WnC0'± (n= 1-6) clusters are investigated by using the density functional theory (DFT) at the B3LYP/LANL2DZ level. We find that the neutral, anionic and cationic ground state structures are similar within th...WnC0'± (n= 1-6) clusters are investigated by using the density functional theory (DFT) at the B3LYP/LANL2DZ level. We find that the neutral, anionic and cationic ground state structures are similar within the same size, and constituted by substituting a C atom for one W atom in the structures of Wn+1 clusters. The natural bond orbital (NBO) charge analyses indicate that the direction of electron transfer is from the W atom to the 2p orbital of the C atom. In addition, the calculated infrared spectra of the WnC0'± (n= 2-6) clusters manifest that the vibrational frequencies of neutral, anionic and cationic clusters are similar in a range of 80 cm-1-864 cm-1. The high frequency, strong peak modes are found to be an almost stretched deformation of the carbide atom. Finally, the polarizabilities of WnC0'± (n= 1-6) clusters are also discussed.展开更多
A long-lived sunspot group (AR9604) on the south hemisphere that lasted five solar rotations and produced some strong bursts is analyzed. The focus is on its evolving features. Its whole life was successfully maintain...A long-lived sunspot group (AR9604) on the south hemisphere that lasted five solar rotations and produced some strong bursts is analyzed. The focus is on its evolving features. Its whole life was successfully maintained by four Emerging Flux Regions (EFRs). Apart from the one that lasted only a short time and did not produce any bursts, the other three EFRs have the following common features: (1) A positive writhe of magnetic flux tubes and a twist of the field lines of the same sign, indicating kink instability. (2) A clockwise rotation and a high tilt because the writhe was right-handed. (3) A compact 'island δ' structure of the sunspot group indicating concentrated kink instability. Since magnetic reconnection easily occurs at the kinked point of a very kink-unstable flux tube, these features should be the inducement of the strong bursts.展开更多
Ce1-xBixO2-δ (x = 0.00, 0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.10, 0.15, 0.30) solid solutions were synthesized via a hydrothermal method. The structure, spectra and electrochemical transport properties of the samples were characteri...Ce1-xBixO2-δ (x = 0.00, 0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.10, 0.15, 0.30) solid solutions were synthesized via a hydrothermal method. The structure, spectra and electrochemical transport properties of the samples were characterized systematically. The powder X-ray diffraction analysis showed that all of the doped samples exhibited single phase fluorite structure. The particle sizes decreased from 18 to 9 nm and the lattice parameters increased gradually with the dopant content increasing from x = 0.03 to x = 0.30. The Bi^3+ doping also induced the F2g Raman peak to shift from 463 to 455 cm^-1, and caused a red shift of the band gap energies calculated from UV-Vis spectra. The impedance plots at different temperature demonstrated that the boundary resistance was much larger than the grain resistance, and two activation energy values were obtained in different temperature range.展开更多
The five-minute oscillations inside sunspots appear to be the absorption of the solar p-mode. It is a potential tool to probe a sunspot's sub-structure. We studied the collective properties of five-minute oscillation...The five-minute oscillations inside sunspots appear to be the absorption of the solar p-mode. It is a potential tool to probe a sunspot's sub-structure. We studied the collective properties of five-minute oscillations in the power and phase distribution at the sunspot's umbra-penumbra boundary. The azimuthal distributions of the power and phase of five-minute oscillations enclosing a sunspot's umbra were obtained with images taken with the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). The azimuthal modes were quantified with periodogram analysis and justified with significance tests. The azimuthal nodal structures in an approximately ax- ially symmetric sunspot AR 11131 (2010 Dec 08) were investigated. Mode numbers ra = 2, 3, 4, 7, 10 were obtained in both 1700 A and 1600A bandpasses. The 1600A channel also revealed an extra mode at m = 9. In the upper atmosphere (304 A), fewer modes were detected at m = 3, 4, 7. The azimuthal modes in the sunspot's low atmo- sphere could be interpreted as high-order azimuthal MHD body modes. They were detected in the power and phase of the five-minute oscillations in sunspot AR 11131 with SDO/AIA data. Fewer modes were detected in the sunspot's upper atmosphere.展开更多
The wavelet transform method for high-quality time-frequency analysis is applied to sets of observations of relative sunspot numbers and stellar chromosphere fluxes of 10 Sun-like stars. Wavelet analysis of solar data...The wavelet transform method for high-quality time-frequency analysis is applied to sets of observations of relative sunspot numbers and stellar chromosphere fluxes of 10 Sun-like stars. Wavelet analysis of solar data shows that in a certain interval of time there are several cycles of activity with pe- riods of duration which vary considerably from each other: from quasi-biennial cycles to lO0-yr cycles. Cyclic activity was detected in almost all Sun-like stars that we examined, even those that previously were not considered as stars with cyclic activity according to analysis using a Scargle periodogram. The durations of solar and stellar cycles significantly change during the observation period.展开更多
With the aid of the spectnnn techique, a new concept named-α-stabilizability (0≤α≤1) is intnxhged and its suffident and necessary canditions are also prvposed. Especially, it is identical with the asymptotically...With the aid of the spectnnn techique, a new concept named-α-stabilizability (0≤α≤1) is intnxhged and its suffident and necessary canditions are also prvposed. Especially, it is identical with the asymptotically mean square stabilizability when α = 1. As an application, the suboptimal state feedback H2/H∞ controller that satisfies the additional Spectrum canstmint via solving a convex optimization problem is delt with.展开更多
Information is given on thermal radiation from the Sun, considered in practical engineering calculations of heat exchange. It was found that although the surface temperature of the Sun is assumed to be about 5800 K, t...Information is given on thermal radiation from the Sun, considered in practical engineering calculations of heat exchange. It was found that although the surface temperature of the Sun is assumed to be about 5800 K, the solar spectrum data measured by Kondratyev lead to a value of at least 7134 K. Such a higher value can be obtained by interpreting the Planck formula for the black radiation spectrum for the Kondratyev data. In addition, using the Stefan-Boltzmann law, the energetic emissivity of the Sun’s surface was determined to be 0.431. Furthermore, based on Petela’s formulae for exergy of thermal radiation, the exergetic emissivity of the Sun’s surface was also calculated at the level of 0.426.展开更多
A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and ...A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.展开更多
High-resolution Stokes spectral data of Hα, Ca Ⅱ 8542A, and Fe 16302.5A lines for a two-ribbon microflare (TRMF) were simultaneously obtained by the THEMIS telescope on 2002 September 5. We derive the intensity, v...High-resolution Stokes spectral data of Hα, Ca Ⅱ 8542A, and Fe 16302.5A lines for a two-ribbon microflare (TRMF) were simultaneously obtained by the THEMIS telescope on 2002 September 5. We derive the intensity, velocity, and longitudinal magnetic field maps. The hard X-ray emission observed by RHESSI provides evidence of nonthermal particle acceleration in the TRMF. Using Ha and Ca Ⅱ 8542A line profiles and a non-LTE calculation, we obtain semi-empirical atmospheric models for the two brightest kernels of the TRME Our result indicates that the temperature enhancement in the chromosphere is more than 2500 K. The kinetic and radiative energies at the kernels are also estimated, resulting in an estimate of the total energy of the TRMF of about 2.4×10^29 erg. Observations indicate that the TRMF results from the low coronal magnetic reconnection following the eruption of a small fila- ment. However, the local temperature "bump" in the chromosphere presents a puzzle for such a standard flare model. A possible solution to this is discussed.展开更多
Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an...Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.展开更多
We give an extensive multi-wavelength analysis of an eruptive M1.0/1N class solar flare, which occurred in the active region NOAA 10044 on 2002 July 26. Our emphasis is on the relationship between magnetic shear and f...We give an extensive multi-wavelength analysis of an eruptive M1.0/1N class solar flare, which occurred in the active region NOAA 10044 on 2002 July 26. Our emphasis is on the relationship between magnetic shear and flare shear. Flare shear is defined as the angle formed between the line connecting the centroids of the two ribbons of the flare and the line perpendicular to the magnetic neutral line. The magnetic shear is computed from vector magnetograms observed at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), while the flare shear is computed from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) 1700A images. By a detailed comparison, we find that; 1) The magnetic shear and the flare shear of this event are basically consistent, as judged from the directions of the transverse magnetic field and the line connecting the two ribbons' centroids. 2) During the period of the enhancement of magnetic shear, flare shear had a fast increase followed by a fluctuated decrease. 3) When the magnetic shear stopped its enhancement, the fluctuated decreasing behavior of the flare shear became very smooth. 4) Hard X-ray (HXR) spikes are well correlated with the unshearing peaks on the time profile of the rate of change of the flare shear. We give a discussion of the above phenomena.展开更多
We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the ampli...We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.展开更多
We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attract...We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent (MLE) for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 (month^- 1). Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.展开更多
A multi-model integration method is proposed to develop a multi-source and heterogeneous model for short-term solar flare prediction. Different prediction models are constructed on the basis of extracted predictors fr...A multi-model integration method is proposed to develop a multi-source and heterogeneous model for short-term solar flare prediction. Different prediction models are constructed on the basis of extracted predictors from a pool of observation databases. The outputs of the base models are normal- ized first because these established models extract predictors from many data resources using different prediction methods. Then weighted integration of the base models is used to develop a multi-model integrated model (MIM). The weight set that single models assign is optimized by a genetic algorithm. Seven base models and data from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager lon- gitudinal magnetograms are used to construct the MIM, and then its performance is evaluated by cross validation. Experimental results showed that the MIM outperforms any individual model in nearly every data group, and the richer the diversity of the base models, the better the performance of the MIM. Thus, integrating more diversified models, such as an expert system, a statistical model and a physical model, will greatly improve the performance of the MIM.展开更多
We report results from a multi-wavelength study of the 3B/X1.2 tworibbon disk flare (S15E44), which was well observed by both ground-based and space-borne instruments. Two pairs of conjugate kernels - K1 and K4, and...We report results from a multi-wavelength study of the 3B/X1.2 tworibbon disk flare (S15E44), which was well observed by both ground-based and space-borne instruments. Two pairs of conjugate kernels - K1 and K4, and K2 and K3 - in the Ha images are identified. These kernels are linked by two different systems of EUV loops. K1 and K4 correspond to the two 17 GHz and 34 GHz microwave sources observed by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH), while K2 and K3 have no corresponding microwave sources. Optical spectroscopic observations suggest that all the four kernels are possible precipitating sites of non-thermal electrons. Thus the energy of electron deposited in K2 and K3 should be less than 100keV. Two-dimensional distributions of the full widths at half maximum (FWHM) of the Ha profiles and the line-of-sight (LOS) velocities derived from the Ca n 8542 A profiles indicate that the largest FWHM and LOS velocity tends to be located near the outer edges of Hα kernels, which is consistent with the scenario of current two-ribbon flare models and previous results. When non-thermal electron bombardment is present, the observed Hα and Ca II 8542 A profiles are similar to previous observational and theoretical results, while the He I 10830 A profiles are different from the theoretical ones. This puts some constraints on future theoretical calculation of the He I 10830 A line.展开更多
To acquire Stokes profiles from observations of a simple sunspot with the Video Vector Magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), we scanned the FeI λ5324.19 A line over the wavelength interval from 150m...To acquire Stokes profiles from observations of a simple sunspot with the Video Vector Magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), we scanned the FeI λ5324.19 A line over the wavelength interval from 150mA redward of the line center to 150mA blueward, in steps of 10mA. With the technique of analytic inversion of Stokes profiles via nonlinear least-squares, we present the calibration coefficients for the HSOS vector magnetic magnetogram. We obtained the theoretical calibration error with linear expressions derived from the Unno-Becker equation under weak-field approximation.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51072072)
文摘WnC0'± (n= 1-6) clusters are investigated by using the density functional theory (DFT) at the B3LYP/LANL2DZ level. We find that the neutral, anionic and cationic ground state structures are similar within the same size, and constituted by substituting a C atom for one W atom in the structures of Wn+1 clusters. The natural bond orbital (NBO) charge analyses indicate that the direction of electron transfer is from the W atom to the 2p orbital of the C atom. In addition, the calculated infrared spectra of the WnC0'± (n= 2-6) clusters manifest that the vibrational frequencies of neutral, anionic and cationic clusters are similar in a range of 80 cm-1-864 cm-1. The high frequency, strong peak modes are found to be an almost stretched deformation of the carbide atom. Finally, the polarizabilities of WnC0'± (n= 1-6) clusters are also discussed.
文摘A long-lived sunspot group (AR9604) on the south hemisphere that lasted five solar rotations and produced some strong bursts is analyzed. The focus is on its evolving features. Its whole life was successfully maintained by four Emerging Flux Regions (EFRs). Apart from the one that lasted only a short time and did not produce any bursts, the other three EFRs have the following common features: (1) A positive writhe of magnetic flux tubes and a twist of the field lines of the same sign, indicating kink instability. (2) A clockwise rotation and a high tilt because the writhe was right-handed. (3) A compact 'island δ' structure of the sunspot group indicating concentrated kink instability. Since magnetic reconnection easily occurs at the kinked point of a very kink-unstable flux tube, these features should be the inducement of the strong bursts.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China(No.51371094,51161015)the Inner Mongolia Natural Science Foundation(No.2013MS0806)
文摘Ce1-xBixO2-δ (x = 0.00, 0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.10, 0.15, 0.30) solid solutions were synthesized via a hydrothermal method. The structure, spectra and electrochemical transport properties of the samples were characterized systematically. The powder X-ray diffraction analysis showed that all of the doped samples exhibited single phase fluorite structure. The particle sizes decreased from 18 to 9 nm and the lattice parameters increased gradually with the dopant content increasing from x = 0.03 to x = 0.30. The Bi^3+ doping also induced the F2g Raman peak to shift from 463 to 455 cm^-1, and caused a red shift of the band gap energies calculated from UV-Vis spectra. The impedance plots at different temperature demonstrated that the boundary resistance was much larger than the grain resistance, and two activation energy values were obtained in different temperature range.
文摘The five-minute oscillations inside sunspots appear to be the absorption of the solar p-mode. It is a potential tool to probe a sunspot's sub-structure. We studied the collective properties of five-minute oscillations in the power and phase distribution at the sunspot's umbra-penumbra boundary. The azimuthal distributions of the power and phase of five-minute oscillations enclosing a sunspot's umbra were obtained with images taken with the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). The azimuthal modes were quantified with periodogram analysis and justified with significance tests. The azimuthal nodal structures in an approximately ax- ially symmetric sunspot AR 11131 (2010 Dec 08) were investigated. Mode numbers ra = 2, 3, 4, 7, 10 were obtained in both 1700 A and 1600A bandpasses. The 1600A channel also revealed an extra mode at m = 9. In the upper atmosphere (304 A), fewer modes were detected at m = 3, 4, 7. The azimuthal modes in the sunspot's low atmo- sphere could be interpreted as high-order azimuthal MHD body modes. They were detected in the power and phase of the five-minute oscillations in sunspot AR 11131 with SDO/AIA data. Fewer modes were detected in the sunspot's upper atmosphere.
文摘The wavelet transform method for high-quality time-frequency analysis is applied to sets of observations of relative sunspot numbers and stellar chromosphere fluxes of 10 Sun-like stars. Wavelet analysis of solar data shows that in a certain interval of time there are several cycles of activity with pe- riods of duration which vary considerably from each other: from quasi-biennial cycles to lO0-yr cycles. Cyclic activity was detected in almost all Sun-like stars that we examined, even those that previously were not considered as stars with cyclic activity according to analysis using a Scargle periodogram. The durations of solar and stellar cycles significantly change during the observation period.
基金supported by the research project of “SDUST Spring Bud”(Grant No.2008AZZ090)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.60874032)
文摘With the aid of the spectnnn techique, a new concept named-α-stabilizability (0≤α≤1) is intnxhged and its suffident and necessary canditions are also prvposed. Especially, it is identical with the asymptotically mean square stabilizability when α = 1. As an application, the suboptimal state feedback H2/H∞ controller that satisfies the additional Spectrum canstmint via solving a convex optimization problem is delt with.
文摘Information is given on thermal radiation from the Sun, considered in practical engineering calculations of heat exchange. It was found that although the surface temperature of the Sun is assumed to be about 5800 K, the solar spectrum data measured by Kondratyev lead to a value of at least 7134 K. Such a higher value can be obtained by interpreting the Planck formula for the black radiation spectrum for the Kondratyev data. In addition, using the Stefan-Boltzmann law, the energetic emissivity of the Sun’s surface was determined to be 0.431. Furthermore, based on Petela’s formulae for exergy of thermal radiation, the exergetic emissivity of the Sun’s surface was also calculated at the level of 0.426.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC) (Grant Nos. 10221001, 10878002, 10403003, 10620150099,10610099, 10933003 and 10673004)a grant form the 973 project 2006CB806302
文摘High-resolution Stokes spectral data of Hα, Ca Ⅱ 8542A, and Fe 16302.5A lines for a two-ribbon microflare (TRMF) were simultaneously obtained by the THEMIS telescope on 2002 September 5. We derive the intensity, velocity, and longitudinal magnetic field maps. The hard X-ray emission observed by RHESSI provides evidence of nonthermal particle acceleration in the TRMF. Using Ha and Ca Ⅱ 8542A line profiles and a non-LTE calculation, we obtain semi-empirical atmospheric models for the two brightest kernels of the TRME Our result indicates that the temperature enhancement in the chromosphere is more than 2500 K. The kinetic and radiative energies at the kernels are also estimated, resulting in an estimate of the total energy of the TRMF of about 2.4×10^29 erg. Observations indicate that the TRMF results from the low coronal magnetic reconnection following the eruption of a small fila- ment. However, the local temperature "bump" in the chromosphere presents a puzzle for such a standard flare model. A possible solution to this is discussed.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) undergrant numbers 10673031 and 40636031the National Basic Research Program of China 973 undergrant number G2006CB806301.
文摘Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘We give an extensive multi-wavelength analysis of an eruptive M1.0/1N class solar flare, which occurred in the active region NOAA 10044 on 2002 July 26. Our emphasis is on the relationship between magnetic shear and flare shear. Flare shear is defined as the angle formed between the line connecting the centroids of the two ribbons of the flare and the line perpendicular to the magnetic neutral line. The magnetic shear is computed from vector magnetograms observed at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), while the flare shear is computed from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) 1700A images. By a detailed comparison, we find that; 1) The magnetic shear and the flare shear of this event are basically consistent, as judged from the directions of the transverse magnetic field and the line connecting the two ribbons' centroids. 2) During the period of the enhancement of magnetic shear, flare shear had a fast increase followed by a fluctuated decrease. 3) When the magnetic shear stopped its enhancement, the fluctuated decreasing behavior of the flare shear became very smooth. 4) Hard X-ray (HXR) spikes are well correlated with the unshearing peaks on the time profile of the rate of change of the flare shear. We give a discussion of the above phenomena.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent (MLE) for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 (month^- 1). Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11078010)SOHO is a project of international cooperation between the European Space Agency(ESA) and NASA
文摘A multi-model integration method is proposed to develop a multi-source and heterogeneous model for short-term solar flare prediction. Different prediction models are constructed on the basis of extracted predictors from a pool of observation databases. The outputs of the base models are normal- ized first because these established models extract predictors from many data resources using different prediction methods. Then weighted integration of the base models is used to develop a multi-model integrated model (MIM). The weight set that single models assign is optimized by a genetic algorithm. Seven base models and data from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager lon- gitudinal magnetograms are used to construct the MIM, and then its performance is evaluated by cross validation. Experimental results showed that the MIM outperforms any individual model in nearly every data group, and the richer the diversity of the base models, the better the performance of the MIM. Thus, integrating more diversified models, such as an expert system, a statistical model and a physical model, will greatly improve the performance of the MIM.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘We report results from a multi-wavelength study of the 3B/X1.2 tworibbon disk flare (S15E44), which was well observed by both ground-based and space-borne instruments. Two pairs of conjugate kernels - K1 and K4, and K2 and K3 - in the Ha images are identified. These kernels are linked by two different systems of EUV loops. K1 and K4 correspond to the two 17 GHz and 34 GHz microwave sources observed by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH), while K2 and K3 have no corresponding microwave sources. Optical spectroscopic observations suggest that all the four kernels are possible precipitating sites of non-thermal electrons. Thus the energy of electron deposited in K2 and K3 should be less than 100keV. Two-dimensional distributions of the full widths at half maximum (FWHM) of the Ha profiles and the line-of-sight (LOS) velocities derived from the Ca n 8542 A profiles indicate that the largest FWHM and LOS velocity tends to be located near the outer edges of Hα kernels, which is consistent with the scenario of current two-ribbon flare models and previous results. When non-thermal electron bombardment is present, the observed Hα and Ca II 8542 A profiles are similar to previous observational and theoretical results, while the He I 10830 A profiles are different from the theoretical ones. This puts some constraints on future theoretical calculation of the He I 10830 A line.
基金Support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘To acquire Stokes profiles from observations of a simple sunspot with the Video Vector Magnetograph at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), we scanned the FeI λ5324.19 A line over the wavelength interval from 150mA redward of the line center to 150mA blueward, in steps of 10mA. With the technique of analytic inversion of Stokes profiles via nonlinear least-squares, we present the calibration coefficients for the HSOS vector magnetic magnetogram. We obtained the theoretical calibration error with linear expressions derived from the Unno-Becker equation under weak-field approximation.