Forecasting Global Solar Insolation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Based Clearness Index Model

This paper describes a novel approach in developing a model for forecasting of global insolation on a horizontal plane.In the proposed forecasting model,constraints,such as latitude and whole precipitable water content in vertical column of that location,are used.These parameters can be easily measurable with a global positioning system(GPS).The earlier model was developed by using the above datasets generated from different locations in India.The model has been verified by calculating theoretical global insolation for different sites covering east,west,north,south and the central region with the measured values from the same locations.The model has also been validated on a region,from which data was not used during the development of the model.In the model,clearness index coefficients(KT)are updated using the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)algorithm.The forecasting efficacies using the KT model and EnKF algorithm have also been verified by comparing two popular algorithms,namely the recursive least square(RLS)and Kalman filter(KF)algorithms.The minimum mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),mean square error(MSE)and correlation coefficient(R)value obtained in global solar insolation estimations using EnKF in one of the locations are 2.4%,0.0285 and 0.9866 respectively.

Two Necessary Conditions for the Glacial-Interglacial Cycles in the Quaternary

Milankovitch Theory shows that glacial-interglacial cycles in the Quaternary are related to the variation of solar insolation forcing linked to the earth＇s astronomical parameters.However,the summer insolation at northern high latitudes,usually considered as the main external forcing for the ice age as Milankovitch pointed out,is marked by the 19- and 23-ka precession periodicities,which is not consistent with the glacial-interglacial cycles.On the other hand,recent studies indicate that the annual mean insolation dominated by the obliquity is also an important external forcing in glacial cycles.In this paper,it is assumed that the glacial oscillation is regulated simultaneously by the annual mean insolation at northern high latitudes related to obliquity and the noon insolation at summer solstice at the ice-line latitude related to precession. Only when both of them exceed some thresholds,does the ice sheet start to melt continuously to induce the global warming and deglaciation.Furthermore,the periodicity transition of glacial cycles at mid-Pleistocene was a natural change when the ice sheet thickness altered.A conceptual model based on this idea gives encouraging results compared with the isotopic data.

Changes in lake area and water level in response to hydroclimate variations in the source area of the Yellow River:a case study from Lake Ngoring

In the north-eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the source area of the Yellow River(SAYR)has been experiencing significant changes in climatic and environmental conditions in recent decades.To date,few studies have combined modern hydrological conditions with paleoclimate records to explore the mechanism(s)of these changes.This study seeks to improve understanding of hydrological variability on decadal and centennial timescales in the SAYR and to identify its general cause.We first determined annual fluctuations in the surface area of Lake Ngoring from 1985 to 2020 using multi-temporal Landsat images.The results show that lake surface area changes were generally consistent with variations in precipitation,streamflow and the regional dry-wet index in the SAYR,suggesting that the water balance of the Lake Ngoring area is closely associated with regional hydroclimate changes.These records are also comparable to the stalagmite δ^(18)O monsoon record,as well fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI).Moreover,an association of high TSI(total solar insolation)anomalies and sunspot numbers with the expansion of Lake Ngoring surface area is observed,implying that solar activity is the key driving factor for hydrologic variability in the SAYR on a decadal timescale.Following this line of reasoning,we compared the δ^(13)C org-based lake level fluctuations of Lake Ngoring for the last millennium,as previously reported,with the hydroclimatic history and the reconstructed TSI record.We conclude that the hydrological regime of Lake Ngoring has been mainly controlled by centennial fluctuations in precipitation for the last millennium,which is also dominated by solar activity.In general,it appears that solar activity has exerted a dominant influence on the hydrological regime of the SAYR on both decadal and centennial timescales,which is clearly manifested in the variations of lake area and water level of Lake Ngoring.