Characteristics of grassland degradation and driving forces in the source region of the Yellow River from 1985 to 2000

The source region of the Yellow River is located in the middle east of the Tibetan Plateau in northwest China. The total area is about 51,700 km^2, mainly covered by grassland （79%）, unused land （16%） and water （4%）. The increasing land utilization in this area has increased the risk of environmental degradation. The land use/cover data （1985 and 2000） provided by the Data Center of Resources and Environment in the Chinese Academy of Sciences were used to analyze the land cover change in the source region of the Yellow River. DEM （1：250,000） data, roads and settlement data were used to analyze the spatial characteristics of grasslands degradation. The ArcGIS 9 software was used to convert data types and do the overlay, reclassification and zonal statistic analysis. Results show that grassland degradation is the most important land cover change in the study area, which occupied 8.24% of the region＇s total area. Human activities are the main causes of the grassland degradation in the source region of the Yellow River： 1） the degradation rate is higher on the sunny slope than on the shady slope; 2） the grassland degradation rate decreases with an increase in the elevation, and it has a correlation coefficient of -0.93; 3） the nearer to the settlements the grassland is, the higher the degradation rate. Especially within a distance range of 12 km to the settlements, the grassland degradation rate is highly related with the distance, with a coefficient of -0.99; and 4） in the range of 4 km, the degradation rate decreases with the increase of distance to the roads, with a correlation coefficient of -0.98. Besides some physical factors, human activities have been the most important driving forces of the grassland degradation in the source region of the Yellow River since 1985. To resolve the degradation problems, population control is essential, and therefore, it can reduce the social demand of livestock products from the grassland. To achieve sustainable development, it needs to improve the management of grassland ecosystem.

Influencing factors of water resources in the source region of the Yellow River

Taking the source region of the Yellow River as a study area and based on the data from Madoi Meteorological Station and Huangheyan Hydrological Station covering the period 1955-2005, this paper analyses the changing trends of surface water resources, climate and frozen ground and reveals their causes. Results show that there exist frequent fluctuations from high to low water flow in the 51-year period. In general, the discharge has shown a de- clining trend in the 51 years especially since the 1990s. The annual distribution shows one peak which, year on year is getting smaller. （1） Precipitation has a significant and sustained influence on discharge. （2） A sharp rise of temperature resulted in the increase of evaporation and the decrease of discharge, which has a greater effect than on ice-snow melting. （3） Frozen ground tends to be degraded markedly. There is a significant positive correlation be- tween the permafrost thickness and the discharge. （4） Evaporation rates are significantly increasing, leading to the decrease of discharge. 70% of the discharge reduction resulted from climate change, and the remaining 30% may have been caused by human activities.

Estimation of water balance in the source region of the Yellow River based on GRACE satellite data

Water storage has important significance for understanding water cycles of global and local domains and for monitoring climate and environmental changes. As a key variable in hydrology, water storage change represents the sum of precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff, soil water and groundwater exchanges. Water storage change data during the period of 2003-2008 for the source region of the Yellow River were collected from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） satellite data. The monthly actual evaporation was estimated according to the water balance equation. The simulated actual evaporation was significantly consistent and correlative with not only the observed pan （20 cm） data, but also the simulated results of the version 2 of Simple Biosphere model. The average annual evaporation of the Tangnaihai Basin was 506.4 mm, where evaporation in spring, summer, autumn and winter was 130.9 mm, 275.2 mm, 74.3 mm and 26.1 mm, and accounted for 25.8%, 54.3%, 14.7% and 5.2% of the average annual evaporation, respectively, The precipitation increased slightly and the actual evaporation showed an obvious decrease. The water storage change of the source region of the Yellow River displayed an increase of 0.51 mm per month from 2003 to 2008, which indicated that the storage capacity has significantly increased, probably caused by the degradation of permafrost and the increase of the thickness of active layers. The decline of actual evaporation and the increase of water storage capacity resulted in the increase of river runoff.

Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, thepaper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of theobserved yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulationresults are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature andprecipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth underdifferent scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annualrunoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2℃and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largestsituation among all scenarios.

Different Responses of Vegetation to Frozen Ground Degradation in the Source Region of the Yellow River from 1980 to 2018

Frozen ground degradation under a warming climate profoundly influences the growth of alpine vegetation in the source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.This study investigated spatiotemporal variations in the frozen ground distribution,the active layer thickness(ALT)of permafrost(PF)soil and the soil freeze depth(SFD)in seasonally frozen soil from 1980 to 2018 using the temperature at the top of permafrost(TTOP)model and Stefan equation.We compared the effects of these variations on vegetation growth among different frozen ground types and vegetation types in the source region of the Yellow River(SRYR).The results showed that approximately half of the PF area(20.37%of the SRYR)was projected to degrade into seasonally frozen ground(SFG)during the past four decades;furthermore,the areal average ALT increased by 3.47 cm/yr,and the areal average SFD decreased by 0.93 cm/yr from 1980 to 2018.Accordingly,the growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)presented an increasing trend of 0.002/10 yr,and the increase rate and proportion of areas with NDVI increase were largest in the transition zone where PF degraded to SFG(the PF to SFG zone).A correlation analysis indicated that variations in ALT and SFD in the SRYR were significantly correlated with increases of NDVI in the growing season.However,a rapid decrease in SFD(<-1.4 cm/10 yr)could have reduced the soil moisture and,thus,decreased the NDVI.The NDVI for most vegetation types exhibited a significant positive correlation with ALT and a negative correlation with SFD.However,the steppe NDVI exhibited a significant negative correlation with the SFD in the PF to SFG zone but a positive correlation in the SFG zone,which was mainly limited by water condition because of different change rates of the SFD.

Ice-wedge Pseudomorphs Showing Climatic Change Since the Late Pleistocene in the Source Area of the Yellow River, Northeast Tibet

The source area of the Yellow River is located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and is a high-elevation region with the annual mean temperature of -3.9℃. The ice-wedge pseudomorphs discovered in this region are recognized as two types. One was found in sandy gravel beds of the second terrace of the Yellow River. This ice-wedge pseudomorph is characterized by higher ratio of breadth/depth, and are 1-1.4 m wide and about 1 m deep. The bottom border of the ice-wedge pseudomorph is round arc in section. Another discovered in the pedestal of the second terrace has lower ratio of width/depth, and is o.3-1.0 m wide and 1-2 m deep. Its bottom border is sharp. Based on the TL dating, the former was formed at the middleHolocene （5.69±0.43 ka BP and 5.43±0.41 ka BP）, that is, the Megathermal, and the latter was formed at the late Last Glacial Maximum （13.49±1.43 ka BP）. Additionally, the thawing-freezing folders discovered in the late Late Pleistocene proluvium are 39.83±3.84 ka BP in age. The study on the ice-wedge pseudomorphs showed that the air temperature was lowered by up to 6-7℃ in the source area of the Yellow River when the ice-wedge pseudomorphs and thawing-freezing folds developed.

Dataset of Comparative Observations for Land Surface Processes over the Semi-Arid Alpine Grassland against Alpine Lakes in the Source Region of the Yellow River

Thousands of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) play a critical role in the regional water cycle, weather, and climate. In recent years, the areas of TP lakes underwent drastic changes and have become a research hotspot. However, the characteristics of the lake-atmosphere interaction over the high-altitude lakes are still unclear, which inhibits model development and the accurate simulation of lake climate effects. The source region of the Yellow River(SRYR) has the largest outflow lake and freshwater lake on the TP and is one of the most densely distributed lakes on the TP. Since 2011,three observation sites have been set up in the Ngoring Lake basin in the SRYR to monitor the lake-atmosphere interaction and the differences among water-heat exchanges over the land and lake surfaces. This study presents an eight-year(2012–19), half-hourly, observation-based dataset related to lake–atmosphere interactions composed of three sites. The three sites represent the lake surface, the lakeside, and the land. The observations contain the basic meteorological elements,surface radiation, eddy covariance system, soil temperature, and moisture(for land). Information related to the sites and instruments, the continuity and completeness of data, and the differences among the observational results at different sites are described in this study. These data have been used in the previous study to reveal a few energy and water exchange characteristics of TP lakes and to validate and improve the lake and land surface model. The dataset is available at National Cryosphere Desert Data Center and Science Data Bank.

Evolution of the freeze-thaw cycles in the source region of the Yellow River under the influence of climate change and its hydrological effects

As an important water source and ecological barrier in the Yellow River Basin,the source region of the Yellow River(above the Huangheyan Hydrologic Station)presents a remarkable permafrost degradation trend due to climate change.Therefore,scientific understanding the effects of permafrost degradation on runoff variations is of great significance for the water resource and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin.In this paper,we studied the mechanism and extent of the effect of degrading permafrost on surface flow in the source region of the Yellow River based on the monitoring data of temperature and moisture content of permafrost in 2013–2019 and the runoff data in 1960–2019.The following results have been found.From 2013 to 2019,the geotemperature of the monitoring sections at depths of 0–2.4 m increased by 0.16°C/a on average.With an increase in the thawing depth of the permafrost,the underground water storage space also increased,and the depth of water level above the frozen layer at the monitoring points decreased from above 1.2 m to 1.2–2 m.64.7%of the average multiyear groundwater was recharged by runoff,in which meltwater from the permafrost accounted for 10.3%.Compared to 1960-1965,the runoff depth in the surface thawing period(from May to October)and the freezing period(from November to April)decreased by 1.5 mm and 1.2 mm,respectively during 1992–1997,accounting for 4.2%and 3.4%of the average annual runoff depth,respectively.Most specifically,the decrease in the runoff depth was primarily reflected in the decreased runoff from August to December.The permafrost degradation affects the runoff within a year by changing the runoff generation,concentration characteristics and the melt water quantity from permafrost,decreasing the runoff at the later stage of the permafrost thawing.However,the permafrost degradation has limited impacts on annual runoff and does not dominate the runoff changes in the source region of the Yellow River in the longterm.

Large-scale characteristics of thermokarst lakes across the source area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

As significant evidence of permafrost degradation,thermokarst lakes play an important role in the permafrost regions by regulating hydrology,ecology,and biogeochemistry.In the Sources Area of the Yellow River(SAYR),permafrost degradation has accelerated since the 1980s,and numerous thermokarst lakes have been discovered.In this paper,we use Sentinel-2 images to extract thermokarst lake boundaries and perform a regional-scale study on their geometry across the permafrost region in the SAYR.We also explored the spatiotemporal variations and potential drivers from the perspectives of the permafrost,climate,terrain and vegetation conditions.The results showed that there were 47,518 thermokarst lakes in 2021 with a total area of 190.22×106 m^(2),with an average size of 4,003.3 m^(2).The 44,928 ponds(≤10,000 m^(2))predominated the whole lake number(94.1%)but contributed to a small portion of the total lake area(28.8%).With 2,590 features(5.9%),small-sized(10,000 to 100,000 m^(2))and large-sized lakes(>100,000 m^(2))constituted up to 71.2%of the total lake area.Thermokarst lakes developed more significantly in warm permafrost regions than in cold permafrost areas;74.1%of lakes with a total area of 119.6×106 m^(2)(62.9%),were distributed in warm permafrost regions.Most thermokarst lakes were likely to develop within the elevation range of 4,500~4,800 m,on flat terrain(slope<10°),on SE and S aspects and in alpine meadow areas.The thermokarst lakes in the study region experienced significant shrinkage between 1990 and 2021,characterized by obvious lake drainage;the lake numbers decreased by 5418(56.1%),with a decreasing area of 58.63×106 m^(2)(49.0%).This shrinkage of the thermokarst lake area was attributable mainly to the intensified degradation of rich-ice permafrost thawing arising from continued climate warming,despite the wetting climatic trend.

Spatial-temporal variations in near-surface soil freeze-thaw cycles in the source region of the Yellow River during the period 2002–2011 based on the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System(AMSR-E) data

Detecting near-surface soil freeze-thaw cycles in high-altitude cold regions is important for understanding the Earth＇s surface system, but such studies are rare. In this study, we detected the spatial-temporal variations in near-surface soil freeze-thaw cycles in the source region of the Yellow River（SRYR） during the period 2002–2011 based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System（AMSR-E）. Moreover, the trends of onset dates and durations of the soil freeze-thaw cycles under different stages were also analyzed. Results showed that the thresholds of daytime and nighttime brightness temperatures of the freeze-thaw algorithm for the SRYR were 257.59 and 261.28 K, respectively. At the spatial scale, the daily frozen surface（DFS） area and the daily surface freeze-thaw cycle surface（DFTS） area decreased by 0.08% and 0.25%, respectively, and the daily thawed surface（DTS） area increased by 0.36%. At the temporal scale, the dates of the onset of thawing and complete thawing advanced by 3.10（±1.4） and 2.46（±1.4） days, respectively; and the dates of the onset of freezing and complete freezing were delayed by 0.9（±1.4） and 1.6（±1.1） days, respectively. The duration of thawing increased by 0.72（±0.21） day/a and the duration of freezing decreased by 0.52（±0.26） day/a. In conclusion, increases in the annual minimum temperature and winter air temperature are the main factors for the advanced thawing and delayed freezing and for the increase in the duration of thawing and the decrease in the duration of freezing in the SRYR.

An evaluation of soil moisture from AMSR-E over source area of the Yellow River, China

In this study,in-situ soil moisture measurements are used to evaluate the accuracy of three AMSR-E soil moisture prod ucts from NASA(National Aeronautics and Space Administration),JAXA(Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency)and VUA(Vrije University Amsterdam and NASA)over Maqu County,Source Area of the Yellow River(SAYR),China.Re sults show that the VUA soil moisture product performs the best among the three AMSR-E soil moisture products in the study area,with a minimum RMSE(root mean square error)of 0.08(0.10)m3/m3 and smallest absolute error of 0.07(0.08)m3/m3 at the grassland area with ascending(descending)data.Therefore,the VUA soil moisture product is used to describe the spatial variation of soil moisture during the 2010 growing season over SAYR.The VUA soil moisture product shows that soil moisture presents a declining trend from east south(0.42 m3/m3)to west north(0.23 m3/m3),with good agreement with a general precipitation distribution.The center of SAYR presents extreme wetness(0.60 m3/m3)dur ing the whole study period,especially in July,while the head of SAYR presents a high level soil moisture(0.23 m3/m3)in July,August and September.

Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff

The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation,increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature,which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorable for increased runoff in the future. The above analysis provides a valuable reference for the future planning and management of water resources in the source region of the Yellow River and the entire Yellow River Basin in the context of warming.

Response of runoff to climate change and its future tendency in the source region of Yellow River

This study examines the hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model （PRECIS） during 2010-2020. Through analyzing the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, it predicts the variation trend for future flows. It is found that the annual mean flow showed a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of the Yellow River with quasi-periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a; the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon induced precipitation decrease, as well as evaporation increase and frozen soil degeneration in the scenario of global warming are the climate factors, which have caused flow decrease. Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of the Yellow River are likely to decrease generally in the next 20 years.

Evidence for a recent warming and wetting in the source area of the Yellow River （SAYR） and its hydrological impacts

Climate change investigation at a watershed-scale plays a significant role in re- vealing the historical evolution and future trend of the runoff variation in watershed. This study examines the multisource hydrological and meteorological variables over the source area of the Yellow River （SAYR） from 1961 to 2,012 and the future climate scenarios in the region during 2006-2100 based on the CMIP5 projection data. It recognizes the significant charac-teristics of the recent climate change in the SAYR and predicts the change trend of future flow in the region. It is found that （1） The climate in the SAYR has experienced a significant warm-wet change since the early 2000s, which is very different from the antecedent warm-dry trend since the late 1980s; （2） The warm-wet trend in the northwestern SAYR （the headwater area of the Yellow River （HAYR）, is more obvious than that in the whole SAYR; （3） With pre- cipitation increase, the runoff in the region also experienced an increasing process since 2006. The runoff variations in the region are sensitive to the changes of precipitation, PET and maximum air temperature, but not very sensitive to changes in mean and minimum air temperatures; （4） Based on the CMIP5 projection data, the warm-wet climate trend in SAYR are likely to continue until 2049 if considering three different （i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5） greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and the precipitation in SAYR will not be less than the current level before 2100; however, it is estimated that the recent flow increase in the SAYR is likely to be the decadal change and it will at most continue until the 2020s; （5） The inter-annual variations of the East Asian winter monsoon are found to be closely related to the variations of annual precipitation in the region. Meanwhile, the increased precipitation as well as the increase of potential evapotranspiration （PET） being far less than that of precipitation in the recent period are the main climate causes for the flow increase in the region.

Changes in lake area and water level in response to hydroclimate variations in the source area of the Yellow River:a case study from Lake Ngoring

In the north-eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the source area of the Yellow River(SAYR)has been experiencing significant changes in climatic and environmental conditions in recent decades.To date,few studies have combined modern hydrological conditions with paleoclimate records to explore the mechanism(s)of these changes.This study seeks to improve understanding of hydrological variability on decadal and centennial timescales in the SAYR and to identify its general cause.We first determined annual fluctuations in the surface area of Lake Ngoring from 1985 to 2020 using multi-temporal Landsat images.The results show that lake surface area changes were generally consistent with variations in precipitation,streamflow and the regional dry-wet index in the SAYR,suggesting that the water balance of the Lake Ngoring area is closely associated with regional hydroclimate changes.These records are also comparable to the stalagmite δ^(18)O monsoon record,as well fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI).Moreover,an association of high TSI(total solar insolation)anomalies and sunspot numbers with the expansion of Lake Ngoring surface area is observed,implying that solar activity is the key driving factor for hydrologic variability in the SAYR on a decadal timescale.Following this line of reasoning,we compared the δ^(13)C org-based lake level fluctuations of Lake Ngoring for the last millennium,as previously reported,with the hydroclimatic history and the reconstructed TSI record.We conclude that the hydrological regime of Lake Ngoring has been mainly controlled by centennial fluctuations in precipitation for the last millennium,which is also dominated by solar activity.In general,it appears that solar activity has exerted a dominant influence on the hydrological regime of the SAYR on both decadal and centennial timescales,which is clearly manifested in the variations of lake area and water level of Lake Ngoring.

An Estimation of Ground Ice Volumes in Permafrost Layers in North- eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

The ground ice content in permafrost serves as one of the dominant properties of permafrost for the study of global climate change, ecology, hydrology and engineering construction in cold regions. This paper initially attempts to assess the ground ice volume in permafrost layers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by considering landform types, the corresponding lithological composition, and the measured water content in various regions. An approximation demonstrating the existence of many similarities in lithological composition and water content within a unified landform was established during the calculations. Considerable knowledge of the case study area, here called the Source Area of the Yellow(Huanghe) River(SAYR) in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has been accumulated related to permafrost and fresh water resources during the past 40 years. Considering the permafrost distribution, extent, spatial distribution of landform types, the ground ice volume at the depths of 3.0–10.0 m below the ground surface was estimated based on the data of 101 boreholes from field observations and geological surveys in different types of landforms in the permafrost region of the SAYR. The total ground ice volume in permafrost layers at the depths of 3.0–10.0 m was approximately(51.68 ± 18.81) km^3, and the ground ice volume per unit volume was(0.31 ± 0.11) m^3/m^3. In the horizontal direction, the ground ice content was higher in the landforms of lacustrine-marshland plains and alluvial-lacustrine plains, and the lower ground ice content was distributed in the erosional platforms and alluvial-proluvial plains. In the vertical direction, the volume of ground ice was relatively high in the top layers(especially near the permafrost table) and at the depths of 7.0–8.0 m. This calculation method will be used in the other areas when the necessary information is available, including landform type, borehole data, and measured water content.

Land use and land cover change and its driving forces in Maqu County, China in the past 25 years

Maqu County is located in the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and it is the main watershed for the Yellow River. The ecosystem there is extremely vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and human activities, which have caused significant deterioration of the eco-environment in this region. In order to restore the ecological environment, a government project to restore the grazing areas to grassland was implemented in Maqu County in early 2004. This study evaluates the effects of that restoration project on land use and land cover change （LUCC）, and explores the driving forces of LUCC in Maqu County. In the study we used Landsat images obtained in 1989, 2004, 2009, and 2014 to establish databases of land use and land cover. Then we derived LUCC information by overlaying these layers using GIS software. Finally, we analyzed the main forces responsible for LUCC. The results showed that forests, high-coverage grasslands, and marshes experienced the most significant decreases during 1989–2004, by 882.8 ha, 35,250.4 ha, and 2,753.4 ha, respectively. However, moderate- and low-coverage grasslands and sand lands showed the opposite trend, increasing by 12,529.7 ha, 25,491.0 ha, and 577.5 ha, respectively. LUCC in 2004–2009 showed that ecological degradation slowed compared with 1989？2004. During 2009–2014, high- and moderate-coverage grasslands increased obviously, but low-coverage grasslands, marshes, unused lands, sand lands, and water areas showed the opposite trend. These results suggested that the degradation of the eco-environment was obvious before 2009, showing a decrease in the forests, grasslands, and water areas, and an increase in unused lands. The ecological degradation was reversed after 2009, as was mainly evidenced by increases in high- and mod-erate-coverage grasslands, and the shrinkage rate of marshes decreased obviously. These results showed that the project of restoring grazing lands to grassland had a positive effect on the LUCC. Other major factors that influence the LUCC include increasing temperature, variation in the seasonal frozen soil environment, seasonal overgrazing, and pest and rodent damage.