The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel（S...The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel（Scomber japonicus） in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China＇s mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature（SST）, gradient of the sea surface temperature（GSST）, sea surface height（SSH） and geostrophic velocity（GV）, we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve（AUC） attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.展开更多
On the basis of the data of oceanographic survey in the East China Sea in four seasons during 1997-2000 (23°30'~33°00'N, 118°30'-128°E), the variation of total biomass and diet biomass ...On the basis of the data of oceanographic survey in the East China Sea in four seasons during 1997-2000 (23°30'~33°00'N, 118°30'-128°E), the variation of total biomass and diet biomass of zooplankton and their spatial-temporal distribution and relationship with the fishing ground of Engraulis japonicus are approached and analyzed. The results show that the average biomass is 65.32 mg/m3 in four seasons, autumn (86.18 mg/m3) being greater than summer (69.18 mg/m3) greater than spring (55.67 mg/m3) greater than winter (50.33 mg/m3). The average value of diet zooplankton biomass is 40.9 mg/m3. The trends of horizontal distribution both in the total biomass and the diet biomass of zooplankton are similar. The high biomass region (250-500 mg/m3) is very limited, only accounting for 1% of the investigation area. Seasonal variation of the biomass is very remarkable in the west and north parts of East China Sea coastal waters ( 29°30'N,125°E). The horizontal distribution of diet zooplankton depends on the abundance distribution of crustacean. The distribution of diet zooplankton is related to the fishing ground of Engraulis japonicus and the high-density area of young fish and larval. In spring, the central fishing ground of Engraulis japonicus (>100 kg/h) and the high-density area of young fish and larval (>100 individuals per net) are located at the same place of high-density (100-250 mg/m3)area of diet zooplankton in the middle-southern part of East China Sea or the edge of its waters.展开更多
Quantitative distribution of planktonic amphipoda in the East China Sea is analyzed and the relation with environmental factors and mackerel and scad fishing grounds is studied. The result shows that the characteristi...Quantitative distribution of planktonic amphipoda in the East China Sea is analyzed and the relation with environmental factors and mackerel and scad fishing grounds is studied. The result shows that the characteristic of biomass is great seasonal and interannual variety during the passing three decades. The distribution of planktonic amphipoda basically reflects the movement, decay and intensification of the different water systems in the survey area.展开更多
为提高东、黄海鲐鱼渔场预报准确率、降低渔业生产成本,研究提出了一种基于提升回归树的渔场预报模型。研究采用2003—2010年我国大型灯光围网渔捞日志数据,以有网次记录的小渔区为渔场,以渔捞日志未记录的区域作为背景场随机选择假定...为提高东、黄海鲐鱼渔场预报准确率、降低渔业生产成本,研究提出了一种基于提升回归树的渔场预报模型。研究采用2003—2010年我国大型灯光围网渔捞日志数据,以有网次记录的小渔区为渔场,以渔捞日志未记录的区域作为背景场随机选择假定非渔场数据,以海表水温等环境因子作为预测变量构建东、黄海鲐鱼渔场预报模型并以2011年的实际作业记录对预报模型进行精度验证。验证计算得到预报模型的AUC(area under receiver operating curve)值为0.897,表明模型的预报精度较高。模型的空间预测结果表明,预报渔场与实际作业位置基本吻合,其位置移动也与实际情况相符。这表明基于提升回归树的渔场预报模型可以用来进行东、黄海鲐鱼渔场的预报。展开更多
根据1999-2008年东海区渔业资源底拖网大面定点调查获取的小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)渔业生物学资料,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)与BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion),对小黄鱼的Ricker、Beverton-Holt和Cushing繁...根据1999-2008年东海区渔业资源底拖网大面定点调查获取的小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)渔业生物学资料,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)与BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion),对小黄鱼的Ricker、Beverton-Holt和Cushing繁殖模型进行了拟合优度检验。针对选择的繁殖模型,经单因子相关分析和逐步回归分析,筛选对繁殖模型有重要影响的环境因子,经模型的拟合和检验,确定东海区小黄鱼的适用繁殖模型。结果表明:3种繁殖模型中,Ricker繁殖模型更适合模拟小黄鱼亲体与补充量关系,但吕泗渔场海域3-4月平均海水表温、7月海水表温和5月长江径流量、7-8月长江平均径流量以及当年夏季风速对模型中的补充量有着重要的影响;优化后的Ricker繁殖模型不仅可以提高东海区小黄鱼亲鱼量与补充量的拟合精度,而且可参考该模型修正当年度小黄鱼的资源管理目标,提高资源管理的科学性。展开更多
基金The National High Technology Research and Development Program(863 Program)of China under contract No.2012AA092301the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract No.20155014+1 种基金the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2013BAD13B01the Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commissionof China under contract No.14ZZ147
文摘The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel（Scomber japonicus） in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China＇s mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature（SST）, gradient of the sea surface temperature（GSST）, sea surface height（SSH） and geostrophic velocity（GV）, we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve（AUC） attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.
基金This study was supported by the National Key Science Foundation Research“973"Project of the Ministry of Science Technology of China under contract No.G19990437.
文摘On the basis of the data of oceanographic survey in the East China Sea in four seasons during 1997-2000 (23°30'~33°00'N, 118°30'-128°E), the variation of total biomass and diet biomass of zooplankton and their spatial-temporal distribution and relationship with the fishing ground of Engraulis japonicus are approached and analyzed. The results show that the average biomass is 65.32 mg/m3 in four seasons, autumn (86.18 mg/m3) being greater than summer (69.18 mg/m3) greater than spring (55.67 mg/m3) greater than winter (50.33 mg/m3). The average value of diet zooplankton biomass is 40.9 mg/m3. The trends of horizontal distribution both in the total biomass and the diet biomass of zooplankton are similar. The high biomass region (250-500 mg/m3) is very limited, only accounting for 1% of the investigation area. Seasonal variation of the biomass is very remarkable in the west and north parts of East China Sea coastal waters ( 29°30'N,125°E). The horizontal distribution of diet zooplankton depends on the abundance distribution of crustacean. The distribution of diet zooplankton is related to the fishing ground of Engraulis japonicus and the high-density area of young fish and larval. In spring, the central fishing ground of Engraulis japonicus (>100 kg/h) and the high-density area of young fish and larval (>100 individuals per net) are located at the same place of high-density (100-250 mg/m3)area of diet zooplankton in the middle-southern part of East China Sea or the edge of its waters.
基金This study was supported by the National Essential Foundation Study Progress Plan“973”of China under contract No.G 1999043700.
文摘Quantitative distribution of planktonic amphipoda in the East China Sea is analyzed and the relation with environmental factors and mackerel and scad fishing grounds is studied. The result shows that the characteristic of biomass is great seasonal and interannual variety during the passing three decades. The distribution of planktonic amphipoda basically reflects the movement, decay and intensification of the different water systems in the survey area.
文摘为提高东、黄海鲐鱼渔场预报准确率、降低渔业生产成本,研究提出了一种基于提升回归树的渔场预报模型。研究采用2003—2010年我国大型灯光围网渔捞日志数据,以有网次记录的小渔区为渔场,以渔捞日志未记录的区域作为背景场随机选择假定非渔场数据,以海表水温等环境因子作为预测变量构建东、黄海鲐鱼渔场预报模型并以2011年的实际作业记录对预报模型进行精度验证。验证计算得到预报模型的AUC(area under receiver operating curve)值为0.897,表明模型的预报精度较高。模型的空间预测结果表明,预报渔场与实际作业位置基本吻合,其位置移动也与实际情况相符。这表明基于提升回归树的渔场预报模型可以用来进行东、黄海鲐鱼渔场的预报。
文摘根据1999-2008年东海区渔业资源底拖网大面定点调查获取的小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)渔业生物学资料,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)与BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion),对小黄鱼的Ricker、Beverton-Holt和Cushing繁殖模型进行了拟合优度检验。针对选择的繁殖模型,经单因子相关分析和逐步回归分析,筛选对繁殖模型有重要影响的环境因子,经模型的拟合和检验,确定东海区小黄鱼的适用繁殖模型。结果表明:3种繁殖模型中,Ricker繁殖模型更适合模拟小黄鱼亲体与补充量关系,但吕泗渔场海域3-4月平均海水表温、7月海水表温和5月长江径流量、7-8月长江平均径流量以及当年夏季风速对模型中的补充量有着重要的影响;优化后的Ricker繁殖模型不仅可以提高东海区小黄鱼亲鱼量与补充量的拟合精度,而且可参考该模型修正当年度小黄鱼的资源管理目标,提高资源管理的科学性。
