Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment fail...Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure.With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters,the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events,such as large-scale winter sports sites,cannot be ignored.In this study,a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model(NAEA model)is proposed.Based on the results of the NAEA model,a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established.Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis,it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites.Simultaneously,improving the early warning capability,reliability of electrical equipment,and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents.In addition,an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.展开更多
Based on the real-time wind direction and speed data from an automatic meteorological monitoring network in Shenzhen, the wind characteristics of Jue Diao Sha maritime area are analyzed. As indicated in the results, t...Based on the real-time wind direction and speed data from an automatic meteorological monitoring network in Shenzhen, the wind characteristics of Jue Diao Sha maritime area are analyzed. As indicated in the results, the wind speed of this area is higher than that over the land, the average wind speed is above 3 m/s and the probability for the maximum wind speed to drop below 20 m/s is above 90%. Moreover, the probability for the hourly swing angle of wind direction to become less than 50o is above 80%, suggesting that the wind conditions in the Jue Diao Sha area could meet the requirements of the sporting events. According to the numerical simulation, this area is the best selected site among three candidates. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily land and sea breezes are such that it is suggested the game will be best carried out from 1000 to 1700 Beijing Standard Time.展开更多
基金supported by the Beijing Nova Program(Grant No.Z201100006820072).
文摘Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern.However,previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure.With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters,the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events,such as large-scale winter sports sites,cannot be ignored.In this study,a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model(NAEA model)is proposed.Based on the results of the NAEA model,a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established.Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis,it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites.Simultaneously,improving the early warning capability,reliability of electrical equipment,and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents.In addition,an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.
基金Project on Meteorological Conditions for Selection of Site of Maritime Sporting Base for 26th Summer Universiade 2011
文摘Based on the real-time wind direction and speed data from an automatic meteorological monitoring network in Shenzhen, the wind characteristics of Jue Diao Sha maritime area are analyzed. As indicated in the results, the wind speed of this area is higher than that over the land, the average wind speed is above 3 m/s and the probability for the maximum wind speed to drop below 20 m/s is above 90%. Moreover, the probability for the hourly swing angle of wind direction to become less than 50o is above 80%, suggesting that the wind conditions in the Jue Diao Sha area could meet the requirements of the sporting events. According to the numerical simulation, this area is the best selected site among three candidates. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily land and sea breezes are such that it is suggested the game will be best carried out from 1000 to 1700 Beijing Standard Time.
