Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)experiments.Two cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on growth.The perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF case.The vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case dependence.Furthermore,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source perturbations.For the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive interactions.In the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

EXPECTED DISCOUNTED PENALTY FUNCTION AT RUIN FOR RISK PROCESS PERTURBED BY DIFFUSION UNDER INTEREST FORCE

In this article, the risk process perturbed by diffusion under interest force is considered, the continuity and twice continuous differentiability for Фδ（u,w） are discussed,the Feller expression and the integro-differential equation satisfied by Фδ （u ,w） are derived. Finally, the decomposition of Фδ（u,w） is discussed, and some properties of each decomposed part of Фδ（u,w） are obtained. The results can be reduced to some ones in Gerber and Landry＇s,Tsai and Willmot＇s, and Wang＇s works by letting parameter δ and （or） a be zero.

A New Navigation Force Model for the Earth’s Albedo and Its Effects on the Orbital Motion of an Artificial Satellite

In this paper, we developed a new approach of an analytical model to calculate the radial and transversal components of the acceleration due to the effects of Earth’s albedo. Its effects on the orbital motion of an artificial satellite are introduced. It is assumed that the satellite’s horizon is illuminated and the sun lies on the equator. The magnitudes of those components are obtained and their effects on orbital evolution have been tested for different satellites elements. The perturbations in orbital elements due to Earth’s albedo have been obtained using Lagrange Planetary equation in Gaussian form, in particular the case of LAGEOS satellite, have been found using this new analytical formalism.

FINITE ELEMENT DISPLACEMENT PERTURBATION METHOD FOR GEOMETRIC NONLINEAR BEHAVIORS OF SHELLS OF REVOLUTION OVERALL BEDING IN A MERIDIONAL PLANE AND APPLICATION TO BELLOW (Ⅱ)

The finite_element_displacement_perturbation method (FEDPM)for the geometric nonlinear behaviors of shells of revolution subjected to pure bending moments or lateral forces in one of their meridional planes (Ⅰ) was employed to calculate the stress distributions and the stiffness of the bellows. Firstly, by applying the first_order perturbation solution (the linear solution)of the FEDPM to the bellows, the obtained results were compared with those of the general solution and the initial parameter integration solution proposed by the present authors earlier, as well as of the experiments and the FEA by others.It is shown that the FEDPM is with good precision and reliability, and as it was pointed out in (Ⅰ) the abrupt changes of the meridian curvature of bellows would not affect the use of the usual straight element. Then the nonlinear behaviors of the bellows were discussed. As expected, the nonlinear effects mainly come from the bellows ring plate,and the wider the ring plate is, the stronger the nonlinear effects are. Contrarily, the vanishing of the ring plate, like the C_shaped bellows, the nonlinear effects almost vanish. In addition, when the pure bending moments act on the bellows, each convolution has the same stress distributions calculated by the linear solution and other linear theories, but by the present nonlinear solution they vary with respect to the convolutions of the bellows. Yet for most bellows, the linear solutions are valid in practice.

Analytical modeling of static behavior of electrostatically actuatednano/micromirrors considering van der Waals forces

In this paper, the effect of van der Waals （vdW） force on the pull-in behavior of electrostatically actuated nano/micromirrors is investigated. First, the minimum po- tential energy principle is utilized to find the equation gov- erning the static behavior of nano/micromirror under electro- static and vdW forces. Then, the stability of static equilib- rium points is analyzed using the energy method. It is found that when there exist two equilibrium points, the smaller one is stable and the larger one is unstable. The effects of dif- ferent design parameters on the mirror＇s pull-in angle and pull-in voltage are studied and it is found that vdW force can considerably reduce the stability limit of the mirror. At the end, the nonlinear equilibrium equation is solved numer- ically and analytically using homotopy perturbation method （HPM）. It is observed that a sixth order perturbation approx- imation can precisely model the mirror＇s behavior. The re- suits of this paper can be used for stable operation design and safe fabrication of torsional nano/micro actuators.

Resistance Measured by Airflow Perturbation Compared with Standard Pulmonary Function Measures

Background: Routine lung function testing requires expensive equipment, or requires maximum expiratory effort. The airflow perturbation device (APD) is a light handheld device, allowing for serial measures of respiratory resistance noninvasively and effortlessly. Methods: In a convenience sample of 398 patients undergoing pulmonary function testing, we compared routine spirometric indices (forced expired volume in 1 second (FEV1), peak expiratory flow (PEF)), and airways resistance (Raw-272 patients), to measures of respiratory resistance measured with the APD including inspiratory (IR), expiratory (ER) and averaged (AR) resistance. Results: Measures of lung function were significantly correlated (p 0.001). On regression analysis, between 7% - 17% of the variance (R2) for FEV1, PEF, and Raw was explained by APD measurements. Approximately 2/3 of the variance in FEV1 was explained by PEF measurements. Conclusions: APD measurements of lung function correlate with conventional measures. Future studies should be directed at exploring the use of the APD device in serial measures of lung function in patients with lung disease.

ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS OF WEAKLY NONLINEAR AND FORCED OSCILLATIONS

The restriction of KB averaging method is discussed and asymptotic solution of the weakly nonlinear and forced oscillation u″+ω20u=εkcos ωt-εu3 is obtained by Struble technique. The conclusion about this oscillation derived with other method is discussed. The results show that KB method will break down when a and θ in the zeroth solution of above eqation are not slowly varying functions of time t. The stationary solution of weakly nonlinear oscillation, u″+ω20u=εkcosω(ε)t-εu3 is also analysed.

FINITE ELEMENT DISPLACEMENT PERTURBATION METHOD FOR GEOMETRIC NONLINEAR BEHAVIORS OF SHELLS OF REVOLUTION OVERALL BENDING IN A MERIDIONAL PLANE AND APPLICATION TO BELLOWS (Ⅰ)

In order to analyze bellows effectively and practically, the finite_element_displacement_perturbation method (FEDPM) is proposed for the geometric nonlinear behaviors of shells of revolution subjected to pure bending moments or lateral forces in one of their meridional planes. The formulations are mainly based upon the idea of perturba_ tion that the nodal displacement vector and the nodal force vector of each finite element are expanded by taking root_mean_square value of circumferential strains of the shells as a perturbation parameter. The load steps and the iteration times are not as arbitrary and unpredictable as in usual nonlinear analysis. Instead, there are certain relations between the load steps and the displacement increments, and no need of iteration for each load step. Besides, in the formulations, the shell is idealized into a series of conical frusta for the convenience of practice, Sander's nonlinear geometric equations of moderate small rotation are used, and the shell made of more than one material ply is also considered.

Research on Cogging Force Suppression for Toroidal PMLSM Based on Disturbance Observer

For a new type of toroidal permanent magnet linear motor(TPMLSM), this paper analyzes the thrust fluctuation in the constant acceleration operation of the motor from the Angle of the cogging force of the linear motor. For the motor whose structure has been determined and processed, the structural parameters of the motor cannot be changed, and its performance cannot be improved from the perspective of the motor body.Therefore, this paper tries to consider the influence of the cogging force on the normal operation of the motor from the perspective of control. In this paper, starting from the body structure of motor, first on the annular linear motor of the cogging force characteristics were extracted, and its expression is obtained by Fourier decomposition, then investigated considering the cogging force and does not consider the cogging force control of motor model, it can be seen that the control performance deteriorates significantly after considering cogging force of the motor, and the acceleration fluctuation increases significantly during the operation of the motor. On this basis, disturbance observation algorithm is introduced, and feedforward compensation is carried out by extracting the characteristic values of the disturbance model. The results show that the disturbance observer can suppress the thrust fluctuation caused by the motor cogging force to a large extent, and it can reduce the peak-to-peak value of the thrust fluctuation by more than 85% during the motor acceleration operation.

Diagnosis of the Forcing of Inertial-gravity Waves in a Severe Convection System

The non-hydrostatic wave equation set in Cartesian coordinates is rearranged to gain insight into wave generation in a mesoscale severe convection system. The wave equation is characterized by a wave operator on the lhs, and forcing involving three terms—linear and nonlinear terms, and diabatic heating—on the rhs. The equation was applied to a case of severe convection that occurred in East China. The calculation with simulation data showed that the diabatic forcing and linear and nonlinear forcing presented large magnitude at different altitudes in the severe convection region. Further analysis revealed the diabatic forcing due to condensational latent heating had an important influence on the generation of gravity waves in the middle and lower levels. The linear forcing resulting from the Laplacian of potential-temperature linear forcing was dominant in the middle and upper levels. The nonlinear forcing was determined by the Laplacian of potential-temperature nonlinear forcing. Therefore, the forcing of gravity waves was closely associated with the thermodynamic processes in the severe convection case. The reason may be that, besides the vertical component of pressure gradient force, the vertical oscillation of atmospheric particles was dominated by the buoyancy for inertial gravity waves. The latent heating and potential-temperature linear and nonlinear forcing played an important role in the buoyancy tendency. Consequently, these thermodynamic elements influenced the evolution of inertial-gravity waves.

卫星摄动力仿真技术研究

针对卫星轨道的摄动影响分析与仿真是地球重力场反演的主要内容之一,高精度摄动力模型的构建对反演高精度的重力场模型至关重要。由于目前尚未有精确的卫星非保守力摄动模型,卫星所受到的非保守力只能通过星载加速度计进行在轨测量。利用计算机仿真技术研究了保守力摄动和非保守力摄动因素对卫星轨道的影响,结合卫星在轨数据,提出了新的摄动力数学模型,定量分析和评估了各摄动加速度对卫星加速度的影响,研究成果对重力场探测和反演具有重要意义。

On the analytical soliton approximations to fractional forced Korteweg-de Vries equation arising in fluids and plasmas using two novel techniques

The current investigation examines the fractional forced Korteweg-de Vries(FF-KdV) equation,a critically significant evolution equation in various nonlinear branches of science. The equation in question and other associated equations are widely acknowledged for their broad applicability and potential for simulating a wide range of nonlinear phenomena in fluid physics, plasma physics, and various scientific domains. Consequently, the main goal of this study is to use the Yang homotopy perturbation method and the Yang transform decomposition method, along with the Caputo operator for analyzing the FF-KdV equation. The derived approximations are numerically examined and discussed. Our study will show that the two suggested methods are helpful, easy to use, and essential for looking at different nonlinear models that affect complex processes.

潜射导弹出水姿态影响因素研究

为实现潜射导弹出水姿态的快速精确计算,建立了海洋流场模型和潜射导弹出水动力学模型,分析了空化现象对弹体水动力特性的作用,研究了弹体速度,海流速度,波浪高度以及出水相位对导弹出水姿态的影响。研究结果表明,在速度不高于20 m/s的情况下,空化效应对出水过程中导弹姿态的影响较小;弹体速度直接影响导弹受波浪力的作用时间,弹速越低,潜射导弹受波浪力影响越长,出水姿态参数变化越明显;海流流速越大,导弹姿态受扰动越严重,侧向偏距越大;波高影响波浪力幅值大小,对出水姿态参数有着直接的影响,波高越大对出水姿态参数的影响越大;出水初相位和流速主要影响流体质点的运动方向,改变波浪附加惯性力,导弹在波谷和波峰位置出水对导弹姿态影响最大,波节介于两者之间。

基于单元的静力区间有限元法

在许多工程问题中 ,结构参数和荷载具有某种程度的误差或不确定性。若不将它们定量化或模型化加以考虑 ,就不能作出合理的分析和设计。考虑到有限元法在科学界和工程界的广泛应用 ,本文以连续梁结构为例 ,建立了基于单元的静力区间有限元法。为了说明本方法的有效性 ,本文给出了一个数值例子 ,并把所得结果与文献 [1 2 ]进行了比较。

参数激励圆柱形容器中的非线性Faraday波

在柱坐标系下,通过奇异摄动理论的多尺度展开法求解势流方程,研究了垂直强迫激励圆柱形容器中的单一模式水表面驻波模式· 假设流体是无粘、不可压且运动是无旋的,在忽略了表面张力的影响下,用两变量时间展开法得到一个具有立方项以及底部驱动项影响的非线性振幅方程· 对上述方程进行了数值计算,计算的结果显示了在不同驱动振幅和驱动频率下,会激发不同自由水表面驻波模式,从等高线的图像来看。

一次华北暴雨过程中“质量强迫”的数值模拟

在暴雨系统中,大量降水会造成湿空气质量的亏损,这种湿空气质量亏损对暴雨系统的发生、发展有一定的强迫作用,称之为"质量强迫"。本文首先从理论上通过对连续方程进行修改,重新推导了ARPS模式中考虑质量强迫作用的扰动气压倾向方程,并利用该模式对一次华北冷锋暴雨过程进行质量强迫作用的数值模拟试验,详细分析了质量强迫引起的云微物理过程的变化。对比分析表明:(1)质量强迫项影响系统的降水量。在本文个例中,质量强迫项起主要作用的高度在5.75 km左右,使得大气产生了由该层向上、向下的运动调整,其中向下的运动调整不利于低层对流的上升运动,减弱了系统的对流强度,导致中心降水量有所减少。(2)云水场的分布与质量强迫项的分布吻合较好;降水率的变化和质量强迫项的变化趋势相似,且在5.75 km高度上表现明显;降水粒子下落末速度项是引起质量强迫项变化的主要原因。(3)湿空气质量场发生改变将使局地气压发生变化,这种变化又使动力场发生相应的调整,产生辐合、辐散及垂直运动。反之,运动场的调整也影响到气压场的调整,它们之间将是一个相互影响的过程,近而对天气系统发展强度产生较明显的作用。(4)对对比试验中模式控制方程各项的差别分析发现:造成扰动气压局地变化项差的主要原因是由散度项差与垂直速度项差共同作用造成的,其中,质量强迫项差起了间接的作用;造成水汽及云水物质局地变化项差的主要原因是微物理源汇项差,其次是降水粒子下落末速度项差。

液固纵向耦合系统的受迫响应

建立了柱形贮箱中液体与弹性体纵向耦合振动的一类动力学模型，并运用Ｂｅｒｎｏｕｌｉ积分及Ｄ′Ａｌｅｍｂｅｒｔ原理导出了相应的动力学方程。发现在小幅晃动情况下，航天器的振动将构成对液体的有滞后相角的参数激励，这一滞后相角是弹性体阻尼及外激励的函数。对该动力学方程运用多尺度方法，得到液体各阶模态晃动的摄动解。

结构损伤识别中的广义残余力向量差法研究

采用矩阵摄动有限元方法,给出了结构损伤识别方程。为减小模型误差和测试误差对损伤识别结果的影响,利用残余力向量对损伤单元的敏感性,提出了广义残余力向量差的概念。为提高损伤识别结果精度和计算效率,联合采用广义残余力向量差定位与频率变化定量的结构损伤识别方法,先运用广义残余力向量差来初步确定损伤位置,再根据频率摄动运用测试精度较高的频率筛选计算损伤程度并确认损伤位置。实例证明,即使考虑测试误差,该方法仍然可以实现对损伤位置和程度的快速准确识别,具有较强的噪声鲁棒性。

热力强迫对局地环流的扰动作用

用积分变换法求解了包含地面加热作用的二维不可压缩流体的Boussinesq方程组,得到一组描述地面加热作用激发的局地扰动流场的解析解,主要有垂直风、水平扰动风、扰动气压、扰动温度。进而用动力学分析观点结合图形分析,定性讨论了热力强迫作用对局地环流的扰动作用,以及加热影响下各物理扰动场的空间分布及时间演变特征。

基于逆动力学的飞行器直接力控制系统及其稳定性分析

针对现代飞行器飞行动力学特性的非线性及耦合问题日益显著,传统线性系统设计方法已难以满足控制要求的现状,在非线性系统的逆系统解耦控制方法的基础上,提出了基于逆动力学的飞行器直接力控制技术。在翼面载荷可控的条件下,选取扰动较小的机体动力学部分建立逆系统模型进行解耦补偿,降低了逆系统模型的建模难度,提高了逆模型建模精度。稳定性分析证明了扰动条件下系统的稳定性,并求取了稳定条件。仿真结果验证了系统在不同负载条件下的稳定性,表现了良好的鲁棒性。