As a kind of mathematical model, grey systems predi ct ion model has been widely applied to economy, management and engineering technol ogy. In 1982, Professor Deng Ju-long presented GM prediction model. Then some o t...As a kind of mathematical model, grey systems predi ct ion model has been widely applied to economy, management and engineering technol ogy. In 1982, Professor Deng Ju-long presented GM prediction model. Then some o ther scholars made improvements on GM model. Of course, much still should be don e to develop it. What the scholars have done is to take the first component of X (1) as the starting conditions of the grey differential model. It occ urs that the new information can not be used enough. This paper is addressed to choose the nth component of X (1) as the starting conditions to improv e the models. The main results of the paper is given in Theorem 2: The time response function of the grey differential equation x (0)(k)+az (1)(k)=b is given by x (1)(k)=x (1)(n)-ba e -a(k-n )+ba. and Theorem4: The time response of the grey Verhulst model is given by (1)(k) =ax (1)(n)bx (1)(n)+(a-bx (1)(n))ae a(k-n). As the new information is fully used, the accuracy of prediction is improved gre atly. Therefore, the new model with a certain theoretical and practical value.展开更多
文摘As a kind of mathematical model, grey systems predi ct ion model has been widely applied to economy, management and engineering technol ogy. In 1982, Professor Deng Ju-long presented GM prediction model. Then some o ther scholars made improvements on GM model. Of course, much still should be don e to develop it. What the scholars have done is to take the first component of X (1) as the starting conditions of the grey differential model. It occ urs that the new information can not be used enough. This paper is addressed to choose the nth component of X (1) as the starting conditions to improv e the models. The main results of the paper is given in Theorem 2: The time response function of the grey differential equation x (0)(k)+az (1)(k)=b is given by x (1)(k)=x (1)(n)-ba e -a(k-n )+ba. and Theorem4: The time response of the grey Verhulst model is given by (1)(k) =ax (1)(n)bx (1)(n)+(a-bx (1)(n))ae a(k-n). As the new information is fully used, the accuracy of prediction is improved gre atly. Therefore, the new model with a certain theoretical and practical value.
