Rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus and its variants, especially in metropolitan areas around the world, became a major health public concern. The tendency of COVID-19 pandemic and statistical modelling represents an urg...Rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus and its variants, especially in metropolitan areas around the world, became a major health public concern. The tendency of COVID-19 pandemic and statistical modelling represents an urgent challenge in the United States for which there are few solutions. In this paper, we demonstrate combining Fourier terms for capturing seasonality with ARIMA errors and other dynamics in the data. Therefore, we have analyzed 156 weeks COVID-19 dataset on national level using Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including simulation analysis and accuracy improvement from 2020 to 2023. Most importantly, we provide new advanced pathways which may serve as targets for developing new solutions and approaches.展开更多
Time series forecasting and analysis are widely used in many fields and application scenarios.Time series historical data reflects the change pattern and trend,which can serve the application and decision in each appl...Time series forecasting and analysis are widely used in many fields and application scenarios.Time series historical data reflects the change pattern and trend,which can serve the application and decision in each application scenario to a certain extent.In this paper,we select the time series prediction problem in the atmospheric environment scenario to start the application research.In terms of data support,we obtain the data of nearly 3500 vehicles in some cities in China fromRunwoda Research Institute,focusing on the major pollutant emission data of non-road mobile machinery and high emission vehicles in Beijing and Bozhou,Anhui Province to build the dataset and conduct the time series prediction analysis experiments on them.This paper proposes a P-gLSTNet model,and uses Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA),long and short-term memory(LSTM),and Prophet to predict and compare the emissions in the future period.The experiments are validated on four public data sets and one self-collected data set,and the mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)are selected as the evaluationmetrics.The experimental results show that the proposed P-gLSTNet fusion model predicts less error,outperforms the backbone method,and is more suitable for the prediction of time-series data in this scenario.展开更多
Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a major threat to the availability of Web service. The inherent presence of self-similarity in Web traffic motivates the applicability of time series analysis in the st...Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a major threat to the availability of Web service. The inherent presence of self-similarity in Web traffic motivates the applicability of time series analysis in the study of the burst feature of DDoS attack. This paper presents a method of detecting DDoS attacks against Web server by analyzing the abrupt change of time series data obtained from Web traffic. Time series data are specified in reference sliding window and test sliding window, and the abrupt change is modeled using Auto-Regressive (AR) process. By comparing two adjacent nonoverlapping windows of the time series, the attack traffic could be detected at a time point. Combined with alarm correlation and location correlation, not only the presence of DDoS attack, but also its occurring time and location can be deter mined. The experimental results in a test environment are illustrated to justify our method.展开更多
Financial time series forecasting could be beneficial for individual as well as institutional investors. But, the high noise and complexity residing in the financial data make this job extremely challenging. Over the ...Financial time series forecasting could be beneficial for individual as well as institutional investors. But, the high noise and complexity residing in the financial data make this job extremely challenging. Over the years, many researchers have used support vector regression (SVR) quite successfully to conquer this challenge. In this paper, an SVR based forecasting model is proposed which first uses the principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the low-dimensional and efficient feature information, and then uses the independent component analysis (ICA) to preprocess the extracted features to nullify the influence of noise in the features. Experiments were carried out based on 16 years’ historical data of three prominent stocks from three different sectors listed in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh. The predictions were made for 1 to 4 days in advance targeting the short term prediction. For comparison, the integration of PCA with SVR (PCA-SVR), ICA with SVR (ICA-SVR) and single SVR approaches were applied to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the proposed approach. Experimental results show that the proposed model (PCA-ICA-SVR) outperforms the PCA-SVR, ICA-SVR and single SVR methods.展开更多
The primary objective of the paper is to forecast the beta values of companies listed on Sensex,Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE).The BSE Sensex constitutes 30 top most companies listed which are popularly known as blue-chip...The primary objective of the paper is to forecast the beta values of companies listed on Sensex,Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE).The BSE Sensex constitutes 30 top most companies listed which are popularly known as blue-chip companies.To reach out the predefined objectives of the research,Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average method is used to forecast the future risk and returns for 10 years of historical data from April 2007 to March 2017.Validation accomplished by comparison of forecasted and actual beta values for the hold back period of 2 years.Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Error both are used for accuracy measurement.The results revealed that out of 30 listed companies in the BSE Sensex,10 companies’exhibits high beta values,12 companies are with moderate and 8 companies are with low beta values.Further,it is to note that Housing Development Finance Corporation(HDFC)exhibits more inconsistency in terms of beta values though the average beta value is lowest among the companies under the study.A mixed trend is found in forecasted beta values of the BSE Sensex.In this analysis,all the p-values are less than the F-stat values except the case of Tata Steel and Wipro.Therefore,the null hypotheses were rejected leaving Tata Steel and Wipro.The values of actual and forecasted values are showing the almost same results with low error percentage.Therefore,it is concluded from the study that the estimation ARIMA could be acceptable,and forecasted beta values are accurate.So far,there are many studies on ARIMA model to forecast the returns of the stocks based on their historical data.But,hardly there are very few studies which attempt to forecast the returns on the basis of their beta values.Certainly,the attempt so made is a novel approach which has linked risk directly with return.On the basis of the present study,authors try to through light on investment decisions by linking it with beta values of respective stocks.Further,the outcomes of the present study undoubtedly useful to academicians,researchers,and policy makers in their respective area of studies.展开更多
针对滑坡位移难以预测、影响因素难以选择等问题,提出一种结合了二次移动平均(DMA)法、变分模态分解(VMD)、改进灰狼优化(IGWO)算法与支持向量回归(SVR)的模型进行滑坡位移预测。首先,利用DMA提取滑坡位移趋势项和周期项,采用多项式拟...针对滑坡位移难以预测、影响因素难以选择等问题,提出一种结合了二次移动平均(DMA)法、变分模态分解(VMD)、改进灰狼优化(IGWO)算法与支持向量回归(SVR)的模型进行滑坡位移预测。首先,利用DMA提取滑坡位移趋势项和周期项,采用多项式拟合对趋势项进行预测;其次,对滑坡周期项的影响因素进行分类,采用VMD对原始影响因子序列进行分解获得最优序列;再次,提出一种结合SVR与基于改进Circle多策略的灰狼优化算法CTGWO-SVR(Circle Tactics Grey Wolf Optimizer with SVR)对滑坡周期项进行预测;最后采用时间序列加法模型求出累计位移预测序列,并采用灰色预测的后验证差校验和小概率误差对模型进行评价。实验结果表明,与GA-SVR和GWO-SVR模型相比,CTGWO-SVR的预测精度更高,拟合度达到0.979,均方根误差分别减小了51.47%与59.25%,预测精度等级为一级,可满足滑坡预测的实时性和准确性要求。展开更多
In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the...In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.展开更多
To analyze and simulate non-stationary time series with finite length, the statistical characteris- tics and auto-regressive (AR) models of non-stationary time series with finite length are discussed and stud- ied. ...To analyze and simulate non-stationary time series with finite length, the statistical characteris- tics and auto-regressive (AR) models of non-stationary time series with finite length are discussed and stud- ied. A new AR model called the time varying parameter AR model is proposed for solution of non-stationary time series with finite length. The auto-covariances of time series simulated by means of several AR models are analyzed. The result shows that the new AR model can be used to simulate and generate a new time series with the auto-covariance same as the original time series. The size curves of cocoon filaments re- garded as non-stationary time series with finite length are experimentally simulated. The simulation results are significantly better than those obtained so far, and illustrate the availability of the time varying parameter AR model. The results are useful for analyzing and simulating non-stationary time series with finite length.展开更多
In this paper, autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series. We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models: the full order TVPAR model, the t...In this paper, autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series. We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models: the full order TVPAR model, the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TV-PAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series. Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.展开更多
The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 3...The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 30 stocks are choosen from Shangzheng 50 stocks and are testified whether the prices of Shanghai stocks conform to the two models. With the technique of time series and panel data analysis, the research on the stock risk and effective portfolio by ORIGIN and MATLAB software is conducted. The result shows that Shanghai stock market conforms to Markowitz Mean-Variance Model to a certain extent and can give investors reliable suggestion to gain higher return, but there is no positive relation between system risk and profit ratio and CAPM doesn't function well in China's security market.展开更多
文摘Rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus and its variants, especially in metropolitan areas around the world, became a major health public concern. The tendency of COVID-19 pandemic and statistical modelling represents an urgent challenge in the United States for which there are few solutions. In this paper, we demonstrate combining Fourier terms for capturing seasonality with ARIMA errors and other dynamics in the data. Therefore, we have analyzed 156 weeks COVID-19 dataset on national level using Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including simulation analysis and accuracy improvement from 2020 to 2023. Most importantly, we provide new advanced pathways which may serve as targets for developing new solutions and approaches.
基金the Beijing Chaoyang District Collaborative Innovation Project(No.CYXT2013)the subject support of Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Key R&D Program-Capital Blue Sky Action Cultivation Project(Z19110900910000)+1 种基金“Research and Demonstration ofHigh Emission Vehicle Monitoring Equipment System Based on Sensor Integration Technology”(Z19110000911003)This work was supported by the Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University(No.ZK80202103).
文摘Time series forecasting and analysis are widely used in many fields and application scenarios.Time series historical data reflects the change pattern and trend,which can serve the application and decision in each application scenario to a certain extent.In this paper,we select the time series prediction problem in the atmospheric environment scenario to start the application research.In terms of data support,we obtain the data of nearly 3500 vehicles in some cities in China fromRunwoda Research Institute,focusing on the major pollutant emission data of non-road mobile machinery and high emission vehicles in Beijing and Bozhou,Anhui Province to build the dataset and conduct the time series prediction analysis experiments on them.This paper proposes a P-gLSTNet model,and uses Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA),long and short-term memory(LSTM),and Prophet to predict and compare the emissions in the future period.The experiments are validated on four public data sets and one self-collected data set,and the mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)are selected as the evaluationmetrics.The experimental results show that the proposed P-gLSTNet fusion model predicts less error,outperforms the backbone method,and is more suitable for the prediction of time-series data in this scenario.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Funda-tion of China (60373075)
文摘Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a major threat to the availability of Web service. The inherent presence of self-similarity in Web traffic motivates the applicability of time series analysis in the study of the burst feature of DDoS attack. This paper presents a method of detecting DDoS attacks against Web server by analyzing the abrupt change of time series data obtained from Web traffic. Time series data are specified in reference sliding window and test sliding window, and the abrupt change is modeled using Auto-Regressive (AR) process. By comparing two adjacent nonoverlapping windows of the time series, the attack traffic could be detected at a time point. Combined with alarm correlation and location correlation, not only the presence of DDoS attack, but also its occurring time and location can be deter mined. The experimental results in a test environment are illustrated to justify our method.
文摘Financial time series forecasting could be beneficial for individual as well as institutional investors. But, the high noise and complexity residing in the financial data make this job extremely challenging. Over the years, many researchers have used support vector regression (SVR) quite successfully to conquer this challenge. In this paper, an SVR based forecasting model is proposed which first uses the principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the low-dimensional and efficient feature information, and then uses the independent component analysis (ICA) to preprocess the extracted features to nullify the influence of noise in the features. Experiments were carried out based on 16 years’ historical data of three prominent stocks from three different sectors listed in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh. The predictions were made for 1 to 4 days in advance targeting the short term prediction. For comparison, the integration of PCA with SVR (PCA-SVR), ICA with SVR (ICA-SVR) and single SVR approaches were applied to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the proposed approach. Experimental results show that the proposed model (PCA-ICA-SVR) outperforms the PCA-SVR, ICA-SVR and single SVR methods.
文摘The primary objective of the paper is to forecast the beta values of companies listed on Sensex,Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE).The BSE Sensex constitutes 30 top most companies listed which are popularly known as blue-chip companies.To reach out the predefined objectives of the research,Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average method is used to forecast the future risk and returns for 10 years of historical data from April 2007 to March 2017.Validation accomplished by comparison of forecasted and actual beta values for the hold back period of 2 years.Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Error both are used for accuracy measurement.The results revealed that out of 30 listed companies in the BSE Sensex,10 companies’exhibits high beta values,12 companies are with moderate and 8 companies are with low beta values.Further,it is to note that Housing Development Finance Corporation(HDFC)exhibits more inconsistency in terms of beta values though the average beta value is lowest among the companies under the study.A mixed trend is found in forecasted beta values of the BSE Sensex.In this analysis,all the p-values are less than the F-stat values except the case of Tata Steel and Wipro.Therefore,the null hypotheses were rejected leaving Tata Steel and Wipro.The values of actual and forecasted values are showing the almost same results with low error percentage.Therefore,it is concluded from the study that the estimation ARIMA could be acceptable,and forecasted beta values are accurate.So far,there are many studies on ARIMA model to forecast the returns of the stocks based on their historical data.But,hardly there are very few studies which attempt to forecast the returns on the basis of their beta values.Certainly,the attempt so made is a novel approach which has linked risk directly with return.On the basis of the present study,authors try to through light on investment decisions by linking it with beta values of respective stocks.Further,the outcomes of the present study undoubtedly useful to academicians,researchers,and policy makers in their respective area of studies.
文摘针对滑坡位移难以预测、影响因素难以选择等问题,提出一种结合了二次移动平均(DMA)法、变分模态分解(VMD)、改进灰狼优化(IGWO)算法与支持向量回归(SVR)的模型进行滑坡位移预测。首先,利用DMA提取滑坡位移趋势项和周期项,采用多项式拟合对趋势项进行预测;其次,对滑坡周期项的影响因素进行分类,采用VMD对原始影响因子序列进行分解获得最优序列;再次,提出一种结合SVR与基于改进Circle多策略的灰狼优化算法CTGWO-SVR(Circle Tactics Grey Wolf Optimizer with SVR)对滑坡周期项进行预测;最后采用时间序列加法模型求出累计位移预测序列,并采用灰色预测的后验证差校验和小概率误差对模型进行评价。实验结果表明,与GA-SVR和GWO-SVR模型相比,CTGWO-SVR的预测精度更高,拟合度达到0.979,均方根误差分别减小了51.47%与59.25%,预测精度等级为一级,可满足滑坡预测的实时性和准确性要求。
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 60573065)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China (Grant No Y2007G33)the Key Subject Research Foundation of Shandong Province,China(Grant No XTD0708)
文摘In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No. L0313419913)
文摘To analyze and simulate non-stationary time series with finite length, the statistical characteris- tics and auto-regressive (AR) models of non-stationary time series with finite length are discussed and stud- ied. A new AR model called the time varying parameter AR model is proposed for solution of non-stationary time series with finite length. The auto-covariances of time series simulated by means of several AR models are analyzed. The result shows that the new AR model can be used to simulate and generate a new time series with the auto-covariance same as the original time series. The size curves of cocoon filaments re- garded as non-stationary time series with finite length are experimentally simulated. The simulation results are significantly better than those obtained so far, and illustrate the availability of the time varying parameter AR model. The results are useful for analyzing and simulating non-stationary time series with finite length.
基金supported by the Doctoral Research Fund of the Ministry of Education, China (Grant No.20040285008)Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports andCulture, Japan, 2005 (Grant No. 17300228)
文摘In this paper, autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series. We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models: the full order TVPAR model, the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TV-PAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series. Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.
基金Supported by Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Y604137)Student Research Training Program in Zhejiang University
文摘The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 30 stocks are choosen from Shangzheng 50 stocks and are testified whether the prices of Shanghai stocks conform to the two models. With the technique of time series and panel data analysis, the research on the stock risk and effective portfolio by ORIGIN and MATLAB software is conducted. The result shows that Shanghai stock market conforms to Markowitz Mean-Variance Model to a certain extent and can give investors reliable suggestion to gain higher return, but there is no positive relation between system risk and profit ratio and CAPM doesn't function well in China's security market.