Characteristics of Dry and Wet Climate in Shandong Province Based on Standardized Precipitation Index

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 116 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during 1970-2021,standardized precipitation index(SPI)was calculated,and the methods of linear fitting,mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the change trend and temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of SPI index in the past 52 years.The results show that there were more normal years in Shandong Province,and the frequency reached 38.46%.There was severe drought in the 1980s and more wet years after 2003.SPI index showed an upward trend in spring,summer and winter but a weak arid trend in autumn.In addition,intense dry weather was more frequent in summer.Spatially,the climate was normal or humid in most areas of Shandong Province.The regions with more wet years were located in the central and northeast Shandong and the peninsula,while the climate was normal in the southwest and north of Shandong.The areas with more dry years were mainly located in the northwest of Shandong Province.There was mainly local and global drought in Shandong Province,and the arid area showed a decreasing trend.In the past 52 years,Shandong Province experienced quasi-4 times of alternation between dry and wet climate.The long period of 21 a was the first main period,and the climate would be still wet in Shandong Province in the future.In terms of mutation,the climate in Shandong Province became humid after 2003,and 2003 was the mutation point.After the abrupt change,the climate changed from gradually drying to wetting.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Quanzhou Based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Recent 55 Years

To analyze the characteristics of drought and flood variations in Quanzhou during recent 55 years, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) were calculated by using the monthly precipitation data from 6 meteorological bureaus across Quanzhou for 1960-2014. Results showed that: 1) During 1960-2014, the drought and flood showed Periodic variation characteristics in Quanzhou, the specific period of frequent drought was 1963-1972, 1977-1986 and 2009-2011, and the specific period of frequent flood was 1961-1962, 1972-1975, 1990-1992 and 1997-2007;the drought and flood did not have significant tendency of variation in Spring and Summer, and the drought and flood showed a non-significant downward trend in Autumn and Winter. 2) The drought and flood variation had relatively consistent trend in Quanzhou, but there was a big difference on the northwest mountainous area, the middle semi-mountainous area and the southeast coast area in some periods. 3) The precipitation cell and distribution in every season were Nan’an and Anxi, but there was a big difference in rainfall less area: it was Yongchun and Dehua in Spring, Chongwu and Jinjiang in Summer, Chongwu in Autumn, Dehua and Chongwu in Winter.

Spatiotemporal analysis of drought variability based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.

Drought trend analysis in a semi-arid area of Iraq based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index and Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought was a severe recurring phenomenon in Iraq over the past two decades due to climate change despite the fact that Iraq has been one of the most water-rich countries in the Middle East in the past.The Iraqi Kurdistan Region(IKR)is located in the north of Iraq,which has also suffered from extreme drought.In this study,the drought severity status in Sulaimaniyah Province,one of four provinces of the IKR,was investigated for the years from 1998 to 2017.Thus,Landsat time series dataset,including 40 images,were downloaded and used in this study.The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)and the Normalized Difference Water Index(NDWI)were utilized as spectral-based drought indices and the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)was employed as a meteorological-based drought index,to assess the drought severity and analyse the changes of vegetative cover and water bodies.The study area experienced precipitation deficiency and severe drought in 1999,2000,2008,2009,and 2012.Study findings also revealed a drop in the vegetative cover by 33.3%in the year 2000.Furthermore,the most significant shrinkage in water bodies was observed in the Lake Darbandikhan(LDK),which lost 40.5%of its total surface area in 2009.The statistical analyses revealed that precipitation was significantly positively correlated with the SPI and the surface area of the LDK(correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.72,respectively).The relationship between SPI and NDVI-based vegetation cover was positive but not significant.Low precipitation did not always correspond to vegetative drought;the delay of the effect of precipitation on NDVI was one year.

Drought and flood characteristics in the farmingpastoral ecotone of northern China based on the Standardized Precipitation Index

The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China(FPENC)provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China.Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can provide scientific support and practical basis for the protection of the FPENC.Based on monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations,we determined the changes in climate and the temporal and spatial variations of drought and flood occurrence in the FPENC during 1960-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Morlet wavelet transform,and inverse distance weighted interpolation method.Annual precipitation in the FPENC showed a slightly increasing trend from 1960 to 2020,with an increasing rate of about 1.15 mm/a.The interannual SPI exhibited obvious fluctuations,showing an overall non-significant upward trend(increasing rate of 0.02/a).Therefore,the study area showed a wetting trend in recent years.Drought and flood disasters mainly occurred on an interannual change cycle of 2-6 and 9-17 a,respectively.In the future,a tendency towards drought can be expected in the FPENC.The temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood differed in the northwestern,northern,and northeastern segments of the FPENC,and most of the drought and flood disasters occurred in local areas.Severe and extreme drought disasters were concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern segments,and severe and extreme flood disasters were mainly in the northeastern segment.Drought was most frequent in the northwestern segment,the central part of the northeastern segment,and the northern part of the northern segment.Flood was most frequent in the western part of the northwestern segment,the eastern part of the northeastern segment,and the eastern and western parts of the northern segment.The accurate evaluation of the degrees of drought and flood disasters in the FPENC will provide scientific basis for the regional climate study and critical information on which to base decisions regarding environmental protection and socio-economic development in this region.

Characteristics of Drought and Humidification Based on Standardized Precipitation Index in Weifang City during the Past 50 Years

[Objective] This study aimed to analyze the evolution characteristics and occurrence patterns of droughts and floods in Weifang City. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation data during 1961-2010 obtained from nine meteorological sta- tions of Weifang City, by using standardized precipitation index, monthly SPI index of Weifang City during the past 50 years was calculated to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought and humidification in Weifang City. [Result] The results showed that the variation of drought and humidification had stage characteristics in Weifang City, which was relatively humid in the 1960s and 1970s and developed from extremely humid in early 1960s to dry in late 1970s, persistent drought was observed throughout the range of Weifang City in the 1980s, and the variation tended to be smooth during the 1990s-2000s. Spatial distribution of drought and humidification in Weifang City showed certain regional characteristics. In the 1960s, the mid-west region of Weifang City was relatively humid, while the southeastern region was relatively dry; in the 1970s, there was little difference among the drought and humidification extent in each region; in the 1980s, each region of Weifang City was generally dry, specifically, drought in the southeastern region was the most severe, while drought in the northern region was the slightest; in the 1990s and 2000s, variation of drought and humidification in each region of Weifang City was basically the same. The uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipi- tation led to abnormal distribution of drought and humidification in some areas, such as the abnormal phenomenon in 1999; the spatial distribution of drought and humidi- fication duration in each generation had their own characteristics, which brought diffi- culties to the unified deployment of drought and flood control departments. [Conclu- sion] This study provided theoretical basis for the drought resistance, waterlogging prevention and disaster reduction in Weifang City under the background of climate change.

Meteorological Drought Detection and Forecast Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Univariate Distribution Models: Case Study of Bamako, Mali

As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, respectively.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought in the North-Eastern Coastal Region of Vietnam Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to reflect drought conditions in the North-Eastern coastal region of Vietnam. The drought events and their characteristics from 1981 to 2019 are detected at 9 meteorological stations and 10 Chirps rainfall stations. The spatio-temporal variation of drought in the study region is analyzed on the basis of the number, duration, severity, intensity, and peak of the detected drought events at the 19 stations. The results show that from 1981 to 2019 the drought events mainly occurred with 1-season duration and moderate intensity and peak. The number, duration, severity, and peak of the drought events were the greatest in the period 2001-2010 and were the smallest in the period 2011-2019. Among the 19 stations, the drought duration tends to decrease at 11 stations, increase at 7 stations, and has a slight variant at 1 station;the drought severity tends to decrease at 14 stations, increase at 4 stations, and has not a significant trend at 1 station;the drought intensity tends to decrease at 17 stations, increase at 1 station, and has a slight variant at 1 station;and the drought peak tends to decrease at 18 stations and increase at 1 station.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

Drought characteristics of Henan province in 1961-2013 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）, based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spa- tial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has oc- curred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has in- creased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, -26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Nino effect.

Drought analysis using multi-scale standardized precipitation index in the Han River Basin,China

Regional drought analysis provides useful information for sustainable water resources management.In this paper,a standardized precipitation index(SPI) at multiple time scales was used to investigate the spatial patterns and trends of drought in the Han River Basin,one of the largest tributaries of Yangtze River,China.It was found that,in terms of drought severity,the upper basin of the Han River is the least,while the growing trend is the most conspicuous;a less conspicuous growing trend can be observed in the middle basin;and there is an insignificant decreasing trend in the lower basin.Meanwhile,the impact of drought on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project was investigated,and it is suggested that water intake must be reduced in times of drought,particularly when successive or simultaneous droughts in the upper and middle basins of the Han River Basin occur.The results can provide substantial information for future water allocation schemes of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Standardized Precipitation Index in the Taihu Basin during 1951-2000

Spatial and temporal characteristics of standardized precipitation index （SPI）, which is widely used for drought/flood monitoring, are investigated in this study. The purpose is to obtain a reasonable primary scheme of zoning on the basis of drought/ wetness conditions in the study area. Spatio-temporal distributions of SPI with the time scales of 3 months and 12 months are investigated with the datasets of precipitation in the Taihu basin during past decades （1951-2000）. Results indicate that SPI series of 3 months show random fluctuation while that of 12 months behaves like I/f noise. SPI series of 3 months show little trend while that of 12 months show significant trend at several stations. Drought magnitude （DM） is also estimated on the basis of SPI values to assess drought condition. No trend is detected in DMs with time scales of both 3 months and 12 months. Spatial variability of DM is analyzed by mapping the DM with 12 months for extreme drought and wetness, and regional characteristics are analyzed for DM.

Using leaf area index(LAI) to assess vegetation response to drought in Yunnan province of China

Climatic extremes such as drought have becoming a severe climate-related problem in many regions all over the world that can induce anomalies in vegetation condition. Growth and CO2 uptake by plants are constrained to a large extent by drought.Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to drought across the various land cover types and different regions. Leaf area index(LAI) derived from Global Land Surface Satellite(GLASS) data was used to evaluate the response of vegetation to drought occurrence across Yunnan Province, China(2001-2010). The meteorological drought was assessed based on Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)values. Pearson's correlation coefficients between LAI and SPI were examined across several timescales within six sub-regions of the Yunnan. Further, the drought-prone area was identified based on LAI anomaly values. Lag and cumulative effects of lack of precipitation on vegetation were evident, with significant correlations found using 3-, 6-, 9-and 12-month timescale. We found 9-month timescale has higher correlations compared to another timescale.Approximately 29.4% of Yunnan's area was classified as drought-prone area, based on the LAI anomaly values. Most of this drought-prone area was distributed in the mountainous region of Yunnan.From the research, it is evident that GLASS LAI can be effectively used as an indicator for assessing drought conditions and it provide valuable information for drought risk defense and preparedness.

基于SPI-RRV指数中国气象干旱及其风险时空演变特征研究

为全面揭示变化环境下我国多维气象干旱特征,耦合气象干旱指数(SPI)和可靠性-回弹性-脆弱性(RRV)指数,提出了一种基于SPI-RRV指数的干旱风险评价方法,定量评价了中国气象干旱及其风险的时空演变特征。结果表明:SPI-RRV指数具有特征稳定和时空可比性强的特点,能够较为准确地评估气象干旱风险时空演变特征;南方平均干旱栅格比、干旱月占比和频次大于北方,湿润区和半湿润区干旱历时短、烈度大,半干旱区和干旱区干旱历时长、烈度相对较小;干旱高风险区转移具有显著年代际变化规律,空间上从西北向西南地区转移。

基于蒸散发干旱指数的子牙河流域干旱时空变化特征分析

为探究子牙河流域干旱时空分布特征,基于2001—2021年逐月降水和遥感蒸散栅格数据,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和标准化蒸散发亏缺指数(SEDI)表征流域干旱情况,运用Sen斜率估计和Mann-Kendall检验法分析了流域2001—2021年季尺度干旱时空分布及变化趋势,统计了干旱面积、干旱次数、干旱历时和干旱烈度等特征变量。结果表明:SPEI对子牙河流域旱情发生时间、程度和范围识别的准确率更高,2001—2021年流域SPEI呈上升趋势,表现出湿润化态势,冬季SPEI呈下降趋势,表现为干旱化态势,忻州、阳泉市等地存在显著干旱化的区域;流域各季节干旱面积占比呈现波动变化,部分年份出现大范围季节性干旱,夏旱和秋旱干旱面积占比最高,超过90%;忻州和阳泉市部分区域、石家庄市西部区域和衡水市北部区域呈现干旱次数少、历时长、烈度大的特点,邯郸和邢台市部分区域、衡水市南部区域、石家庄市东部区域表现为干旱次数多、历时短、烈度小的特征。

四川省极端高温干旱复合事件变化特征研究

根据四川省川东盆地山地区、川西高山高原区和川西南山地区三个分区40个气象站1961—2022年的逐日气象数据,通过极端高温阈值、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)计算研究区极端高温、干旱及复合事件的日数、强度,分析其变化趋势和空间分布特征,确定综合风险指数。研究结果表明:(1)高温、干旱及复合事件在三个分区上均呈现增加趋势,川西南山地区是高温干旱复合事件增加趋势最显著的地区。(2)从综合风险指数来看,时间上,整个研究区并发高温事件的年份较多,并发干旱事件的年份不多。21世纪以来,6—10月高温干旱复合事件影响整个研究区的年份较多,尤以2006和2022年综合风险指数最高;空间上,站点高风险指数主要分布于川东盆地山地区,为高温干旱复合事件防御重点区域。(3)2022年高温、干旱及复合事件异常分布具有区域一致性特性,三类事件发生日数、强度相对多年平均明显偏多。复合事件主要集中在7、8月份,川东盆地山地区是三类事件高值区的叠加中心,受高温干旱复合事件影响最大。

鄱阳湖流域气象干旱的区域性特征及干旱过程演变

基于1960—2020年鄱阳湖流域及周边29个国家气象站的连续观测资料,通过计算标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)并结合游程理论,研究分析了气象干旱的区域性特征及干旱过程演变。结果表明:①鄱阳湖流域月尺度气象干旱的发生频率为31.7%~34.8%,不同等级干旱发生频率的空间格局差异明显;②春、秋季节流域尺度SPEI呈现微弱下降趋势,干旱影响范围呈不显著的增加趋势,夏、冬季节情况与此相反;③就干旱区域性特征而言,鄱阳湖流域季节性气象干旱以全流域性干旱和局域性干旱为主(发生频率分别为29.5%和23.4%),区域性干旱和部分区域性干旱的发生频率(分别为10.7%和5.7%)相对较低;④游程理论揭示在过去的61 a间共发生50次流域尺度气象干旱事件,干旱事件的发生频次随干旱历时的增加显著减少,其中干旱历时最长的可达49个月;⑤流域尺度气象干旱事件的历时、峰值烈度以及总烈度的演变呈现较强的年代际波动特征;⑥干旱历时与总烈度之间存在显著的线性关系,与峰值烈度之间存在显著的幂函数关系,与平均烈度之间的相关关系不明显。这些研究结果明晰了鄱阳湖流域气象干旱的区域性特征与干旱过程演变,为合理开展流域气象干旱影响评估和制定防范策略提供科学依据。

中国中高纬地区植被物候对干旱的响应特征研究

植被物候直接影响其生物量,调控生态系统碳循环过程。目前,气候变化(尤其干旱)对中国中高纬度植被物候的影响依然不清楚。因此,文章基于GIMMS NDVI3g数据集,提取中国30°N以北地区中多种植被类型生长季的开始日期(Start of the Season,SOS)与结束日期(End of the Season,EOS)两物候参数。然后结合野外观测数据,验证提取物候参数结果可靠性,并结合饱和水汽压差(Vapor Pressure Deficit,VPD)与改进后的标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)探究植被物候对干旱的响应特征规律。结果表明:(1)不同地区的植被物候变化呈现明显的差异性,单季植被与双季植被第1个生长季的SOS集中在每年的第30~180天,而双季植被第2个生长季的SOS集中在每年的第200~220天。单季植被与双季植被第1个生长季的EOS主要集中在每年的第180~300天,双季植被第2个生长季的EOS主要集中在每年的第260~300天。(2)森林季前VPD的上升导致植被的SOS提前及EOS延迟;草地季前VPD上升导致植被的SOS滞后以及EOS提前。(3)研究区内大部分地区的SPEI与植被的SOS、EOS均呈正相关,即干旱促使该地区植被的SOS、EOS提前。

基于SPEI指数的淮北地区气象干旱时空特征研究

【目的】研究淮北地区1961—2022年气象干旱时空特征。【方法】采用淮北地区21个站点1961—2022年实测气象资料,计算月、季、年尺度各站点及区域平均标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),分析该区干旱发生频次、干旱趋势及干旱发生强度时空变化特征。【结果】(1)1961—2022年淮北地区月、季、年尺度SPEI呈下降趋势。(2)月尺度干旱场次及干旱平均持续时间呈逐年上升趋势,淮北站年均干旱场次最多(0.73次/年),泗县站干旱平均持续时间最长(4.61月/次),淮北站月尺度干旱风险最高。(3)春季、秋季呈不显著干旱化趋势,夏季、冬季呈不显著湿润化趋势;冬季干旱频率和干旱发生强度最高,分别为34.43%、21.86%;夏季局域性及其以上干旱频率最高;冬季全域性及其以上干旱频率最高;中东部及西南部春季干旱频率较高,东南部夏季干旱频率较低,东部和北部秋季干旱频率较高,西部和东北部、东南部边缘地区冬季干旱频率较高。(4)年尺度淮北地区呈不显著干旱化趋势(-0.01/10 a),干旱站次比逐年增加(1.4%/10 a);北部干旱化倾向较高,西部及东南部干旱发生强度较高,东北部及西南部干旱频率较高。【结论】淮北地区整体呈干旱化趋势,区域间干旱频率、干旱发生强度差异明显。

黄河流域非平稳气象干旱特征的重构及时空演变规律

气候变化和高强度人类活动影响下,基于平稳性假设的传统方法难以准确描述非平稳时间序列的演变规律。本文基于黄河流域1960—2020年逐月气象资料,采用自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解法和游程理论提取标准化降水蒸散指数的重构干旱特征,结合Pettitt法和旋转经验正交函数研究非平稳气象干旱时空特征。结果表明,多时间尺度黄河流域气象干旱均呈现显著性增强趋势,且各时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数序列均于1996年发生显著变化。考虑非平稳性的重构干旱特征时间上呈现出更为显著的季节性变化,空间上更符合流域实际情况。研究结果对厘清非平稳气象干旱时空演变规律具有重要意义,可为黄河流域防旱抗旱提供科学依据。