There is a lack of information about the factors responsible for the effectiveness of environmental policies in Brazilian agriculture.This study aimed at identifying the perception and practices of agrarian profession...There is a lack of information about the factors responsible for the effectiveness of environmental policies in Brazilian agriculture.This study aimed at identifying the perception and practices of agrarian professionals.The data analysis was carried out using a survey and methodological approaches focusing on environmental complexity and categorization of environmental actions.Quantitative analysis was based on descriptive statistics.Atmospheric problems were perceived as the main problems for the current and next two generations,while hydrological problems were indicated as those deserving most urgent solutions.On the other hand,the main developed actions and those planned to be carried out were classified within the responsibility category.Because of the reductionist perceptions,introduction of the concept of a socio-ecological system is indicated by means of methodological interventions during the development of agrarian professionals;also,in order to stimulate actions related to the competence and citizenship category,a methodological intervention focusing on resilience thinking is proposed.Typical actions of individuals with either reductionist or complex conceptions of the environment can be captured and,therefore,educational strategies can be traced based on the profiles obtained.展开更多
Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementati...Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementation of a decision support system（DSS） that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use management. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model, water availability in semiarid environments. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were taken as inputs into the DSS in three types of links： regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. The DSS integrates the hydrological data, geographic data, social and economic statistical data, and establishes the relationships with equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming is realized in C＋＋. The DSS has four remarkable features：（1） editable land use maps to assist decision-making;（2） conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources;（3） interactions among water, earth, ecosystem, and humans; and（4） links with hydrological models. The overall goal of the DSS is to combine the outputs of scientific models, knowledge of experts, and perspectives of stakeholders, into a computer-based system, which allows sustainability impact assessment within regional planning; and to understand ecosystem services and integrate them into land and water management.展开更多
Floods are the most devastating hazards that have significant adverse impacts on people and their livelihoods. Their impacts can be reduced by investing on: 1) improving the forecasting skills of extreme and heavy rai...Floods are the most devastating hazards that have significant adverse impacts on people and their livelihoods. Their impacts can be reduced by investing on: 1) improving the forecasting skills of extreme and heavy rainfall events, 2) development of Impacts Based Flood Early Warning System (IBFEWS) and 3) effective communication of impacts from anticipated extreme or heavy rainfall event. The development of IBFEWS however, requires a complete understanding of factors that relates to the formation of extreme or heavy rainfall events and their associated socio-economic impacts. This information is crucial in the development of Impacts Based Flood Forecasting Models (IBFFMs). In this study, we assess the socio-economic impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam as the preliminary stage in the development of IBFFMs for the City of Dar es Salaam. Data from household survey collected using systematic random sampling techniques and structured questionnaires are used. The survey was conducted to acquire respondent’s views on the causes of floods impacts, adaptive capacity to extreme or heavy rainfall events and adaptation options to minimize flood impact. It is found that the main causes of floods were river overflow due to heavy rainfall and blocked drainage system. Poor infrastructure such as drainage and sewage systems, and ocean surge were identified to be the causes of observed impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam. Death cases analysis showed that 43 people were reported dead. The flood event damaged properties worth of 7.5 million Tanzania shillings. Furthermore, the Tanzania Government spent a total amount of 1.83 billion Tanzanian shillings to rescue and relocate vulnerable communities that lived-in low-lying areas of Jagwani to high ground areas of Mabwepande in Kinondoni district.展开更多
基金FAPEMIG and CNPq for financial support,studentships(to M.R.F.and S.V.B.G.M.),and fellowships(to R.L.G.M.and N.V.)
文摘There is a lack of information about the factors responsible for the effectiveness of environmental policies in Brazilian agriculture.This study aimed at identifying the perception and practices of agrarian professionals.The data analysis was carried out using a survey and methodological approaches focusing on environmental complexity and categorization of environmental actions.Quantitative analysis was based on descriptive statistics.Atmospheric problems were perceived as the main problems for the current and next two generations,while hydrological problems were indicated as those deserving most urgent solutions.On the other hand,the main developed actions and those planned to be carried out were classified within the responsibility category.Because of the reductionist perceptions,introduction of the concept of a socio-ecological system is indicated by means of methodological interventions during the development of agrarian professionals;also,in order to stimulate actions related to the competence and citizenship category,a methodological intervention focusing on resilience thinking is proposed.Typical actions of individuals with either reductionist or complex conceptions of the environment can be captured and,therefore,educational strategies can be traced based on the profiles obtained.
基金supported by German-Sino bilateral collaboration research project SuMaRiO funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Researchthe support of NSFC-UNEP Project (41361140361): Ecological Responses to Climatic Change and Land-cover Change in Arid and Semiarid Central Asia during the Past 500 Years
文摘Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementation of a decision support system（DSS） that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use management. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model, water availability in semiarid environments. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were taken as inputs into the DSS in three types of links： regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. The DSS integrates the hydrological data, geographic data, social and economic statistical data, and establishes the relationships with equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming is realized in C＋＋. The DSS has four remarkable features：（1） editable land use maps to assist decision-making;（2） conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources;（3） interactions among water, earth, ecosystem, and humans; and（4） links with hydrological models. The overall goal of the DSS is to combine the outputs of scientific models, knowledge of experts, and perspectives of stakeholders, into a computer-based system, which allows sustainability impact assessment within regional planning; and to understand ecosystem services and integrate them into land and water management.
文摘Floods are the most devastating hazards that have significant adverse impacts on people and their livelihoods. Their impacts can be reduced by investing on: 1) improving the forecasting skills of extreme and heavy rainfall events, 2) development of Impacts Based Flood Early Warning System (IBFEWS) and 3) effective communication of impacts from anticipated extreme or heavy rainfall event. The development of IBFEWS however, requires a complete understanding of factors that relates to the formation of extreme or heavy rainfall events and their associated socio-economic impacts. This information is crucial in the development of Impacts Based Flood Forecasting Models (IBFFMs). In this study, we assess the socio-economic impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam as the preliminary stage in the development of IBFFMs for the City of Dar es Salaam. Data from household survey collected using systematic random sampling techniques and structured questionnaires are used. The survey was conducted to acquire respondent’s views on the causes of floods impacts, adaptive capacity to extreme or heavy rainfall events and adaptation options to minimize flood impact. It is found that the main causes of floods were river overflow due to heavy rainfall and blocked drainage system. Poor infrastructure such as drainage and sewage systems, and ocean surge were identified to be the causes of observed impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam. Death cases analysis showed that 43 people were reported dead. The flood event damaged properties worth of 7.5 million Tanzania shillings. Furthermore, the Tanzania Government spent a total amount of 1.83 billion Tanzanian shillings to rescue and relocate vulnerable communities that lived-in low-lying areas of Jagwani to high ground areas of Mabwepande in Kinondoni district.
