A comparison of model choice strategies for logistic regression

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.

Performance Enhancement of XML Parsing Using Regression and Parallelism

The Extensible Markup Language(XML)files,widely used for storing and exchanging information on the web require efficient parsing mechanisms to improve the performance of the applications.With the existing Document Object Model(DOM)based parsing,the performance degrades due to sequential processing and large memory requirements,thereby requiring an efficient XML parser to mitigate these issues.In this paper,we propose a Parallel XML Tree Generator(PXTG)algorithm for accelerating the parsing of XML files and a Regression-based XML Parsing Framework(RXPF)that analyzes and predicts performance through profiling,regression,and code generation for efficient parsing.The PXTG algorithm is based on dividing the XML file into n parts and producing n trees in parallel.The profiling phase of the RXPF framework produces a dataset by measuring the performance of various parsing models including StAX,SAX,DOM,JDOM,and PXTG on different cores by using multiple file sizes.The regression phase produces the prediction model,based on which the final code for efficient parsing of XML files is produced through the code generation phase.The RXPF framework has shown a significant improvement in performance varying from 9.54%to 32.34%over other existing models used for parsing XML files.

Two-Staged Method for Ice Channel Identification Based on Image Segmentation and Corner Point Regression

Identification of the ice channel is the basic technology for developing intelligent ships in ice-covered waters,which is important to ensure the safety and economy of navigation.In the Arctic,merchant ships with low ice class often navigate in channels opened up by icebreakers.Navigation in the ice channel often depends on good maneuverability skills and abundant experience from the captain to a large extent.The ship may get stuck if steered into ice fields off the channel.Under this circumstance,it is very important to study how to identify the boundary lines of ice channels with a reliable method.In this paper,a two-staged ice channel identification method is developed based on image segmentation and corner point regression.The first stage employs the image segmentation method to extract channel regions.In the second stage,an intelligent corner regression network is proposed to extract the channel boundary lines from the channel region.A non-intelligent angle-based filtering and clustering method is proposed and compared with corner point regression network.The training and evaluation of the segmentation method and corner regression network are carried out on the synthetic and real ice channel dataset.The evaluation results show that the accuracy of the method using the corner point regression network in the second stage is achieved as high as 73.33%on the synthetic ice channel dataset and 70.66%on the real ice channel dataset,and the processing speed can reach up to 14.58frames per second.

Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression in Assessing Dengue Fever Spread Factors in Yunnan Border Regions

Objective This study employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model to assess the impact of meteorological elements and imported cases on dengue fever outbreaks,emphasizing the spatial-temporal variability of these factors in border regions.Methods We conducted a descriptive analysis of dengue fever’s temporal-spatial distribution in Yunnan border areas.Utilizing annual data from 2013 to 2019,with each county in the Yunnan border serving as a spatial unit,we constructed a GTWR model to investigate the determinants of dengue fever and their spatio-temporal heterogeneity in this region.Results The GTWR model,proving more effective than Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)analysis,identified significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in factors influencing dengue fever’s spread along the Yunnan border.Notably,the GTWR model revealed a substantial variation in the relationship between indigenous dengue fever incidence,meteorological variables,and imported cases across different counties.Conclusion In the Yunnan border areas,local dengue incidence is affected by temperature,humidity,precipitation,wind speed,and imported cases,with these factors’influence exhibiting notable spatial and temporal variation.

Nuclear charge radius predictions by kernel ridge regression with odd-even effects

The extended kernel ridge regression(EKRR)method with odd-even effects was adopted to improve the description of the nuclear charge radius using five commonly used nuclear models.These are:(i)the isospin-dependent A^(1∕3) formula,(ii)relativistic continuum Hartree-Bogoliubov(RCHB)theory,(iii)Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov(HFB)model HFB25,(iv)the Weizsacker-Skyrme(WS)model WS*,and(v)HFB25*model.In the last two models,the charge radii were calculated using a five-parameter formula with the nuclear shell corrections and deformations obtained from the WS and HFB25 models,respectively.For each model,the resultant root-mean-square deviation for the 1014 nuclei with proton number Z≥8 can be significantly reduced to 0.009-0.013 fm after considering the modification with the EKRR method.The best among them was the RCHB model,with a root-mean-square deviation of 0.0092 fm.The extrapolation abilities of the KRR and EKRR methods for the neutron-rich region were examined,and it was found that after considering the odd-even effects,the extrapolation power was improved compared with that of the original KRR method.The strong odd-even staggering of nuclear charge radii of Ca and Cu isotopes and the abrupt kinks across the neutron N=126 and 82 shell closures were also calculated and could be reproduced quite well by calculations using the EKRR method.

Composition Analysis and Identification of Ancient Glass Products Based on L1 Regularization Logistic Regression

In view of the composition analysis and identification of ancient glass products, L1 regularization, K-Means cluster analysis, elbow rule and other methods were comprehensively used to build logical regression, cluster analysis, hyper-parameter test and other models, and SPSS, Python and other tools were used to obtain the classification rules of glass products under different fluxes, sub classification under different chemical compositions, hyper-parameter K value test and rationality analysis. Research can provide theoretical support for the protection and restoration of ancient glass relics.

Operational optimization of copper flotation process based on the weighted Gaussian process regression and index-oriented adaptive differential evolution algorithm

Concentrate copper grade(CCG)is one of the important production indicators of copper flotation processes,and keeping the CCG at the set value is of great significance to the economic benefit of copper flotation industrial processes.This paper addresses the fluctuation problem of CCG through an operational optimization method.Firstly,a density-based affinity propagationalgorithm is proposed so that more ideal working condition categories can be obtained for the complex raw ore properties.Next,a Bayesian network(BN)is applied to explore the relationship between the operational variables and the CCG.Based on the analysis results of BN,a weighted Gaussian process regression model is constructed to predict the CCG that a higher prediction accuracy can be obtained.To ensure the predicted CCG is close to the set value with a smaller magnitude of the operation adjustments and a smaller uncertainty of the prediction results,an index-oriented adaptive differential evolution(IOADE)algorithm is proposed,and the convergence performance of IOADE is superior to the traditional differential evolution and adaptive differential evolution methods.Finally,the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods are verified by the experiments on a copper flotation industrial process.

Prediction of Ground Vibration Induced by Rock Blasting Based on Optimized Support Vector Regression Models

Accurately estimating blasting vibration during rock blasting is the foundation of blasting vibration management.In this study,Tuna Swarm Optimization(TSO),Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA),and Cuckoo Search(CS)were used to optimize two hyperparameters in support vector regression(SVR).Based on these methods,three hybrid models to predict peak particle velocity(PPV)for bench blasting were developed.Eighty-eight samples were collected to establish the PPV database,eight initial blasting parameters were chosen as input parameters for the predictionmodel,and the PPV was the output parameter.As predictive performance evaluation indicators,the coefficient of determination(R2),rootmean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and a10-index were selected.The normalizedmutual information value is then used to evaluate the impact of various input parameters on the PPV prediction outcomes.According to the research findings,TSO,WOA,and CS can all enhance the predictive performance of the SVR model.The TSO-SVR model provides the most accurate predictions.The performances of the optimized hybrid SVR models are superior to the unoptimized traditional prediction model.The maximum charge per delay impacts the PPV prediction value the most.

Integration of Multiple Spectral Data via a Logistic Regression Algorithm for Detection of Crop Residue Burned Areas:A Case Study of Songnen Plain,Northeast China

The burning of crop residues in fields is a significant global biomass burning activity which is a key element of the terrestrial carbon cycle,and an important source of atmospheric trace gasses and aerosols.Accurate estimation of cropland burned area is both crucial and challenging,especially for the small and fragmented burned scars in China.Here we developed an automated burned area mapping algorithm that was implemented using Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument(MSI)data and its effectiveness was tested taking Songnen Plain,Northeast China as a case using satellite image of 2020.We employed a logistic regression method for integrating multiple spectral data into a synthetic indicator,and compared the results with manually interpreted burned area reference maps and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)MCD64A1 burned area product.The overall accuracy of the single variable logistic regression was 77.38%to 86.90%and 73.47%to 97.14%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively.In comparison,the accuracy of the burned area map was improved to 87.14%and 98.33%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively by multiple variable logistic regression of Sentind-2 images.The balance of omission error and commission error was also improved.The integration of multiple spectral data combined with a logistic regression method proves to be effective for burned area detection,offering a highly automated process with an automatic threshold determination mechanism.This method exhibits excellent extensibility and flexibility taking the image tile as the operating unit.It is suitable for burned area detection at a regional scale and can also be implemented with other satellite data.

Smart Healthcare Activity Recognition Using Statistical Regression and Intelligent Learning

In this present time,Human Activity Recognition(HAR)has been of considerable aid in the case of health monitoring and recovery.The exploitation of machine learning with an intelligent agent in the area of health informatics gathered using HAR augments the decision-making quality and significance.Although many research works conducted on Smart Healthcare Monitoring,there remain a certain number of pitfalls such as time,overhead,and falsification involved during analysis.Therefore,this paper proposes a Statistical Partial Regression and Support Vector Intelligent Agent Learning(SPR-SVIAL)for Smart Healthcare Monitoring.At first,the Statistical Partial Regression Feature Extraction model is used for data preprocessing along with the dimensionality-reduced features extraction process.Here,the input dataset the continuous beat-to-beat heart data,triaxial accelerometer data,and psychological characteristics were acquired from IoT wearable devices.To attain highly accurate Smart Healthcare Monitoring with less time,Partial Least Square helps extract the dimensionality-reduced features.After that,with these resulting features,SVIAL is proposed for Smart Healthcare Monitoring with the help of Machine Learning and Intelligent Agents to minimize both analysis falsification and overhead.Experimental evaluation is carried out for factors such as time,overhead,and false positive rate accuracy concerning several instances.The quantitatively analyzed results indicate the better performance of our proposed SPR-SVIAL method when compared with two state-of-the-art methods.

Modeling of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) and Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR) in the Edwards-Trinity Plateau and Ogallala Aquifers in the Midland-Odessa Region Using Random Forest Regression and eXtreme Gradient Boosting

Efficient water quality monitoring and ensuring the safety of drinking water by government agencies in areas where the resource is constantly depleted due to anthropogenic or natural factors cannot be overemphasized. The above statement holds for West Texas, Midland, and Odessa Precisely. Two machine learning regression algorithms (Random Forest and XGBoost) were employed to develop models for the prediction of total dissolved solids (TDS) and sodium absorption ratio (SAR) for efficient water quality monitoring of two vital aquifers: Edward-Trinity (plateau), and Ogallala aquifers. These two aquifers have contributed immensely to providing water for different uses ranging from domestic, agricultural, industrial, etc. The data was obtained from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). The XGBoost and Random Forest models used in this study gave an accurate prediction of observed data (TDS and SAR) for both the Edward-Trinity (plateau) and Ogallala aquifers with the R2 values consistently greater than 0.83. The Random Forest model gave a better prediction of TDS and SAR concentration with an average R, MAE, RMSE and MSE of 0.977, 0.015, 0.029 and 0.00, respectively. For the XGBoost, an average R, MAE, RMSE, and MSE of 0.953, 0.016, 0.037 and 0.00, respectively, were achieved. The overall performance of the models produced was impressive. From this study, we can clearly understand that Random Forest and XGBoost are appropriate for water quality prediction and monitoring in an area of high hydrocarbon activities like Midland and Odessa and West Texas at large.

Country-based modelling of COVID-19 case fatality rate:A multiple regression analysis

BACKGROUND The spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 outbreak worldwide has caused concern regarding the mortality rate caused by the infection.The determinants of mortality on a global scale cannot be fully understood due to lack of information.AIM To identify key factors that may explain the variability in case lethality across countries.METHODS We identified 21 Potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)case fatality rate for all the countries with available data.We examined univariate relationships of each variable with case fatality rate(CFR),and all independent variables to identify candidate variables for our final multiple model.Multiple regression analysis technique was used to assess the strength of relationship.RESULTS The mean of COVID-19 mortality was 1.52±1.72%.There was a statistically significant inverse correlation between health expenditure,and number of computed tomography scanners per 1 million with CFR,and significant direct correlation was found between literacy,and air pollution with CFR.This final model can predict approximately 97%of the changes in CFR.CONCLUSION The current study recommends some new predictors explaining affect mortality rate.Thus,it could help decision-makers develop health policies to fight COVID-19.

Optimization of Generator Based on Gaussian Process Regression Model with Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search

The noise that comes from finite element simulation often causes the model to fall into the local optimal solution and over fitting during optimization of generator.Thus,this paper proposes a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)model based on Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search(CLLBS)to optimize the design of the generator,which can filter the noise in the data and search for global optimization by combining the Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search method.Taking the efficiency optimization of 15 kW Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor as an example.Firstly,this method uses the elementary effect analysis to choose the sensitive variables,combining the evolutionary algorithm to design the super Latin cube sampling plan;Then the generator-converter system is simulated by establishing a co-simulation platform to obtain data.A Gaussian process regression model combing the method of the conditional likelihood lower bound search is established,which combined the chi-square test to optimize the accuracy of the model globally.Secondly,after the model reaches the accuracy,the Pareto frontier is obtained through the NSGA-II algorithm by considering the maximum output torque as a constraint.Last,the constrained optimization is transformed into an unconstrained optimizing problem by introducing maximum constrained improvement expectation(CEI)optimization method based on the re-interpolation model,which cross-validated the optimization results of the Gaussian process regression model.The above method increase the efficiency of generator by 0.76%and 0.5%respectively;And this method can be used for rapid modeling and multi-objective optimization of generator systems.

Utilization of Logistical Regression to the Modified Sine-Gordon Model in the MST Experiment

In this paper, a logistical regression statistical analysis (LR) is presented for a set of variables used in experimental measurements in reversed field pinch (RFP) machines, commonly known as “slinky mode” (SM), observed to travel around the torus in Madison Symmetric Torus (MST). The LR analysis is used to utilize the modified Sine-Gordon dynamic equation model to predict with high confidence whether the slinky mode will lock or not lock when compared to the experimentally measured motion of the slinky mode. It is observed that under certain conditions, the slinky mode “locks” at or near the intersection of poloidal and/or toroidal gaps in MST. However, locked mode cease to travel around the torus;while unlocked mode keeps traveling without a change in the energy, making it hard to determine an exact set of conditions to predict locking/unlocking behaviour. The significant key model parameters determined by LR analysis are shown to improve the Sine-Gordon model’s ability to determine the locking/unlocking of magnetohydrodyamic (MHD) modes. The LR analysis of measured variables provides high confidence in anticipating locking versus unlocking of slinky mode proven by relational comparisons between simulations and the experimentally measured motion of the slinky mode in MST.

Unbalanced Regressions and Spurious Inference

Spurious regression has been extensively studied in time series econometrics since Granger and Newbold’s seminal paper. Recently, it has been advanced that this phenomenon is due to a mistreatment of short-range autocorrelation in the residuals of the regression when at least one of the variables in a bivariate regression is stationary. HAC errors, feasible GLS and Cochrane-Orcutt-type procedures are then proposed to draw correct inference. Such a proposal should be cautiously considered, since nonsense inference might also be due to deterministic trend mechanisms, structural breaks, and long range dependence. In these cases, standard autocorrelation correction procedures would not solve the problem of spurious regression. We aim to make the later argument clear.

COVID‑19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain:medium‑term relationship through dynamic regression models

The global pandemic,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),has significantly affected tourism,especially in Spain,as it was among the first countries to be affected by the pandemic and is among the world’s biggest tourist destinations.Stock market values are responding to the evolution of the pandemic,especially in the case of tourist companies.Therefore,being able to quantify this relationship allows us to predict the effect of the pandemic on shares in the tourism sector,thereby improving the response to the crisis by policymakers and investors.Accordingly,a dynamic regression model was developed to predict the behavior of shares in the Spanish tourism sector according to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium term.It has been confirmed that both the number of deaths and cases are good predictors of abnormal stock prices in the tourism sector.

COVID-19 mortality trends before and after the national vaccination program in Iran: A joinpoint regression analysis

Objective:To investigate the trend of mortality by COVID-19 before and after the national vaccination program using joinpoint regression analysis from 19 February 2020 to 5 September 2022.Methods:In the present study,a joinpoint regression analysis of monthly collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 in Iran from February 19,2020 to September 5,2022 was performed.Results:After national vaccination in Iran,the trend of new monthly deaths due to COVID-19 was decreasing.The percentage of monthly changes from the beginning of the pandemic to the 19th month was 6.62%(95%CI:1.1,12.4),which had an increasing trend.From the 19th month to the end of the 31st month,the mortality trend was decreasing,and the percentage of monthly changes was-20.05%(95%CI:-8.3,-30.3)(P=0.002).The average percentage of monthly changes was-5%with a 95%CI of(-10.5,0.9).Conclusions:Along with other health measures,such as quarantine,wearing a mask,hand washing,social distancing,etc.,national vaccination significantly reduces the mortality rate of COVID-19.

Fast Remaining Capacity Estimation for Lithium-ion Batteries Based on Short-time Pulse Test and Gaussian Process Regression

It remains challenging to effectively estimate the remaining capacity of the secondary lithium-ion batteries that have been widely adopted for consumer electronics,energy storage,and electric vehicles.Herein,by integrating regular real-time current short pulse tests with data-driven Gaussian process regression algorithm,an efficient battery estimation has been successfully developed and validated for batteries with capacity ranging from 100%of the state of health(SOH)to below 50%,reaching an average accuracy as high as 95%.Interestingly,the proposed pulse test strategy for battery capacity measurement could reduce test time by more than 80%compared with regular long charge/discharge tests.The short-term features of the current pulse test were selected for an optimal training process.Data at different voltage stages and state of charge(SOC)are collected and explored to find the most suitable estimation model.In particular,we explore the validity of five different machine-learning methods for estimating capacity driven by pulse features,whereas Gaussian process regression with Matern kernel performs the best,providing guidance for future exploration.The new strategy of combining short pulse tests with machine-learning algorithms could further open window for efficiently forecasting lithium-ion battery remaining capacity.

Optimizing slope safety factor prediction via stacking using sparrow search algorithm for multi-layer machine learning regression models

The safety factor is a crucial quantitative index for evaluating slope stability.However,the traditional calculation methods suffer from unreasonable assumptions,complex soil composition,and inadequate consideration of the influencing factors,leading to large errors in their calculations.Therefore,a stacking ensemble learning model(stacking-SSAOP)based on multi-layer regression algorithm fusion and optimized by the sparrow search algorithm is proposed for predicting the slope safety factor.In this method,the density,cohesion,friction angle,slope angle,slope height,and pore pressure ratio are selected as characteristic parameters from the 210 sets of established slope sample data.Random Forest,Extra Trees,AdaBoost,Bagging,and Support Vector regression are used as the base model(inner loop)to construct the first-level regression algorithm layer,and XGBoost is used as the meta-model(outer loop)to construct the second-level regression algorithm layer and complete the construction of the stacked learning model for improving the model prediction accuracy.The sparrow search algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the above six regression models and correct the over-and underfitting problems of the single regression model to further improve the prediction accuracy.The mean square error(MSE)of the predicted and true values and the fitting of the data are compared and analyzed.The MSE of the stacking-SSAOP model was found to be smaller than that of the single regression model(MSE=0.03917).Therefore,the former has a higher prediction accuracy and better data fitting.This study innovatively applies the sparrow search algorithm to predict the slope safety factor,showcasing its advantages over traditional methods.Additionally,our proposed stacking-SSAOP model integrates multiple regression algorithms to enhance prediction accuracy.This model not only refines the prediction accuracy of the slope safety factor but also offers a fresh approach to handling the intricate soil composition and other influencing factors,making it a precise and reliable method for slope stability evaluation.This research holds importance for the modernization and digitalization of slope safety assessments.

Remaining useful life prediction of aero-engines based on random-coefficient regression model considering random failure threshold

Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.