A changing mosaic of natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades. To determine the cause of change and li...A changing mosaic of natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades. To determine the cause of change and linkage between human activities and environmental change can prove problematic. Subsequently, there is a need to produce projections of future environments based on planning instruments and socio-economic parameters. Scenarios of potential future land use land cover (LULC) change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on many environmental issues. This study creates future scenarios for the year 2030 from baseline land use of 2001, relative to three projected land use scenarios which include differences related to conservation, planning, and development. The future growth scenarios were created using the ArcGIS tool, Prescott Spatial Growth Model (PSGM). The model allows users to build different future growth scenarios based on socio-economic projections such as population, employment and other controlling factors. The simulation results indicate that LULC changes associated with future urbanization can increase by ~23% - 43% within the FRW, which will lead to significant environmental issues if not managed properly. The overall analysis and model results demonstrate the ability of future growth scenarios to explore and evaluate options for a future environment. Spatial modeling and analysis tools, such as PSGM, provide a powerful approach to evaluate potential impacts of LULC change in the future and should be used to manage urbanization in areas with more intense development.展开更多
Urbanization changes have been widely examined and numerous urban growth models have been proposed. We introduce an alternative urban growth model specifically designed to incorporate spatial heterogeneity in urban gr...Urbanization changes have been widely examined and numerous urban growth models have been proposed. We introduce an alternative urban growth model specifically designed to incorporate spatial heterogeneity in urban growth models. Instead of applying a single method to the entire study area, we segment the study area into different regions and apply targeted algorithms in each subregion. The working hypothesis is that the integration of appropriately selected region-specific models will outperform a globally applied model as it will incorporate further spatial heterogeneity. We examine urban land use changes in Denver, Colorado. Two land use maps from different time snapshots (1977 and 1997) are used to detect the urban land use changes, and 23 explanatory factors are produced to model urbanization. The proposed Spatially Heterogeneous Expert Based (SHEB) model tested decision trees as the underlying modeling algorithm, applying them in different subregions. In this paper the segmentation tested is the division of the entire area into interior and exterior urban areas. Interior urban areas are those situated within dense urbanized structures, while exterior urban areas are outside of these structures. Obtained results on this model regionalization technique indicate that targeted local models produce improved results in terms of Kappa, accuracy percentage and multi-scale performance. The model superiority is also confirmed by model pairwise comparisons using t-tests. The segmentation criterion of interior/exterior selection may not only capture specific characteristics on spatial and morphological properties, but also socioeconomic factors which may implicitly be present in these spatial representations. The usage of interior and exterior subregions in the present study acts as a proof of concept. Other spatial heterogeneity indicators, for example landscape, socioeconomic and political boundaries could act as the basis for improved local segmentations.展开更多
This paper makes an empirical analysis of the spatial spillover effect of regional economic growth by using Moran’s I and Spatial Durbin Model to study the input and output of technological progress, with the panel d...This paper makes an empirical analysis of the spatial spillover effect of regional economic growth by using Moran’s I and Spatial Durbin Model to study the input and output of technological progress, with the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the spatial autocorrelation exists in the economic development of Guangdong Province, and both the input and output of scientific research innovation have a significant positive effect on the regional economic growth. Under the spatial contiguity weights matrix, the output of scientific research and innovation has a more obvious spillover effect on the economic growth of neighboring cities than the input of scientific research and innovation.展开更多
The existing models of population distribution often focus on the region with a single city or even multiple centers,and lack the detailed explorations of the common and special type of urbanization areas with two cen...The existing models of population distribution often focus on the region with a single city or even multiple centers,and lack the detailed explorations of the common and special type of urbanization areas with two centers Taking Beijing-Tia njin region of China,which is a distinct dual-nuclei metropolitan area in the world,as an example and choosing Landsat-5 TM image in 2005,population,etc.as the data,this paper devotes to comprehending and illustrating a model of Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities through the research of spatial population distribution pattern,aided with RS and GIS techniques.Main technical processes include Kriging interpolation of the population data and character simulation of the Cassini ovals.According to the calculation of a/b,a key characteristic index ofCassini growth model,the spatial structures ofpopulation distribution were given.When a/b<1, it is a curve with two separated loops with a population density more than 3000 persons/km2.When a/b=1,it is a lem- niscate curve with a population density about 3000 persons/km2.When 1<a/b<2～(1/2),it is a dog-bone shaped concave curve with a population density between 500-3000 persons/km2.Whena/b=2～(1/2),it is an oblate curve with a population density about 500 persons/km2.Whena/b>2～(1/2),there is an oval-shaped convex curve with a population density less than 500 persons/km2. The results show that owing to the combined action and influence of the regional dual-nuclei,the population distribution of Beijing-Tianjin region is in accord with Cassini model significantly.Therefore,there is Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities in Beijing-Tianjin region.In addition, the process of Cassini growth has extraordinarily instructive significance for judging the development stages of the dual-nuclei metropolitan areas.展开更多
This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimensio...This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. T = S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T=S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.展开更多
文摘A changing mosaic of natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades. To determine the cause of change and linkage between human activities and environmental change can prove problematic. Subsequently, there is a need to produce projections of future environments based on planning instruments and socio-economic parameters. Scenarios of potential future land use land cover (LULC) change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on many environmental issues. This study creates future scenarios for the year 2030 from baseline land use of 2001, relative to three projected land use scenarios which include differences related to conservation, planning, and development. The future growth scenarios were created using the ArcGIS tool, Prescott Spatial Growth Model (PSGM). The model allows users to build different future growth scenarios based on socio-economic projections such as population, employment and other controlling factors. The simulation results indicate that LULC changes associated with future urbanization can increase by ~23% - 43% within the FRW, which will lead to significant environmental issues if not managed properly. The overall analysis and model results demonstrate the ability of future growth scenarios to explore and evaluate options for a future environment. Spatial modeling and analysis tools, such as PSGM, provide a powerful approach to evaluate potential impacts of LULC change in the future and should be used to manage urbanization in areas with more intense development.
文摘Urbanization changes have been widely examined and numerous urban growth models have been proposed. We introduce an alternative urban growth model specifically designed to incorporate spatial heterogeneity in urban growth models. Instead of applying a single method to the entire study area, we segment the study area into different regions and apply targeted algorithms in each subregion. The working hypothesis is that the integration of appropriately selected region-specific models will outperform a globally applied model as it will incorporate further spatial heterogeneity. We examine urban land use changes in Denver, Colorado. Two land use maps from different time snapshots (1977 and 1997) are used to detect the urban land use changes, and 23 explanatory factors are produced to model urbanization. The proposed Spatially Heterogeneous Expert Based (SHEB) model tested decision trees as the underlying modeling algorithm, applying them in different subregions. In this paper the segmentation tested is the division of the entire area into interior and exterior urban areas. Interior urban areas are those situated within dense urbanized structures, while exterior urban areas are outside of these structures. Obtained results on this model regionalization technique indicate that targeted local models produce improved results in terms of Kappa, accuracy percentage and multi-scale performance. The model superiority is also confirmed by model pairwise comparisons using t-tests. The segmentation criterion of interior/exterior selection may not only capture specific characteristics on spatial and morphological properties, but also socioeconomic factors which may implicitly be present in these spatial representations. The usage of interior and exterior subregions in the present study acts as a proof of concept. Other spatial heterogeneity indicators, for example landscape, socioeconomic and political boundaries could act as the basis for improved local segmentations.
文摘This paper makes an empirical analysis of the spatial spillover effect of regional economic growth by using Moran’s I and Spatial Durbin Model to study the input and output of technological progress, with the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the spatial autocorrelation exists in the economic development of Guangdong Province, and both the input and output of scientific research innovation have a significant positive effect on the regional economic growth. Under the spatial contiguity weights matrix, the output of scientific research and innovation has a more obvious spillover effect on the economic growth of neighboring cities than the input of scientific research and innovation.
基金Under the auspices of National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No. 2007AAl22235)National Natural Science Foundation ofChina(No.40471058)
文摘The existing models of population distribution often focus on the region with a single city or even multiple centers,and lack the detailed explorations of the common and special type of urbanization areas with two centers Taking Beijing-Tia njin region of China,which is a distinct dual-nuclei metropolitan area in the world,as an example and choosing Landsat-5 TM image in 2005,population,etc.as the data,this paper devotes to comprehending and illustrating a model of Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities through the research of spatial population distribution pattern,aided with RS and GIS techniques.Main technical processes include Kriging interpolation of the population data and character simulation of the Cassini ovals.According to the calculation of a/b,a key characteristic index ofCassini growth model,the spatial structures ofpopulation distribution were given.When a/b<1, it is a curve with two separated loops with a population density more than 3000 persons/km2.When a/b=1,it is a lem- niscate curve with a population density about 3000 persons/km2.When 1<a/b<2～(1/2),it is a dog-bone shaped concave curve with a population density between 500-3000 persons/km2.Whena/b=2～(1/2),it is an oblate curve with a population density about 500 persons/km2.Whena/b>2～(1/2),there is an oval-shaped convex curve with a population density less than 500 persons/km2. The results show that owing to the combined action and influence of the regional dual-nuclei,the population distribution of Beijing-Tianjin region is in accord with Cassini model significantly.Therefore,there is Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities in Beijing-Tianjin region.In addition, the process of Cassini growth has extraordinarily instructive significance for judging the development stages of the dual-nuclei metropolitan areas.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences and National Key Technologies R &D Program in the 10th Five-Ycar Plan of china(2001BA901A40)
文摘This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. T = S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T=S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.
