Spatio-Temporal Changes of Soil Salinity in Arid Areas of South Xinjiang Using Electromagnetic Induction

The aim of this paper was to research the spatio-temporal changes in total soluble salt content （TS） in a typical arid region of South Xinjiang, China, where the climate is arid and soil salinization happens easily. The total soluble salt content was interpreted by measurements made in the horizontal mode with EM38 and EM31. The electromagnetic induction （EM） surveys were made three times with the apparent soil electrical conductivity （ECa） measurements taken at 3 873 locations in Nov. 2008, 4 807 locations in Apr. 2009 and 6 324 locations in Nov. 2009, respectively. For interpreting the ECa measurements into total soluble salt content, calibtion sites were needed for EM survey of each time, e.g., 66 sites were selected in Nov. 2008 to measure ECa, and soils-core samples were taken by different depth layers of 0-10, 10-20 and 20-40 cm at the same time. On every time duplicate samples were taken at five sites to allevaite the local-scale variability, and soil temperatures in different layers through the profiles were also measured. Factors including TS, pH, water content, bulk density were analyzed by lab experiments. ECa calibration equations were obtained by linear regression analysis, which indicated that soil salinity was one primary concern to ECa with a determination coefficient of 0.792 in 0-10 cm layer, 0.711 in 10-20 cm layer and 0.544 in 20-40 cm layer, respectively. The maps of spatial distribution were predicted by Kriging interpolation, which showed that the high soil salinity was located near the drainage canal, which validated the trend effect caused by the irrigation canal and the drainage canal. And by comparing the soil salinity in different layers, the soluble salt accumulated to the top soil surface only in the area where the soil salinization was serious, and in the other areas, the soil salinity trended to increase from the top soil surface to 40 cm depth. Temporal changes showed that the soil salinity in November was higher than that in April, and the soil salinization trended to aggravate, especially in the top soil layer of 0-10 cm.

Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Changes of Sustainable Land Use in Tibet

By constructing evaluation indicator system of sustainable land use of Tibet from three aspects of ecological environment, economic development, resources and social advancement, this article studies the following contents respectively in two dimensions of time and space： the changes of sustainable land use of Tibet in recent 20 years and spatial characteristics of sustainable land use of Tibet in 2002. The following conclusions can be drawn from evaluation results .① With regard to com- prehensive evaluation value of sustainable land use, the trend of Tibet sustainable land use evaluation values from 1983 to 2002 are very close to the comprehensive evaluation values of ecological environment, which is up trend; ② sustainable utilization degree of land use in eastern region of Tibet is much higher than that of western region. ③ the sustainable land use evaluation value of Nyingtri County is the highest, and the counties with relatively higher land sustainable use values include Lhasa, Lhoka, Chamdo. While Nakchu, Ngari, Shigatse counties have the relatively lower evaluation values; ④ By analyzing each evaluation indicator＇s weight on sustainable land use, it can be concluded that the key limiting factors of sustainable Tibet land resource utilization are land desertification, grassland degradation and low economic level.

Analysis of spatio-temporal changes in forest biomass in China

Forests play a central role in the global carbon cycle.China's forests have a high carbon sequestration potential owing to their wide distribution,young age and relatively low carbon density.Forest biomass is an essential variable for assessing carbon sequestration capacity,thus determining the spatio-temporal changes of forest biomass is critical to the national carbon budget and to contribute to sustainable forest management.Based on Chinese forest inventory data(1999–2013),this study explored spatial patterns of forest biomass at a grid resolution of 1 km by applying a downscaling method and further analyzed spatiotemporal changes of biomass at different spatial scales.The main findings are:(1)the regression relationship between forest biomass and the associated infuencing factors at a provincial scale can be applied to estimate biomass at a pixel scale by employing a downscaling method;(2)forest biomass had a distinct spatial pattern with the greatest biomass occurring in the major mountain ranges;(3)forest biomass changes had a notable spatial distribution pattern;increase(i.e.,carbon sinks)occurred in east and southeast China,decreases(i.e.,carbon sources)were observed in the northeast to southwest,with the largest biomass losses in the Hengduan Mountains,Southern Hainan and Northern Da Hinggan Mountains;and,(4)forest vegetation functioned as a carbon sink during 1999–2013 with a net increase in biomass of 3.71 Pg.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China （NEC） and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. To do so, the CLUE-S （conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent） model was ifrst updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods： 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes. Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010. The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude. This conifrmed that climate change, increases in temperature in particular, greatly inlfuenced the shift in the rice planting area. The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1＆#176;C isoline migration pattern, but with an obvious time-lag effect. These ifndings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC.

Spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires during 2008-2016 in Khanh Hoa coal field(North-east of Viet Nam) using Landsat time-series data

Underground coal fires are one of the most common and serious geohazards in most coal producing countries in the world. Monitoring their spatio-temporal changes plays an important role in controlling and preventing the effects of coal fires, and their environmental impact. In this study, the spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires in Khanh Hoa coal field(North-East of Viet Nam) were analyzed using Landsat time-series data during the 2008-2016 period. Based on land surface temperatures retrieved from Landsat thermal data, underground coal fires related to thermal anomalies were identified using the MEDIAN+1.5×IQR(IQR: Interquartile range) threshold technique. The locations of underground coal fires were validated using a coal fire map produced by the field survey data and cross-validated using the daytime ASTER thermal infrared imagery. Based on the fires extracted from seven Landsat thermal imageries, the spatiotemporal changes of underground coal fire areas were analyzed. The results showed that the thermalanomalous zones have been correlated with known coal fires. Cross-validation of coal fires using ASTER TIR data showed a high consistency of 79.3%. The largest coal fire area of 184.6 hectares was detected in 2010, followed by 2014(181.1 hectares) and 2016(178.5 hectares). The smaller coal fire areas were extracted with areas of 133.6 and 152.5 hectares in 2011 and 2009 respectively. Underground coal fires were mainly detected in the northern and southern part, and tend to spread to north-west of the coal field.

Spatio-temporal Changes and Associated Uncertainties of CENTURYmodelled SOC for Chinese Upland Soils, 1980-2010

Detailed information on the spatio-temporal changes of cropland soil organic carbon(SOC) can significantly contribute to the improvement of soil fertility and mitigate climate change. Nonetheless, information and knowledge on the national scale spatio-temporal changes and the corresponding uncertainties of SOC in Chinese upland soils remain limited. The CENTURY model was used to estimate the SOC storages and their changes in Chinese uplands from 1980 to 2010. With the Monte Carlo method, the uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC dynamics associated with the spatial heterogeneous model inputs were quantified. Results revealed that the SOC storage in Chinese uplands increased from 3.03(1.59 to 4.78) Pg C in 1980 to 3.40(2.39 to 4.62) Pg C in 2010. Increment of SOC storage during this period was 370 Tg C, with an uncertainty interval of –440 to 1110 Tg C. The regional disparities of SOC changes reached a significant level, with considerable SOC accumulation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China and SOC loss in the northeastern China. The SOC lost from Meadow soils, Black soils and Chernozems was most severe, whilst SOC accumulation in Fluvo-aquic soils, Cinnamon soils and Purplish soils was most significant. In modelling large-scale SOC dynamics, the initial soil properties were major sources of uncertainty. Hence, more detailed information concerning the soil properties must be collected. The SOC stock of Chinese uplands in 2010 was still relatively low, manifesting that recommended agricultural management practices in conjunction with effectively economic and policy incentives to farmers for soil fertility improvement were indispensable for future carbon sequestration in these regions.

Integrated approach for understanding spatio-temporal changes in forest resource distribution in the central Himalaya

Intense anthropogenic exploitation has altered distribution of forest resources. This change was analyzed using visual interpretation of satellite data of 1979, 1999 and 2009. Field and interactive social surveys were conducted to identify spatial trends in forest degradation and data were mapped on forest cover and land use maps. Perceptions of villagers were compiled in a pictorial representation to understand changes in forest resource distribution in central Himalaya from 1970 to 2010. For- ested areas were subject to degradation and isolation due to loss of con- necting forest stands. Species like Lantana camara and Eupatorium adenophorum invaded forest landscapes. Intensity of human pressure differed by forest type and elevation. An integrated approach is needed to monitor forest resource distribution and disturbance.

Spatio-temporal changes of exposure and vulnerability to floods in China

A socio-economic data set on China's historical flood losses for the period 1984e2012 was compiled to analyze the exposed population,economy,and crop area as well as the vulnerabilities of the population and economy to floods.The results revealed that the exposed population was approximately 126 persons km 2per year when taking China as a whole;in terms of the economy,potential losses due to floods were estimated to be approximately 1.49 million CN$km 2and the crop area exposed to floods covered 153 million hm2per year.China's total exposure to floods significantly increased over the analysis period.The areas that showed the higher exposure were mainly located along the east coast.The population's vulnerability to floods showed a significantly increasing trend,however,the economic vulnerability showed a decreasing trend.The populations and economies that were most vulnerable to floods were in Hunan,Anhui,Chongqing,Jiangxi,and Hubei provinces.The municipalities of Shanghai,Beijing,and Tianjin showed the lowest vulnerabilities to floods.

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Changes of Land Usein Xuzhou City Based on Remote Sensing

Based on the satellite remote sensing TM/ETM images of Xuzhou city, basic data about land use of the city from 1994 to 2000 are obtained with the neural network classification module of PCI software, and the dynamic con- version matrix of land use is thus calculated. The areas of construction land and water body have increased by 1833.93 hm2 and 804.87 hm2, respectively. On the contrary, the area of cropland has decreased by 3207.24 hm2. The area of cropland converted into construction land makes up 26.84%, and that converted into water body amounts for 8.17% of the total area of cropland in 1994. The variation index of land use degree and the dynamic degree index of land use computed are 1.38 and 57.81%, respectively, which demonstrate that land use in Xuzhou is in a development period and the changes are drastic. The frequency index and importance index of the form in which cropland converted into con- struction land are 29.91% and 68.93% respectively. The results indicate that the change is not only widespread in space but a major form of spatial change of land use in the area.

Spatio-Temporal Change of Dispersal Areas of Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) in Lake Bogoria Landscape, Kenya

Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last four decades. Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) is endemic to Lake Bogoria landscape in Baringo County and constitutes a major tourist attraction for the region necessitating use of its photo on the County’s logo and thus a flagship species. Tourism plays a central role in Baringo County’s economy and is a major source of potential growth and employment creation. The study was carried out to assess spatio-temporal change of dispersal areas of Greater Kudu (GK) in Lake Bogoria landscape in the last four years for enhanced adaptive management and improved livelihoods. GK population distribution primary data collected in December 2022 and secondary data acquired from Lake Bogoria National Game Reserve (LBNGR) for 2019 and 2020 were digitized using in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Measures of dispersion and point pattern analysis (PPA) were used to analyze dispersal of GK population using GIS. Spatio-temporal change of GK dispersal in LBNR was evident thus the null hypothesis was rejected. It is recommended that anthropogenic activities contributing to GK’s habitat degradation be curbed by providing alternative livelihood sources and promoting community adoption of sustainable technologies for improved livelihoods.

Spatio-temporal variations of shallow seismic velocity changes in Salton Sea Geothermal Field,California in response to large regional earthquakes and long-term geothermal activities

We measure spatio-temporal variations of seismic velocity changes in Salton Sea Geothermal Field,California based on cross correlations of daily seismic traces recorded by a borehole seismic network from December 2007 to January 2014.We find clear co-seismic velocity reductions during the 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah,Mexico earthquake at~100 km further south,followed by long-term recoveries.The co-seismic reductions are larger with longer post-seismic recoveries in higher frequency bands,indicating that material damage and healing process mostly occurred in the shallow depth.In addition,the co-seismic velocity reductions are larger for ray paths outside the active fluid injection/extraction regions.The ray paths inside injection/extraction regions are associated with smaller co-seismic reductions,but subtle long-term velocity increases.We also build 3D transient water flow models based on monthly injection/extraction rates,and find correlations between several water flow parameters and co-seismic velocity reductions.We interpret the relative lack of co-seismic velocity changes within the geothermal region as unclogging of fracture network due to persistent fluid flows of geothermal production.The long-term velocity increase is likely associated with the ground water depletion and subsidence due to net production.

Spatio-temporal variations in trends of vegetation and drought changes in relation to climate variability from 1982 to 2019 based on remote sensing data from East Asia

Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.

Improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method for hull deformation

In this paper,an improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method is presented to address the inertial matching measurement of hull deformation under the coexistence of time delay and large misalignment angle.Large misalignment angle and time delay often occur simultaneously and bring great challenges to the accurate measurement of hull deformation in space and time.The proposed method utilizes coarse alignment with large misalignment angle and time delay estimation of inertial measurement unit modeling to establish a brand-new spatiotemporal aligned hull deformation measurement model.In addition,two-step loop control is designed to ensure the accurate description of dynamic deformation angle and static deformation angle by the time-space alignment method of hull deformation.The experiments illustrate that the proposed method can effectively measure the hull deformation angle when time delay and large misalignment angle coexist.

An Intelligent Framework for Resilience Recovery of FANETs with Spatio-Temporal Aggregation and Multi-Head Attention Mechanism

Due to the time-varying topology and possible disturbances in a conflict environment,it is still challenging to maintain the mission performance of flying Ad hoc networks(FANET),which limits the application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)swarms in harsh environments.This paper proposes an intelligent framework to quickly recover the cooperative coveragemission by aggregating the historical spatio-temporal network with the attention mechanism.The mission resilience metric is introduced in conjunction with connectivity and coverage status information to simplify the optimization model.A spatio-temporal node pooling method is proposed to ensure all node location features can be updated after destruction by capturing the temporal network structure.Combined with the corresponding Laplacian matrix as the hyperparameter,a recovery algorithm based on the multi-head attention graph network is designed to achieve rapid recovery.Simulation results showed that the proposed framework can facilitate rapid recovery of the connectivity and coverage more effectively compared to the existing studies.The results demonstrate that the average connectivity and coverage results is improved by 17.92%and 16.96%,respectively compared with the state-of-the-art model.Furthermore,by the ablation study,the contributions of each different improvement are compared.The proposed model can be used to support resilient network design for real-time mission execution.

Climate Changes and Sustainability

Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.

The Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)Project in Central Asia:The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project

Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy.By its nature of intensive water use,agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change.Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region.Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack,which are the foundation of the region’s water resources,and a changing precipitation regime.Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,leading to transboundary water resource issues.Summer already has extremely high temperatures.Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing.The warming is expected to increase,but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios.Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type,amount,and distribution.Regional Hydroclimate Projects(RHPs)are an approach to studying these issues.Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues.It was followed up with an online workshop and then,in 2023,an in-person workshop,held in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)project for the region include both observations and modeling,as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations,all of which are topics for the next workshop.A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.

Seasonal changes in Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus) song syntax

In many songbird species,birdsong features phonological syntax,meaning that the units within their vocal se-quences are ordered in a non-random way that adheres to a rule.While such syntactical patterns have been richly described in many species,comparatively little is known about how those patterns contribute to song achieving its important functions.For each of song’s main functions,territorial defense and mate attraction,evidence of a role for syntax is limited.One species for which syntax has been thoroughly described is the Hermit Thrush(Catharus guttatus),which presents song types from their repertoires in a semi-predictable order and,in doing so,rapidly cycle up and down the frequency spectrum.The objective of the present study was to explore the importance of song syntax in the Hermit Thrush through a within-subject examination of how measures of syntax,such as the predictability of song type order within song sequences,shift over the breeding season.We hypothesized that,if such syntactical characteristics are important to breeding behaviour,they would be most prominent at the start of the breeding season when activity associated with territory establishment and mate attraction is most intense.Analysis revealed that,as predicted,the rigidness of song type ordering within se-quences was highest at the start of the season and declined thereafter.That song type sequences were most predictable at the vitally important early part of the breeding season fit our hypothesis that this aspect of song syntax is important to song’s functions related to territory establishment and/or mate attraction.Future work will clarify whether that role relates to one of song’s two main functions or serves song transmission in some broader way.

Changes in Spring Snow Cover over the Eastern and Western Tibetan Plateau and Their Associated Mechanism

The spring snow cover(SC)over the western Tibetan Plateau(TP)(TPSC)(W_TPSC)and eastern TPSC(E_TPSC)have displayed remarkable decreasing and increasing trends,respectively,during 1985–2020.The current work investigates the possible mechanisms accounting for these distinct TPSC changes.Our results indicate that the decrease in W_TPSC is primarily attributed to rising temperatures,while the increase in E_TPSC is closely linked to enhanced precipitation.Local circulation analysis shows that the essential system responsible for the TPSC changes is a significant anticyclonic system centered over the northwestern TP.The anomalous descending motion and adiabatic heating linked to this anticyclone leads to warmer temperatures and consequent snowmelt over the western TP.Conversely,anomalous easterly winds along the southern flank of this anticyclone serve to transport additional moisture from the North Pacific,leading to an increase in snowfall over the eastern TP.Further analysis reveals that the anomalous anticyclone is associated with an atmospheric wave pattern that originates from upstream regions.Springtime warming of the subtropical North Atlantic(NA)sea surface temperature(SST)induces an atmospheric pattern resembling a wave train that travels eastward across the Eurasian continent before reaching the TP.Furthermore,the decline in winter sea ice(SIC)over the Barents Sea exerts a persistent warming influence on the atmosphere,inducing an anomalous atmospheric circulation that propagates southeastward and strengthens the northwest TP anticyclone in spring.Additionally,an enhancement of subtropical stationary waves has resulted in significant increases in easterly moisture fluxes over the coastal areas of East Asia,which further promotes more snowfall over eastern TP.

Precipitation and anthropogenic activities regulate the changes of NDVI in Zhegucuo Valley on the southern Tibetan Plateau

Whether climate change or anthropogenic activities play a more pivotal role in regulating vegetation growth on the Tibetan Plateau is still controversial.A better understanding on grassland changes at a fine scale may provide important guidance for local government policy and grassland management.Using two of the most reliable satellite NDVI products(MODIS NDVI and SPOT NDVI),we evaluated the dynamic of grasslands in the Zhegucuo valley on the southern Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2020,and analyzed its driving factors and relative influences of climate change and anthropogenic activities.Here,the key indicators of climate change were assumed to be precipitation and temperature.The main results were:(1)the grassland NDVI in Zhegucuo valley did not reflect a significant temporal change during the last 21 years.The variation of precipitation during the early growing season(GSP)resembled that of NDVI,and the GSP was positively correlated with NDVI.At the pixel level,the partial correlation analysis showed that 37.79%of the pixels depicted a positive relationship between GSP and NDVI,while 11.32%of the pixels showed a negative relationship between temperature during the early growing season(GST)and NDVI.(2)In view of the spatial distribution,the areas mainly controlled by GSP were generally distributed in the southern part,while those affected by GST stood in the eastern part,mainly around the Zhegucuo lake where most population in Cuomei County settled down.(3)Decreasing NDVI trends were mainly occurred in alpine steppe at lower elevations rather than alpine meadow at higher elevations.(4)The residual trend(RESTREND)analysis further indicated that the anthropogenic activities played a more pivotal role in regulating the annual changes of NDVI rather than climate factors in this area.Future studies should pay more attention on climate extremes rather than the simple temporal trends.Also,the influence of human activities on alpine grassland needs to be accessed and fully considered in future sustainable management.

Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff plays a pivotal role in water resource management and maintaining ecosystem integrity.This study considered six sub-basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin,China,to reveal the trend of the runoff evolution and clarify the driving factors of the changes during 1956–2020.Linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,and sliding t-test were used to study the trend of the hydrometeorological elements,while cumulative distance level and ordered clustering methods were applied to identify mutation points.The contributions of climate change and human disturbance to runoff changes were quantitatively assessed using three methods,i.e.,the rainfall-runoff relationship method,slope variation method,and variable infiltration capacity(Budyko)hypothesis method.Then,the availability and stability of the three methods were compared.The results showed that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited a decreasing trend from 1956 to 2020,with an abrupt change in 1985.For attribution analysis,the runoff series could be divided into two phases,i.e.,1961–1985(baseline period)and 1986–2020(changing period);and it was found that the rainfall-runoff relationship method with precipitation as the representative of climate factors had limited usability compared with the other two methods,while the slope variation and Budyko hypothesis methods had highly consistent results.Different factors showed different effects in the sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.Moreover,human disturbance was the main factor that contributed to the runoff changes,accounting for 53.0%–82.0%;and the contribution of climate factors to the runoff change was 17.0%–47.0%,making it the secondary factor,in which precipitation was the most representative climate factor.These results provide insights into how climate and anthropogenic changes synergistically influence the runoff of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.