Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Modeling in Disease Mapping

Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex and this complexity has led many to oversimply and model the spatial and temporal dependencies independently. Unlike common practice, this study formulated a new spatio-temporal model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accounts for spatial and temporal dependencies jointly. The spatial and temporal dependencies were dynamically modelled via the matern exponential covariance function. The temporal aspect was captured by the parameters of the exponential with a first-order autoregressive structure. Inferences about the parameters were obtained via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and the spatio-temporal maps were obtained by mapping stable posterior means from the specific location and time from the best model that includes the significant risk factors. The model formulated was fitted to both simulation data and Kenya meningitis incidence data from 2013 to 2019 along with two covariates;Gross County Product (GCP) and average rainfall. The study found that both average rainfall and GCP had a significant positive association with meningitis occurrence. Also, regarding geographical distribution, the spatio-temporal maps showed that meningitis is not evenly distributed across the country as some counties reported a high number of cases compared with other counties.

Spatio-temporal model for soil characteristic of reclamation land

The development of spatio-temporal data model is introduced. According to the soil characteristic of reclamation land, we adopt the base state with amendments model of multi-layer raster to organize the spatio-temporal data, using the combined data structure on linear quadtree and linear octree to code. The advantage of this model is that it can easily obtain the information of certain layer and integratedly analyze the data with other methods. Then, the methods of obtain and analyses are introduced. The method can provide a tool for the research of the soil characteristic change and spatial distribution in reclamation land.

The spatio-temporal models of periodic marketing in rural China

Periodic marketing is a unique and imporant socio-economic feature of Chinese ruraltowns, the economic, political, social and cultural centres in rural areas. Through two detailed casestudies in the North China Plain in 1990, mis paper examined the temporal and spatialcharacteristics, especially their interrelationship. of regional periodic market systems and theirrelationship with rural development in modern China. The distribution of periodic market-towns isfound to be on consumer convenience, and to have an apparent hierarchical structure and centralplace characteristics. Further, the spatial coordination system of periodic marketing has a reverserelationship of spatio-temporal synchronisation. Finally, this paper notes that periodic marketingimposes significant influence on rural development through conducting and controlling goods flow and population flow in rural economic system.

A cloud model target damage effectiveness assessment algorithm based on spatio-temporal sequence finite multilayer fragments dispersion

To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis.

Multi-Scale Location Attention Model for Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Disease Incidence

Due to the increasingly severe challenges brought by various epidemic diseases,people urgently need intelligent outbreak trend prediction.Predicting disease onset is very important to assist decision-making.Most of the exist-ing work fails to make full use of the temporal and spatial characteristics of epidemics,and also relies on multi-variate data for prediction.In this paper,we propose a Multi-Scale Location Attention Graph Neural Networks(MSLAGNN)based on a large number of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)patient electronic medical records research sequence source data sets.In order to understand the geography and timeliness of infec-tious diseases,specific neural networks are used to extract the geography and timeliness of infectious diseases.In the model framework,the features of different periods are extracted by a multi-scale convolution module.At the same time,the propagation effects between regions are simulated by graph convolution and attention mechan-isms.We compare the proposed method with the most advanced statistical methods and deep learning models.Meanwhile,we conduct comparative experiments on data sets with different time lengths to observe the predic-tion performance of the model in the face of different degrees of data collection.We conduct extensive experi-ments on real-world epidemic-related data sets.The method has strong prediction performance and can be readily used for epidemic prediction.

Traveling Wave Solutions of a SIR Epidemic Model with Spatio-Temporal Delay

In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.

Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Local Context for a Contextualized Diffusion of Agroecological Intensification Options in Niger

Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view to sustainable development. The territorial scale of municipalities is not sufficient for this necessary contextualization;the scale of the “village terroir” seems to be a better option. This is the hypothesis we put forward in the framework of the Global Collaboration for Resilient Food Systems program (CRFS), i.e. local context is spatially defined by village terroir. The study is based on data collected through participatory mapping and surveys in “village terroirs” in three regions of Niger (Maradi, Dosso and Tillabéri). Then the links between farm managers and their cultivated land, as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of local context are analyzed. This study provides evidence of the existence and functional usefulness of the village terroir for farmers, their land management and their activities. It demonstrates the usefulness of contextualizing agricultural options at this scale. Their analysis elucidates the links between “terroirs village” and the specific functioning of the agrosocio-ecosystems acting on each of them, thus laying the systemic and geographical foundations for a model of the spatio- temporal dynamics of “village terroirs”. This initial work has opened up new perspectives in modeling and sustainable development.

Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on InVEST model

Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the quality of ecosystem.The Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in the ecological protection of the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin.To comprehensively analysis the alterations of habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin,this study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to calculate the habitat quality index and analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of habitat quality in the study area from 2000 to 2022,and calculated seven landscape pattern indices(number of patches,patch density,largest patch index(LPI),landscape shape index(LSI),contagion index(CONTAG),Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index)to research the variation of landscape pattern in the study area.The results showed that the number of patches,patch density,LPI,LSI,Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index increased from 2000 to 2022,while the CONTAG decreased,indicating that the landscape pattern in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin changed in the direction of distribution fragmentation,shape complexity,and heterogeneity.The average value of the habitat quality index in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 was 0.90.Based on the value of habitat quality index,we divided the level of habitat quality into five categories:lower(0.00-0.20),low(0.20-0.40),moderate(0.40-0.60),high(0.60-0.80),and higher(0.80-1.00).Most areas were at the higher habitat quality level.The lower habitat quality patches were mainly distributed in Longyang Gorge and Yellow River-Huangshui River Valley.From 2000 to 2022,the habitat quality in most areas was stable;the increase areas were mainly distributed in Guinan County,while the decrease areas were mainly distributed in Xining City,Maqen County,Xinghai County,Qumarleb County,and Darlag County.To show the extent of habitat quality variation,we calculated Sen index.The results showed that the higher habitat quality area had a decrease trending,while other categories had an increasing tendency,and the decreasing was faster than increasing.The research results provide scientific guidance for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin.

Improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method for hull deformation

In this paper,an improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method is presented to address the inertial matching measurement of hull deformation under the coexistence of time delay and large misalignment angle.Large misalignment angle and time delay often occur simultaneously and bring great challenges to the accurate measurement of hull deformation in space and time.The proposed method utilizes coarse alignment with large misalignment angle and time delay estimation of inertial measurement unit modeling to establish a brand-new spatiotemporal aligned hull deformation measurement model.In addition,two-step loop control is designed to ensure the accurate description of dynamic deformation angle and static deformation angle by the time-space alignment method of hull deformation.The experiments illustrate that the proposed method can effectively measure the hull deformation angle when time delay and large misalignment angle coexist.

Epidemic Characteristics and Spatio-Temporal Patterns of HFRS in Qingdao City,China,2010-2022

Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.

Dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network for COVID-19 forecasting

Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.

An Intelligent Framework for Resilience Recovery of FANETs with Spatio-Temporal Aggregation and Multi-Head Attention Mechanism

Due to the time-varying topology and possible disturbances in a conflict environment,it is still challenging to maintain the mission performance of flying Ad hoc networks(FANET),which limits the application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)swarms in harsh environments.This paper proposes an intelligent framework to quickly recover the cooperative coveragemission by aggregating the historical spatio-temporal network with the attention mechanism.The mission resilience metric is introduced in conjunction with connectivity and coverage status information to simplify the optimization model.A spatio-temporal node pooling method is proposed to ensure all node location features can be updated after destruction by capturing the temporal network structure.Combined with the corresponding Laplacian matrix as the hyperparameter,a recovery algorithm based on the multi-head attention graph network is designed to achieve rapid recovery.Simulation results showed that the proposed framework can facilitate rapid recovery of the connectivity and coverage more effectively compared to the existing studies.The results demonstrate that the average connectivity and coverage results is improved by 17.92%and 16.96%,respectively compared with the state-of-the-art model.Furthermore,by the ablation study,the contributions of each different improvement are compared.The proposed model can be used to support resilient network design for real-time mission execution.

Warhead fragments motion trajectories tracking and spatio-temporal distribution reconstruction method based on high-speed stereo photography

High speed photography technique is potentially the most effective way to measure the motion parameter of warhead fragment benefiting from its advantages of high accuracy,high resolution and high efficiency.However,it faces challenge in dense objects tracking and 3D trajectories reconstruction due to the characteristics of small size and dense distribution of fragment swarm.To address these challenges,this work presents a warhead fragments motion trajectories tracking and spatio-temporal distribution reconstruction method based on high-speed stereo photography.Firstly,background difference algorithm is utilized to extract the center and area of each fragment in the image sequence.Subsequently,a multi-object tracking(MOT)algorithm using Kalman filtering and Hungarian optimal assignment is developed to realize real-time and robust trajectories tracking of fragment swarm.To reconstruct 3D motion trajectories,a global stereo trajectories matching strategy is presented,which takes advantages of epipolar constraint and continuity constraint to correctly retrieve stereo correspondence followed by 3D trajectories refinement using polynomial fitting.Finally,the simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately track the motion trajectories and reconstruct the spatio-temporal distribution of 1.0×10^(3)fragments in a field of view(FOV)of 3.2 m×2.5 m,and the accuracy of the velocity estimation can achieve 98.6%.

Self-Attention Spatio-Temporal Deep Collaborative Network for Robust FDIA Detection in Smart Grids

False data injection attack(FDIA)can affect the state estimation of the power grid by tampering with the measured value of the power grid data,and then destroying the stable operation of the smart grid.Existing work usually trains a detection model by fusing the data-driven features from diverse power data streams.Data-driven features,however,cannot effectively capture the differences between noisy data and attack samples.As a result,slight noise disturbances in the power grid may cause a large number of false detections for FDIA attacks.To address this problem,this paper designs a deep collaborative self-attention network to achieve robust FDIA detection,in which the spatio-temporal features of cascaded FDIA attacks are fully integrated.Firstly,a high-order Chebyshev polynomials-based graph convolution module is designed to effectively aggregate the spatio information between grid nodes,and the spatial self-attention mechanism is involved to dynamically assign attention weights to each node,which guides the network to pay more attention to the node information that is conducive to FDIA detection.Furthermore,the bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network is introduced to conduct time series modeling and long-term dependence analysis for power grid data and utilizes the temporal selfattention mechanism to describe the time correlation of data and assign different weights to different time steps.Our designed deep collaborative network can effectively mine subtle perturbations from spatiotemporal feature information,efficiently distinguish power grid noise from FDIA attacks,and adapt to diverse attack intensities.Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can obtain an efficient detection performance over actual load data from New York Independent System Operator(NYISO)in IEEE 14,IEEE 39,and IEEE 118 bus systems,and outperforms state-of-the-art FDIA detection schemes in terms of detection accuracy and robustness.

Spatio-Temporal Change of Dispersal Areas of Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) in Lake Bogoria Landscape, Kenya

Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last four decades. Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) is endemic to Lake Bogoria landscape in Baringo County and constitutes a major tourist attraction for the region necessitating use of its photo on the County’s logo and thus a flagship species. Tourism plays a central role in Baringo County’s economy and is a major source of potential growth and employment creation. The study was carried out to assess spatio-temporal change of dispersal areas of Greater Kudu (GK) in Lake Bogoria landscape in the last four years for enhanced adaptive management and improved livelihoods. GK population distribution primary data collected in December 2022 and secondary data acquired from Lake Bogoria National Game Reserve (LBNGR) for 2019 and 2020 were digitized using in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Measures of dispersion and point pattern analysis (PPA) were used to analyze dispersal of GK population using GIS. Spatio-temporal change of GK dispersal in LBNR was evident thus the null hypothesis was rejected. It is recommended that anthropogenic activities contributing to GK’s habitat degradation be curbed by providing alternative livelihood sources and promoting community adoption of sustainable technologies for improved livelihoods.

Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Green Spaces in the Central Urban Area of Zunyi City

Green space,as a medium for carrying out urban functions and guiding urban development,is becoming a scarce resource along with the urbanization process and the intensification of environmental problems.In the face of the spatial mismatch between high demand and low supply,it is of great significance to clarify the evolution mechanism of green space to undertake national spatial planning,protect the natural strategic resources in the urban fringe area,and promote the sustainable development of the“three living spaces.”The study focuses on the Zunyi City Center,selecting the 20 years of rapid development following its establishment as a city as the study period.It explores the dynamic evolution of green space and the main driving forces during different periods using remote-sensing image data.The study shows that from 2003 to 2023,the total scale of green space has an obvious decreasing trend along with the expansion of the urban built-up area.A large amount of arable land is being converted to construction land,resulting in a sudden decrease in arable land area.In the past 10 years,the comprehensive land use dynamics have accelerated.Still,the spatial difference has gradually narrowed,indicating that the overall development intensity of Zunyi City’s central urban area has increased.There is a gradual spread of the trend to the hilly areas.The limiting effect of the mountainous natural environment on the city’s development has gradually diminished under the superposition of external factors,such as economic development,industrial technological upgrading,and policy orientation so the importance of the effective protection and rational utilization of urban green space has become more prominent.

Infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk in Anhui Province based on sixteen year’s longitudinal surveillance data:a spatio-temporal modelling study

Background Urbanization greatly afects the natural and social environment of human existence and may have a multifactoral impact on parasitic diseases.Schistosomiasis,a common parasitic disease transmitted by the snail Oncomelania hupensis,is mainly found in areas with population aggregations along rivers and lakes where snails live.Previous studies have suggested that factors related to urbanization may infuence the infection risk of schistosomiasis,but this association remains unclear.This study aimed to analyse the efect of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk from a spatial and temporal perspective in the endemic areas along the Yangtze River Basin in China.Methods County-level schistosomiasis surveillance data and natural environmental factor data covering the whole Anhui Province were collected.The urbanization level was characterized based on night-time light data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System(DMSP-OLS)and the National Polar-Orbiting Partnership’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite(NPP-VIIRS).The geographically and temporally weighted regression model(GTWR)was used to quantify the infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk with the other potential risk factors controlled.The regression coefcient of urbanization was tested for signifcance(α=0.05),and the infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk was analysed over time and across space based on signifcant regression coefcients.Variables studied included climate,soil,vegetation,hydrology and topography.Results The mean regression coefcient for urbanization(0.167)is second only to the leached soil area(0.300),which shows that the urbanization is the most important infuence factors for schistosomiasis infection risk besides leached soil area.The other important variables are distance to the nearest water source(0.165),mean minimum temperature(0.130),broadleaf forest area(0.105),amount of precipitation(0.073),surface temperature(0.066),soil bulk density(0.037)and grassland area(0.031).The infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk showed a decreasing trend year by year.During the study period,the signifcant coefcient of urbanization level increased from−0.205 to−0.131.Conclusions The infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection has spatio-temporal heterogeneous.The urbanization does reduce the risk of schistosomiasis infection to some extend,but the strength of this infuence decreases with increasing urbanization.Additionally,the efect of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk was greater than previous reported natural environmental factors.This study provides scientifc basis for understanding the infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis,and also provides the feasible research methods for other similar studies to answer the issue about the impact of urbanization on disease risk.

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Winter Urban Heat Island:A Case Study of Rapid Urbanization Area of Fuzhou City,China

Under the influence of anthropogenic and climate change,the problems caused by urban heat island(UHI)has become increasingly prominent.In order to promote urban sustainable development and improve the quality of human settlements,it is significant for exploring the evolution characteristics of urban thermal environment and analyzing its driving forces.Taking the Landsat series images as the basic data sources,the winter land surface temperature(LST)of the rapid urbanization area of Fuzhou City in China was quantitatively retrieved from 2001 to 2021.Combing comprehensively the standard deviation ellipse model,profile analysis and GeoDetector model,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the winter urban thermal environment were systematically analyzed.The results showed that the winter LST presented an increasing trend in the study area during 2001–2021,and the winter LST of the central urban regions was significantly higher than the suburbs.There was a strong UHI effect from 2001 to 2021with an expansion trend from the central urban regions to the suburbs and coastal areas in space scale.The LST of green lands and wetlands are significantly lower than croplands,artificial surface and unvegetated lands.Vegetation and water bodies had a significant mitigation effect on UHI,especially in the micro-scale.The winter UHI had been jointly driven by the underlying surface and socio-economic factors in a nonlinear or two-factor interactive enhancement mode,and socio-economic factors had played a leading role.This research could provide data support and decision-making references for rationally planning urban layout and promoting sustainable urban development.

Spatio-temporal variation of depth to groundwater level and its driving factors in arid and semi-arid regions of India

Climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities,such as over-exploitation of groundwater,are exerting unavoidable stress on groundwater resources.This study investigated the spatio-temporal variation of depth to groundwater level(DGWL)and the impacts of climatic(precipitation,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature)and anthropogenic(gross district product(GDP),population,and net irrigated area(NIA))variables on DGWL during 1994-2020.The study considered DGWL in 113 observation wells and piezometers located in arid western plains(Barmer and Jodhpur districts)and semi-arid eastern plains(Jaipur,Ajmer,Dausa,and Tonk districts)of Rajasthan State,India.Statistical methods were employed to examine the annual and seasonal patterns of DGWL,and the generalized additive model(GAM)was used to determine the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic variables on DGWL.During 1994-2020,except for Barmer District,where the mean annual DGWL was almost constant(around 26.50 m),all other districts exhibited increase in DGWL,with Ajmer District experiencing the most increase.The results also revealed that 36 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant annual increasing trend in DGWL and 34 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend in DGWL.Similarly,32 observation wells and piezometers showed an statistically significant increasing trend and 37 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in winter;33 observation wells and piezometers indicated a statistically significant increasing trend and 34 had a statistically significant decreasing trend in post-monsoon;35 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend and 32 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in pre-monsoon;and 36 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant increasing trend and 30 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant decreasing trend in monsoon.Interestingly,most of the observation wells and piezometers with increasing trends of DGWL were located in Dausa and Jaipur districts.Furthermore,the GAM analysis revealed that climatic variables,such as precipitation,significantly affected DGWL in Barmer District,and DGWL in all other districts was influenced by anthropogenic variables,including GDP,NIA,and population.As a result,stringent regulations should be implemented to curb excessive groundwater extraction,manage agricultural water demand,initiate proactive aquifer recharge programs,and strengthen sustainable management in these water-scarce regions.

Spatio-temporal Heterogeneity in the Performance of Rural Revitalization in Chifeng City of China:Based on a Range-wide EBM-GML Model

To solve the problems of rural revitalization performance research,a quantitative model of non-oriented range-wide EBM(Epsilon-Based Measure)-GML(Global-Malmquist)based on VRS(Variable Returns to Scale)conditions including non-desired outputs is constructed.A comprehensive spatio-temporal heterogeneity research index system of rural revitalization performance is also constructed.Taking the typical rural in Chifeng City as an example,the panel data from 2016-2020 are selected for empirical analysis,the conclusions and countermeasures are suggested as follows:1)In general,the rural revitalization performance of Chifeng City increases significantly during the five-year period,with significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity.The overall analysis shows that the overall performance value of rural revitalization in Chifeng City is 0.683 from 2016 to 2020.The highest performance value is 1 and the lowest performance value is 0.389.The performance growth rate increases year by year,with an average annual growth rate of 4.46%.2)From 2016 to 2020,the GML index of rural revitalization performance in Chifeng City is 1.174,showing an increasing trend.Based on the range of change of GML index,Chifeng City can be classified into three types:Continuous improvement,fluctuating improvement and fluctuating decline.3)Niujiayingzi,Guandongche,Zhaidamu,and Qiangangtai rural have the highest degree of technological progress.