幸福感的影响。通过对255份问卷样本数据进行实证分析,结果发现:服务机器人属性对消费者实现型幸福感有显著正向影响;自我控制在服务机器人属性和实现型幸福感间起中介作用;消费者的社交焦虑正向调节服务机器人属性与实现型幸福感的关系,并且加强了自我控制在服务机器人属性与实现型幸福感之间的中介作用;感知隐私风险负向调节了服务机器人属性与实现型幸福感的关系,并且削弱了自我控制在服务机器人属性与实现型幸福感之间的中介作用。