[Objective] The aim was to study the prediction of summer rainstorm induced by southwest vortex.[Method] Based on 2.5°×2.5° re-analysis data in four time points a day from June to August during 1971-200...[Objective] The aim was to study the prediction of summer rainstorm induced by southwest vortex.[Method] Based on 2.5°×2.5° re-analysis data in four time points a day from June to August during 1971-2008 at 700 hPa in northern hemisphere provided by NECP,rainstorm and southwest vortex from June to August in Guizhou Province were studied systematically,and the forecast data of rainstorm induced by southest vortex was obtained.[Result] Southwest vortex was one of major systems influencing rainstorm in flood season(from June to August),especially in June and July;the occurrence of this kind of rainstorm was closely related to the moving path of southwest vortex,activity of cold air,environmental flow field at 500 hPa,shear line at 850 hPa,southwest jet,position of subtropical high ridge,water vapour conditions,vorticity field,etc.On the basis of factual data,objective forecast system was established and verified by means of similar method and physical diagnosis.The results showed that it was rational to choose upper trough,southwest vortex,conditions of vertical movement,southwest jet,water vapour conditions,etc.as forecast factors;when the center of southwest vortex was located in major key area(100°-105° E,25°-35° N),and secondary key area(105°-108° E,25°-35° N),regional rainstorm occurred most easily,especially in major key area with high frequency of rainstorm.[Conclusion] The study could provide references for the improvement of prediction level of rainstorm induced by southwest vortex,disaster prevention and reduction.展开更多
By using the conventional data,the rainfall data in the automatic weather station and so on,a regional heavy rainstorm which happened in the northwest and north central region of Shandong Province during May 9-10,2009...By using the conventional data,the rainfall data in the automatic weather station and so on,a regional heavy rainstorm which happened in the northwest and north central region of Shandong Province during May 9-10,2009 was analyzed.The results showed that the cooling shear line in low altitude was the main system which caused the heavy rainstorm.The rainstorm mainly happened on the left front of jet stream in low altitude,the right of cooling shear line in low altitude and the northeast quadrant of vortex.The southwest jet stream in the west of subtropical high established a water vapor passage from the South China Sea to the center of North China.It not only provided warm and wet air and energy for the development of heavy rainstorm,but also was the necessary condition which shear line in low altitude stagnated for a long time.Ground frontal cyclone was the trigger mechanism of rainstorm.The northeast wet and cold air joined with the southwest warm and wet air in Shandong after the front,which prompted the development of convection and the release of instable energy to form the rainstorm.展开更多
Based on the data of the National Climate Center of China and the NCEP of the United States, a heavy precipitation process in eastern China during July 26-29, 2022 was analyzed. The results show that: The precipitatio...Based on the data of the National Climate Center of China and the NCEP of the United States, a heavy precipitation process in eastern China during July 26-29, 2022 was analyzed. The results show that: The precipitation process was formed under the influence of the low level southwest jet stream at the edge of the subtropical high. The eastward development of the low vortex and trough and the continuous strengthening of the upper level jet stream, combined with the influence of topographic convergence, provided extremely favorable conditions for the occurrence of the rainstorm.展开更多
采用WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式输出资料、NCEP/NCAR1°×1°再分析资料以及地面站降水资料,对2009年7月31日至8月1日四川省一次暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明:水汽辐合区与降水区基本一致;散度场、水汽通...采用WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式输出资料、NCEP/NCAR1°×1°再分析资料以及地面站降水资料,对2009年7月31日至8月1日四川省一次暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明:水汽辐合区与降水区基本一致;散度场、水汽通量和水汽通量散度对降水具有较好的指示作用。在降水之前的6h中,降水中心上空的大气层结基本稳定,这种层结条件并不利于对流运动发生和发展;但是通过对散度场、非线性平衡方程和理查森数的分析,发现在暴雨开始前存在着中尺度重力波,它激发了对流运动的发展,而对流运动对暴雨的发展起到了主要作用。这说明,在整个暴雨过程中,只有同时考虑中尺度重力波与对流运动的相互作用,才能较完整地解释雨带的强度和特征得以发展和维持的原因。展开更多
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the prediction of summer rainstorm induced by southwest vortex.[Method] Based on 2.5°×2.5° re-analysis data in four time points a day from June to August during 1971-2008 at 700 hPa in northern hemisphere provided by NECP,rainstorm and southwest vortex from June to August in Guizhou Province were studied systematically,and the forecast data of rainstorm induced by southest vortex was obtained.[Result] Southwest vortex was one of major systems influencing rainstorm in flood season(from June to August),especially in June and July;the occurrence of this kind of rainstorm was closely related to the moving path of southwest vortex,activity of cold air,environmental flow field at 500 hPa,shear line at 850 hPa,southwest jet,position of subtropical high ridge,water vapour conditions,vorticity field,etc.On the basis of factual data,objective forecast system was established and verified by means of similar method and physical diagnosis.The results showed that it was rational to choose upper trough,southwest vortex,conditions of vertical movement,southwest jet,water vapour conditions,etc.as forecast factors;when the center of southwest vortex was located in major key area(100°-105° E,25°-35° N),and secondary key area(105°-108° E,25°-35° N),regional rainstorm occurred most easily,especially in major key area with high frequency of rainstorm.[Conclusion] The study could provide references for the improvement of prediction level of rainstorm induced by southwest vortex,disaster prevention and reduction.
文摘By using the conventional data,the rainfall data in the automatic weather station and so on,a regional heavy rainstorm which happened in the northwest and north central region of Shandong Province during May 9-10,2009 was analyzed.The results showed that the cooling shear line in low altitude was the main system which caused the heavy rainstorm.The rainstorm mainly happened on the left front of jet stream in low altitude,the right of cooling shear line in low altitude and the northeast quadrant of vortex.The southwest jet stream in the west of subtropical high established a water vapor passage from the South China Sea to the center of North China.It not only provided warm and wet air and energy for the development of heavy rainstorm,but also was the necessary condition which shear line in low altitude stagnated for a long time.Ground frontal cyclone was the trigger mechanism of rainstorm.The northeast wet and cold air joined with the southwest warm and wet air in Shandong after the front,which prompted the development of convection and the release of instable energy to form the rainstorm.
文摘Based on the data of the National Climate Center of China and the NCEP of the United States, a heavy precipitation process in eastern China during July 26-29, 2022 was analyzed. The results show that: The precipitation process was formed under the influence of the low level southwest jet stream at the edge of the subtropical high. The eastward development of the low vortex and trough and the continuous strengthening of the upper level jet stream, combined with the influence of topographic convergence, provided extremely favorable conditions for the occurrence of the rainstorm.
文摘采用WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式输出资料、NCEP/NCAR1°×1°再分析资料以及地面站降水资料,对2009年7月31日至8月1日四川省一次暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明:水汽辐合区与降水区基本一致;散度场、水汽通量和水汽通量散度对降水具有较好的指示作用。在降水之前的6h中,降水中心上空的大气层结基本稳定,这种层结条件并不利于对流运动发生和发展;但是通过对散度场、非线性平衡方程和理查森数的分析,发现在暴雨开始前存在着中尺度重力波,它激发了对流运动的发展,而对流运动对暴雨的发展起到了主要作用。这说明,在整个暴雨过程中,只有同时考虑中尺度重力波与对流运动的相互作用,才能较完整地解释雨带的强度和特征得以发展和维持的原因。
