Assessment of prediction performances of stochastic models:Monthly groundwater level prediction in Southern Italy

Stochastic modelling of hydrological time series with insufficient length and data gaps is a serious challenge since these problems significantly affect the reliability of statistical models predicting and forecasting skills.In this paper,we proposed a method for searching the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model parameters to predict the behavior of groundwater time series affected by the issues mentioned.Based on the analysis of statistical indices,8 stations among 44 available within the Campania region(Italy)have been selected as the highest quality measurements.Different SARIMA models,with different autoregressive,moving average and differentiation orders had been used.By reviewing the criteria used to determine the consistency and goodness-of-fit of the model,it is revealed that the model with specific combination of parameters,SARIMA(0,1,3)(0,1,2)_(12),has a high R^(2) value,larger than 92%,for each of the 8 selected stations.The same model has also good performances for what concern the forecasting skills,with an average NSE of about 96%.Therefore,this study has the potential to provide a new horizon for the simulation and reconstruction of groundwater time series within the investigated area.

Shoreline evolution and modern beach sand composition along a coastal stretch of the Tyrrhenian Sea, southern Italy

This contribution focuses on a multidisciplinary research showing the geomorphological evolution and the beach sand composition of the Tyrrhenian shoreline between Capo Suvero promontory and Gizzeria Lido village(Calabria,southern Italy). The aim of the geomorphological analysis was to reconstruct the evolutionary shoreline stages and the present-day sedimentary dynamics along approximately 6 km of coastline. The results show a general trend of beach nourishment during the period 1870–2019. In this period, the maximum shoreline accretion value was estimated equal to + 900 m with an average rate of + 6.5 m/yr. Moreover, although the general evolutionary trend is characterized by a remarkable accretion, the geomorphological analysis highlighted continuous modifications of the beaches including erosion processes. The continuous beach modifications occurred mainly between 1953 and1983 and were caused mainly by human activity in the coastal areas and inside the hydrographic basins. The beach sand composition allowed an assessment of the mainland petrological sedimentary province and its dispersal pattern of the present coastal dynamics. Petrographic analysis of beach sands identified a lithic metamorphi-clastic petrofacies, characterized by abundant fine-grained schists and phyllites sourced from the crystalline terrains of the Coastal Range front and carried by the Savuto River. The sand is also composed of a mineral assemblage comparable to that of the Amato River provenance. In terms of framework detrital constituents of QFL(quartz:feldspars:aphanitic lithic fragments) and of essential extraclasts, such as granitoid:sedimentary:metamorphic phaneritic rock fragments(Rg:Rs:Rm), sand maturity changes moderately from backshore to shoreface, suggesting that transport processes had a little effect on sand maturity. Moreover, the modal composition suggests that the Capo Suvero promontory does not obstruct longshore sand transport from the north. Indeed, sands displaced by currents driven by storm-wave activity bypass this rocky headland.

Habitat, occurrence and conservation status of the Saharo-Macaronesian and Southern-Mediterranean element Fagonia cretica L. (Zygophyllaceae) in Italy

Fagonia cretica L. is an important component of Mediterranean dry grasslands and a rare and isolated species of Italian flora. In this study, an assessment is presented on the distribution, habitat, and conservation status of F. cretica in Italy. The results of field investigation and herbarium analysis show that this species grows in a small area within the southern Calabria region characterized by a warmest and driest Mediterranean climate on the Italian peninsula. F. cretica is a semi-desert plant species growing in Italy in only one peripheral and isolated population at the northern limit of its distribution. Plant community analysis, using the phytosociological method, shows that F. cretica grows in wintergreen perennial dry grasslands dominated by Lygeum {partum and Hyparrhenia hirta. F. crelica plant communities are located in thermo-xeric habits such as south-, southeast- and east-facing slopes on clays and sandy clays in southern Calabria. The population of F. cretica is fragmented in six neighbouring localities, with two of which belonging to a Site of Community Importance （SC1）. The conservation status of F. cretica population is not very good, and is defined as ＂Critically Endangered＂ in accordance with IUCN criteria. There are many threats affecting the F. crelica population in ltaly, primarily the changes in land uses due to urban expansion and reforestation with exotic plants. The southern end of the Italian peninsula hosts other plants from thermo-xeric habits that do not adapt to the current local climate. This territory can be considered as a microrefugia for plants currently distributed in the arid territory of the southern Mediterranean. These results contribute to the discussion of some conservation measures, and the possibility of establishing a micro-reserve. For all these reasons, we propose to include F. cretica in the lists of protected plant species at regional （Calabria） and country （Italy） scales in Italy.

Burden of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors on Cerebrovascular Events in a Southern Italian Population

Background: Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and the third due to disability. However, there are few data available that identify the risk factors associated with it and their weight in different populations (population risk). Aim: Contribute to the knowledge of burden risk factors in stroke in a large cohort of Southern Italy. Methods: The data refer to a randomized Campania cohort of 1200 subjects (35 - 74 years) enrolled in 2008-09. Ten years later (2018-19) they were re-evaluated. We analyzed data from 32 patients who reported a cerebrovascular event (stroke or TIA) with the event-free group of subjects (804 subjects: 378 men and 426 women). We evaluated: absolute risk, Odds Ratio (OR), Additional Risk (AR), Risk Attributable to the Population (PAR) and, finally, the Population Attributable risk Fraction (FAP). Results: In the comparison between the two groups (patients with events and patients without events) the risk factors with statistically significant differences were: age, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), BMI, cholesterol, triglycerides, glycemia and hyperinsulinemia. The ORs with the greatest impact were: blood glucose (5.1), BMI (3.3) and BPS (2.9). Linear regression analysis identified Glycemia and BMI as the only independent variables. The FAPs with the greatest impact were SBP (47.4%) and BMI (42.6%). Discussion and Conclusions: Our data confirm that the high incidence of stroke in Campania is particularly related to the high prevalence of obesity and hypertension. In the single patient, however, the risk factors with the greatest impact are: glycaemia BMI an SBP.