The clustering of severe and sustained droughts in Southwest China(SWC)during the last decade has resulted in tremendous losses,including crop failure,a lack of drinking water,ecosystem destruction,health problems,and...The clustering of severe and sustained droughts in Southwest China(SWC)during the last decade has resulted in tremendous losses,including crop failure,a lack of drinking water,ecosystem destruction,health problems,and even deaths.Various attempts have been made to explore the variability and causes of drought in SWC.Here,the authors summarize and integrate this accumulated but fragmented knowledge.On the whole,general agreement has been reached on the evolution of drought in SWC,which has become more frequent and intense during the past 50 years and is projected to continue throughout the 21st century.However,it is unclear and even disputable as to what and how sea surface temperatures and circulation oscillation patterns affect the drought condition.Meanwhile,the presence of strong nonlinearity places considerable challenges in both understanding and predicting drought in SWC.Therefore,much remains to be learned concerning the mechanisms responsible for drought disasters in SWC and accurate forecast practice.In addition to pursuing research on factors and processes involved in drought formation,above all,there is an urgent need to develop appropriate strategies and plans for mitigating the threats of drought.展开更多
The effects of optimized operation principles implemented at reservoirs on the Wujiang River in southwest China between September 2009 and April 2010 under drought conditions were analyzed based on operational data co...The effects of optimized operation principles implemented at reservoirs on the Wujiang River in southwest China between September 2009 and April 2010 under drought conditions were analyzed based on operational data collected from the Guizhou Wujiang Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. A set of linear regression equations was developed to identify the key factors impacting the electric power generation at reservoirs. A 59% reduction in the inflow discharge at the Hongjiadu Reservoir led to a decrease of only 38% in the total electric power generation at the Hongjiadu, Dongfeng, Suofengying, and Wujiangdu reservoirs on the Wujiang River, indicating that optimized operation can play an important role in drought management. The water level and the amount of other water inputs at the Hongjiadu Reservoir and the outflow discharge at all of the reservoirs except the Wujiangdu Reservoir were key factors affecting the total electric power generation at reservoirs on the Wujiang River under optimized operation.展开更多
The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disas...The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC（Environmental Policy Integrated Climate） model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was ＆lt;0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.展开更多
In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the...In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of as- sessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotran- spiration （PET）, due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale： the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.展开更多
In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to be...In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% （10 yr）^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% （10 yr）^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% （10 yr）^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.展开更多
Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurren...Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquakedrought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity(frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change(amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economicpoint of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include(1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making;(2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012;(3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012-2017, helping the government to recognize the development trend of disasters;(4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.展开更多
Water budgets terms, evapotranspiration (E), precipitation (P), runoff (N), moisture convergence (MC) and both surface as well as atmospheric residual terms have been computed with National Centers for Environmental P...Water budgets terms, evapotranspiration (E), precipitation (P), runoff (N), moisture convergence (MC) and both surface as well as atmospheric residual terms have been computed with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (1948-2007) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 (1958-2001) reanalysis data sets for Central Southwest Asia (CSWA).The domain of the study is 45° - 75°E & 25° - 40°N. Only the land area has been used in these calculations. It is noted in the comparison of both reanalysis data sets with Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) that all three data sets record different precipitation before 1970. The maximum is from NCEP and the minimum with ERA-40. However, after 1970 all the data sets record almost the same precipitation. ERA-40 computes two phases of MC. Before 1975, the domain acts as a moisture source, whereas after 1975 it behaves as a moisture sink. The region CSWA is divided into six sub areas with rotational principle factor analysis and we distinguish them by different approached weather systems acting on each area. Finally, NCEP yearly precipitation is further divided into seasons;winter (November to April) and summer (May to October) and two phases have been noted. The variation in winter precipitation is more than summer during last 60-year analysis.展开更多
GRACE(Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment)卫星计划为监测陆地水储量变化提供了有效技术手段.本文采用2003至2010年共计8年的GRACE月重力场模型反演中国西南区域陆地水储量变化,与GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System)...GRACE(Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment)卫星计划为监测陆地水储量变化提供了有效技术手段.本文采用2003至2010年共计8年的GRACE月重力场模型反演中国西南区域陆地水储量变化,与GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System)全球水文模型进行对比分析,其结果在时空分布上均符合较好,同时在2009年秋至2010年春该区域陆地水储量均呈现明显减少,与该时段云贵川三省的干旱事件相一致;比较分析了2009年秋至2010年春GRACE反演陆地水储量变化与TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)合成数据计算的月降雨量的时空分布,两组结果均与西南干旱事件对应时段与区域十分吻合;对近8年的陆地水储量变化与月降雨量数据进行相关性分析,其结果表明陆地水储量变化与降雨量强相关,即降雨量是导致陆地水储量变化的主要因素;分析该区域地表温度变化,结果显示2009年9月至2010年3月地表温度均比历史同期高,地表温度的升高加剧了陆地水储量的减少.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2012CB955604 and 2011CB309704)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41461144001,41230527,41275083,and 91337105)the National Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project of China(Grant No.41425019)
文摘The clustering of severe and sustained droughts in Southwest China(SWC)during the last decade has resulted in tremendous losses,including crop failure,a lack of drinking water,ecosystem destruction,health problems,and even deaths.Various attempts have been made to explore the variability and causes of drought in SWC.Here,the authors summarize and integrate this accumulated but fragmented knowledge.On the whole,general agreement has been reached on the evolution of drought in SWC,which has become more frequent and intense during the past 50 years and is projected to continue throughout the 21st century.However,it is unclear and even disputable as to what and how sea surface temperatures and circulation oscillation patterns affect the drought condition.Meanwhile,the presence of strong nonlinearity places considerable challenges in both understanding and predicting drought in SWC.Therefore,much remains to be learned concerning the mechanisms responsible for drought disasters in SWC and accurate forecast practice.In addition to pursuing research on factors and processes involved in drought formation,above all,there is an urgent need to develop appropriate strategies and plans for mitigating the threats of drought.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51109229)
文摘The effects of optimized operation principles implemented at reservoirs on the Wujiang River in southwest China between September 2009 and April 2010 under drought conditions were analyzed based on operational data collected from the Guizhou Wujiang Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. A set of linear regression equations was developed to identify the key factors impacting the electric power generation at reservoirs. A 59% reduction in the inflow discharge at the Hongjiadu Reservoir led to a decrease of only 38% in the total electric power generation at the Hongjiadu, Dongfeng, Suofengying, and Wujiangdu reservoirs on the Wujiang River, indicating that optimized operation can play an important role in drought management. The water level and the amount of other water inputs at the Hongjiadu Reservoir and the outflow discharge at all of the reservoirs except the Wujiangdu Reservoir were key factors affecting the total electric power generation at reservoirs on the Wujiang River under optimized operation.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41301593 and 41471428)the Arid Meteorology Science Foundation, CMA (IAM201407)the State Key Development Program for BasicResearch of China (Grant No. 2012CB955402)
文摘The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC（Environmental Policy Integrated Climate） model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was ＆lt;0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41230527, 41175079, and 41025017)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of as- sessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotran- spiration （PET）, due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale： the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.
基金supported by the Utah Agricultural Experiment StationUtah State University(approved as journal paper Number 9665)+1 种基金UAES Seed Grant,Water Initiative Extension Grant,the U.S.Department of Interior,Bureau of Reclamation[Grant No.R22AP00220]based upon work supported by the U.S.Geological Survey[Grant No.G21AP10623]through the Utah Center for Water Resources Research at the Utah Water Research Laboratory。
基金jointly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2016YFE0102400 and 2017YFC1502701)the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% （10 yr）^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% （10 yr）^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% （10 yr）^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41671112 and 41861134008)National Key Research and Development Plan(Grant No.2018YFC1505202)Sichuan Province Science and Technology Plan Project Key research and development projects(Grant No.18ZDYF0329)
文摘Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquakedrought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity(frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change(amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economicpoint of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include(1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making;(2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012;(3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012-2017, helping the government to recognize the development trend of disasters;(4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.
文摘Water budgets terms, evapotranspiration (E), precipitation (P), runoff (N), moisture convergence (MC) and both surface as well as atmospheric residual terms have been computed with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (1948-2007) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 (1958-2001) reanalysis data sets for Central Southwest Asia (CSWA).The domain of the study is 45° - 75°E & 25° - 40°N. Only the land area has been used in these calculations. It is noted in the comparison of both reanalysis data sets with Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) that all three data sets record different precipitation before 1970. The maximum is from NCEP and the minimum with ERA-40. However, after 1970 all the data sets record almost the same precipitation. ERA-40 computes two phases of MC. Before 1975, the domain acts as a moisture source, whereas after 1975 it behaves as a moisture sink. The region CSWA is divided into six sub areas with rotational principle factor analysis and we distinguish them by different approached weather systems acting on each area. Finally, NCEP yearly precipitation is further divided into seasons;winter (November to April) and summer (May to October) and two phases have been noted. The variation in winter precipitation is more than summer during last 60-year analysis.
文摘GRACE(Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment)卫星计划为监测陆地水储量变化提供了有效技术手段.本文采用2003至2010年共计8年的GRACE月重力场模型反演中国西南区域陆地水储量变化,与GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System)全球水文模型进行对比分析,其结果在时空分布上均符合较好,同时在2009年秋至2010年春该区域陆地水储量均呈现明显减少,与该时段云贵川三省的干旱事件相一致;比较分析了2009年秋至2010年春GRACE反演陆地水储量变化与TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)合成数据计算的月降雨量的时空分布,两组结果均与西南干旱事件对应时段与区域十分吻合;对近8年的陆地水储量变化与月降雨量数据进行相关性分析,其结果表明陆地水储量变化与降雨量强相关,即降雨量是导致陆地水储量变化的主要因素;分析该区域地表温度变化,结果显示2009年9月至2010年3月地表温度均比历史同期高,地表温度的升高加剧了陆地水储量的减少.
